CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Sri Lanka

Country braced for 2 April general election violence following President Kumaratunga and PM Wickremesinghe feud. Split between Tamil commanders added to tensions. Eastern Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) leader Karuna (V. Muralitharan) accused LTTE leadership of discriminating against Tamils in east – dismissed by northern leadership 6 March. Karuna controls approx. 6,000 fighters compared to 11,000 for LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran. Tamil National Alliance (TNA) candidate and supporter of Karuna shot dead, leading government to deploy troops as precaution. Norwegian peace envoy Erik Solheim reviewed Oslo-arranged truce 15 March. Both Prabhakaran and Karuna said they would abide by it. Kumaratunga pledged to abolish the presidency should her United People’s Freedom Alliance win power, with her assuming prime minister’s position. Also indicated she would remain defence minister, one of 3 ministries she took control of in November, regardless of election outcome.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Political stalemate ended 7 February with President Kumaratunga calling elections for 2 April, almost 4 years ahead of schedule. Government condemned move as undemocratic. President also sacked 39 junior ministers to prevent them using positions to campaign. Tamil Tigers (LTTE) expressed concern over president’s alliance partner, Marxist People's Liberation Front (JVP), who called current ceasefire national security threat. LTTE not to contest election but pledged support for moderate Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Tamil candidate campaigning to represent Prime Minister Wickremesinghe's party shot dead 1 March. Development aid pledged at Tokyo conference last year conditional on progress of peace talks.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Feud between President Kumaratunga and PM Wickremesinghe continued with both sides intransigent over control of defence ministry. Sri Lankan government demanded 9 January Kumaratunga renegotiate ceasefire with Tamils or give up security portfolio appropriated in November. Kumaratunga claimed she could keep office 1 year longer than expected, until 2006, due to early investiture and second secret inauguration ceremony: claim rejected by government. Snap elections possible as Kumaratunga’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (in opposition) signed alliance with Marxist People’s Liberation Front (JVP), Sri Lanka’s third largest party, creating The United People’s Freedom Alliance. JVP opposed to devolution of power to minority Tamils. Tamil Tigers (LTTE) continued to warn that peace process under threat. Norway replaced leader of monitoring mission whom Kumaratunga had accused of anti-government bias. Delegation from LTTE travelled to Norway for talks 28 January.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Political crisis between PM Wickremesinghe and President Kumaratunga continues to disrupt peace process; self-imposed 15 December deadline passed with no resolution to standoff. Wickremesinghe refused to continue peace negotiations with LTTE (Tamil Tigers) without control of security functions, currently in hands of Kumaratunga following latter’s 4 November dismissal of defence, interior, and information ministers and appropriation of their portfolios. Situation unlikely to change before parliament reconvenes in new year. Snap election a possibility.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Ceasefire holding but peace process also on hold as country paralysed by political crisis. Days after LTTE (Tamil Tigers) finally presented power-sharing proposal to government, President Kumaratunga suspended parliament, took control of defence, interior and media ministries and deployed troops to guard government buildings 4 November. Move read by many as attempt to undermine PM Wickremesinghe who president has criticised for compromising security by conceding too much to rebels. Norway suspended mediation efforts until crisis resolved. Agreement reached 18 November in meeting between PM and president to form peace committee to work out mechanics of power-sharing. PM offered broader role for president in peace process; she responded by setting 15 December deadline for resolution of stand-off, offered deal on sharing defence responsibilities which Wickremesinghe then rejected. Talk of snap election if stand-off not resolved by mid- December. EU envoy, Chris Patten, met Kumaratunga, Wickremesinghe and, controversially, LTTE chief, Prabhakaran, on trip planned before political crisis.

Asia

Sri Lanka

LTTE (Tamil Tigers) meeting took place in Ireland between 10-15 October to consider government proposal of power-sharing body for north and east – LTTE presented counter-proposal to government 31 October. Document outlines ethnically representative interim assembly for five-year period followed by referendum on new constitution. Preliminary meeting planned for November and formal negotiations to recommence early 2004.

Asia

Sri Lanka

LTTE (Tamil Tigers) pulled out of Japanese-led aid talks on 10 September. Row between Sri Lankan president and prime minister over conduct of negotiations could threaten efforts to end 20-year conflict.

Asia

Sri Lanka

Security situation relatively stable since signing of February 2002 ceasefire, but political killings increasing in north and east. Government has said it will send troops to area. LTTE (Tamil Tigers) suspended direct peace talks in April, claiming not enough being done to rehabilitate war- torn Tamil areas. Government has proposed limited autonomy for majority Tamil areas; rebels are working on counter-proposal.

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