North Korea began attempts to launch satellite as U.S. and South Korea started large-scale drills in run-up to alliance anniversary, raising tensions and risk of miscalculation in June.

Pyongyang attempted satellite launch, U.S. and South Korea began largest ever live drills. Pyongyang 28 May announced plans for launch of military reconnaissance satellite between 31 May and 11 June, one of leader Kim Jong-un’s five military priorities announced in Jan 2021; Japan’s defence ministry warned it would take “destructive measures” if ballistic or other missiles used for launch “land in our territory”. In Pyongyang’s first launch attempt 31 May, rocket crashed off west coast; Pyongyang vowed second attempt. Concurrently, U.S. and South Korean forces 25 May began largest-ever live-fire drills close to North Korean border, commencing period of military exercises extending into June to mark 70th anniversary of alliance. Heightened activity on peninsula in June could lead to misconceptions about each side’s intentions that raises risk of clashes, potentially in form of cross-border skirmishes or between vessels in West Sea.

South Korea and Japan strengthened rapprochement. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese PM Fumio Kishida 7 May held summit in South Korean capital Seoul, reciprocating Yoon’s ground-breaking trip to Japan in mid-March; Kishida remarked that his “heart aches” over treatment of Koreans during colonial period but stopped short of full apology. Pair subsequently advanced military plan in which radar and command-and-control systems used by Japanese and U.S. forces in Japan would be connected to South Korean military and U.S. Forces Korea via U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; goal of linkage is to provide more effective trilateral monitoring of regional military activities and eliminate surveillance blind spots.

South Korea agreed to supply Ukraine, North Korea inched toward reopening China border. Wall Street Journal 25 May reported South Korea had agreed to supply hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds to Ukraine via U.S. After Chinese companies with experience shipping cargo to North Korea by truck were issued so-called “river crossing passes” in April, May witnessed abnormal levels of maintenance of North Korean aircraft used for international routes, potentially signalling Pyongyang’s intent to soon reopen Chinese border to human traffic for first time since pandemic.

North Korea claimed successful solid fuel missile test and hinted at satellite launch, U.S. and South Korea boosted alliance with new accord, and Yellow Sea incident highlighted maritime tensions.

North Korea continued missile tests and indicated impending satellite launch. North Korea 13 April successfully carried out what it said was its first-ever flight test of solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Hwasong-18, marking potentially significant milestone in regime’s efforts to shield country’s missile forces from pre-emptive attack. Meanwhile, leader Kim Jong Un 18 April reaffirmed Pyongyang’s intention to launch what country calls “military reconnaissance satellite” in coming months, which is one of Kim’s five military priorities announced in Jan 2021. Kim’s remarks implied that satellite launch could be timed to coincide with U.S.-South Korea military drills in June marking 70th anniversary of alliance; statement followed North Korean claim on 5 March that it had developed powerful rocket engine that could guarantee successful satellite launch but satellite imagery suggested that construction work continues at main North Korean rocket launch site Sohae, likely ruling out imminent launch.

U.S. and South Korea boosted alliance with “Washington Declaration”. In first state visit to U.S., President Yoon met President Biden in Washington where pair 26 April unveiled new steps to bolster their alliance as 70th anniversary approaches: sides established new group to consult on nuclear planning akin to NATO mechanism, Biden reaffirmed commitment to extended deterrence and agreed to deploy nuclear submarine to south, and sides pledged to expand training and exercises; Yoon reaffirmed country's commitment to nuclear non-proliferation following comments earlier this year suggesting interest in seeking nuclear weapons. In response to G7 statement on 18 April that called for North Korea to dismantle its nuclear capabilities, North Korean FM Choi Son Hui 21 April insisted on permanence and non-negotiability of country’s nuclear deterrent.

South Korea responded to North Korean maritime incursion. South Korean navy vessel 15 April broadcast warnings and fired ten warning shots as North Korean patrol boat that crossed Northern Limit Line – de facto maritime border that Pyongyang refuses to recognise – near South Korea’s Baengnyeong Island in Yellow Sea, before North’s vessel retreated.

U.S. and South Korea held large-scale military drills as North Korea continued missile tests and hinted at upcoming provocative satellite launch, while Seoul and Tokyo improved relations.

U.S.-South Korea conducted military exercises as Pyongyang launched missiles. U.S. and South Korea 13 March commenced 11-day Freedom Shield military exercise on scale last seen in 2018, ushering in moment of relatively high risk due to competing military activities on peninsula. During drills, North Korea conducted three separate missile launches, including intercontinental ballistic missile (Hwasong-17) on lofted trajectory into East Sea on 16 March; missile did not cross Japanese territory. Other missiles launched included multiple long-range cruise missiles on 22 March.

