Uganda suffered deadliest attack in years as Islamist militia launched raid on school near Congolese border, killing dozens.

Deadly attack on school undermined faith in security forces. Armed assailants overnight 16-17 June raided secondary school in Mpondwe town near border with DR Congo, killing at least 44 people, mostly children, and abducting several others. Authorities immediately blamed attack on Islamic State-linked Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) militia based in eastern DR Congo and deployed reinforcements to border area; security forces 18-20 June rescued three kidnapped students and arrested at least 20 people, including school director and head teacher, for alleged collaboration with ADF. As lack of timely intervention despite presence of police and army posts in school’s direct vicinity raised concern, opposition figures including Abdallah Kiwanuka 21 June called for repatriation of Ugandan troops deployed abroad to improve security at home. Meanwhile, after deadly raid on Ugandan contingent of African Union transition mission in Somalia in late May, reports emerged of low troop morale and frustration over ageing equipment and pay gaps.

Random shootings by security personnel continued. Following last month’s spat of gun violence, security guards 4-6 June shot at least three people, leaving one dead and two injured.

In other important developments. After President Museveni late May enacted law punishing homosexuality with death penalty in some cases, rights groups early June urged World Bank to suspend loans to Uganda, and U.S. 16 June announced visa restrictions on individuals “undermining the democratic process” in Uganda.

Assassination of minister by bodyguard headlined month of multiple killings involving security personnel.

Spate of shootings put spotlight on gun violence and weak weapons control system. Bodyguard 2 May shot and killed Labour Minister Charles Okello Engola at his home in capital Kampala. Also in Kampala, unidentified assailants 6 May shot influential vlogger Ibrahim Tusubira (alias Isma Olaxes) dead. Several other incidents of fatal gun violence involving police or private security guards reported in May throughout country. Meanwhile, authorities in Kayunga district said they were investigating 15 May robbery in which four gunmen in army uniforms set up illegal roadblocks near police station and robbed travellers.

Cattle-related violence in Karamoja sub-region remained on govt’s agenda. Military around 11 May deployed additional troops in Karamoja sub-region bordering Kenya and South Sudan, where army continues disarmament exercise in bid to contain cattle thefts and herder-farmer violence. Following recent instances of cross-border violence, President Museveni 19 May inked executive order banning armed Kenyan Turkanas from entering Uganda and asking Turkanas both to return all “stolen” cattle to Uganda and to surrender those alleged to have killed Ugandan geologists in March within six months; pastoralists from Kenya’s Turkana county often cross into Uganda’s Karamoja sub-region during dry spell in search of water and pasture.

In other important developments. Civil society activists 22-28 May held online campaign to highlight brutality and corruption in police and other law enforcement agencies, as well as to expose service provision weaknesses in roads and health sectors. House committee 23 May presented recommendations on iron sheets corruption scandal, calling for three of 15 top officials suspected of involvement to be put on trial. Museveni 29 May enacted repressive anti-LGTB+ law, sparking widespread condemnation. Notably, U.S. President Biden same day decried move as “tragic violation” of human rights.

Far-reaching iron sheets corruption case resulted in arrest of govt officials; military reported progress against armed groups in eastern DR Congo.

Iron sheets corruption case continued to engulf govt. Authorities 4-18 April detained and charged Karamoja affairs minister, Mary Goretti Kitutu, her deputy Agnes Nandutu, and finance minister, Amos Lugoloobi, for allegedly diverting iron sheets that were part of $10mn relief package originally intended for locals in Karamoja sub-region. President Museveni 3 April pledged to “take political action” against govt officials found guilty of “theft”.

Authorities cracked down on Kenyan herders, causing tension with Nairobi. Ugandan forces 8 April conducted raid against Kenyan nationals suspected to be holding guns in Moroto district; Kenya claimed seven killed while Uganda confirmed one death and six injuries. Additionally, Ugandan military court around 12 April sentenced 32 Kenyan herders to 20-year prison terms for illegally possessing firearms; pastoralists from Kenya’s Turkana county often cross to Uganda during dry spell in search of water and pasture. Turkana officials 13 April protested sentence, saying there was “no fairness and justice for our people”.

