CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt crackdown continued, notably targeting figures within Catholic Church; President Ortega strengthened ties with Iran.

Several figures from Catholic Church fled country, fearing persecution. Amid crackdown on Catholic Church, presbyters Luis Masís Velásquez and Bayardo Antonio Rugama from Diocese of Bluefields 12 June fled country to avoid imprisonment. U.S. senators 8 June introduced bill to extend sanctions on Nicaragua until end of 2028, which includes proscriptions against those responsible for violations against religious believers. UN human rights office 21 June warned “persecution of members of the Catholic church has intensified” in recent months.

Broader govt crackdown continued. VP Murillo 2 June announced “citizen security” scheme whereby police are authorised to enter people’s homes, which critics denounced as a surveillance program. Ortega govt 9 June confiscated assets belonging to the 222 political prisoners exiled in Feb. After revoking legal status of Red Cross in May, Parliament 1-2 June approved creation of White Cross organisation, transferring all Red Cross assets to state and bringing new organisation under Ministry of Health’s administration.

In other important developments. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi 13 June visited President Ortega in capital Managua, where both criticised U.S. sanctions. Parliament 15 June authorised entry of Russian, Cuban, U.S., Mexican and Venezuelan troops, ships and aircraft into country; govt said their presence is aimed at strengthening aid deliveries and combating organised crime.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Authorities apprehended dozens of critics, while crackdown on NGOs and Catholic Church persisted.

Authorities arrested and immediately prosecuted dozens of opponents. Authorities 3 May arrested 57 people, most of them govt critics, and arraigned them in “express hearings” at courts in capital, Managua. Govt-aligned judges charged them with “conspiracy to undermine national integrity” and “propagation of false news”, next day ordered their conditional release: they are now required to sign in with their local police station every day. Police 12-14 May carried out another “night hunt”, detaining and hastily prosecuting 18 regime opponents. Meanwhile, seven civil society organisations 24 May demanded immediate release of all political prisoners.

Crackdown on NGOs and Catholic Church continued. Govt 3 May cancelled legal status of 20 NGOs, including eight that requested voluntary dissolution. National Assembly 10 May revoked legal status of local Red Cross Branch, accusing it of violating its own rules on political neutrality during 2018 protests; 19 May revoked legal status of 26 more NGOs, bringing total number banned since April 2018 to nearly 3,500. Meanwhile, govt 18 May closed private Catholic university of Archdiocese in Managua, bringing number closed since Dec 21 to 25. Police 20, 22 May arrested two priests in Nueva Segovia and Estelí departments; 23 May arrested priest from Matagalpa Diocese (north) for “committing acts to undermine the nation’s independence and integrity”.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Repression of Catholic Church intensified around Easter celebrations, and opposition leaders called for unity to challenge regime.

Govt crackdown continued. Authorities continued to persecute Catholic Church and its practitioners. Notably, police 3 April harassed youths trying to conduct religious procession in Nindirí municipality, Masaya department. Govt 11 April confiscated monastery of Trappist nuns in San Pedro de Lóvago municipality, Chontales department. Govt next day ordered expulsion of three nuns belonging to Dominican Congregation of the Annunciation, who ran nursing home and school in Rivas department. Civil society organisation Monitoreo Azul y Blanco 10 April denounced 71 cases of religious persecution during Easter week (1-9 April). Meanwhile, govt 24 April closed three private universities, bringing number closed since Dec 2021 to 24. Human rights group Nunca Más 28 April revealed that since 2018 protests, at least 158 people detained have been subjected to torture, 113 of whom were victims of sexual violence by prison guards and police officers.

Opposition leaders acknowledged need for unity to defeat regime. Exiled opposition politicians Violeta Granera, Felix Maradiaga, Ana Margarita Vijil and Lesther Aleman 16 April participated in televised discussion of much-needed changes to opposition’s strategy. Notably, they acknowledged need for “unity in action,” vowing to set aside differences in order to counter regime more effectively.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt crackdown on civil society and religious institutions persisted, and Ortega suspended diplomatic relations with Vatican.

Govt continued to crackdown on NGOs, business associations and universities. President Ortega 6 March revoked legal status of 18 business associations for “non-compliance with the law and lack of transparency”. Govt next day closed two private universities linked to Catholic Church and ordered seizure of assets, saying universities “obstructed the control and supervision of the General Directorate for the Registration and Control of Non-Profit Organisations”; authorities 14 March closed two more, bringing number of universities closed since Dec 2021 to 21. Interior ministry 8 March cancelled legal status of 20 NGOs, citing failure to comply with legislation, 15 March cancelled 22 more, bringing total number banned since Dec 2018 to 3,348.

Authorities severed diplomatic ties with Vatican. In move cementing Ortega regime’s anti-Catholic stance, govt 12 March suspended diplomatic relations with Vatican; move comes after Pope Francis 10 March described regime as “gross dictatorship” following Feb sentencing of Bishop Rolando Álvarez to more than 26 years in prison. Vatican 18 March said it had closed its embassy in Nicaragua. Meanwhile, Chilean President Boric 25 March criticised Ortega’s “family dictatorship” for revoking citizenship of dozens of political prisoners mid-Feb.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt deported and revoked nationality of hundreds of political prisoners, tightening Ortega’s grip on power; crackdown on Catholic Church continued.

