President Embaló tightened his grip on power despite mounting international pressure to reach compromise with opposition. UN Security Council 1 July expressed concern over “ongoing political and institutional crisis” and called on Embaló to compromise with African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cap Verde (PAIGC), winner of 2019 legislative elections, to form govt “in full compliance with the provisions of the Constitution”. PAIGC contested legality of parliament’s late June approval of Nuno Gomes Nabiam as PM. PAIGC parliamentary group leader Califa Seidi 1 July said vote was “null and void”, citing procedural flaws; PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira 5 July accused security forces of coercing five PAIGC MPs into voting for Nabiam. Meanwhile, Embaló 3 July reinstated five ministers he had dismissed in June to secure parliamentary majority. Embaló 7 July announced forthcoming referendum to change constitution, and said authorities would start tracking citizens’ communications within next ten days, citing need to “provide security and tranquillity to the citizens” by monitoring “insults under the guise of anonymity in the media or social networks”; several jurists immediately criticised “violation of constitution”. Group of “armed men in uniform” 26 July reportedly vandalised broadcasting equipment of independent Rádio Capital FM in capital Bissau; PAIGC same day accused authorities of staging attack; govt denied accusations. High Commissioner in charge of COVID-19 response 6 July said official figures on cases and deaths were “not even close to reality”, citing country’s low screening capacities. Embaló 25 July extended coronavirus state of emergency until 24 Aug but announced lifting of international travel restrictions.

President Embaló secured majority in Parliament, opening way for long-delayed formation of new govt. After weeks of power struggle between Embaló’s MADEM G-15 party and African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cap Verde (PAIGC), winner of March 2019 parliamentary elections, over formation of new govt, Embaló 28 June dismissed five ministers, including defence and interior ministers; all five resumed positions as MPs that had remained vacant since their nomination within govt, allowing Embaló to move closer to securing majority in Parliament. In parliamentary session next day, 55 out of 102 lawmakers approved Embaló’s candidate Nuno Gomes Nabiam as PM, opening way for formation of new govt; several PAIGC MPs reportedly turned sides and supported Gomes Nabiam. Embaló 25 June extended COVID-19 state of emergency for one month and lifted curfew. Media reports late month argued country is facing “one of Africa’s worst COVID-19 related crises” as political crisis prevents efficient response to limit spread of virus.

New President Embaló moved toward constitutional reform and failed to meet regional bloc ECOWAS-imposed deadline to form new govt. Embaló 11 May announced creation of expert commission to propose constitutional amendments by mid-Aug; move follows ECOWAS calls in late April for constitutional reform. NGO Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime published new report 11 May alleging that Embaló’s presidency might be prompting resurgence in cocaine trafficking, citing his suspected close ties to drug lords in military; notably, several police agents apparently left country in recent weeks after alleged threats and intimidation by military, reportedly leading to slowdown in drug-related investigations. Embaló failed to meet ECOWAS-imposed deadline of 22 May to form new govt, as four out of five MPs within PM Nabiam’s Assembly of the People United-Democratic Party of Guinea-Bissau, including MP Marciano Indi, continued to reject alliance with Embaló, saying 2019 coalition agreement with leading party in parliament, African Party for the Independence of Guinea, remains valid; unidentified individuals same day reportedly briefly abducted MP Indi near capital Bissau. Embaló 26 May extended COVID-19 state of emergency into June.