Ugandan forces reported gains against M23 and ADF in eastern DR Congo. Ugandan forces 10 April said they had recovered three towns vacated by M23 rebels in Rutshuru territory since 1,000-strong contingent of East African Community regional force late March deployed to North Kivu (see DR Congo). Meanwhile, Uganda’s Chief of Defence Forces, Gen. Wilson Mbasu Mbadi, 6 April hailed achievements made by Uganda-DR Congo joint operations against Islamist militia Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in eastern DR Congo, saying “ADF is now scattered in smaller groups” and “can no longer come together”.

In other important developments. DR Congo nationals allegedly led by local chief from Ituri province’s Mahagi territory around 20 April entered Zombo district and claimed three Ugandan villages; Zombo and Mahadi officials in following days held talks, agreed to respect border demarcations.

President Museveni faced mounting pressure amid series of corruption scandals involving govt officials; Ugandan troops joined regional force in eastern DR Congo.

Corruption allegations continued to cripple Museveni’s cabinet. Parliamentary committee investigating alleged mismanagement of National Social Security Fund 1 March recommended “immediate” resignation of Gender, Labour and Social Development Minister Betty Amongi for abuse of office; parliament 9 March adopted recommendation. During cabinet meeting, Museveni 6 March reportedly requested explanations on allegations, which emerged in Feb, that several ministers and other officials diverted govt-funded relief items destined for residents of Karamoja region; police 13 March announced criminal probe, while ruling party’s de facto ally Democratic Party next day called for dismissal of govt officials involved in scandal. In possible attempt to divert public attention, parliament 21 March nearly unanimously passed bill entrenching criminalisation of same-sex conduct. UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk and U.S. Sec State Anthony Blinken next day condemned discriminatory bill undermining human rights.

Museveni’s son announced bid for leadership in 2026. Museveni’s son Lt-Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba 15 March said on Twitter that he was “tired of waiting” for old guard to retire and “will stand for the presidency in 2026”; later deleted posts. Kainerugaba 27 March said he “will be retiring” from army “this year”; armed forces personnel are barred from engaging in politics.

Troops arrived in eastern DR Congo as part of regional force. About 1,000 Ugandan soldiers 31 March arrived in North Kivu province’s Bunagana town as part of East African Community regional force to supervise planned pull-back of M23 rebels; troops due to deploy to several locations in Rutshuru territory. Ugandan troops also remained active elsewhere in North Kivu as part of bilateral agreement: joint DR Congo-Uganda operation 25 March reportedly killed 22 members of Islamic State-affiliated militia Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), while Ugandan military raid 29 March killed senior ADF commander.

Corruption scandals shook President Museveni’s cabinet; East African military chiefs reportedly directed Uganda to deploy troops to fight M23 in eastern DR Congo.

Museveni’s ministers faced corruption allegations. Parliament 31 Jan-17 Feb conducted investigation into allegations that Gender, Labour and Social Development Minister Betty Amongi misused $1.6mn from National Social Security Fund under her supervision. Authorities 11 Feb arrested three relatives of Karamoja Affairs Minister Mary Goretti Kitutu for allegedly selling govt-funded relief items destined for residents of north-eastern Karamoja region; Karamoja legislators 22 Feb started process to have Kitutu censured, while Parliament 27 Feb opened formal investigation into case.

Govt announced closing UN human rights office. Foreign ministry 3 Feb announced govt will not renew mandate of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights office in Uganda beyond its current term, effectively terminating body’s work, citing progress in domestic capacity to monitor rights compliance; human right activists and advocacy groups, notably Human Rights Awareness and Promotion Forum, in following days denounced “mockery” and accused govt of running from international scrutiny.

Army allegedly set to fight M23 rebels in DR Congo’s east. At meeting in Kenya’s capital Nairobi 9 Feb, East African Community military chiefs reportedly agreed that Uganda (as well as Burundi and South Sudan) will deploy troops in North Kivu province to fight M23 rebels alongside Kenyan forces; Uganda did not officially confirm plan, which, if implemented, could exacerbate regional rivalries. Meanwhile, Ugandan army 18 Feb reportedly handed over to Congolese military 34 civilians rescued from Islamist militia Allied Democratic Forces captivity in eastern DR Congo (see DR Congo).

Tensions over President Museveni’s succession continued to run high within ruling party; authorities reinforced security along border with DR Congo.

