Asmara re-joined regional bloc in sustained effort to bolster international standing; President Isaias continued seeking closer ties with Russia.

Eritrea sought to bolster regional standing. Eritrea 12 June formally rejoined regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) after 16-year hiatus. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel same day said IGAD should play leading role in resolving Sudan crisis. High-level delegation led by FM Osman Saleh 13 June participated in 14th IGAD regular meeting in Djibouti.

President Isaias completed first official visit to Russia. President Isaias late May-early June made first official visit to Russia, held talks with President Putin on strengthening bilateral ties and agreed to participate in second Russia-Africa Summit in July. In interview with state-controlled TV channel Russia Today, Isaias 5 June supported Russia’s “right to defend itself” against “hegemonic forces … led by Washington” that have “declared war against humanity”, calling for “global solidarity” to forge new world order.

Eritrea’s efforts to bolster its international standing continued as President Isaias spoke out on Sudan conflict and strengthened ties with China, Russia.

President Isaias sought influence in addressing Sudan crisis. In 1 May interview with state media, President Isaias discussed conflict in Sudan, urging “an immediate end” to fighting and emphasising potential mediating role of neighbouring countries, including Eritrea; also advocated for Intergovernmental Authority on Development regional bloc to play support role. During meeting with Sudanese ambassador 12 May, Isaias denied allegations Asmara is cooperating with United Arab Emirates to provide sanctuary for fighters from Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Eritrea bolstered relations with China and Russia. President Isaias 14 May arrived in China for four-day state visit at invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping as countries sought to “enrich their strategic partnership”. Leaders held talks on bilateral cooperation, regional stability and global issues, with Xi saying China “is ready to work with Eritrea to advance mutually beneficial cooperation”. Isaias 30 May arrived in Russian capital Moscow for four-day official visit at invitation of Russian President Putin, who 31 May announced sides would soon sign various cooperation agreements.

Military delegation travelled to Ethiopia amid stepped-up regional engagement.

High-level delegation visited Ethiopia as Asmara sought to consolidate ties. Military delegation led by National Security Agency chief Abraha Kassa 3-5 April visited Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa. Possibly seeking to demonstrate strong bilateral ties following Ethiopia’s peace deal in Tigray, Minister of Information Yemane Gebremeskel 5 April said Ethiopian military chief Birhanu Jula praised Eritrea’s support during Tigray war, saying it “can never be compensated”, while Abraha Kassa 5 April said Eritrea’s “aspirations” are for “durable peace” in Ethiopia. Trust-building visit could presage further Eritrean troop withdrawals from Tigray region, provided Asmara is satisfied with progress on disarmament of Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

Engagement with other regional actors continued. Delegation led by FM Osman Saleh and Presidential Adviser Yemane Gebreab 3 April arrived in South Sudanese capital, Juba, meeting with country’s President Salva Kiir. Sides reportedly focused on bilateral ties and regional developments amid worrying deterioration in Sudan (see Sudan), as well as Eritrea’s interest in promoting “peace and reconciliation among the people of South Sudan”. Same delegation 11 April met with Kenyan President William Ruto in Kenya’s capital, Nairobi.

U.S. accused Ethiopian, Eritrean and Tigray forces of war crimes in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, Asmara worked to forge new alliances, and UN condemned Eritrea’s “dire” human rights situation.

U.S. accused Eritrea of crimes against humanity in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict. Following two-day trip to Ethiopia, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 20 March announced U.S. had determined that members of Ethiopian federal, Eritrean, Amhara and Tigray forces committed war crimes in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, and that members of Ethiopian federal, Eritrean and Amhara forces committed crimes against humanity (see Ethiopia); Asmara next day dismissed “unsubstantiated and defamatory accusations”.

Asmara continued to seek new alliances. President Isaias 28 Feb-1 March visited Saudi Arabia, 1 March held talks with Saudi Crown Prince and PM Mohammed bin Salman on “spectrum” of bilateral issues. Isaias 13 March received vice chair of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”, in capital Asmara. Somali President Mohamud 13-14 March visited Eritrea for third time since coming to power in May 2022. Stepped-up diplomatic efforts signalled Isaias’ resolve to prevent Eritrea’s isolation following Tigray peace deal in Ethiopia.

UN spotlighted “dire” human rights situation. UN human rights body 6 March accused Eritrea of committing serious human rights abuses against citizens with “complete impunity”, including military servitude, forced conscriptions, forced disappearances, arbitrary detention, torture and killings.

During two-day trip to Kenya, President Isaias discussed Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, strengthened ties with Nairobi and pledged to rejoin regional bloc.

