Election winner Move Forward Party faced legal and political hurdles in quest to form govt, while deadly attacks continued in deep south amid controversial student-led independence vote.

Move Forward leader battled for political survival. Following general election in May, uncertainty shrouded process for election-winning Move Forward Party and its leader Pita Limjareonrat to form new govt amid investigations into Pita by Election Commission and senate. Election Commission 9 June tossed out petition lodged 10 May by Palang Pracharath Party member alleging Pita was ineligible to run in election because he owned shares in media company, but announced it would investigate further; if convicted, Pita could face up to ten years in jail and 20-year ban from politics. Pita 6 June declared he had earlier transferred shares in defunct media company. Senate 23 June announced investigation of Pita’s assets. Aside from legal complications, Move Forward and its eight-party coalition, which command 312 seats, face political challenge of securing 376 seats in joint sitting with 250- member senate to form govt; election commission 19 June endorsed all 500 newly elected MPs, paving way for first session of new parliament in early July.

In deep south, violence continued as student group held independence referendum. In Pattani province, IED attack 5 June wounded one army officer and civilian in Saiburi district; militants 10 June killed police officer in Khok Po district; militants 17 June assaulted police base in Muang district; IED attack 21 June wounded three defence volunteers and soldier in Raman district. In Narathiwat province, gunmen 17 June ambushed four villages in Chanae district, killing one. In Yala province, IED attack 15 June wounded four police officers and civilian in Raman district. Meanwhile, student group at Prince of Songkla University in Pattani province 7 June simulated referendum on Pattani independence during seminar that included two speakers from Move Forward’s coalition. National Security Council secretary general 9 June informed PM Prayuth Chan-ocha about event and announced investigation, describing call for public referendum as “illegal”. Commander of Fourth Army Area 12 June called proposal for referendum unconstitutional and threat to nation’s territorial integrity.

Progressive opposition Move Forward Party won resounding election victory and began uncertain process of forming govt, while deadly violence continued at high levels in deep south.

Move Forward set about forming next govt. Progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) 14 May won 151 seats – including 32 of 33 Bangkok constituencies – in general election; main opposition Pheu Thai Party won 141 seats, while outgoing PM Prayuth Chan-ocha’s United Thai Nation Party and Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwon’s Palang Pracharat Party won 36 and 40 seats, respectively. MFP leader Pita Limjareonrat quickly assembled eight-party coalition comprising 313 MPs, short of 376 required in joint sitting of upper and lower houses for majority. MFP and partners 22 May released 23-point agenda, which includes drafting new constitution, ending military conscription and abolishing monopolies; MFP’s pledge to reform lèse-majesté law was absent, likely reflecting need to win over members of 250-member junta-appointed Senate in vote for next govt, likely to take place in Aug at earliest. In meantime, MFP faces hurdles to form govt, including 10 May petition of Election Commission to investigate Pita over alleged illegal holding of shares in media company and possibility that prospective coalition partner Pheu Thai could form its own coalition that includes parties from incumbent govt; prospect of establishment preventing Move Forward from forming govt raises likelihood of mass protests and potential conflict.

Militants in deep south continued violent attacks following escalation in April. In Pattani province, roadside IED 3 May targeted police vehicle in Thung Yang Daeng district, injuring four police officers. Militants 11 May carried out arson attacks in some 30 locations across Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat provinces, targeting mobile phone towers and electricity pylons. In Yala, IED 12 May killed one ranger and wounded three in Bannang Sata district; militants 16 May ambushed police vehicle in Muang district, wounding two police officers. Gunmen 22 May shot and killed Volunteer Defence Corps volunteer in Than To district, Yala. On political front, election winner MFP’s 22 May declaration included pledge to “collaborate on the process of building sustainable peace in the southern border provinces”.

Militants in deep south stepped up attacks, casting shadow over dialogue process; meanwhile, country geared up for May general election that could oust establishment parties.

