Efforts to resolve water dispute between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan remained at standstill. Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasir Abbas 24 Aug said Addis Ababa’s filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in July had no effect on year’s flood but “lack of information” forced Khartoum to take precautions with significant economic and social costs. Ethiopian FM Demeke Mekonnen 26 Aug called on UN Security Council members to reject draft resolution on GERD submitted by Tunisia in July, which called for legally binding agreement between three parties; reiterated such resolution would undermine efforts to resume negotiations with Egypt and Sudan under African Union auspices.

Regional tensions ran high as Ethiopia completed second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt’s Irrigation Minister Mohamed Abdel Aati 5 July said he had received notice from Addis Ababa that it had begun filling GERD reservoir for second year in a row, expressed “firm rejection of this unilateral measure” and reassured citizens filling would not impact available water volumes yet. UN Security Council (UNSC) next day urged all parties to recommit to talks. Egypt’s FM Sameh Shoukry 8 July urged UNSC to help resolve dispute and approve draft resolution calling for legally binding agreement between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia within six months; U.S and Russia same day reiterated support for AU-led mediation efforts and opposition to any changes to current diplomatic framework. Ethiopia 19 July announced it had completed second filling of GERD; Khartoum same day rejected Addis Ababa’s “fait accompli policies” and Sudan’s Irrigation Minister Yasser Abbas 28 July said Khartoum would not resume negotiations without involvement of international quartet composed of U.S., UN, EU and AU.

Egypt and Sudan continued to increase pressure on Ethiopia to negotiate legally binding agreement on filling and operation of giant dam on Blue Nile river. Egypt and Sudan 9 June jointly called on Ethiopia to “seriously negotiate” agreement on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In letter to UN Security Council, Cairo 11 June denounced Ethiopia’s plan to move ahead with second GERD filling despite lack of binding agreement and called on international community to redouble efforts to help reach peaceful settlement. Khartoum 14 June said it was willing to sign partial interim deal that would include all terms agreed on by all three parties and guarantees of continued negotiations. Arab League 15 June issued resolution calling for UN Security Council intervention to make all parties sign binding agreement; Ethiopian foreign ministry immediately rejected resolution and accused Cairo and Khartoum of attempting to “unnecessarily politicize” GERD negotiations. Sudanese FM Mariam Sadiq al-Mahdi 22 June reiterated call on UN Security Council to meet and discuss GERD. Sudan 27 June rejected Addis Ababa’s interim deal proposal to manage second filling, claiming it was “way to buy time” and negotiations on any such proposal should involve all parties under AU auspices.

Rhetoric among parties grew harsher ahead of Addis Ababa’s second filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Ethiopian foreign ministry 4 May denounced “unwarranted, provocative and increasingly bellicose propaganda” by Sudan; statement followed Khartoum’s late-April warning that Ethiopia’s disavowal of past border treaties compromised country’s sovereignty over Benishangul-Gumuz region where GERD is located. Amid growing concerns that GERD’s second filling between June and Aug could escalate dispute, U.S. Horn of Africa Special Envoy Jeffrey Feltman 4-13 May travelled to region, called for immediate resumption of AU-led tripartite negotiations. In meeting with Feltman in Cairo, Egyptian President Sisi 5 May said Ethiopian dam was “existential” threat, warned Cairo would not accept anyone “harming its water interests”. Ethiopian foreign ministry 20 May warned Addis Ababa would “not tolerate any move” aimed at disrupting GERD’s second filling. Khartoum 25 May claimed Addis Ababa had begun second filling early May; Ethiopian Water Minister Seleshi Bekele same day denied allegations as “deliberately misleading”. In possible warning to Addis Ababa and preparation for possible escalation of tensions, Sudan and Egypt 26-31 May held third joint military exercise since Nov 2020. 

Tensions continued to mount among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt ahead of Addis Ababa’s planned second unilateral filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in coming months. In apparent warning to Addis Ababa and preparation for possible escalation of inter-state tensions, Sudan and Egypt 31 March-5 April held second joint military exercise since Nov 2020. New round of talks among Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile river broke down 6 April. Cairo same day denounced Ethiopia’s “lack of political will to negotiate in good faith”, while Khartoum vowed to “consider all possible options to protect its security”, denouncing Addis Ababa’s rejection of its proposal for quadripartite mediation by AU, EU, UN and U.S. to break deadlock in AU-led negotiations. Ethiopia’s water minister Seleshi Bekele 7 April said Addis Ababa would proceed with second filling of dam during forthcoming rainy season between June and Sept. Sudan and Egypt 10 April declined Ethiopia’s offer to share data about second filling, reiterating need for legally binding agreement on dam’s operation. Sudan 12 April and Egypt next day called on UN Security Council to encourage Ethiopia to refrain from filling GERD unilaterally before parties reach agreement. Sudanese PM Abdallah Hamdok 13 April called for closed-door meeting with Egyptian and Ethiopian counterparts in bid to break deadlock; Ethiopia 21 April declined Hamdok’s proposal, same day proposed AU-sponsored meeting to end stalemate. Following Hamdok’s 5 April meeting with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken and Egyptian FM Sameh Shoukry’s 12 April meeting with Russian FM Sergey Lavrov, Ethiopian FM Demeke Mekonnen 15 April denounced “politicising and internationalising” of dispute. Sudanese Irrigation Minister Yasir Abbas 23 April said Sudan may sue Ethiopia in international courts if it goes ahead with plan to fill GERD unilaterally.