North Korea hinted at satellite launch and unveiled purported warhead casings. North Korea 5 March indicated that it had developed powerful rocket engine that, it claims, now guarantees that it can launch satellites successfully. Comments may pave way for North Korea to use one of its most powerful ballistic missiles to launch satellite on or around 15 April to mark anniversary of birth of national founder Kim Il-sung; military reconnaissance satellite launch is one of five main military priorities announced by leader Kim Jong-un in Jan 2021 for 2021-2026 period. North Korea 28 March for first time released images of purported tactical nuclear warhead casings, suggesting regime has – or wishes to project – confidence that it can master miniaturisation and produce such weapons at scale.

South Korea and Japan revived partnership. South Korea 6 March announced plan to compensate small number of remaining victims of Japanese wartime forced labour by funding compensation through donations from firms that received investment capital from reparations obtained from Japan in 1960s. While deal effectively resolves longstanding thorn in relations, issue proved extremely contentious among liberals and youth in South Korea. President Yoon Suk-yeol 16-17 March visited Japan for bilateral summit, bringing curtain down on extended period of bilateral friction in recent years; Japanese PM Kishida called it “major step towards normalizing relations”.

North Korea continued spate of provocative missile launches amid U.S.-South Korea drills, raising prospect of escalation around allied military exercises in March.

North Korea elevated threats amid frequent missile tests. Pyongyang seized upon perceived threats posed by U.S. and South Korea as pretext for planned military testing. Notably, North Korea 18 Feb launched Hwaseong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile on lofted trajectory, which reached almost 6000km altitude before falling into East Sea/Sea of Japan. South Korea and U.S. 19 Feb conducted joint drills involving B1-B strategic bombers. North Korea 20 Feb launched two “tactical nuclear” 600mm rockets at targets 395km and 337km away; U.S. and ten other states same day raised missile launch two days prior at UN Security Council, though no agreement was reached on Council response. After South Korean, U.S. and Japanese Aegis-equipped destroyers 22 Feb participated in missile defence drill off peninsula’s eastern coast, Pyongyang next day fired four long-range cruise missiles on 2000km trajectories. U.S. 23 Feb said it held tabletop drill with Seoul simulating North Korea using nuclear weapon, at which North Korea expressed deep concern. North Korea 24 Feb indicated further actions to come, underscoring likelihood of period of military escalation in coming weeks, potentially around U.S.-South Korea 11-day spring military exercise that commences mid-March.

North held military parade to mark anniversary. Pyongyang 8 Feb held late-night military parade to mark founding of country’s military. Though largely aimed at domestic audiences, event allowed military to display numerous intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Row erupted over nuclear contamination claims. South Korea 24 Feb offered to test for nuclear contamination almost one thousand North Korean defector-migrants from regions near North Korea’s only nuclear test facility at Punggye-ri in remote north east; offer followed 21 Feb report by Seoul-based NGO Transitional Justice Working Group that claimed many thousands of North Koreans from towns and villages near nuclear test site may have been exposed to contaminated water.

North Korea vowed further nuclear and missile development, while South Korea President Yoon Suk-yeol stirred concern with nuclear armament comments.

North Korea ended 2022 party plenum with promise of nuclear expansion. During speech on 31 Dec at culmination of annual review meeting of ruling Workers’ Party held 26-31 Dec, leader Kim Jong-un vowed to “exponentially increase” nuclear weapons production in 2023 in response to threat posed by U.S. and South Korea, specifically citing heightened trilateral coordination among U.S., Seoul and Japan; Kim also stated country was developing “another new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system” with “rapid nuclear counterattack ability” and highlighted late June (Korean War anniversary) and Sept (75th anniversary of state foundation) as important anniversaries, indicating possible military provocations around those periods.

President Yoon sparked controversy with comments on nuclearisation. In off-the-cuff remarks to reporters, Yoon 11 Jan said South Korea could consider building nuclear weapons if nuclear threat from North Korea grows, explaining “we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly given our scientific and technological capabilities.” Government officials subsequently noted it was not official govt policy; nevertheless, comments sparked intense speculation at home and abroad about whether South Korea may one day pursue nuclear weapons, with opinion polling showing support for nuclearisation now running above 70%.

UN said north and south violated armistice agreement with drones. Following special investigation, UN Command 26 Jan said both North and South Korean forces violated 1953 armistice ending Korean War by sending drones across border into other’s airspace late Dec; verdict followed incident in which five North Korean drones 26 Dec entered south, prompting south to deploy drone in tit-for-tat move.

North Korea conducted space rocket launch and missile tests, vowing military satellite launch in April 2023, while its bellicose rhetoric hinted at further provocations to come.

Pyongyang launched space rocket and appeared to set April 2023 for satellite launch. Pyongyang 18 Dec launched what it claimed was carrier rocket for its space program and released grainy photos of South Korean capital Seoul and port city Incheon purportedly taken at 500km altitude; state media next day noted that country was now making “preparations for military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 by April 2023”. Military reconnaissance satellite launch is one of five main military priorities announced by leader Kim Jong-un in Jan 2021 for 2021-2026 period.

