In most serious challenge ever to Putin’s grip on power, Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin spearheaded insurrection, advancing within 200km of capital before abruptly aborting mission.

Wagner leader left Russia after short-lived mutiny rocked country. Amid months of escalating tensions between military leaders and head of paramilitary Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin, most recently over attempts to bring Wagner forces under military command structure, Prigozhin 23 June claimed defence ministry had killed around 30 Wagner fighters at a camp in Ukraine and vowed to topple military leadership. In dramatic escalation that raised questions about stability of Putin’s rule, Wagner forces 23-24 June entered southern Rostov-on-Don city, seizing control of key sites before advancing toward capital Moscow in armoured convoys, passing through Voronezh city. Putin 24 June decried Prigozhin’s “betrayal” and vowed to punish those involved as Wagner mercenaries shot down six helicopters and military airplane, killing 13. As Prigozhin’s forces entered Moscow region, he abruptly called off rebellion and reportedly went into exile following negotiations allegedly brokered by Belarussian leader Aleksandr Lukashenka (see Belarus). Kremlin same day said it would not prosecute Wagner members or Prigozhin; Putin 26 June said Wagner mercenaries can either go to Belarus or sign contract with Ministry of Defence.

Attacks on Belgorod persisted. Ukrainian shelling and attacks by Ukraine-aligned Russian combatants continued to target southern Belgorod region. Notably, combatants 1 June shelled Shebekinsky town, prompting evacuations from there and other vulnerable districts. Putin 13 June suggested he could order troops to seize more land in Ukraine to create “sanitary zone” protecting Russia from attack. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 20 June accused Kyiv of plans to strike Russia with U.S.-made HIMARS and UK-made Storm Shadow Missiles, warning this would be considered “full-fledged [Western] involvement” and promising “retaliation”. Meanwhile, Putin 16 June announced first tactical nuclear weapons had arrived in Belarus (see Belarus).

Crackdown on dissent continued. Anti-war activist Anatoly Berezikov 14 June died in detention centre in Rostov-on-Don; his lawyer hinted death could be result of torture. Trial against imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who faces extremism charges, 19 June began behind closed doors. Authorities 21, 28 June declared World Wildlife Fund and news outlet Novaya Gazeta Europa, respectively, “undesirable”.

Ukraine-aligned Russian combatants staged cross-border incursion, while large-scale drone attack targeted capital; more subversive activities and attacks on Russian territory expected as Ukraine war continues.

Cross-border raid from Ukraine sparked violence, multiple drones struck capital. Governor of Belgorod region (which borders Ukraine) 22 May said Ukrainian “sabotage group” had infiltrated region, announced “counter-terrorist operation”. Authorities evacuated villages coming under fire as attackers reportedly took control of several locations. Defence ministry 23 May said Russian troops used “airstrikes, artillery fire and active action” to repel invaders. Two groups that claimed responsibility reportedly are comprised mostly of far-right Russian nationals tied to Ukrainian military intelligence, which may have coordinated attack; Kyiv denied involvement. More subversive activities expected in coming weeks and months as Ukraine war continues. Meanwhile, presumably Ukrainian shelling of Russia rose sharply, mostly affecting Belgorod but increasingly targeting capital, Moscow. Series of drone strikes 30 May marked most significant attack on Moscow since full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Wagner Group’s feud with top military brass escalated. Head of paramilitary Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin 5 May threatened to withdraw from Ukrainian city of Bakhmut amid ammunition shortages, 9 May claimed defence ministry had threatened to qualify move as treason. Politician and former commander Viktor Sobolev 15 May branded Wagner “an illegal armed formation”; three Wagner mercenaries next day threatened to rape Sobolev. Prigozhin 31 May called on prosecutors to investigate possible “crimes” committed by senior defence officials before and during Ukraine war.

Western states imposed sanctions, finance ministry recorded huge deficit. During Japan summit, G7 leaders 19 May promised more measures against Russia and those who support its war effort; several Western countries and Russia same day imposed tit-for-tat sanctions. Meanwhile, finance ministry 10 May recorded 3.4tn ruble deficit in first four months of 2023; in same period in 2022, authorities recorded 1.2tn deficit.

