China maintained military activities around Taiwan, G7 leaders expressed importance of stability in strait, and Taiwan’s presidential candidates ruled out independence ahead of 2024 vote.

China continued aerial and maritime presence, Taiwan held military exercises. As of 29 May, Taiwan detected 348 Chinese military aircraft in its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), of which at least 124 crossed unofficial demarcation “median line” or entered south west region; Taiwan recorded 156 sightings of Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters. Notably, Chinese reconnaissance drone accompanied by transport aircraft 3 May made round-island loop, several days after Chinese combat drone took similar path. Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong 27 May passed through Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s parliament 2 May passed law to allow officers of Coast Guard Administration to decide whether to fire cannons in emergency situations. Taiwan 15 May began annual series of tabletop military exercises, simulating responses to potential Chinese invasion.

G7 leaders acknowledged Taiwan, U.S. continued military support. During meeting in Japan, G7 leaders 20 May reaffirmed “the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait” and stated no change in members’ positions on Taiwan, including “one China policies”; Beijing same day said G7 should oppose “Taiwan independence”. U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee 16 May passed Taiwan International Solidarity Act, which aims to counter Chinese interference in Taiwan’s participation in international organisations. Taiwan Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng 7 May announced talks with U.S. on priority list of weapons under possible $500mn emergency grant; U.S. 16 May confirmed it will soon provide “significant additional security assistance”.

Taiwan’s main parties ruled out independence ahead of elections next year. Ahead of Jan 2024 elections, VP and ruling Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate William Lai 16 May asserted there is no need to publicly declare Taiwan’s independence as island is implicitly not part of People’s Republic of China, and formal declaration could cause more cross-strait tension. Opposition Kuomintang party 17 May nominated Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi as its presidential candidate; Hou 8 May said he opposes “one country, two systems” and will uphold Taiwan’s own democratic values, while emphasising Taiwan’s independence “has no legal basis under the Constitution”.

China launched three-day military drills in response to meeting between President Tsai and U.S. House Speaker, fuelling temporary uptick in tensions.

China launched military drills as President Tsai met Speaker McCarthy. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen 5 April met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California, where both reaffirmed strong partnership between countries. In response, China 8-10 April held military exercises around Taiwan; notably, Taiwan 10 April recorded 91 Chinese military aircraft and 12 naval ships around island, with record high 54 aircraft crossing unofficial demarcation “median line”. China’s reaction was relatively muted in comparison to military drills held in response to Speaker Pelosi’s visit in Aug 2022. Chinese military activity continued during month: as of 28 April, Taiwan detected 548 Chinese military aircraft in its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) and recorded 148 sightings of Chinese vessels in surrounding waters. French Navy frigate 8-10 April and U.S. guided missile destroyer 16 April transited Taiwan Strait; U.S. Navy P8-A Poseidon patrol plane 28 April flew through strait.

China protested U.S. support for Taiwan, Europe debated its role. China 14 April announced sanctions on U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee chair Michael McCaul for his recent visit to Taiwan. Beijing 19 April opposed Taiwan’s purchase of 400 Harpoon missiles from U.S. Following his state visit to China 5-8 April, French President Macron triggered controversy with remarks that France and Europe should not be drawn into conflict over Taiwan by U.S.; German FM Annalena Baerbock 13 April said conflict over Taiwan will have disastrous consequences and Europe cannot afford to be indifferent.

Former Taiwanese president concluded historic China visit, Taiwan's election campaigning picked up speed. Former Taiwanese President and opposition party Kuomintang member Ma Ying-Jeou 27 March-7 April visited China, becoming first former or current Taiwanese leader to visit mainland China since civil war; trip highlighted different approaches of Taiwan’s two main political parties with regards to cross-strait relations ahead of presidential election slated for Jan 2024. Meanwhile, Foxconn founder Terry Gou 18 April announced bid to become Kuomintang’s presidential candidate, while current Taiwan VP William Lai was officially confirmed as ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate.

China continued aerial and maritime activity around island, while Taiwan’s President Tsai visited U.S. as Beijing vowed retaliation over possible meeting with U.S. House Speaker.

China continued military activities in Taiwan Strait. As of 26 March, Taiwan detected 316 Chinese military aircraft entering its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), of which at least 117 crossed unofficial demarcation “median line” or were detected in south west ADIZ; Taiwan detected 92 Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters. Taiwan’s defence minister 6 March warned of China’s potential “sudden entry” into areas close to island amid rising tensions. Taiwan 8 March said it suspected Chinese ships of cutting internet cables to outlying Matsu Island.