North Korea conducted ballistic missile tests, rejected South Korea’s criticism. Pyongyang 15 Dec conducted its first ever solid-fuel missile engine test at Seohae Satellite Launch Station, marking one giant step closer to obtaining solid-fuel inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability. Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong 20 Dec rejected South Korean comments, which asserted that technology used was same in ICBMs and therefore banned by UN Security Council resolutions; Kim also threatened to conduct down-range ICBM test, saying that Seoul “will immediately recognize [North Korea’s capability if] we launch an ICBM [at a normal angle]”. Combined with hints that it may launch military reconnaissance satellite in April, comments underscore risk of further escalatory actions in coming months, including possible seventh nuclear test. North Korea 23 and 31 Dec fired short-range ballistic missiles and 26 Dec deployed five drones that entered south. Meanwhile, Pyongyang 23 Dec denied U.S. assessment that it delivered arms to Russia for use by private military company Wagner Group in Ukraine.

U.S. continued military drills, Japan unveiled new security strategy. U.S. 20 Dec flew nuclear-capable bombers and stealth fighter jets during joint military drills with South Korean jets in remote corner of south. Japan 16 Dec released first national security strategy in nine years, pledging focus on three areas related to Korean Peninsula: North Korea’s state-sponsored abductions of Japanese citizens in 1970s and 80s, North Korean nuclear issue, and Pyongyang’s missile programs.

North Korea test fired dozens of missiles, including its largest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and admonished U.S. and South Korea in harsh criticism.

Pyongyang continued intense missile testing and military provocations. Following multiple launches throughout Oct, Pyongyang 2-3 Nov fired approximately 26 missiles, including likely long-range cruise missile and ICBM, latter of which landed 200km west of northerly Japanese island of Hokkaido; another missile landed south of Northern Limit Line (de facto inter-Korean maritime border) just 40km from east coast of South Korean town of Sokcho. Amid barrage, North Korea 2 Nov fired approximately 100 artillery shells in vicinity of South Korea’s maritime buffer zone. Further launches of short-range missiles followed 9 and 17 Nov; North 18 Nov fired “Hwasong-17”, which appears to mark first successful launch of largest ICBM in its arsenal following launch failure in March. North characterised early Nov launches as response to recent U.S.-South Korean military drills, but seem to form part of sustained strategy that is raising peninsula tensions.

Concerns persisted over potential seventh nuclear test. Satellite imagery taken on or around 7 Nov published by U.S. think-tank CSIS showed no activity at third of four tunnels at North Korea’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site; analysts and observers believe Pyongyang is technically ready to conduct seventh nuclear test – and first since 2017 – at site with minimal further preparations. South Korean President Yoon 28 Nov warned response to seventh test would “will be something that has not been seen before”.

Pyongyang slammed U.S. and South Korea. Exploiting opportunity offered by inconclusive UN Security Council meeting regarding North Korea’s missile launches, Sister of Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, 22 Nov called U.S. “scared barking dog” and alleged that Washington is feeling frustrated by council’s inability to achieve unanimity due to geopolitical tensions with China and Russia; Kim warned North Korea sees “grave political provocations attempting to drive the Korean Peninsula situation into a new phase of crisis”. Kim 24 Nov asserted “[President] Yoon Suk-yeol and his idiots continue to create a dangerous situation”.

North Korea continued to ratchet up tensions with missile flight over Japan, U.S. and South Korea signalled close cooperation, and North and South traded warning shots at sea.

North Korea conducted provocative launch over Japan. North Korea 4 Oct launched intermediate range ballistic missile over Japan, in most serious provocation since first quarter of 2022 and first such flight over Japan since 2017; missile flew some 4,500km, well within range of U.S. territory of Guam. North Korea 16-23 Oct paused further missile testing, lasting for duration of Chinese Communist Party Congress; prior to pause, Pyongyang launched 15 missiles 21 Sept-14 Oct. North resumed missile testing schedule post-Congress, with two short-range ballistic missiles fired 28 Oct. International Atomic Energy Agency chief 27 Oct said “Everybody is holding its breath” over possible seventh nuclear test as U.S., South Korea and Japan warned of “unparalleled response”; probability of nuclear test likely to rise in lead up to Dec, which will see anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s death 17 Dec.

U.S. and South Korea demonstrated strong, united front. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Sung Kim 3 Oct met South Korean counterpart Noh Kyu-duk in U.S. capital Washington, pledging to pursue strong measures against any North Korean testing, including new UN Security Council resolution and U.S. treasury sanctions. In sign of heightened pace of joint military exercises, South Korea and U.S. held several small drills in South Korea, including on border with North, following late August Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises; South Korean navy, army, air force, and coast guard 24-27 Oct participated with U.S. in two-week Hoguk Exercises beginning 17 Oct; U.S. and South Korea 31 Oct began large-scale air drills.

