CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

China/Japan

China angered by governor of Japanese state broadcaster’s speech 3 Feb in which he denied 1937 Nanjing massacre; Beijing called comments “barefaced challenge to international justice and human conscience”. U.S. Sec State Kerry 7 Feb reiterated commitment to defend ally Japan in case of escalation in East China Sea, affirmed non-recognition of China’s air defence identification zone after meeting Japanese FM in Washington; China stated U.S. should refrain from remarks that “harm regional stability and China-U.S. relationship”. Beijing 12 Feb expressed anger about Japanese move to seek compensation over 2010 ship collision in waters near Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. 3 Chinese coast guard vessels briefly entered disputed waters in East China Sea 23 Feb. U.S. Naval intelligence head mid-Feb claimed Chinese forces being trained to conduct “short, sharp war” against Japan; Pentagon later downplayed remarks. U.S.-Japan forces practiced island takeover during 4-week joint military drills. Chinese legislature 27 Feb designated 2 annual holidays to commemorate victory over Japan and Nanjing massacre. Japanese govt announced it will set up body to review 1993 Kono statement which apologised for its use of sex slaves during WWII.

Asia

China/Japan

Diplomatic dispute over Japanese PM Abe’s 26 Dec visit to Yasukuni shrine continued. Nearly 40 Chinese envoys worldwide took to local media to denounce Abe’s action as attempt to alter post-WWII world order; Japanese ambassadors criticised China as destabilising actor in region. Abe 22 Jan said “military expansion in Asia” must be restrained; compared China-Japan relations to Germany and UK before WWI, drawing rebuke from Chinese FM Wang who called Japan “troublemaker”, pointing to past aggression. During UNSC debate 29 Jan Chinese envoy said Abe’s Yasukuni visit “closed door to dialogue”. Japanese Self Defence Force held drill simulating recapturing island from enemy nation 12 Jan; Chinese vessels same day entered waters of disputed islands in East China Sea. China’s State Oceanic Administration confirmed increasing maritime forces with aircraft, patrol boats.

Asia

China/Japan

Japanese PM Abe visited Yasukuni Shrine 26 Dec drawing a swift rebuke from Beijing. Chinese FM Wang said Abe’s action erected a new and major political barrier to already severely strained Sino-Japanese relationship. U.S. VP Biden’s 2-7 Dec Asia trip dominated by talks over China’s new Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ); Biden reiterated that U.S. does not recognise zone, urged China and Japan to establish channels of communications, reaffirmed U.S. alliance with Japan, asked China’s President Xi to “show restraint”. S Korea 8 Dec announced it would expand its air defence zone (ADZ) for first time in 62 years, meaning China, Japan and ROK ADIZs overlap in East China Sea; China expressed “regret”. Referencing China’s ADIZ but avoiding naming it directly, Japan and ASEAN countries agreed to “enhance cooperation in ensuring freedom of movement in the skies” during mid-Dec summit in Tokyo. Japan 17 Dec adopted new National Security Strategy and increased military spending over next 5 years, citing as justification concerns over China; China strongly critical. Japan and S Korea conducted long-planned combined naval drill in area 11 Dec. Chinese FM Wang 16 Dec outlined China’s 2014 diplomatic priorities including “striving to settle territorial and maritime disputes with neighbouring countries” while safeguarding sovereignty.

Asia

China/Japan

China 23 Nov created “East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone” containing disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, announced defensive measures will be taken against aircraft not obeying Chinese rules. Japan described move as “escalation”; PM Abe said move “dangerous”, U.S. called it “destabilizing”, S Korea also protested. China responded angrily to criticism, lodging complaints with embassies. Japan, S Korea and U.S. all flew military aircraft through area in following days without incident; China 28 Nov sent military aircraft to patrol area. U.S. advised its civilian airlines to observe China’s air defence zone, Japan told its com- mercial flights to disregard China’s new rules. Japan held joint and combined military drills with U.S. early Nov with 34,000 troops, 6 vessels, 360 aircraft Abe’s security adviser 6 Nov said Japan should be able to apply its right to fight in collective self-defence to other allies as well as U.S.. Japan scrambled fighter jets after Chinese aircraft sighted near Diaoyu/Senkaku islands 16 Nov; 4 Chinese coast guard vessels sailed near disputed area same day. 180 Japanese businessmen visited Beijing 18-22 Nov to promote economic cooperation. Abe mid Nov visited Cambodia and Laos in bid to strengthen ties.

Asia

China/Japan

Beijing denied reports that China sent senior foreign ministry official to Japan for secret talks early Oct to repair frayed bilateral ties, though confirmed countries’ diplomats maintain communications; Japanese govt spokesman acknowledged countries maintained “dialogues and communications at various levels”. Following Sept meeting between Japanese PM Abe and Chinese President Xi at G20 summit, China declined second meeting at early Oct APEC summit in Bali. U.S. and Japan 3 Oct agreed to modernise defence alliance for first time in 16 years, citing growing concerns about DPRK’s nuclear program and other threats. Citing “increasingly insecure environment” PM Abe in speech to parliament 15 Oct proposed establishing security council within his office, and plans to reinterpret Article 9 of constitution to allow Japanese troops to fight when country’s allies are attacked; 26 Oct said Japan will stand up to China. Chinese analysts criticised Abe’s “aggressive” stance. Parliament 22 Oct approved plan allowing for interception of foreign drones in Japanese airspace. Chinese defence ministry 26 Oct said shooting down of Chinese drones would be seen as an act of war. China summoned Japanese ambassador in Beijing to express anger after over 100 Japanese MPs 17 Oct visited Yasukuni Shrine honouring WWII dead including war criminals; PM Abe refrained from visiting shrine, but made offering and expressed regret that he was unable to make trip; aide told media he is likely to visit before year-end.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions between China and Japan over Diaoyu/ Senkaku islands played out in skies: Japan scrambled fighter jets as Chinese govt aircraft neared disputed island airspace 26 Aug, causing approaching plane to retreat; again scrambled jets 8-9 Sept in response to 2 Chinese bombers flying through gap in Okinawa island chain, and unidentified drone approaching Diaoyu/Senkaku airspace from NW. Japan arrested Chinese sailor after collision in Japanese waters between two cargo ships 27 Sept in which 5 crew members of Japanese-registered ship killed, 1 missing. Chinese President Xi and Japanese PM Abe held impromptu meeting 5 Sept at G20 summit in St. Petersburg, first time leaders have met since Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute began Sept 2012. China increased its maritime presence around islands in days around 11 Sept anniversary of Japan purchasing islands. In response to increased Chinese activity, Japan’s top govt spokesperson 10 Sept suggested Japan station civil servants on islands. China showcased new guided missile frigate in East China Sea 1 Sept.