Security deteriorated in deep south amid surge in militant attacks. Militants escalated violence, including with platoon-strength assaults on defence outposts rarely attempted in recent years. In Yala province, some 20 insurgents 9 April attacked security outpost in Muang district with pipe bombs, grenades and small arms. In Narathiwat province, motorcycle gunmen 9 April killed Muslim defence volunteer in Tak Bai district; militants 13 April attacked security outpost in Sungai Padi district with pipe bombs and assault rifles, wounding three police officers. In Pattani province, IED attack 19 April wounded eight police officers in two-vehicle patrol in Saiburi district. Militants 14 April conducted near-simultaneous attacks in six locations across Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala, including: IED explosion on bridge in Muang; assault on security outpost in Reusoh district, Narathiwat; drive-by shooting on security outpost at Wat Chang railway station in Khok Pho district, Pattani; pipe bomb strike on ranger outpost in Raman district, Yala; and small arms assault on police at Cho Airong railway station, Narathiwat. Escalation comes after main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) had advised Malaysian facilitator, following sixth round of Peace Dialogue Process in Feb, that it was suspending participation in dialogue until new Thai govt enters office after May general election.

Preparation for May elections continued. Ahead of 14 May general election, main opposition party Pheu Thai and progressive Future Forward Party led public opinion polls, dampening prospects for establishment parties led by incumbent leaders PM Prayuth Chan-ocha and Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan; convincing victory for opposition parties will complicate efforts by establishment parties to form new govt to preserve political status quo.

Activists ended two month-long hunger strike, king dissolved parliament ahead of May election, while insecurity persisted in deep south.

Activists concluded hunger strike, as country prepared for May election. Activists Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong 10 March ended 52-day hunger strike that demanded release of suspects detained on lèse-majesté charges and to reform lèse-majesté and sedition laws. Meanwhile, Royal Gazette 20 March announced King Maha Vajiralongkorn had endorsed decree to dissolve parliament; Election Commission next day announced 14 May as date of next general election.

Militant attacks persisted in deep south. In Narathiwat province, militants 2 March threw grenades and fired small arms at army outpost in Si Sakhon district, with no casualties; 50kg IED – twice as large as devices typically used by militants – next day targeted four-vehicle convoy some 800m from outpost, killing two officers and wounding one. In Pattani province, assailants 8 March torched two vehicles belonging to emergency medical services provider in Yaring district. Woman 11 March found IED beneath her mother’s vehicle in Mayo district; police officers removed device with no casualties.

Courts granted bail to several prisoners convicted of lèse-majesté as activists continued hunger strike, while insecurity persisted in deep south amid peace dialogue meetings.

Courts granted bail to protesters amid activists’ hunger strike. Activists Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong 27 Feb entered 40th day of hunger strike, and fourth day carrying out their protest in front of Supreme Court, demanding release of political prisoners and revocation of lèse-majesté and sedition laws; both women were charged with variety of crimes, including lèse-majesté. Courts granted several bail requests during month: notably, court 9 Feb granted bail to Sombat Thongyoi, convicted of lèse-majesté; Supreme Court 10 Feb granted bail to Sitthichok Sethasavet, convicted of lèse-majesté; Bangkok Criminal Court 17 Feb granted bail to four people jailed following June 2022 pro-democracy protest; Ratchadaphisek Criminal Court 20 Feb granted temporary release of three activists. Meanwhile, authorities indicated that general election is expected to be held on 7 May.

Deep south peace dialogue produced new plan as insecurity persisted. Malaysia’s General Zulkifli Zainal Abidin – newly appointed facilitator of peace dialogue process between main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and Thai govt – 3 Feb met head of Thai dialogue delegation General Wanlop Rugsanaoh in capital Bangkok. Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim 9-10 Feb visited Bangkok, where he expressed optimism about finding solution to instability in southern provinces. Sixth round of Joint Working Group-South Thailand Peace Dialogue 20 Feb commenced in Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur; Thailand and Malaysia next day issued statements that Thailand and BRN agreed on Joint Comprehensive Plan toward Peace with timeframe of 2023-2024. Meanwhile, in Pattani province, IEDs 2 Feb damaged two power poles in Khok Pho district; unidentified gunmen 14 Feb shot and killed retired imam in Saiburi district. In Yala Province, militants 17 Feb ambushed police officers responding to arson attacks in Bannang Sata district, killing one police officer and wounding four.