Museveni’s son and ruling party’s old guard remained at loggerheads. Museveni’s son Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba 3 Jan lashed out at ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) party’s old guard, saying he would “teach” them that “their time is absolutely over”; deleted tweet after Internal Affairs Minister Maj-Gen. Otafiire 5 Jan responded that Kainerugaba should not “disrespect” them. VP Jessica Alupo 8 and 12 Jan said President Museveni will stand for re-election in 2026; Kainerugaba’s allies next day denounced her assertion as “lies”. Meanwhile, main opposition party National Unity Platform 15 Jan welcomed 40 new members defecting from other prominent opposition party Forum for Democratic Change in move that could undermine parties’ recent efforts at building united front against NRM.

Security situation remained volatile along border with DR Congo. Army 4 Jan announced capture of leader of Islamist militia Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) unit that had entered Uganda from DR Congo and attacked civilians in Dec. Security forces around 12 Jan arrested individual in capital Kampala and seized bomb-making material, said suspect was involved in plot to attack govt officials and linked to ADF. Meanwhile, local media outlet Daily Monitor 8 Jan reported army was deploying troops in Kanungu district, near Congolese border, to prevent spillover of conflict between M23 insurgent group and Congolese army.

Several cattle-related incidents reported in Northern and Eastern regions. In Northern region’s Karamoja sub-region, suspected cattle rustlers 9 Jan killed three Kenyan pastoralists and stole over 100 cattle in Napak district. In Eastern region, residents 11 Jan drove Balaalo pastoralists out of Ongongoja sub-county to Katakwi district headquarters, accusing them of encroaching their grazing land; authorities ordered them to leave district by 15 Jan.

President Museveni’s son lashed out at ruling party amid growing internal rift over Museveni’s succession; army repelled ADF incursion from DR Congo; and authorities rejected UN allegations that Uganda served as rear base for M23 rebels.

Museveni’s son criticised ruling party, repression of opposition continued. In series of tweets, Museveni’s son Lt-Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba 2-3 Dec attacked his father’s National Resistance Movement (NRM) party, saying it “does not represent the people of Uganda”; 5 Dec condemned “those signing declaration against [us] in NRM”, possibly referring to recent calls for Museveni to run in 2026 election. In response, NRM Sec Gen Richard Todwong 14 Dec urged Kainerugaba to “respect” and stop “insulting” party. Parliament’s Deputy Speaker Thomas Tayebwa same day criticised party’s old guard, saying NRM elders should not underestimate younger counterparts’ capacity to run state affairs. Security forces 30 Dec reportedly fired tear gas and arrested at least 30 people at rally of opposition leader Bobi Wine in capital Kampala.

ADF rebels raided villages close to DR Congo, attacks on security targets continued. Militants of Uganda-born, Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) 13 Dec crossed border from DR Congo into western Ntoroko district and opened fire at civilians, killing two; army engaged assailants, reportedly leaving 17 killed and capturing 13 others. Meanwhile, attacks on security installations continued. Notably, unidentified gunmen 9 Dec raided Kyabadaza police station in central Butambala district, killing two civilians.

Kampala rejected UN allegations about M23 using Ugandan territory as rear base. In report to UN Security Council, UN experts 16 Dec alleged M23 rebel group wreaking havoc in eastern DRC since March 2022 has been able to recruit in Uganda and move through Ugandan territory unhindered; also noted that Kampala denied knowledge of M23 presence on its soil, said it would “not condone any of Uganda’s territory [being] used to destabilise any country”.

In other important developments. UK 9 Dec sanctioned former Police Chief Gen. Edward Kale Kayihura over alleged police abuses under his leadership between 2005 and 2018, adding to U.S. sanctions imposed on Kayihura in 2019.

Govt deployed troops to DR Congo as part of East African regional force amid mounting allegations that Kampala supports M23 rebels; series of attacks targeted security infrastructure.

Spate of attacks targeted security installations. After gunmen 31 Oct shot two police officers dead in raid on Busiika police station in central Luwero district, unidentified assailants 14 Nov raided Kyanja police post in suburb of capital Kampala, reportedly leaving no casualties. Attackers 17 Nov also raided Gaddafi barracks in eastern Jinja district, killing one soldier, while police 23 Nov reportedly foiled attack on Nakulabye police station in Kampala. Deputy inspector general of police accused rebel group Uganda Coalition Front for Change of responsibility for 31 Oct attack.