Umaro Sissoco Embaló, whom electoral commission declared winner of late 2019 presidential election, consolidated power amid COVID-19 pandemic and despite persisting controversy about election results. Supreme Court’s de facto president 2 April rejected some judges’ call to examine leading party in Parliament African Party for the Independence of Guinea (PAIGC)’s latest appeal against results of Dec 2019 presidential runoff vote, saying court would sit only when COVID-19 related state of emergency is lifted. Embaló’s govt stepped up pressure on some members of previous PAIGC-dominated govt. Notably, former Minister of Justice and Human Rights Ruth Monteiro 1-2 April said authorities prevented her twice from leaving country in March and distributed list with names of former ministers to airport and border posts to prevent them from leaving country; authorities 3 April denied existence of travel ban. Public Prosecutor’s office 8 April summoned Monteiro to hearing on charge of refusing to return vehicles to authorities, compelled her to appear regularly before authorities to confirm identity and continued residence in country. Bissau Regional Court 2 April sentenced twelve individuals to fourteen to sixteen years in prison for having smuggled nearly two tons of cocaine into country in Sept 2019. Embaló’s govt 6 April apologised for “excessive police actions” after human rights groups condemned alleged abuses by security forces while enforcing COVID-19 restrictions, including beatings and extortions; Embaló 12 April extended state of emergency for another fourteen days. Regional body ECOWAS 22 April recognised Embaló as president. Embaló and two PAIGC officials reportedly met 29 April in Bissau in bid to resolve crisis.

Post-election standoff persisted between Umaro Sissoco Embaló, whom electoral commission declared winner of Dec 2019 presidential runoff vote, and ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea (PAIGC), which has been challenging results before Supreme Court. After PAIGC-controlled parliament late Feb swore in parliament’s President Cipriano Cassamá as interim president, Cassamá resigned 1 March, citing death threats. Regional body Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 2 March asked armed forces to remain neutral following deployment late Feb of security forces aligned with Embaló in and around major institutions. Embaló 2 March named govt of PM Nuno Gomes Nabiam, who next day urged public servants to resume work; however incumbent PM Aristides Gomes, who refused to stand down, same day rejected order and asked civil servants to stay at home instead. Nabiam 8 March confirmed that his party rescinded their coalition agreement with PAIGC, but some of its MPs maintained support for PAIGC, blocking Nabiam’s ability to secure majority at Assembly. Same day, ECOWAS cancelled expert mediation mission due 9 March after Nabiam condemned “foreign interference” and called for departure of ECOWAS military mission in Bissau (ECOMIB) at its expected termination date end of March. By 11 March, ECOMIB had removed its troops, which were securing houses of Aristides Gomes, Cassama and Supreme Court judges. EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell 12 March asked parties to prioritise dialogue and expressed support for ECOWAS mediation. Embaló embarked on diplomatic tour, meeting Senegalese, Nigerien and Nigerian presidents 9-13 March and securing their support. Backed by armed forces, Embaló and Nabiam progressively took over state bureaucracies throughout month, but controversy carried on. Nabiam 27 March proclaimed state of emergency amid COVID-19 pandemic, which critics denounced as step to stifle debate.

Post-electoral standoff intensified as ruling party continued to contest its candidate’s defeat in late Dec 2019 presidential election. Electoral commission (CNE) 4 Feb again confirmed former PM Umaro Sissoco Embaló as winner after regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 31 Jan requested it respond to Supreme Court’s request to make further checks. Defeated candidate of ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) Domingos Simões Pereira 5 Feb filed new appeal with Supreme Court requesting election be annulled, citing irregularities. ECOWAS 9 Feb gave Supreme Court six days to release ruling; latter 14 Feb denounced interference by regional bloc, rejected Pereira’s appeal, but requested CNE again check results’ accuracy. Embaló 19 Feb denounced ruling, while CNE said it had already fulfilled similar request and results were definitive. ECOWAS 22 Feb called on CNE and Supreme Court to break deadlock, warned it may impose sanctions against actors who hamper resolution of post-electoral standoff. Pereira 26 Feb filed new complaint with Supreme Court. Both sides late Feb took steps to affirm their grip on power: Embaló 27 Feb took oath as president during ceremony at hotel reception hall in Bissau organised by parliament’s VP Nabiam, in presence of outgoing President Vaz and senior military officials and 28 Feb appointed Nabiam as PM; PAIGC denounced moves as coup attempt and PAIGC-controlled parliament same day swore in parliament’s President Cassamá as interim president. Security forces aligned with Embaló reportedly increased their presence in Bissau 28-29 Feb.