Ortega deported political prisoners and revoked their citizenship. Govt 9 Feb unilaterally released 222 of country’s 257 political prisoners, same day deported them to U.S. capital Washington, saying prisoners had “undermined the independence, sovereignty and self-determination of the nation” and incited “violence, terrorism and economic destabilisation”. National Assembly same day reformed Article 21 of Political Constitution in order to revoke citizenship of those deported and other opposition members already in exile; move prevents them from returning to Nicaragua, in effect leaving Ortega without an internal opposition and tightening his hold on power.

Repression of Catholic Church continued. Court 5 Feb sentenced six religious figures to ten years in prison on conspiracy charges. Court 10 Feb sentenced Bishop Rolando Álvarez, who refused deportation to Washington, to 26 years in prison; authorities also stripped Álvarez of his Nicaraguan nationality. Authorities 25 Feb shut down Catholic radio station Radio Metro Stereo Rosa, same day banned Catholic processions during Lent and Easter week.

Relations with Iran deepened. Iranian delegation led by FM Hossien Amir-Abdollahián 1 Feb arrived in capital Managua and signed memorandum of understanding on mechanism aimed at strengthening bilateral relations.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Crackdown on Catholic Church continued, Indigenous groups condemned govt inaction on illegal settlers, and international actors urged release of political prisoners.

Ortega’s repression of Catholic Church continued. Authorities throughout month banned at least seven religious processions from taking place and attempted to stop at least three more across country as govt clamped down on religious gatherings. Public prosecutors 10 Jan started trial of Matagalpa Bishop Rolando Álvarez, accused of “conspiracy” and “spreading false news”; judge 16 Jan found priest Óscar Benavides guilty of “conspiracy to undermine national integrity and propagation of false news” and sentenced him to eight years in prison. In closed-door trial 23-26 Jan, authorities found six priests and one layman guilty of crimes of conspiracy and spreading fake news.

Indigenous communities spoke out against govt. Representatives of Miskitus and Mayangnas indigenous communities 5 Jan published open letter to President Ortega condemning state’s inaction regarding so-called colonos, or “settlers”, whom they accuse of invading indigenous lands, murdering members of local communities, causing environmental destruction and obstructing their communities’ access to food and shelter. Police 26 Jan arrested 24 settlers after they reportedly attacked Indigenous community as part of land dispute in Bonanza municipality, North Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region.

International pressure to release political prisoners persisted. U.S. Assistant Sec State Brian Nichols 6 Jan said “there has been no communication” with Ortega’s govt but that U.S. was willing to engage if Nicaragua took “positive steps”, such as releasing political prisoners and restoring “minimum rights” for all citizens. Chilean President Gabriel Boric 24 Jan called for immediate release of prisoners during summit of Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. Meanwhile, Ortega 11 Jan withdrew ambassadors from Chile, European Union, Ethiopia and Belgium.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

President Ortega’s crusade against dissent continued despite international condemnation; relations with Russia deepened further.

Crackdown on civil society and Catholic Church persisted. Interior ministry 1 Dec revoked legal status of 100 NGOs, 10 Dec revoked 100 more. News outlet Confidencial 7 Dec reported that govt had shut down over 40% of NGOs throughout country since 2018. Govt 14 Dec closed International University for Integration of Latin America. Meanwhile, authorities 11 Dec arrested communications chief from Diocese of Matagalpa (north) and journalist working for Catholic TV channel TV Merced; authorities 13 Dec charged Matagalpa Bishop Rolando Álvarez with “conspiracy” and “spreading false news” and ordered his house arrest.

International and local actors continued to condemn govt repression. U.S. 2 Dec added Nicaragua to list of countries that restrict religious freedom. President of Nicaraguan Centre for Human Rights 10 Dec said that state’s attacks on population could no longer be described as systematic violation of human rights, but rather as “policy of extermination”. Group of 34 Nicaraguan and international organisations 15 Dec called on UN Human Rights Office to renew mandate of Group of Experts on Nicaragua to investigate human rights violations.

Relations with Russia strengthened. Russian journalists 4 Dec arrived in capital Managua to train “Sandinista media”. Ortega 13 Dec authorised his ambassador in Moscow to sign agreement on cooperation in customs matters with Russia. President of Supreme Electoral Council and her Russian counterpart 14 Dec signed protocol on electoral cooperation with aim of “strengthening electoral models” of both countries. Ortega 23 Dec said “if Ukraine wins war against Russia, fascism imposes itself in the world”.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Authorities continued to consolidate one-party state, holding local elections amid ongoing repression; relations with Russia and China deepened.