Army moved against President Museveni’s former allies. Military 8 Nov arrested ten people, including relatives of former minister Maj. Abdul Nadduli, in Nakaseke district, reportedly over gun that went missing at burial of Nadduli’s son in late Oct; Maj. Nadduli late Sept had voiced criticism of Museveni’s alleged plan to have his own son, Lt-Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, succeed him. Security forces 8-9 Nov also deployed at farm of senior presidential adviser, retired Maj. Roland Kakooza Mutale, in Luwero district, accusing him of giving illegal military training to group of over 100 youths.

Govt faced growing accusations of supporting M23 rebels in DR Congo’s east. Congolese parliamentarians 1 Nov and civil society activists next day accused Uganda of supporting M23 and urged Congolese President Tshisekedi to severe ties with Kampala. Adding to concerns, Museveni’s son Kainerugaba 6 Nov publicly endorsed M23 rebels “fighting for the rights of Tutsi” in eastern DR Congo and issued veiled threat against anyone combating “those brothers of ours”. UN Security Council delegation 18 Nov met with Museveni in Kampala and reportedly asked him to clarify Uganda’s ties with M23. Kampala 21 Nov announced imminent deployment of 1,000 troops to eastern DR Congo as part of East African Community force battling armed groups there.

Tensions ran high as President Museveni’s son threatened to invade neighbouring Kenya and reaffirmed presidential ambitions.

President removed Kainerugaba from army role after threat to invade Kenya. In series of tweets 3 Oct, Museveni’s son, land forces commander Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, threatened to capture Kenya’s capital Nairobi. Govt next day distanced itself from Kainerugaba, committing to “good neighbourliness, peaceful co-existence” with Kenya, and Museveni 5 Oct apologised to Kenyans. Museveni 4 Oct removed Kainerugaba as armed forces commander, albeit promoting him to full general and keeping him as presidential adviser for special operations. After Museveni around 17 Oct said his son will “leave Twitter”, Kainerugaba 19 Oct said that “no one will ban [him] from anything”.

Kainerugaba’s presidential ambitions revived tensions over Museveni’s succession. Kainerugaba in same series of tweets 3 Oct said it was time for new generation to replace old guard; and 10 Oct pledged to devote time to the youth, Uganda’s largest voting bloc. Museveni 16 Oct declined to say whether he would support his son for presidency; also denied opposition Democratic Party leader and Justice Minister Norbert Mao’s claim that he joined govt in July after agreeing with Museveni to work together toward transition of power. Against backdrop of tensions, ruling party youth sections in Oct called on Museveni to stand for re-election in 2026.

Concern persisted over lack of free speech guarantees of new Computer Act. Museveni 13 Oct ratified controversial Computer Misuse Act, which criminalises using computer to send any information that might ridicule or degrade someone. Group of 13 activists, lawyers and journalists 17 Oct filed petition at Constitutional Court challenging law, citing free speech concerns; local NGO Legal Brains Trust hours later filed similar challenge at regional East African Court of Justice.

Cattle-related violence persisted in north, parliament passed controversial cyber law, and authorities continued operations in DR Congo’s east.

Several cattle-related incidents reported in Northern region. Despite recent lull in fighting between military and armed pastoralists amid food crisis in Karamoja sub-region, army 4 Sept reportedly killed seven cattle rustlers in Kaabong district. In neighbouring Acholi sub-region, suspected Karimojong cattle rustlers around 7 Sept reportedly killed two soldiers in Paimol sub-county and two civilians in Lapono sub-county (both Agago district).

Parliament passed cyber law in likely bid to curb dissent. Parliament 8 Sept passed cyber law criminalising use of social media to “ridicule, degrade or demean another person”, with penalties of up to five-year imprisonment; civil society group ICT Policy Centre for Eastern and Southern Africa (CIPESA) 12 Sept decried law as “draconian” bid to curtail free speech online and urged President Museveni to deny assent and return bill to parliament.

Uganda improved ties with neighbours, renewed operations in DR Congo’s east. Amid continued rapprochement with Rwanda, FM Odongo Jeje Abubakhar 1 Sept held diplomatic talks with counterpart Vincent Biruta in Rwandan capital Kigali; leaders agreed to convene Joint Permanent Commission by March 2023 for first time in over ten years. Kampala 1 Sept also paid first instalment of $325mn reparations to DR Congo – as ordered in Feb by International Court of Justice – for damages caused by Uganda’s military during occupation of parts of DR Congo in 1990s. Uganda and DR Congo 22 Sept reportedly extended joint military operations against Allied Democratic Forces rebels in eastern DR Congo for two months (see DR Congo).