Isaias spoke about war in Tigray during rare media briefing. President Isaias 8-10 Feb visited Kenya’s capital Nairobi, 9 Feb spoke to international journalists about Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict for first time since war broke out in 2020. Isaias dismissed as “fantasy” claims Eritrean soldiers committed atrocities in Tigray, sidestepping questions about accountability, significant losses and troop withdrawals from Tigray (Eritrean soldiers have mostly left region but small units remain in strategic positions in border areas). Isaias added Eritrea has “no intention of interfering” in Ethiopia’s peace process amid concerns it could act as spoiler. In separate interview conducted in Asmara, Isaias 12 Feb said it would have been “game over” for Tigray People’s Liberation Front had “Washington enablers” not saved it via peace deal.

Asmara agreed to strengthen ties with Kenya and pledged to rejoin regional bloc. During Kenya trip, President Isaias and Kenyan President Ruto pledged to strengthen bilateral ties, which have been strained since 2011 when Nairobi openly criticised Eritrea for its alleged support of Islamist insurgency Al-Shabaab. Leaders abolished visa requirements for respective countries’ citizens and Kenya agreed to open its embassy in Asmara. In signs Asmara may wish to end its isolation, Isaias also said Eritrea would rejoin regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development; however, Asmara’s conditions for rejoining a bloc it views as dominated by Ethiopia remain unclear.

Significant Eritrean troop withdrawals from Ethiopia’s Tigray region occurred after progress on Tigray’s disarmament; Russian FM met with President Afwerki to boost support for war in Ukraine.

Eritrean troops withdrew from most major cities in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Ethiopia’s federal govt and Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continued to make progress on implementing peace accord (see Ethiopia). Notably, Tigray’s forces 10 Jan began handing over heavy weapons to Ethiopia’s federal military. Within days, Eritrea withdrew its troops from most major cities in Tigray. Notably, news agency Reuters 21 Jan reported that troops had left Shire (North Western Zone), while other witnesses reported their withdrawal from Adwa (Central Zone) and Axum (North Western Zone). Senior Ethiopian military officer Teshome Gemechu 28 Jan claimed “there is no other security force in the Tigray region except the Federal Defence Forces”. However, Eritrean forces reportedly retained presence in outskirts of some urban areas and in rural areas. Since it is not party to peace accord, which stipulates withdrawal of foreign and non-federal troops from Tigray concurrent with heavy weapons handover, Eritrea may retain military presence in region until TPLF’s full disarmament. Meanwhile, Tigrayan reports of Eritrean attacks on civilians and looting of properties in region continued to emerge during month.

Russian FM met with Eritrean leader in capital Asmara. President Isaias Afwerki 26 Jan met Russian FM Sergei Lavrov in Asmara during Lavrov’s tour of Africa to bolster support for war in Ukraine; Minister of Information Yemane Meskel said discussions centred on “dynamics of the war in Ukraine and enhancement of bilateral ties on sectors of energy, mining, information technology, education and health”.

In significant development for Ethiopia’s delicate peace process, Eritrean forces began withdrawing from Tigray.

Asmara began withdrawing its forces from Tigray late Dec. Following news early Dec of continued Eritrean abuses in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, news agency Reuters 30 Dec reported that Eritrean troops had retreated from several towns in Tigray, including strategically important Shire and Axum towns, in Central and North Western zones (see Ethiopia). Reported withdrawal, which coincided with 29 Dec launch of African Union monitoring mission in Tigray, marks significant development in Ethiopia’s fragile peace process since Asmara’s stance remains crucial factor in implementing accord. Earlier in month, reports emerged of Eritrean forces looting and attacking civilians in Tigray’s north. Notably, senior Tigray official Getachew Reda 12 Dec alleged Eritrean soldiers were still carrying out “genocidal campaign”; media outlet Bloomberg late Nov accused Asmara of allowing its forces to continue attacking civilians, which Eritrean embassy in U.S. 5 Dec dismissed as little more than “crass disinformation”.

In other important developments. First batch of Somali troops, who have participated in controversial training program in Eritrea since 2019, 21 Dec returned to Somalia. Kenyan President Ruto 9-10 Dec visited Eritrea at invitation of President Isaias; leaders agreed to abolish visa requirements and cooperate on regional peace, security and development.

Asmara quietly consented to fragile peace accord between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray leaders, but could act as spoiler over disarmament protocols in coming weeks and months.

Asmara hinted at satisfaction with deal to resolve Tigray conflict. Following peace accord signed 2 Nov between Addis Ababa and Tigray leaders in South Africa’s capital Pretoria (see Ethiopia), Asmara remained silent, indicating its tacit acceptance of deal to end conflict despite not being party to accord. Meanwhile, its military activities in Tigray subsided although reports of ongoing Eritrean violence against civilians in Shire city and surrounding areas persisted during month.