President Tsai’s stopover in U.S. prompted Beijing’s warnings. Tsai 29 March arrived in U.S., en route to Guatemala and Belize, and is expected to meet U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in early April; Beijing late March threatened “serious confrontation” and to “fight back” if meeting goes ahead, raising prospect of China increasing military or economic pressure on Taiwan. Earlier, U.S. 3 March approved package for Taiwan worth $619mn related to F-16 fighter jets. Taiwan 7 March announced $236mn deal with U.S. arms company to refurbish Taiwan’s tank fleet and 18 March $47.1mn deal with U.S. related to Apache helicopters. U.S. House of Representatives’s Committee on Foreign Affairs 1 March approved bill supporting Taiwan’s inclusion in International Civil Aviation Organization; U.S. Congress 10 March introduced bill for U.S. to lend or lease material support for Taiwan’s national defence.

Beijing emphasised peaceful cross-strait relations, Honduras sought ties with China. Chinese leader Xi Jinping 13 March said peaceful development of cross-strait relations will be actively promoted and vowed to oppose all external interference and Taiwan’s separatist activities. Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou 27 March began visit to China, making him first former or sitting president to visit mainland. Meanwhile, Honduras – one of 14 states that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan – 16 March announced it will seek official ties with Beijing, ending recognition of Taiwan. Separately, Taiwan’s Election Commission 10 March set general election for 13 Jan 2024.

China maintained frequent aerial and maritime activity around island, while opposition party Kuomintang (KMT) went to China, and U.S. and Taiwan exchanged visits by senior officials.

China continued military presence around island. As of 27 Feb, Taiwan detected 311 Chinese military aircraft entering its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) during month, of which at least 110 either crossed unofficial maritime demarcation known as “median line” or were detected in south-western ADIZ near strategic Bashi Channel; Taiwan reported 109 sightings of Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters in course of month. Notably, Taiwan 1 Feb activated missile systems and scrambled jets in response to operations by 34 Chinese military aircraft and nine warships, including 20 aircraft crossing median line.

Taiwan opposition delegation visited China. Ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election in Jan 2024, main opposition party KMT’s Vice Chairman Andrew Hsia 8-17 Feb led delegation to China, meeting with newly appointed Director of Taiwan Affairs Office Song Tao and China’s top Taiwan affairs official Wang Huning; KMT said visit concerned needs of Taiwanese based in China, Chinese business regulations and developing ties with Chinese officials; Song and Wang both expressed China’s desire to enhance mutual trust and cooperation with KMT on basis of “1992 consensus”. Shanghai’s Taiwan Affairs Office officials 18-20 Feb visited Taiwan following invitation by Taipei city authorities, marking first visit by Chinese officials to Taiwan since borders reopened last Oct.

Taiwan and U.S. continued defence ties and exchanged visits by senior officials. Taiwan 8 Feb signed two contracts with U.S. worth total of $85mn to maintain its fleet of F-16 fighter jets. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Chase 17 Feb arrived in Taiwan, marking visit by most senior U.S. defence official since 2019. Bipartisan U.S. congressional delegation 21 Feb met President Tsai, who confirmed two countries “continue to bolster military exchanges”. Reports late month indicated U.S. looking to expand its small troop presence in Taiwan to help train Taiwanese forces. FM Joseph Wu and National Security Council Sec Gen Wellington Ku 23 Feb visited Washington for security dialogue with senior U.S. officials, including Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman.

China maintained frequent aerial and maritime activity around island, while Taiwan’s ruling party appointed new leader ahead of 2024 election.

China continued military presence around island. China 8 Jan announced military drill around Taiwan practicing land attack and sea assault. As of 30 Jan, Taiwan detected 346 Chinese aircraft entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ), of which at least 119 either crossed unofficial maritime demarcation known as “median line” or were detected in south west ADIZ near strategic Bashi Channel; Taiwan reported 104 sightings of Chinese vessels in surrounding waters. In first transit of 2023, U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Chung Hoon 6 Jan transited through Taiwan Strait. In New Year’s message, newly appointed head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office 2 Jan reaffirmed Beijing’s commitment to “peaceful reunification and one country two systems on the condition of One-China principle and 1992 consensus”; Taiwan same day responded Beijing must stop military coercion and imposing political frameworks.

Taiwan continued active engagement with partners. U.S. and Taiwan 17 Jan concluded second-round talks on Initiative on 21st Century Trade, which will lay groundwork for de facto free trade agreement; U.S. said that both sides have “reached consensus in a number of areas” covering trade “facilitation”, anti-corruption, small and medium-sized enterprises and regulatory practices. German and Lithuanian parliamentary delegations 9 Jan arrived in Taiwan. President Tsai 30 Jan held telephone call with Czech President-elect Petr Pavel in which pair highlighted countries’ shared values.