President Ortega secured full control of all municipalities in flawed elections. In another step toward establishing one-party state, authorities 6 Nov held municipal elections without participation of opposition parties and with little citizen engagement. Supreme Electoral Council 14 Nov confirmed victory of ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front in all 153 municipalities and set voter turnout at 57.5%, although independent Urnas Abiertas observatory 7 Nov estimated that 82.7% of voters did not participate. Number of international actors criticised elections. Notably, Chile’s President Gabriel Boric 9 Nov criticised lack of freedom and unreliable electoral justice; European Union 15 Nov said polls “can neither be considered democratic or legitimate”; and UN human rights office 17 Nov released report stating elections could not be considered transparent, democratic or legitimate.

Crackdown on civil society and political opponents persisted. Interior ministry 4 Nov shut down 100 NGOs, 10 Nov 100 more and 16 Nov revoked 100 more, bringing total number banned since Dec 2018 to around 2,900. Authorities 22 Nov detained renowned sociologist and govt critic Óscar René Vargas, 24 Nov detained opposition figure Guisella Ortega.

Amid deteriorating relations with regional partners, ties with Russia and China deepened. President Ortega 8 Nov accused Costa Rica of being “a terrorist base”, alluding to persecuted politicians who have requested refuge in country; Costa Rica’s President Rodrigo Chaves next day rejected allegations. Meanwhile, Beijing's ambassador to Managua 8 Nov announced equipment donations for National Police while China's top legislator, Li Zhanshu, 16 Nov held talks with president of National Assembly on strengthening bilateral ties. VP Rosario Murillo 15 Nov disclosed transport agreements with Russia, while authorities 25 Nov signed cooperation agreement with Russia on cybersecurity.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Govt crackdown on critics continued despite global and regional criticism; tensions with West intensified amid new U.S. and EU sanctions.

Crackdown on civil society and Catholic Church continued. Interior ministry 12 Oct revoked legal status of 100 NGOs, including 51 international organisations; 18 Oct revoked 58 more and 27 Oct 100 more, bringing total number of groups banned since Dec 2018 to well over 2,500. Crackdown on Catholic Church also persisted. Notably, authorities 13 Oct arrested priest from Santa Martha church in capital Managua; judge 14 Oct accused seven members from Diocese of Matagalpa of undermining national sovereignty and spreading false news. Meanwhile, National Assembly 13 Oct passed law giving govt-controlled National Film Centre authority to authorise all audio-visual productions made in country.

International and regional actors continued to denounce repression. Inter-American Court of Human Rights 4 Oct ordered immediate release of 45 political prisoners, citing health risks in “precarious detention conditions”. Argentinian justice ministry 5 Oct opened investigation against Ortega, first lady Rosario Murillo and their closest collaborators to determine whether they had committed crimes against humanity. Organization of American States General Assembly 7 Oct approved resolution calling for release of imprisoned opposition figures, cessation of repression against civilians and end to persecution of church figures. El Salvador, Honduras and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines abstained from voting.

Tensions ran high with U.S. and European Union (EU). Following expulsion late-Sept of EU Ambassador Bettina Muscheidt and severing of diplomatic ties with Netherlands, EU 10 Oct declared Nicaraguan ambassador in Brussels persona non grata; 13 Oct extended sanctions against 21 officials and three govt entities for another year. Meanwhile, U.S. 24 Oct imposed sanctions on country’s mining authority, along with another top govt official, and imposed visa restrictions on over 500 govt insiders and their families; Ortega 27 Oct said U.S. sanctions are forcing Nicaraguans to emigrate.

Latin America & Caribbean

Nicaragua

Despite international criticism, authorities continued crackdown on civil society as govt drew closer to China and Russia.

Crackdown on civil society and political opposition continued. National Assembly 7 Sept revoked legal status of 100 civil society organisations, 19-21 Sept revoked 200 more, bringing total number of banned groups since Dec 2018 to around 1,968. UN rapporteur on right to freedom of peaceful assembly 5 Sept said he had never seen “such a number of civil society organisations declared illegal from one day to the next”. Authorities 12 Sept arrested at least two activists from opposition movement Unamos in capital Managua and León city (west), 15 Sept arrested brother of exiled Unamos leader in Jinotepe city (centre). Govt 22 Sept suspended cable news channel CNN's Spanish-language service from all cable channels in Nicaragua.

International actors denounced repression. Colombian FM Álvaro Leyva 9 Sept told Colombian radio network W Radio that President Petro’s govt was trying to persuade President Ortega to release 21 political prisoners, including four former presidential candidates and some journalists. UN human rights chief 13 Sept presented report condemning “deterioration” of situation. European Parliament 15 Sept passed resolution condemning repression and arrests of members of Catholic Church. European Council President Charles Michel 26 Sept urged Ortega to “return the sovereignty of Nicaragua to the Nicaraguan people”; govt 28 Sept declared European Union Ambassador to Nicaragua Bettina Muscheidt persona non grata.

Managua drew closer to Russia and China. Nicaragua participated in military drills led by Russia 1-7 Sept in locations in Russia’s Far East and Sea of Japan, only Latin American country to do so. National Assembly 8 Sept ratified “early harvest” agreement with China signed in July, considered precursor to free trade agreement.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.