Asmara could spoil peace process absent speedy implementation of disarmament protocols. Longstanding enmity between Tigray People’s Liberation Front and Asmara could coax latter to challenge implementation of accord if it feels Tigray’s leaders are backtracking on some political concessions, most notably promised reduction of Tigray’s military capabilities. Meanwhile, Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel 28 Nov criticised U.S. for endorsing African Union Envoy Olusegun Obasanjo’s comment that “no country should accept the presence of a foreign country on its land”, defending troop presence in Ethiopia as “defense architecture”.

Somalia’s president met Somali cadets during second visit to Eritrea this year. Somali President Mohamud 10-12 Nov visited Eritrea, second such trip since his election in May this year, signalling continued desire for cooperation. Mohamud 12 Nov met members of Somali National Army who have been undergoing military training in Eritrea since 2019; program, estimated to include about 5,000 cadets, has been shrouded in controversy regarding participants’ alleged deployment in Tigray. Mohamud 12 Nov returned to Somalia without Somali troops, suggesting he had again failed to convince Asmara to allow cadets to return to Somalia, possibly due to ongoing discussions over payments.

Eritrean and Ethiopian federal forces gained ground in Tigray, raising fears of mass atrocities against local population.

Ethiopian-Eritrean offensive gained ground in Tigray, fuelling fears of large-scale attacks on civilians. Eritrean forces continued supporting Ethiopia’s military and regional allies in Tigray after returning to frontline fighting early Sept. Eritrean troops fought Tigray’s forces in Tigray’s Eastern, North Western and Central zones throughout month, making significant advances. Notably, joint Ethiopian-Eritrean offensive 17 Oct drove Tigray’s forces from strategic Shire city (North Western Zone), after which they began pushing east from Shire toward Aksum and Adwa cities, and could threaten Tigray’s capital Mekelle (see Ethiopia). Battlefield advances of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, alongside potential for continued strong Tigray resistance, raised risk of Ethiopian and Eritrean forces escalating atrocities on civilians in Tigray, who largely back Tigray’s resistance led by Asmara’s long-standing rival, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrea 24 Oct accused humanitarian and media groups, as well as western govts, of “insinuating perpetration of ‘unspeakable atrocities’” to “rehabilitate the TPLF” for geopolitical interests.

Asmara rejected calls to withdraw its forces from Tigray. International actors condemned Eritrea’s military activities in Ethiopia and urged troop withdrawal. Notably, European Parliament 6 Oct accused Eritrea of “playing a destructive role in the Tigray conflict”; Asmara next day condemned “spurious accusations”. Australia, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, UK and U.S. 12 Oct published joint statement condemning “escalating involvement of Eritrean military forces in northern Ethiopia” and urging them to “cease their military operation and withdraw”. Asmara 15 Oct released second statement, accusing western countries of “wilfully harassing the victims of the TPLF” despite TPLF’s “acts of continued destabilisation of Eritrea”. As talks between Ethiopia’s federal and Tigray negotiators 25 Oct got underway in South Africa, concerns that Asmara will spoil any future peace process remained.

Following resumption of Tigray conflict in neighbouring Ethiopia late Aug, Eritrea once more became embroiled in fighting.

Eritrea joined Ethiopia’s federal forces in launching military offensives against Tigray’s forces. Following renewed hostilities 24 Aug in northern Ethiopia, Eritrea 1 Sept became heavily involved in frontline fighting once more, backing Ethiopia’s federal forces and allied militia amid longstanding enmity between Asmara and Tigray’s ruling party, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). According to Tigray authorities’ statement 1 Sept, Eritrean and federal forces launched major offensives from Eritrea in Tigray’s north, expanding conflict to new fronts (see Ethiopia). Reports 17 Sept emerged that govt was calling on reservists from armed forces to join fight. Tigray authorities 20 Sept accused Eritrea of launching “full-scale” offensive via multiple border crossings in Tigray’s north, marking further escalation; U.S. Special Envoy Mike Hammer same day condemned actions. Tigray authorities 27 Sept accused Eritrean forces of airstrike on Adi Daero town in region’s north west 25 Sept that killed five civilians.  Meanwhile, Asmara 16 Sept criticised European Union over 14 Sept statement, which accused Eritrea of “impeding ongoing efforts towards peace in Ethiopia”. Asmara said statement overlooked “fundamental causes” of war and insisted that TPLF continues to pursue longstanding policies of “territorial aggrandizement and ‘regime change’” in Eritrea through force. Desire to defeat TPLF and fear of Tigray invasion suggests Asmara will continue its military offensive and spoil any future peace process between Tigray and federal authorities that allows Tigray’s current military force to remain intact.

Asmara continued diplomatic engagement, notably with China. China’s Special Envoy to Horn of Africa Ambassador Xue Bing 16 Sept met with President Isaias Afwerki, stressing China’s readiness to contribute toward “regional efforts of conflict resolution and sustainable peace”. FM Osman Saleh 28 Sept held bilateral talks with his counterparts from Iran and Cuba; both meetings discussed strengthening bilateral ties.