CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Afghanistan

UN announced delay of parliamentary elections originally set for 21 May for security and organisational reasons; final decision over voting system and electoral boundaries yet to be made. Delegation of ex-Taliban officials led by former ambassador to UN, Abdul Hakim Mujahid, held amnesty and reconciliation talks with government. Renewed violence Helmand, Khost and Kandahar provinces killed at least 22. Long-delayed westward expansion of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) - led by Turkey as of 14 February - finally progressing: U.S. agreed transfer of 2 existing Provisional Reconstruction Teams in west to NATO control; Spain and Lithuania to add further 2, and 1 Forward Support Base to be created. First-ever Afghanistan Human Development Report showed economy, education improving, but poverty, inequality and instability threatening progress.

Asia

Afghanistan

Preparations for spring parliamentary elections considerably behind schedule; FM Abdullah announced possible 1-2 month delay. Sporadic violence returned after period of relative calm: attacks targeting police killed 6, while at least 24 Afghan soldiers killed by suspected Taliban in southern Helmand province and Kandahar. Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum escaped Taliban suicide attack unhurt 20 January. Senior Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah denied peace talks underway between commanders in southeastern provinces and government. Newly appointed Interim Supreme Court formally inaugurated 8 January; majority of 9-member court are religious clerics with no formal higher education. After President Karzai complained and NGOs protested, Bush Administration backed off threat of aerial eradication as part of major $780m counter- narcotics plan.

Asia

Afghanistan

Newly-elected president Hamid Karzai appointed new cabinet, with influence of warlords significantly reduced. Karzai sworn in as Afghanistan’s first popularly elected president 7 December - promised peace and end to economy’s dependence on narcotics. New cabinet confirmed 24 December: Pashtun technocrats in key security and financial posts; Northern Alliance influence greatly reduced. UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan announced successful disarmament of 20,000 militia fighters under campaign led by Afghanistan’s New Beginnings Program. Violence continued in southern and eastern provinces: 4 police killed in Kandahar drive-by shooting by suspected Taliban 20 December, days after roadside bomb killed 4 policemen in southern Khost province.

Asia

Afghanistan

Election results officially announced 4 November gave President Karzai 55% of votes. Inauguration planned for 7 December as talks over cabinet composition continue. Progress made on heavy weapons collection in north with release of 45 tanks by Abdul Rashid Dostum. Three abducted UN workers freed 23 November. Clashes between U.S./Afghan forces and Taliban intensified after end of Ramadan: separate mine blasts in Uruzgan province and attacks in Kandahar killed at least 12, including 2 U.S. soldiers. Taliban leader Mullah Omar vowed to regain control of country in 12 November statement. UN said land under opium cultivation increased by 66% in 2004, though yield up by 17%; opium income equal to over 60% of Afghan licit economy.

Asia

Afghanistan

First-ever direct presidential election successfully held 9 October, largely free of expected violence. President Hamid Karzai won by near 40% margin despite voter registration irregularities, problems with indelible ink, early boycott threats from candidates and accusations of fraud. Results exposed ethnic split in electorate, with Karzai's challengers leading in most northern and central provinces. U.S.-led forces in south killed at least 40 in operations leading up to poll. Kidnapping of 3 UN election workers by ex-Taliban faction Jaish-e-Muslimeen in Kabul 28 October and suicide bombing 24 October that killed 2, raised concerns about post- election security in Kabul. Five killed in Paktika province as election commission vehicle targeted 18 October; 6 died, including 2 U.S. soldiers, in separate 16 October incidents in Kunar and Uruzgan province. NATO nations agreed rota for leadership of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) up to 2007 in attempt to improve coordination; Turkey, Italy, Britain and Spain to lead ISAF for 6 to 8 months each after multinational Eurocorps hands over in February 2005.

Asia

Afghanistan

Security concerns deepened in run-up to 9 October presidential election. President Karzai forced to abandon first election rally outside Kabul 16 September after rocket attack on his helicopter in Gardez; Vice President Shahrani escaped assassination attempt 20 September. U.S. announced additional deployment of up to 1,000 troops for election security 22 September, bringing total to approx. 19,000. President Karzai sacked powerful Herat governor Ismail Khan 11 September, prompting violent demonstrations that killed 7 and destroyed UN and aid agency offices. Attacks in southern Zabul province included beheading of 5 local officials 15 September and 3 Afghan soldiers 20 September; 28-30 September incidents killed 19 Afghan soldiers. U.S./Afghan operations continued in southern Kandahar province: 21 militants reportedly killed 12 September; 3 U.S. soldiers died 20 September in clashes in Paktika and Paktia provinces.