Post-electoral standoff emerged amid allegations of fraud in second round of presidential election late Dec. After national electoral commission (CNE) 1 Jan said former PM Umaro Sissoco Embaló had won with 53.55% of votes, defeated candidate Domingos Simões Pereira of ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) complained of fraud and 3 Jan appealed to Supreme Court to annul results. Supreme Court 11 Jan called on CNE to clarify certain aspects of results. CNE responded to Court’s queries and 17 Jan gave final results, confirming Sissoco’s victory, but Supreme Court same day insisted it demanded recount. CNE 22 Jan said it had submitted additional documents to Supreme Court, called for Sissoco to be sworn in. Regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) acknowledged Sissoco’s victory 22 Jan but 30 Jan sent mission to Bissau, insisted CNE should comply with Supreme Court’s demand.

Former PM Umaro Sissoco Embaló 30 Dec won in second round of presidential election 29 Dec with 53.55% of votes, beating former PM and candidate of ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) Domingos Simões Pereira. Pereira denounced electoral fraud, and submitted appeal at Supreme Court 3 Jan.

In 24 Nov presidential election, former PMs Domingos Simoes Pereira and Umaro Sissoco Embaló came first and second with 40% and 28% of votes respectively and will contest second round planned for 29 Dec; tensions and violence could rise in coming weeks. Incumbent President Vaz came fourth with 12%, 28 Nov conceded defeat. Vaz’s campaign team accused rivals of buying votes and stuffing ballot boxes; electoral authority 25 Nov denied claims, said vote was transparent. Minor clashes involving party supporters or police broke out in several places including Bissorã in north, Canchungo in north west and Empada in south west, and in neighbourhoods of capital Bissau. After Vaz late Oct dismissed govt and replaced PM Gomes, African Union’s Peace and Security Council 7 Nov deemed removal of Gomes “illegal”. Heads of state from regional bloc Economic Community of West African States at extraordinary summit in Niger 8 Nov said decision violated country’s constitution and threatened to apply sanctions if govt of Vaz-appointed PM Imbali did not resign. Imbali resigned same day and Gomes resumed his functions.

Ahead of 24 Nov presidential election, tensions mounted as President Vaz dissolved govt and tried to replace PM Gomes raising risk of protests and violent repression by security forces in coming weeks. Supreme Court 16 Oct approved twelve of nineteen would-be presidential candidates, including incumbent President Vaz and representatives of main political parties. Parliament 15 Oct approved PM Gomes’s program by narrow margin, but vote divided ruling coalition: notably Nuno Gomes Nabiam, presidential candidate and leader of Assembly of the People United (APU), voted against program. Tension rose over updating of electoral rolls. Nabiam 14 Oct said ruling party African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) used money earmarked for updating electoral rolls to finance its activities. Mission including representatives of African Union (AU), UN and regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) visited capital Bissau 7 Oct, insisted on adherence to electoral schedule and said that previous rolls should be used in absence of agreement on revisions. PM Gomes 22 Oct said his former ally and opposition leader Umaru Sissoco Embalo, also presidential candidate, was preparing coup; recording of conversation between Sissoco and unidentified man about fomenting trouble circulated on social networks. Sissoco denied accusations. Police 26 Oct cracked down on opposition protest in Bissau calling for revision of electoral rolls and delay of presidential election, one person reportedly killed. President Vaz 28 Oct dissolved govt saying political situation was undermining normal functioning of state institutions and 29 Oct named Faustino Fudut Imbali (PM from 2000 to 2003) as PM, but incumbent PM Gomes refused to step down. ECOWAS same day rejected Vaz’s decision and insisted Gomes was still PM; UN, AU and Angola supported ECOWAS position.