North and South Korean vessels traded shots at sea border. In incident underscoring risk of future maritime escalation, North and South Korea 23 Oct traded warning shots after what appeared to be North Korean merchant vessel crossed disputed maritime border Northern Limit Line (NLL) 27km northwest of South Korea’s Baengyeong Island. North Korea denied involvement, issuing counterclaim that South Korean navy sent two ships to “intrude” some 5km over NLL; South acknowledged crossing, said it was necessitated by pursuit of North Korean vessel.

North Korea fired ballistic missiles as U.S. and South Korea held military drills, Seoul proposed humanitarian talks with north, and Pyongyang outlined use of nuclear arsenal.

As U.S.-South Korea military drills ended, Pyongyang launched spate of ballistic missiles. U.S. and South Korea 1 Sept concluded joint Ulchi Freedom Shield summer exercises, largest for four years; exercises included eleven different types of field exercise, including joint aircraft carrier strike drills and amphibious landings. North Korea did not respond, but 24 Sept launched first ballistic missile; launch came after South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol 21 Sept delivered UN General Assembly speech without mentioning North Korea for first time ever, and ahead of U.S.-South Korea joint naval exercises 26-29 Sept and visit by U.S. VP Kamala Harris to South Korean capital Seoul and inter-Korean border. Pyongyang 28-29 Sept launched additional missiles, including after VP Harris departed. South Korea, U.S. and Japan 30 Sept held anti-submarine exercises for first time in five years.

South Korea sought progress with north on reunions of separated families. Seoul 8 Sept requested talks with North Korea on restarting unions of families separated by Korean War, in first attempt by new administration to make progress on longstanding humanitarian issue; Pyongyang did not respond to outreach, reaffirming disdain for new conservative administration.

North Korea promulgated new law governing nuclear use. Ahead of country’s founding day on 9 Sept, North Korea 8 Sept promulgated new law specifying conditions for use of nuclear arsenal. Law stipulates North will not attack non-nuclear states except if allied with nuclear states, nuclear weapons can be deployed if “attack by hostile forces on the state leadership…was launched or drew near”, and use aimed at preventing “expansion and protraction of a war”. In speech accompanying new law, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un same day declared “legislating nuclear weapons policy is to draw an irretrievable line so that there can be no bargaining over our nuclear weapons”. While symbolic, law appears to be timed to raise regional military stakes in absence of highly provocative actions ahead of China’s ruling party congress beginning on 16 Oct.

U.S. and North Korea traded barbs over latter’s nuclear weapons program, while Pyongyang rejected Seoul’s new denuclearisation initiative amid U.S.-South Korea military drills. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 1 Aug criticised North Korea’s expansion of “unlawful nuclear programme” and accused Pyongyang of preparing seventh nuclear test; Pyongyang 3 Aug responded that it would “never tolerate” U.S. criticism on weapons tests and called Washington “kingpin of nuclear proliferation”. Visiting South Korea, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 4 Aug pledged to support North Korea’s denuclearisation based on “extended deterrence”; North Korean state media 6 Aug denounced Pelosi as “worst destroyer of international peace and stability”. UN concluded in confidential report leaked 4 Aug that North Korea made preparations for nuclear test during first six months of 2022. In first elaboration of North Korea policy since March election, South Korean President Yoon 15 Aug asserted that denuclearisation was prerequisite for peace in North East Asia and proposed “audacious initiative” to provide economic aid and development in exchange for Pyongyang’s credible steps toward denuclearisation. Kim Yo Jong – sister to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un – 18 Aug dismissed proposal as “nonsense”, saying denuclearisation “cannot be bartered” for economic cooperation and proposal was rehash of policies of conservative govt in power 2008-2013. Remarks came after South Korea, U.S. and Japan 8-14 Aug held joint missile warning and tracking exercises. North 17 Aug fired two cruise missiles from Onchon (west coast). Yoon same day said high-level talks “should not be a political show” but lead to “substantive peace”. South Korea and U.S. 22 Aug commenced largest joint exercise in years. Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un 11 Aug declared end to COVID-19 outbreak, which many local traders interpreted as sign that cross-border trade with China could soon restart. South Korean FM Park Jin and Chinese FM Wang Yi 9 Aug pledged to pursue “two-plus-two” talks and increase high-level communication on range of issues; dispute over U.S.-supplied missile defence system deployed in south 11 Aug resurfaced, however, as Beijing sought limits on its deployment. South Korean prosecutors 19 Aug raided presidential archive as part of investigation into former Moon administration’s repatriation of two North Korean fishermen in 2019.