Asia

China/Japan

Tensions in East China Sea remain high. Newly-consolidated China Coast Guard 2 Aug dispatched 4 vessels to waters around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands for a record long stay prompting Tokyo to protest. Five fishing boats carrying over 20 Japanese activists sailed into disputed waters 18 Aug. Prospects for diplomatic thaw between China and Japan continue to appear dim. Japanese vice FM Saiki claimed presidential summit imminent after his late-July visit to Beijing; Chinese FM denied Saiki was received by any Chinese officials. China late-month dismissed possibility of leaders meeting at G20 summit early-Sept, accused Tokyo of “empty talk”. Japan 6 Aug launched largest warship since WWII, arousing suspicion in China, with its media saying destroyer is aircraft carrier in disguise. Japan says vessel remains in line with pacifist constitution. Anniversary of Japan’s WWII surrender 15 Aug saw PM Abe omitting commemoration/recognition of wartime damage inflicted on its Asian neighbours in his speech. Abe refrained from visiting controversial Yasukuni Shrine, but several members of his cabinet paid visits; Chinese govt summoned Japanese ambassador to protest. China’s PLA Navy launched 4-day exercise in Bohai and East China Seas.

Asia

China/Japan

Japan 7 July announced plan to launch 9 satellites to monitor foreign ship intrusions and counter piracy; followed report that 3 Chinese govt vessels had entered disputed Senkaku/ Diaoyu island waters. Japanese defence ministry 9 July issued Defence White Paper highlighting China as major security threat; China said Japan exaggerated threats to bolster calls for military expansion, reiterated its maritime activities comply with law. Japan reported Chinese naval fleet spotted sailing through Soya Strait for first time 14 July; ships were 5 of 7 that participated in joint naval exercises with Russia 5-12 July. Japan 24 July scrambled fighter jets after Chinese military aircraft flew near its southern islands. China 26 July reported its new coast guard confronted Japanese patrol vessels in waters surrounding disputed islands. Japanese PM Abe 26 July called for high-level meeting between Japan and China; Beijing accused Japan of using “empty slogans”. Japan’s vice FM Saiki in Beijing 29-30 July for talks. Japanese defence review paper late month said Japan should bolster marine force, introduce surveillance drones. China confirmed exploration activities in East China Sea after Japan protested construction projects near “median line”; Japan 3 July said does not accept “unilateral development” in areas where countries have overlapping claims; China stated all exploration activities and plans within areas under its administration. State-run Chinese oil and gas firm announced proposal to develop new fields in disputed waters.

Asia

China/Japan

Tokyo denied existence of 1972 agreement with China to shelve Diaoyu/Senkaku islands dispute, dismissing 3 June statement by former chief cabinet secretary Hiromu Nonaka. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Deputy Chief of Staff 2 June said May claim by Chinese scholars that Ryukyu islands belonged to China is not official position, situation different than Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. Also said China privileges one-on-one talks for maritime disputes, “opposes moves by U.S., Japan and other states to team up against China”. PLA’s General Political Department director 7 June met with Japan’s Forum on China’sPolitics and Economy delegation led by former Japanese Self-Defense Force navy commander; both advocated for settlement of differences and disputes through cooperative dialogues. Japan’s former Vice FM Shotaro Yachi unofficially visited Beijing in effort to improve relations. Chinese vessels spotted in disputed waters  off islands throughout month.

Asia

China/Japan

Chinese foreign ministry 27 April said disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands part of China’s core interests. Japanese and Chinese officials met in Beijing 28 April to discuss measures aimed at avoiding accidental military clashes in East China Sea (ECS), in first official contact between countries’ defence departments since Japanese govt purchased disputed islands Sept 2012. Chinese presence in disputed waters off islands continued. China Ocean Development Report 9 May said China intends to increase offshore patrols of South China Sea and ECS. Foreign Ministry statement said that Chinese claims to islands are consistent with international law. Chinese scholars writing in People’s Daily 8 May questioned Japanese sovereignty over Ryukyu islands, annexed by Japan in 1900s. Analysts interpreted article as attempt to raise stakes in ECS dispute; Japan lodged diplomatic protest. People’s Liberation Army General Luo Yuan 15 May stated Ryukyu islands do not belong to Japan. Japanese Defence Ministry reported unidentified submarine cruised waters near Okinawa, PM Abe 14 May said submerged submarines entering Japanese waters to be met with military force, Defence Minister said submarine identified, Japan will call for “such encroachments to cease”. Chinese PM Li Keqiang 26 May said Japan should “return all occupied territories”.

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