Pro-democracy activists charged with lèse-majesté went on hunger strike, while Malaysia announced new peace dialogue facilitator amid persistent violence in deep south.

Activists staged hunger strike calling for release of prisoners and revocation of lèse-majesté law. Pro-democracy activists Tantawan Tuatulanon and Orawan Phuphong 16 Jan appeared in court to revoke their own bail; two women are charged with variety of crimes, including lèse-majesté, for conducting public opinion surveys about royal motorcades. Two activists 18 Jan commenced hunger strike while detained at Central Women’s Correctional Institution, demanding release on bail of other jailed activists and revocation of lèse-majesté and sedition laws, and were taken to hospital 20 Jan. Banners same day appeared at Thammasat and Chulalongkorn universities in capital Bangkok, criticising lèse-majesté law and calling on students to defend right to free speech. Hundreds 26 Jan gathered in candlelight vigil in support of two activists. Court in Chiang Rai province same day sentenced activist Mongkhon Thirakot to 28 years in prison for Facebook posts deemed insulting to monarchy.

Malaysia appointed new dialogue facilitator amid attacks in deep south. Malaysian govt 10 Jan announced appointment of former military chief Zulkifli Zainal Abidin as chief facilitator of peace dialogue between Thai govt and main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), replacing Abdul Rahim Noor. Meanwhile, violence persisted in deep south. In Narathiwat province, militant IED attack followed by small arms fire 11 Jan targeted motorcycle-borne defence volunteers in Si Sakhon district, killing one and wounding two. Also in Si Sakhon, security forces 20 Jan killed three militants in gun battle.

Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and Thai govt resumed peace talks amid ongoing violence in deep south, while concern amplified over ill-health of princess, presumed to be royal successor.

BRN and Thai govt engaged in dialogue to resolve ongoing conflict. Main insurgent group BRN and Thai officials 7-9 Dec met in German capital Berlin; BRN 10 Dec said group and govt were drawing up “roadmap”, including provisions for safety and legal immunity of BRN representatives to facilitate consultations with locals in southernmost Thai provinces, and shared BRN’s aim of “democratic governance system”. BRN and Thai delegations’ technical teams met 19 Dec in Malaysia.

Violent attacks persisted during month in deep south. In Songkhla province, bomb 3 Dec exploded under railway tracks in Sadao district in rare attack, derailing freight train. IED 6 dec detonated at temporary command post, killing three railway workers and wounding four others. In Bannang Satar district, Yala province, unidentified assailants 6 Dec shot and killed rubber buyer. Militants 14 Dec launched two attacks in Bannang Satar sub-district; attack on security checkpoint wounded four rangers. Militants 31 Dec set fire to car tyres on major roads in Panare, Mayo and Nong Chik districts, Pattani province, as well as police checkpoint in Mayo district. Gunmen same day fired shots at army base in Yaring district, Pattani.

In other important developments. Princess Bajrakitiyabha Narendira Debyavati – widely presumed to be successor of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, despite no official confirmation – 14 Dec fell unconscious at army base in Nakhon Ratchasima province and was taken to hospital; palace next day announced princess was in stable condition. Independent journalist citing palace sources same day reported doctors had pronounced princess dead, with palace allegedly withholding announcement until after new year. Meanwhile, HTMS Sukhothai 19 Dec sank in Gulf of Thailand during storm while conducting ceremony on death anniversary of Prince of Chumphon, regarded as “Father of the Thai Navy”; as of 1 Jan, 76 of 105 passengers were rescued and 24 bodies recovered, with five still missing.

Govt hosted regional summit in capital Bangkok amid modest-sized anti-govt and pro-democracy protests, while deadly violence intensified in deep south.

