Six-way talks ended in Beijing 28 February with ‘modest gains’. Talks followed revelations that network of Pakistan's nuclear weapons scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, supplied uranium enrichment technology, contradicting Pyongyang’s long-standing denial of uranium-based project. U.S. restated demand for total dismantlement of North Korea's plutonium and uranium programs. North Korea offered to freeze programs in return for energy and economic assistance, but will not dismantle programs until U.S. guarantees its security. No agreement reached other than to meet before the end of June. Impasse may be broken by S. Korea, Russia and China’s willingness to supply aid and energy assistance. U.S. positive about talks; Chinese mediators stressed progress hampered by ‘extreme lack of trust’ between Washington and Pyongyang.

Pyongyang offered ‘bold concession’ 6 January after plans for 6-way talks stalled in December: U.S. economic aid, end to sanctions and removal from ‘axis of evil’ list in return for suspended nuclear power program and halt to nuclear weapon construction. Unofficial U.S. delegation visited Yongbyon nuclear site, noted empty spent-fuel facility. North Korea claimed the 8,000 fuel rods had been reprocessed to extract plutonium. Visit seen as North Korean effort to show nuclear capabilities. Gestures to Japan indicated attempts to normalise relations before new talks.

Negotiations for mid-December six-way talks stalled, but Pyongyang said willing to take part in new talks in early 2004. N. Korea and U.S. failed to agree on talk objectives. Pyongyang insisting complete, irreversible, verifiable dismantling of nuclear weapons not possible without economic aid and security assurances. Economic and energy incentives not included in U.S. proposal. N. Korea accused Washington of delaying tactics. President Bush rejected North Korean 9 December offer to ‘freeze’ nuclear program; Pyongyang rejected U.S. 15 December counter-proposal.

Despite verbal sparring between Washington and Pyongyang, expectation that six-way talks will resume 17-19 December in Beijing on basis of written multilateral security guarantee linked to North Korean steps on dismantling nuclear program. U.S. Secretary of Defence Rumsfeld and Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly conducted East Asian tours to prepare for multilateral talks. Pyongyang announced 6 November it had a nuclear deterrent powerful enough to deter any U.S. attack and was ready to use it; in part a response to U.S. announcement of suspension of KEDO power station project. U.S. reiterated had no intention of attacking North Korea. U.S. also announced plans to reposition its troops stationed in South Korea further from the border.

Net gains after volatile month. Pyongyang announced 2 October it had finished reprocessing 8,000 nuclear fuel rods (producing enough material for several nuclear bombs); said 16 October it would “physically display” its nuclear deterrent; then 20-25 October reportedly test fired short-range naval missiles into Sea of Japan. Cabinet-level talks between North and South Korea ended in deadlock 17 October. Following discussions with Chinese President Hu Jintao on fringes of Bangkok APEC summit and with Japanese, Russian and South Korean leaders earlier, President Bush announced 19 October possibility of written multilateral security guarantee linked to North Korean steps on dismantling nuclear program, though not Senate-approved formal non-aggression pact demanded by Pyongyang. Having dismissed it days earlier as ‘laughable’, North Korea announced 26 October it was ‘ready to consider’ proposal if based on intention to coexist with DPRK; agreed on 30 October during visit of senior Chinese envoy Wu Bangguo to resume six-way talks early 2004.

Sabre-rattling has resumed since six- way multilateral talks held in August ended inconclusively. North Korea said was uninterested in holding further talks and announced was taking measures to increase nuclear deterrent. On 19 September IAEA had urged DPRK to dismantle nuclear program, but latter rejected demands four days later, calling IAEA a “political maid” of U.S. DPRK denounced deployment of new U.S. Patriot missiles in South Korea. Meanwhile, U.S. unveiled plans to fly new spy plane along DMZ. Chinese Government transferred control of border with DPRK from police to army; unconfirmed reports say it sent 150,000 troops to border region to control refugee flows.

After intense activity in August, underlying situation neither better nor worse: next period has both high risk and high peace opportunity. Tensions escalating since October 2002 when North Korea admitted to secret nuclear arms program. Six-way multilateral talks between U.S., North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia in Beijing on 27-28 August. North Korea announced intention to become nuclear power; plan to test atomic bomb in near future. Having agreed on 28 August on new round within two months, Pyongyang announced on 30 August it saw no value in further talks. U.S. and others declined to take at face value. Japan announced plans for new missile defence system.