Asia

Afghanistan

Security situation further deteriorated: at least 12 killed in 29 August Kabul car bomb in front of U.S. private security company offices; claimed by Taliban. Blast previous day in southern Paktia province killed 10, including 9 children. Fierce factional fighting erupted in western Herat province 14 August. Clashes between Herat Governor Mohammad Ismail Khan and rival local commander Amanullah Khan killed at least 24. Fighting stopped 18 August after deployment of 1,500 Afghan National Army troops and Kabul-brokered ceasefire. Attacks on election workers continued with 9 August ambush of Joint Electoral Management Body (JEMB) convoy in central Uruzgan province, killing 2. Election registration closed 20 August with 10.3 million registered to vote in 9 October presidential elections. Europe’s multinational Eurocorps took over command of International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) 9 August. U.S. forces claimed 31 August strike in eastern Kunar province killed 20 militants, denied local reports of 8 civilian deaths. President Hamid Karzai met Pakistani counterpart Pervez Musharraf 24 August. Musharraf promised Pakistan would not allow Islamic militants to disrupt presidential elections.

Asia

Afghanistan

Parliamentary elections, originally to run in parallel with 9 October presidential election, rescheduled for April 2005 due to lack of authoritative population data and progress on disarmament. Junbish party leader Abdul Rashid Dostum resigned from nominal post as President Karzai’s military adviser to stand for presidency. FM Abdullah to support former education minister Yunus Qanuni’s bid for presidency. Karzai dropped powerful defense minister Mohammed Fahim as running mate 26 July. Fahim also to support Qanuni. In bid to accelerate disarmament, Karzai reassigned 3 recalcitrant militia leaders, including Atta Mohammad in Mazar-e Sharif, from army corps command posts to civilian posts as governors and police chiefs. Médecins Sans Frontières announced withdrawal from country citing lack of security and inconclusive investigations into June killings of MSF personnel. Attacks continued on election workers. Widespread clashes between U.S./Afghan forces and Taliban fighters killed at least 40. Factional fighting also continued. NATO approved deployment of 1,800 additional troops by September to reinforce election security. President Karzai signed 14 July decree stating that refusal to disarm, remobilising troops, or maintaining unofficial militias would be punished.

Asia

Afghanistan

NATO leaders announced 28 June increased - but less than hoped for - troop deployment as security continued to worsen. NATO agreed to send approx. 1,500 extra military personnel to Kabul and north during elections, further 700 to take command of 4 northern Provincial Reconstruction Teams. President Karzai and Washington remain committed to September elections: about 5.2 million of nearly 10 million eligible voters registered but process slowed in south and east by militant violence. Election workers targeted: 2 killed by blast in eastern city of Jalalabad 26 June. Taliban guerrillas reportedly killed 16 in Oruzgan province for carrying voter registration cards. U.S. and Afghan forces intensified operations in south, killing 23 militants 8 June. Two U.S. troops killed in Kunar province on border with Pakistan 24 June. Insurgent attacks also spread to north: 5 Médecins Sans Frontières staff killed in northwestern province of Badghis. In addition, 11 Chinese workers, 4 locals killed in northern Kunduz, though Taliban denied responsibility.

Asia

Afghanistan

Fears of spring offensive by Taliban and other insurgent groups confirmed as attacks increased in south and east. Over 30 killed, including 2 UK election workers. UN voter registration continues to be delayed by violence. 1 Norwegian, 6 U.S. soldiers killed in separate attacks in Kabul, Helmand, Zabul and Uruzgan provinces. President Karzai negotiated with leaders of former Northern Alliance over key cabinet posts, in attempt to gain support prior to elections. Main phase of UN- backed disarmament, demobilisation, reintegration program started 17 May. To date 4,000 pieces of heavy weaponry registered. Government plans to disarm 40% of estimated 100,000 militiamen by end of June ahead of landmark September elections. But March 2004 agreement between UN and Afghan defence ministry to decommission specific militia units and downsize others meeting resistance from militia leaders in Kabul and provinces. U.S. launched 24 May review of detention centres following abuse allegations.

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