Protesters held small-scale rallies around Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Ahead of APEC summit held 18-19 Nov in Bangkok, anti-govt and pro-democracy protesters, primarily led by “Ratsadon Stops APEC 2022” group, 16 Nov coalesced around Bangkok demanding Prayuth’s suspension as APEC chair, fresh election and cancellation of Bio Circular Green Economy policy. Protesters next day non-violently confronted riot police at Asoke intersection. Several hundred protesters 18 Nov gathered at City Hall Plaza to march to APEC venue; police blocked protesters near Democracy Monument, leading to scuffles that saw 25 arrests and ten injuries after police deployed force, including use of rubber bullets.

Insurgents staged multiple attacks and bombings in deep south. In Pattani province, insurgents 7 Nov opened fire on police and soldiers in Nong Chik district, killing village leader and one insurgent, and wounding two police officers. Insurgents 15 Nov bombed petrol stations in Muang district and Yaring district, firing shots to disperse bystanders and detonating IEDs near pumps. IED attack next day wounded police officer near school in Panare district. In Narathiwat province, insurgents 13 Nov detonated bomb and opened fire on Buddhist villagers in Chanae district, killing one and wounding two, then staged IED attack on armoured security forces vehicle responding to incident, killing army captain. Also in Chanae, Special Operations Task Force troops 19 Nov clashed with insurgents while on rural patrol, killing one insurgent. In Reuso district, insurgents, 16 Nov detonated two pipe bombs near security checkpoint. Militants 22 Nov detonated vehicle-borne IED at apartment block housing police officers and their families in Muang district, Narathiwat, killing one officer and wounding 31 others, including 15 civilians and three children.

Peace process in deep south remained fragile as separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) condemned murder of member and deadly attacks persisted.

BRN condemned murder of member amid ongoing violence in deep south. Main southern separatist group BRN 18 Oct issued statement on torture and murder of BRN member Zahri Bin Abdullah whose body was recovered 29 Sept on Thai side of Kolok River, which marks Thailand-Malaysia border, after he had been “picked up in Rantau Panjang” in Kelantan, Malaysia; group said murder would adversely affect dialogue process and decried failure to provide security guarantees to BRN delegation members. BRN 30 Oct issued statement via Twitter that reiterated commitment to peace process, sharing relevant documents such as “General Principles of the Peace Dialogue Process”. Meanwhile, in Pattani province, gunmen 4 Oct ambushed police officer driving in Saiburi district, wounding officer. In Yala province, gunman 15 Oct killed assistant village chief in Bannang Sata district as victim arrived at mosque. In Narathiwat province, IED 21 Oct targeted vehicle carrying rangers and defence volunteers in Chanae district, wounding five patrol members.

Thailand abstained from UN vote condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine. Govt 12 Oct abstained on UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine as other members of regional body ASEAN except Laos and Vietnam voted in favour; govt had approved similar resolution in March. Thai Ambassador and UN Permanent Representative Suriya Chindawongse justified abstention with reference to “an extremely volatile and emotionally charged atmosphere”, while observers pointed to govt’s desire for Russian President Putin to attend Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation’s summit in capital Bangkok next month.

Pro-democracy demonstrators protested against govt as Constitutional Court ruled that PM Prayuth could remain in post, while attacks continued in deep south.

Amid anti-govt protests, court ruled PM Prayuth could stay in post. Pro-democracy protest group Kana Lomruam Prachachon 4 Sept held protest against govt involving hundreds in central Bangkok, following late Aug protests calling for resignations of Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan and Interior Minister Anupong Paochinda; protests developed amid PM Prayuth Chan-ocha’s suspension from PM’s duties in Aug pending outcome of case to determine when his term in office began. Constitutional Court 30 Sept ruled that Prayuth could remain PM as his eight-year term limit began with promulgation of constitution in April 2017.

Curtailment of peaceful dissent continued. Bangkok court 12 Sept sentenced political activist Jatuporn “New” Saeoueng under lèse-majesté law to two years prison for insulting monarchy by allegedly impersonating queen at 2020 protest.

In deep south, insurgent attacks continued. Gunmen on motorcycles 12 Sept killed elderly rubber tapper couple in Muang district, Yala province. IED 20 Sept targeting police patrol detonated in front of hospital in Mai Kaen district, Pattani province, killing one police officer and wounding four others.