Ethiopia confirmed plans to fill Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) for second time in July as negotiations with Sudan and Egypt remained deadlocked; rhetoric among conflict parties grew increasingly tense. Following Sudan’s Egypt-backed proposal in Feb for quadripartite mediation by AU, EU, U.S. and UN to break deadlock in AU-led negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan over GERD, Khartoum and Cairo 2 March signed agreement to boost military cooperation, next day renewed calls for relaunching “serious and effective” negotiations to reach “fair, balanced and legally binding” agreement. Ethiopia 3 March said attempts to involve other mediators “demeaned” AU efforts. Sudan mid-March submitted formal request for international quartet to mediate GERD dispute; Ethiopia 16 March reiterated opposition to involving outside parties and renewed call for resumption of stalled AU-led tripartite talks, next day confirmed it would conduct second GERD water filling in July. Khartoum 23 March backed proposal by United Arab Emirates to mediate both its border and dam disputes with Addis Ababa; 29 March said U.S. and EU were willing to mediate dam dispute, after UN 5 March already said it was ready to support process. Cairo 28 March warned unilateral actions taken by Addis Ababa over filling and operation of GERD would have “massive negative repercussions”; 30 March said its share of Nile Waters was “untouchable”, and any reduction in Egypt’s water supply caused by GERD would bring “inconceivable instability” in region. Sudan next day said Ethiopia’s unilateral actions had undermined trust between both countries and explained it had proposed international quartet mediation after “learning Addis Ababa was eluding to buy time” to complete second filling of dam in coming months.

Tripartite negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remained stalled. African Union (AU)-sponsored talks between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on filling and operation of GERD 4 Nov reached stalemate after Egypt objected to Sudan’s proposal to give greater role to AU experts to narrow gaps between parties and propose compromises. Sudan 21 Nov boycotted new round of talks, reiterating call for new method of negotiation. Ethiopian govt 26 Nov announced GERD expected to begin generating power in June 2021.

African Union hosted tripartite meeting to break deadlock on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), while U.S. President Trump’s comment ignited tensions. African Union 27 Oct hosted virtual meeting between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan ministers of foreign affairs and water resources to discuss ways to resume talks over filling and operation of GERD. Earlier in month, Ethiopian President Sahle-Work 5 Oct said dam will begin generating power in next 12 months; Ethiopia’s aviation chief same day said all flights in airspace over GERD had been banned “to secure the dam”. Sudanese PM Hamdok 23 Oct urged for “amicable solution” to dispute while U.S. President Trump same day said Egypt could end up “blowing up that dam”. Ethiopian govt next day accused Trump of trying to incite “war” between GERD parties, and FM Gedu Andargachew same day summoned U.S. ambassador.

Negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) remained largely stalled. U.S. early Sept announced suspension of around $130mn in aid to Ethiopia over latter’s completion of first phase of filling of GERD’s reservoir and “lack of progress” in tripartite talks. At UN General Assembly, Egypt’s President Sisi 22 Sept warned against extending negotiations indefinitely, and Ethiopia’s PM Abiy 25 Sept said Ethiopia had “no intention” of harming Sudan and Egypt and remained committed to African Union-led talks.

Comprehensive agreement on filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Blue Nile River remained elusive despite stop-start negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan. Following 3 Aug resumption of tripartite negotiations between water ministers under African Union auspices, Sudan and Egypt next day suspended participation in protest at Ethiopia’s proposal to negotiate agreement only on filling of dam, instead of comprehensive agreement on filling and operation, and later to negotiate separate treaty on Blue Nile water allocation. Negotiations 10 Aug resumed but Sudan immediately requested talks be further postponed for a week to conduct internal consultations. Egyptian PM Mostafa Madbouly and senior Sudanese officials in Khartoum 15 Aug renewed calls for legally binding agreement on filling and operation of GERD including dispute resolution mechanism. All three water ministers resumed negotiations few days later. Ethiopia and Sudan 25 Aug vowed to make “all efforts” to reach deal but latter 28 Aug said talks had again stalled. U.S. Sec State Pompeo late Aug approved plan to halt some U.S. aid to Ethiopia, reportedly in effort to mediate agreement.