Repression of dissent continued. Court in Moscow 5 May ordered two-month pre-trial detention for two artists accused of “justifying terrorism” in play about Russian women who joined Islamic State. Authorities 19 May designated environmental organisation Greenpeace “undesirable”. Authorities 23 May extended pre-trial detention of U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich by three months.

Govt sought to clamp down on draft-dodgers with new conscription law, repression of dissent continued, and Ukraine launched more drone strikes in Russian borderlands.

Govt tightened conscription legislation. President Putin 14 April signed new legislation providing for digital register of all Russian citizens eligible for military service, which could help authorities expedite mobilisation activities and prevent conscripts from fleeing abroad. Specifically, law allows authorities, previously required to deliver in-person notices to those eligible for military service, to issue electronic draft orders; it also bans citizens from leaving country when they receive such order. Those who fail to appear at registration office within 20 days without valid reason could face new restrictions related to banking, selling property, driving and registering vehicles. Meanwhile, defence ministry 1 April launched regular spring conscription; 30 April announced it had replaced deputy defence minister Mikhail Mizintsev with Alexei Kuzmenkov.

Crackdown on opposition continued. In harshest judgement for opposition activist since Putin came to power, Moscow court 17 April handed politician Vladimir Kara-Murza 25-year prison sentence for spreading disinformation about army and treason; State Duma next day approved amendments allowing life sentences for treason. Imprisoned opposition leader Alexey Navalny 26 April said military tribunal opened “terrorism” case against him, which could see him imprisoned for up to 30 years. Authorities throughout month declared several foreign NGOs “undesirable organisations” and “foreign agents”.

Pro-war blogger assassinated, Ukraine launched more attacks into Russia. In Saint Petersburg city, explosion in cafe owned by paramilitary Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin 2 April killed war correspondent known as Vladlen Tatarsky; authorities next day arrested Russian citizen and accused Ukrainian special services of planning “terrorist attack”. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones 4, 18 April hit military offices in Bryansk region; 17 April struck two power stations in Belgorod region. In Moscow region, authorities 24 April found drone containing explosives.

Defence minister announced plans to boost combat readiness of Central Asian bases. Speaking at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 28 April announced plans to increase combat readiness of its military bases in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, saying U.S. efforts to strengthen its presence there triggered move.

Authorities arrested U.S. journalist on espionage charges in worrying escalation of Russia’s media crackdown; rumours swirled of forthcoming mobilisation.

Authorities arrested foreign journalist as crackdown continued. In worrying sign for foreign journalists working in Russia, security services 30 March detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, a U.S. citizen, on suspicion of espionage, first such case since Cold War; court same day ordered his pre-trial detention until 29 May. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken condemned “Kremlin’s continued attempts to intimidate, repress and punish journalists and civil society voices”; U.S. same day urged its citizens to immediately leave country. Meanwhile, President Putin 18 March tightened punishment for “discrediting” or spreading misinformation (“fakes”) about volunteer forces – such as Wagner Group; criminal code already prohibits “fakes” about Russian army. Court in Tula region 28 March sentenced single father to two years in prison for “discrediting” Russian army and placed his daughter in orphanage. Authorities throughout month declared several foreign NGOs and think tanks “undesirable organisation[s]”, 20 March ordered liquidation of Moscow-based SOVA think-tank.

Prospect of second mobilisation loomed. Authorities in at least 43 regions summoned individuals military deems subject for mobilisation to military offices throughout month, citing need to update contact information, digitise personal data and conduct military training, fuelling speculation authorities could announce second mobilisation for Ukraine war.

International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrant for Putin. ICC 17 March issued arrest warrant for President Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova for “war crime of unlawful deportation” of children from occupied territories in Ukraine to Russia. Kremlin same day called decision “outrageous” and noted that Russia does not recognise court’s jurisdiction. Russian Investigative Committee 20 March opened criminal case against ICC prosecutor and three judges.

In other important developments. Russia and Ukraine 18 March agreed to extend UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal by 60 days. Chinese President Xi Jinping 20 March arrived in capital Moscow for three-day visit, during which leaders reaffirmed close ties and readiness to promote “multipolar world”. Putin 25 March announced plans to store tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus (see Belarus).

