CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Asia

Indonesia

Violence continues in Aceh after Free Aceh Movement (GAM) called for 2 day ceasefire to facilitate release of 80 hostages. Indonesian military (TNI) agreed on condition GAM formally renounce tactic of civilian hostage taking. Total of 143 captured separatists to be transferred to detention centres on Java. Explosion in cafe 10 January in South Sulawesi town of Palopo killed 4. Police questioned and released 7 people in relation to blast. Cache of weapons found in Poso by authorities, suspected links to Jemaah Islamiah. Supreme Court upheld Bali bomber Amrozi’s death sentence. Trial commenced 27 January of Mohammad Rais accused of recruiting Marriot hotel suicide bomber. Threat of state of emergency being declared in West Papua ahead of elections. Tensions rising on border with East Timor (see East Timor section). National Intelligence Agency (BIN) to be given broader powers after President Megawati signed decree authorising agency to open offices in all provinces, regencies and municipalities across Indonesia.

Asia

Indonesia

Senior Islamic clerics ruled suicide bombings forbidden in Indonesia by Islam 16 December. Four of 6 suspected Indonesian Islamic militants, arrested in Pakistan and deported in December, detained under Indonesia's anti-terror laws - included Rusman "Gun Gun" Gunawan, brother of Hambali. More alleged rebels killed in Aceh but no independent verification of military statistics on numbers killed or detained since martial law declared in May 2003. Bomb blast at open air concert in Aceh New Year’s eve killed at least 9 concertgoers – perpetrator unknown. An Indonesian journalist held hostage by Aceh rebels since July 2003 killed in shootout between rebels and army 29 December. Red Cross and some U.N. agencies allowed back to Aceh but international NGOs effectively remained barred. Unrest in Papua following appointment of new police chief indicted by the UN’s East Timor Serious Crimes Unit for human rights abuses in East Timor. Sporadic violence continued in Poso.

Asia

Indonesia

Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) regrouping after arrests and reportedly planning new attacks; new operations chief Aris Sumarsono, alias Zulkarnaen, still at large. Attacks by suspected Muslim radicals continue in Central Sulawesi despite deployment of 3200 extra police and soldiers. In Papua, 22 killed, including Free Papua Movement (OPM) leader Yustinus Murib, in clashes between rebels and government troops this month. Governor of West Irian Jaya, new province carved out of Papua, was formally installed by Minister of Home Affairs. Full scale military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) ongoing; military emergency declared in mid-May extended for six months on 6 November. EU, U.S. and Japan responded immediately with joint statement of concern, urging political settlement; dismissed by Jakarta as “regrettable interference”. Access to province still almost entirely closed to foreigners, including humanitarian workers. GAM called for European mediation but Jakarta has ruled out ceasefire unless rebels renounce independence demand and disarm. Communal violence erupted in Bangka, southern Sumatra, 25 November, first day of Islamic Idul Fitri festival, two dead.

Asia

Indonesia

Key Bali bomber, Ali Gufron, alias Mukhlas, convicted and sentenced to death 2 October. Abu Rusdan, alias Thoriqudin, man believed to have replaced Abu Bakar Ba’asyir as JI leader, went on trial 29 October. JI regrouping after arrests and reportedly planning new attacks. Violence linked to protests over creation of new district in Mamasa, South Sulawesi 29 September-3 October killed three. After months of relative calm in area of Central Sulawesi near Poso, gunmen attacked Christian villages 10 October, torching church and 30 homes and killing three. Further attacks later in October killed at least ten more. By end of month, police had killed six of the gunmen including one of suspected masterminds, and arrested 13. Early indications suggest possible links to JI and local jihadist groups. Peace holding in Maluku where Christian-Muslim fighting has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999. Members of Papuan provincial parliament threatened to boycott 2004 general elections if plans to divide province go ahead. Military emergency declared in Aceh in mid-May formally ends 19 November but will almost certainly be extended; military operations against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) continue, with access to province almost totally closed to foreigners, including humanitarian workers. GAM negotiators from collapsed peace talks convicted on terrorism and rebellion charges and sentenced to terms ranging from 11-15 years. Two killed in clashes between PDIP (governing party) and Golkar (opposition) supporters in Bali 26 October.

Asia

Indonesia

More than 15 men suspected of links to Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) arrested in central Java; Hambali's younger brother arrested in Karachi together with five Indonesian and 13 Malaysian suspected JI members. Abu Bakar Ba'asyir, alleged spiritual leader of JI, sentenced to four years for treason, but acquitted of leading JI – both Ba'asyir and Attorney General’s Office appealing sentence. Bali bomber Ali Imron given life sentence. Indonesian police warn that JI planning further bombings. Christian-Muslim tensions simmer in Poso. Peace seems to have held in Maluku in recent months where fighting between Christians and Muslims has claimed at least 5,000 lives since 1999; Government lifted three-year state of emergency on 15 September after new governor installed without incident. Military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) - launched mid-May after peace negotiations broke down - looks likely to continue. Indonesian military claims 900 GAM separatists, 66 military and 304 civilians killed since most recent campaign began, but independent access to verify these or other data remains highly restricted.

Asia

Indonesia

Car bomb exploded outside Jakarta’s Marriott hotel on 5 August, killing 12 and injuring over 150. Indonesian police named 5 suspects - all members of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) - on 19 August. JI operational chief Hambali, alleged mastermind of the October 2002 Bali bombing, captured in joint operation between Thai authorities and CIA on 12 August. Government suspended plan to divide province of Papua after violence broke out killing 4 between 23 - 28 August. Christian-Muslim tensions simmer in Poso after series of violent incidents in June and July. Military operation against separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) - launched mid-May after peace negotiations broke down - looks likely to continue. Current military methods appear likely to generate more support for GAM.

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