Ruling party prepared for upcoming polls. Ahead of presidential elections scheduled for Jan 2024, VP Lai Ching-te 16 Jan took over as new chief of ruling Democratic Progressive Party after Tsai stepped down following bad showing at local elections; Lai vowed to continue to follow Tsai’s approach to maintain status quo and reiterated that there is no need to declare independence for Taiwan.

China maintained frequent aerial and maritime activity around island, including largest-scale single day aerial incursion this year, while U.S. continued military support for Taiwan.

China continued military presence around island and coercive trade practices. At least 472 Chinese military aircraft were detected entering Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during month, of which at least 191 either crossed unofficial maritime demarcation known as “median line” or were detected in south west of ADIZ near strategic Bashi Channel; Taiwan reported 112 sightings of Chinese navy vessels in surrounding waters. Notably, China 27 Dec sent 71 warplanes into Taiwan’s ADIZ, of which 47 crossed the median line – marking biggest number in single day reported this year. Policy chief of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party Koichi Hagiuda same day became most senior member of ruling party to visit Taiwan in 19 years; Haguida remarked that Beijing should refrain from using force to change status quo. China 10 Dec suspended shipments of seafood, beer, liquor and other beverages from key suppliers from Taiwan, citing failure to comply with new customs registration system introduced last year; move is widely seen as latest attempt to economically coerce Taiwan. Taiwan 27 Dec announced extension of its conscription military service from current four months to one year, which will come into effect in Jan 2024.

U.S. continued militarily supporting Taiwan. U.S. Congress 8 Dec passed National Defense Authorisation Act, which will provide as much as $10bn loan to Taiwan over five years to acquire weapons in bid to enhance its defence capability against China; Beijing responded that it “firmly reject[s] the negative content about China from the bill” and urged U.S. to stop using Taiwan to contain China. Canada’s FM Melanie Joly 5 Dec said Ottawa plans to send more warships through Taiwan Strait, as it aims to play bigger role in Indo-Pacific; Canada recently launched its Indo-Pacific Strategy in which it described China as “increasingly disruptive power”.

Military activities around island continued as China maintained frequent aerial and maritime incursions, while U.S. and Chinese presidents discussed Taiwan in first face-to-face meeting.

China continued military presence around island as U.S vessel transited strait. As of Nov 20, Taiwan detected 436 Chinese aircraft entering its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), of which estimated 170 either crossed unofficial demarcation “median line” or entered south-western ADIZ; Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters were sighted 98 times. U.S. Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold 5 Nov sailed through Taiwan Strait; Commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet 20 Nov said that U.S. has been sending warships through strait approximately every month. Meanwhile, Taiwan 7 Nov began its annual “Sky Dragon” military drills involving aerial combat exercises and ground-based support operations over six days, while Taiwan’s army 19 Nov conducted live-fire drill on outlying Penghu Islands; routine drills are expected to be held monthly in response to growing intimidations from China.

U.S. and China leaders held first face-to-face meeting, agreeing to manage Taiwan differences. In bilateral meeting at G20 summit, U.S. President Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping 14 Nov agreed to manage their differences and competition, including on question of Taiwan; Xi said that Taiwan is “at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-U.S. relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations”, while Biden reportedly expressed objections to Beijing’s coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan. Taiwan same day thanked Biden for reiterating U.S. support. Taiwan and U.S. 16 Nov reportedly signed deal to maintain long-range early-warning radar systems. U.S. and China defence chiefs 22 Nov met and agreed to improve communication channels and crisis management mechanism, suspended since U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August.

China’s President Xi reiterated goal of reunification, if necessary by force, as Beijing continued high level of aerial activity around island.

China and Taiwan stated respective positions on island’s status. In his speech at opening of 20th Party Congress, Chinese President Xi 16 Oct said China will strive for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but it will never promise to renounce use of force and it reserves option of taking all necessary measures; he warned of “interference by external forces”. In response, Taiwan’s President Tsai same day reiterated Taiwan’s “territorial sovereignty, independence and democracy cannot be compromised” and “military conflict is not an option”. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 26 Oct said Beijing had decided “status quo was no longer acceptable”. Earlier, Tsai’s 10 Oct expressed willingness to work with Beijing “to find a mutually agreeable arrangement”, potentially signalling Taipei’s goodwill to improve cross-straits relations. As of 30 Oct, 425 Chinese aircraft entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ); 97 aircraft crossed unofficial demarcation known as median line. Chinese naval vessels were sighted 104 times during month.