Putin suspended participation in key nuclear arms treaty, Ukrainian shelling of Russia continued, and Western states imposed more sanctions.

Putin suspended participation in key arms treaty with U.S. In state-of-the-union address delivered days before one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Putin 21 Feb announced suspension of Russia’s participation in 2010 New START Treaty (last arms control treaty in force between Russia and U.S.), which could portend end of arms control system established during Cold War and built upon since. Putin also said “the more long-range Western systems are delivered into Ukraine, the further we’ll have to push the threat from our borders”.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory continued. Putin 1 Feb said preventing Ukrainian strikes on Russia was “priority task”, though cross-border attacks continued. Notably, governor of Bryansk region 3 Feb said Russian air defences shot down four Ukrainian rockets in Starodubsk municipality; governor of Belgorod region 19 Feb reported child killed in Novaya Tavolzhanka village. Series of drone attacks 27-28 Feb occurred in six regions, striking oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai region. Meanwhile, founder of paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, 20 Feb accused officials of denying his fighters sufficient ammunition for Ukraine war and admitted having uneasy relations with people “at the top”.

Persecution of war opponents persisted. Court in Barnaul city 15 Feb sentenced journalist Maria Ponomarenko to six years in prison for spreading disinformation, or “fakes”, about army. Russian Investigative Committee chairman 20 Feb said authorities had opened 152 criminal cases against individuals for “fakes” since invasion of Ukraine. Police 24 Feb reportedly detained at least 54 people in 14 cities at protests on anniversary of Ukraine war.

West and Russia imposed more tit-for-tat sanctions. Western states continued to impose sanctions throughout month; European Union 25 Feb introduced tenth sanctions package. Deputy PM Alexander Novak 10 Feb announced Russia would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day starting in March. Meanwhile, media outlet The Financial Times 6 Feb reported that at least 16 Iranian “ghost” ships, previously used to breach U.S. sanctions, have begun shipping Russian oil since Group of Seven imposed price cap.

Govt shuffled military command, lawmakers and medical professionals decried imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s treatment, and Western states and Moscow imposed tit-for-tat measures. 

Govt made changes to military command and sketched out army reforms. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 11 Jan appointed Valery Gerasimov commander of Joint Group of Forces; Gerasimov will lead war in Ukraine, replacing Sergei Surovikin who is now Gerasimov’s deputy. Fourth shuffle of Russia’s command structure since Feb invasion indicates Moscow may be preparing new offensive in Ukraine. Shoigu 17 Jan revealed new details about planned military reforms from 2023-2026; changes include forming army corps in Karelia region near Finland, creating new force groupings in occupied areas of Ukraine and strengthening combat capabilities of Navy, Air and Space Forces, and Strategic Missile Forces. Meanwhile, reports 19 Jan began emerging of authorities deploying air defence systems atop several defence and administrative buildings in Moscow, suggesting Kremlin is preparing for possible future attacks on capital.

Concern grew over treatment of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Navalny’s lawyer 9 Jan warned of politician’s deteriorating health at penal colony in Vladimir region; 481 doctors next day signed open letter to President Putin demanding end to abuse and provision of medical care. By 20 Jan, over 80 current and former lawmakers had signed appeal urging end to unjustified disciplinary punishments for Navalny and provision of adequate medical assistance. Meanwhile, crackdown on media and NGOs continued. Notably, Moscow City Court 25 Jan ruled to liquidate Moscow Helsinki Group, Russia’s oldest human rights organisation; General Prosecutor’s Office 26 Jan declared media outlet Meduza “undesirable organisation”.

Western countries and Russia imposed tit-for-tat measures. Head of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen 17 Jan announced plans to introduce tenth sanctions package against Russia in Feb; Russia same day sanctioned number of European Union security agencies’ leaders, businesses and individuals helping provide military assistance to Ukraine. Moscow 23 Jan ordered Estonian ambassador to leave Russia by 7 Feb; Lithuania and Latvia same day ordered Russian ambassadors to leave their countries and recalled their ambassadors. U.S. Treasury Dept 26 Jan declared Russian paramilitary Wagner Group a transnational criminal organisation.

Govt announced reforms to army, crackdown on dissent continued, and Ukraine struck military bases hundreds of miles inside Russia.

