CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Somalia

Crisis deepened over possible deployment of foreign peacekeepers to help transitional government (TG) return to Somalia (from Nairobi) and disarm warring factions. Bomb likely intended for African Union (AU) security team killed 2 in Mogadishu 17 February - a week after street protests against proposed AU/IGAD force, with some threatening “jihad” against troops from neighbouring countries with history of intervention. Ethiopia reaffirmed its interest in sending peacekeeping troops. Several warlords – now TG ministers – released joint statement 27 February rejecting contingents from Ethiopia or Djibouti. Transitional government PM Ghedi and President Yusuf delayed 10-day trip to Somalia amidst security concerns; eventually arrived in separate planes 24 February.

Africa

Somalia

MPs voted 168-79 to endorse PM Gedi’s cabinet 13 January, having rejected earlier cabinet December 2004; opened way for government relocation from Nairobi to Mogadishu. African Union (AU) promise of troops to bolster government, without detailing mandate or size, led to apparent split in government: President Yusuf requested 20,000-strong force, while PM Gedi said government has no plans to deploy foreign troops. Security worries brought to fore by Mogadishu shooting of General Yusuf Ahmed Sarinle, latest in string of assassinations apparently aimed at advocates of AU deployment and partners in Western counter-terrorism efforts. Transitional government said planned early February transfer would go ahead nonetheless.

Africa

Somalia

Nairobi-based transitional parliament asserted itself, passing no-confidence motion in government 11 December, claiming ministerial appointments unbalanced. Interim president re-appointed PM Gedi 2 days later; parliament accepted reappointment 23 December. Land disputes in central Somalia killed 100. Attempt to dock first ship since 1995 in Mogadishu prevented by mortar fire. 26 December tsunami killed over 100, hitting President Yusuf’s home Puntland region hard; government attempted to establish credentials through aid coordination.

Africa

Somalia

Professor Ali Muhammad Gedi named PM 3 November, starting 30-day period for naming and confirmation (by parliament) of cabinet; reconciliation and security top priorities. President Yusuf’s Nairobi residence attacked by unidentified assailants 16 November; government plans relocation to Mogadishu early 2005. President’s request to UN Security Council for 20,000 foreign troops rejected for time being. Norwegian Refugee Council estimated up to 400,000 IDPs in Somalia.

Africa

Somalia

Over 100 killed end October in clashes between Somaliland and Puntland forces around village of Adi-Addeye. Followed divisive election of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as Somali president 10 October. President Yusuf accused Somaliland of waging “all out war” of secession in letter to UN 29 October; Somaliland warned against infringement of borders by Yusuf, himself former president of neighbouring semi-autonomous Puntland. Yusuf elected to 5-year term, beating rival 189-79 in run-off; one third of parliament did not attend 14 October inauguration and groups including militant Islamists voiced opposition. Yusuf recognised president by neighbouring countries 15 October; called for 20,000 African Union (AU) peacekeepers to assist disarmament process; UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan suggested first security steps must be made by Somalis.

Africa

Somalia

Transitional parliament, inaugurated in Nairobi in August, elected Shariff Hassan Sheikh Adan speaker 15 September. Somali women complained parliament did not respect agreed quota for female members. Parliament delayed election of president until 10 October citing need for further preparation. Africa Union welcomed Somalia’s progress towards peace. Meanwhile, despite IGAD regional body warning, General “Morgan” sparked 3-day factional clashes Juba valley near Kismayo, killing 12, forcing 500 to flee to Kenya. Morgan returned to talks 27 September expressing support for peace-process and for parliamentary speaker Adan. Clashes between forces of self-proclaimed autonomous regions of Puntland and Somaliland reported 23 September in disputed Sool region.

Africa

Somalia

After multiple delays to current stage of peace process backed by regional mediator IGAD, Somalia inaugurated transitional parliament Nairobi 23 August, with 214 of 275 seats allocated. By month end only 17 seats (of 61 given to Darod clan) remained under discussion. UN Security Council condemned ongoing violations of Somalia’s arms embargo 17 August, extending Monitoring Group mandate 6 months.

Africa

Somalia

Somali national reconciliation conference failed to meet 30 July date for Nairobi inauguration of transitional parliament with hitches in allocating seats to Darod and Dir clans. Missed 31 July deadline for end of Phase III of peace process set by regional IGAD mediators, but discussions continue.

Africa

Somalia

Against background of ongoing militia violence, delegates meeting at IGAD Somalia reconciliation process in Nairobi agreed on Arbitration Committee to receive and arbitrate disputes relating to appointment of 275 members of new national parliament. Each of 4 major clans to have 5 members, and minor clans total of 5 members, in committee of 25. 12 appointed 22 June, remainder unclear due to absences from meeting and debate within Dir group. Clans will select MPs in next phase.

Africa

Somalia

Reconciliation conference sponsored by IGAD (regional association of 7 East African states) of 40 Somali groups and representatives of neighbouring countries started Nairobi 21 May after earlier attendance and financial worries. Interim leader Hassan initially refused to attend, planning rival talks in Jowhar, north of Mogadishu. Progress stalled since 29 January. IGAD ministers set July as target for end of talks threatening “punitive measures” against foot-draggers. Fighting between rival Mogadishu militias killed 100; ended 31 May.

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