U.S. reportedly sought deeper defence cooperation with Taiwan. Nikkei Asia media outlet 19 Oct announced U.S. was considering plan for joint weapons production with Taiwan as part of broader move towards greater security assistance; announcement came after Taiwan 1 Oct commissioned largest locally built ship, 10,600-ton amphibious vessel Yu Shan, in significant milestone in govt’s effort to boost indigenous defence production. German-Taiwan Parliamentary Friendship Group Chairman Klaus-Peter Willsch 2 Oct commenced five-day visit to Taiwan; members of Bundestag's Committee on Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid 23 Oct also visited.

China maintained high-level of incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone, while U.S. continued to signal strong support to Taipei as President Biden vowed to aid island in event of attack.

China conducted daily aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). China dispatched 377 planes as of 21 Sept into Taiwan’s ADIZ; notably, 181 aircraft crossed unofficial demarcation known as median line, which has become near-daily routine since visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in Aug. Chinese naval vessels were sighted 133 times in surrounding waters in Sept. Taiwan 1 Sept shot down Chinese civilian-operated drone in Kinmen county, off China’s Fujian province; Taiwanese military 5 Sept confirmed Chinese UAVs crossed median line for first time. U.S. and Canada 20 Sept held joint operation with destroyer USS Higgins and frigate HMCS Vancouver, transiting strait for second time in three weeks; China slammed exercise as provocative.

U.S. representatives continued visits, U.S. legislators approved new Taiwan act and President Biden vowed to defend island. Following Pelosi’s 2 Aug visit, U.S. engagement remained high. Arizona Governor Doug Ducey 1 Sept and Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy 8 Sept began visits. Five Taiwanese legislators 13 Sept visited U.S. capital for closed-door meetings with U.S. officials. Members of Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, hosted by U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, 15 Sept called for greater support for Taiwan and expressed opposition to any unilateral change of status quo. U.S. Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee 15 Sept approved Taiwan Policy Act; Chairman Bob Menendez called it “most comprehensive restructuring of U.S. policy toward Taiwan since […] 1979”, with notable provisions including $6.5bn military aid to Taiwan through 2027; China same day said bill will “greatly shake the political foundation of China-U.S. relations” if passed. In fourth and clearest remark since assuming office, Biden 18 Sept said U.S. would defend Taiwan from any “unprecedented attack”. China 23 Sept accused U.S. of sending “very wrong, dangerous signals” during meeting with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken, who same day affirmed “long-standing one-China policy”.

Tensions soared as China conducted large-scale live-fire exercises around Taiwan as part of its multi-pronged response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to island. As U.S. congressional delegation led by Nancy Pelosi 2 Aug landed in Taiwan, China announced live-fire air-naval drills in six strategic maritime areas around Taiwan running 4-7 Aug and later extended to 10 Aug, with over 100 planes flying in first two days. Taiwanese defence ministry 3 Aug decried exercise as akin to blockade and claimed China fired 11 ballistic missiles into waters near Taiwan and over island for first time (some of which landed in Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone – see China/Japan). Additionally, Chinese aerial incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone skyrocketed, totalling 751 planes 1-28 Aug with 337 crossing median line; Chinese naval vessels were sighted 173 times 5-28 Aug, with many vessels also crossing median line. Responding to surge in Chinese activities, Taiwanese troops 4 Aug fired warning flares at two drones spotted near Kinmen county, 10km from China’s Fujian province; 30 Aug fired warning shots at Chinese drone operating in same area. Taiwan 9, 11 Aug held live-fire artillery drills in Pingtung county and 17 Aug held fighter jet drill. Alongside military action, Taiwan govt websites suffered increased cyberattacks, and China 3 Aug banned imports of many Taiwanese goods. China 5 Aug imposed economic sanctions on Pelosi and her direct family, and same day cancelled eight planned dialogues with U.S., including theater command talks, defence policy coordination and climate change talks. U.S. 4 Aug called Chinese response overreaction and effort to “change a status quo”. G7 3 Aug condemned Beijing’s “aggressive military activity” and Japan, U.S. and Australia 7 Aug urged China to cease military exercises. China 15 Aug announced new round of joint combat readiness patrols around Taiwan following U.S. Democrat Senator Ed Markey's visit to island, and next day announced sanctions on ten Taiwanese political figures. Two U.S. warships, USS Antietam and USS Chancellorsville, 28 Aug transited Taiwan Strait; Beijing said it was monitoring movement in comparatively restrained response. U.S. governor of Arizona 30 Aug visited island.