Authorities announced reforms to strengthen military. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 21 Dec announced increase in maximum number of army servicemen from 1.15mn to 1.5mn. Shoigu also proposed changes to conscription age – currently between 18 and 27 – to 21 and 30 and outlined plans to form new military units. He added that “priority” task for 2023 is continuing “special military operation until its full completion”. Meanwhile, President Putin 9 Dec said Russia could abandon “no first use” nuclear doctrine; Kremlin 12 Dec clarified that Russia does not intend to take “quick actions”.

Crackdown on opposition persisted. Court in Moscow 9 Dec sentenced politician Ilya Yashin to over eight years in penal colony for spreading disinformation about Russian army. Justice ministry 20 Dec filed lawsuit to liquidate Moscow Helsinki Group, Russia’s oldest human rights organisation. Prosecutor general’s office 22 Dec declared NGO Russian Anti-war Committee in Sweden “undesirable organisation”. Police 29 Dec arrested politician Mikhail Lobanov. Meanwhile, law expanding definition of “foreign agent” to include any individual or organisation that is “under foreign influence” 1 Dec entered into force.

Ukraine launched strikes deep into Russia. Authorities 5 Dec accused Ukraine of attacking air bases in Saratov and Ryazan regions, which killed three and damaged several aircrafts; Kyiv acknowledged attacks but did not publicly claim responsibility. Attacks on military bases hundreds of miles inside country reveal Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, which Russia’s air defence appeared unprepared for (see Ukraine). Further strikes on air base near Saratov 26 Dec, although reportedly intercepted by Russian air defence, killed three. Meanwhile, Belgorod and Kursk regional governors 6 Dec announced formation of “territorial defence units” amid continued Ukrainian shelling in border regions.

In other important developments. Group of Seven 3 Dec agreed to price cap of $60 per barrel of Russian oil, which 5 Dec came into force; Moscow 4 Dec said it would not sell gas to any country participating in cap. Meanwhile, U.S. 9 Dec accused Russia of providing Iran with “unprecedented” level of military assistance in exchange for drones.

Authorities introduced new laws on military service as tensions within army surfaced, Ukrainian shelling continued, and ties with Iran deepened.

President Putin gave updates on mobilisation drive, authorised new laws on military service. Following Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu’s announcement late Oct that 300,000 people had been mobilised for war in Ukraine, Putin 4 Nov said additional 18,000 soldiers had been mobilised and that 49,000 were engaged in combat activities. No official decree has been issued to end mobilisation despite reaching declared goal of 300,000 soldiers, enabling future mobilisation drives. Putin 4 Nov signed law allowing authorities to mobilise citizens convicted of serious crimes, including murder and robbery; decree exempts crimes such as espionage, terrorism and sexual crimes against minors. Putin 14 Nov signed additional decree allowing foreign citizens to be drafted.

Russian army faced backlash over poor leadership and logistical problems. Over 100 people 1 Nov held protest in western Ulyanovsk city against lack of payments to conscripts, following day announced “total strike” until payments are made. Videos 5 Nov emerged showing soldiers in south-western Kazan city decrying poor conditions and lack of proper training, uniforms and weapons. Soldiers from southern Tomsk city 18 Nov held rally, criticising commanders’ lack of leadership and poor training. Meanwhile, members of Council of Mothers and Wives, which demands return of mobilised relatives from front lines, 14 Nov held protest rally in St. Petersburg city, 22 Nov proposed meeting with Putin; Putin 25 Nov held meeting, but did not invite any member who opposes war and criticises military leadership.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory persisted. Shelling continued near border with Ukraine throughout Nov. Notably, authorities in Belgorod region 15 Nov reported two killed in Shebekino town, 18 Nov said shelling killed one in Valuiki city. Ukrainian naval drone 18 Nov attacked Sheskharis oil terminal and naval base in Novorossiysk.

In other important developments. Media outlet The Washington Post 19 Nov reported that Moscow had struck deal with Tehran to produce Iranian drones in Russia. U.S. 10 Nov revoked Russia’s market economy status, European Union 23 Nov designated Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, and UK 30 Nov sanctioned 22 Russian officials.

President Putin introduced new threat-level system across country, crackdown on opposition continued, and Moscow deepened military cooperation with Iran.

Govt introduced new security regime. In signs Russia is preparing for protracted conflict with Ukraine, Putin 19 Oct declared martial law in four annexed Ukrainian regions (see Ukraine) and introduced various “response levels” across Russia. System differentiates depending on threat level in particular regions. Notably, Putin introduced “medium response level” in annexed Crimea and regions bordering Ukraine such as Belgorod, which has seen continued shelling from Ukraine and which 16 Oct encountered “terrorist attack” at military site that killed 11 soldiers. “Medium level” decree gives local authorities right to organise economic mobilisation, ban movement for residents and support military services. Putin also announced new “Coordination Council” to increase supply of weapons and equipment, as well as medicines, food and salaries, to military.

Partial military mobilisation completed. Following Sept “partial military mobilisation” announcement, which prompted rallies across country and mass exile, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu 28 Oct announced 300,000 people had been mobilised, of whom 41,000 have been deployed to military units in Ukraine. Authorities reported around 11 cases of arson during month at military enlistment offices, but overall protest activity decreased.

Crackdown on opposition persisted. Court in Moscow 18 Oct sentenced local resident Pavel Pischulin to two months of pre-trial arrest for “cooperating with foreign state”, first known criminal case handed down for working with foreign govt. Imprisoned opposition leader Alexey Navalny 20 Oct said authorities had opened another criminal case against him for “promoting terrorism”. Former presidential candidate and journalist Ksenia Sobchak 26 Oct became suspect in extortion case against Rostec State Corporation; Sobchak same day left country. News 27 Oct emerged that authorities opened first criminal case against individual for failing to obey wartime order.

In other important developments. EU 6 Oct adopted eighth sanctions package, aimed at “depriving the Kremlin’s military and industrial complex of key components and technologies and Russia’s economy of European services and expertise”. U.S. newspaper The Washington Post 16 Oct reported that Iran agreed to secretly transfer short-range ballistic missiles to Russia.

President Putin announced partial mobilisation, prompting hundreds of thousands to flee, and pledged to annex parts of Ukrainian territory; political volatility and border insecurity could increase in coming weeks.

Putin announced partial military mobilisation, fuelling protests and mass exile. Following Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in which it recaptured swathes of territory from Russian forces (see Ukraine), Putin 21 Sept announced partial mobilisation and threatened nuclear escalation. Anti-mobilisation rallies same day erupted across country, including in Russian national republics such as Dagestan and Chechnya. According to OVD-Info, around 2,414 people were detained 21-26 Sept. Over 20 military enlistment offices were torched and over 260,000 Russians had fled country by late Sept. Meanwhile, Putin 30 Sept annexed four only partly occupied regions in Ukraine – biggest annexation in Europe since World War Two – saying “we will defend our land with all our strength and all our means” (see Ukraine). U.S. same day sanctioned hundreds of individuals.

Municipal deputies demanded Putin’s resignation, opposition crackdown continued. Ten deputies from Smolninskoye municipal council in Saint Petersburg 7 Sept appealed to State Duma to remove Putin from office and charge him with treason. Deputies from Moscow’s Lomonosovsky municipal council next day urged Putin to resign. Municipal deputy from Saint Petersburg 12 Sept started petition demanding Putin’s resignation; as of 28 Sept, 75 municipal councillors had signed petition. District court in Saint Petersburg 13 Sept approved dissolution of Smolninskoye municipal council. Meanwhile, court in Moscow 14 Sept sentenced opposition politician Leonid Gozman to 15-day jail term for 2013 publication “equating” Soviet-era Russia with Nazi Germany. Ministry of justice 16 Sept labelled comedian Maxim Galkin “foreign agent” for protesting Ukraine war.

Russian energy company said major gas pipeline to Europe closed indefinitely. G7 finance ministers 2 Sept agreed to price cap on Russian oil exports. Announcement followed Deputy PM Alexander Novak’s threat 1 Sept that Russia would cease oil and gas supplies to countries that impose such caps. Gazprom 2 Sept announced Nord Stream 1 pipeline supplying gas to Europe would remain closed indefinitely. Four gas leaks were detected 26-29 Sept in Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines; NATO 29 Sept said leaks were “result of deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts of sabotage”.