CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Snap election announced after Uzbeks voted overwhelmingly in favour of constitutional reforms; China sought closer ties with Central Asian countries during “milestone” summit.

President announced snap election following constitutional referendum. Central Election Commission 1 May announced that 30 April referendum on President Mirziyoev’s proposed constitutional amendments had passed with over 90% of voters approving reforms. In 1 May statement, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said referendum “was technically well prepared and widely promoted as intending to enhance various rights and freedoms” but took place “in an environment short of genuine political pluralism and competition”. Mirziyoev 8 May announced snap election in July, which he is widely expected to win, saying he requires new mandate to implement reforms.

Central Asian leaders attended China summit following Russia trip. Leaders from all five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – 9 May travelled to Russian capital Moscow for Russia’s Victory Day parade, which marks Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. Chinese President Xi Jinping 18-19 May hosted Central Asian leaders in north-western Xian city for “milestone” China-Central Asia Summit. In sign of Beijing’s growing influence in region, Xi unveiled ambitious development plan that includes building infrastructure, boosting trade and strengthening security networks.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Uzbeks voted on proposed constitutional amendments.

After lawmakers mid-March backed referendum on constitutional amendments proposed by President Mirziyoev, which among other things would allow him to seek third term in office and extend presidential term from five to seven years, Uzbeks 30 April began voting, amid expectations referendum will endorse proposals.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Lawmakers voted in favour of April referendum on new constitution; prosecutors handed down lengthy sentences to 39 Karakalpak activists.

Lawmakers backed referendum on constitutional amendments. Months after President Mirziyoyev first proposed constitutional amendments that, among other things, allow him to seek third term in office, lawmakers 10 March overwhelmingly backed proposed amendments and voted in favour of referendum, provisionally set for 30 April; Senate 15 March approved bill and confirmed date of referendum.

Authorities handed down more sentences to Karakalpak activists. Court in Bukhara city 17 March sentenced 39 Karakalpak activists to between five and 11 years in prison for their participation in July 2022 protests in autonomous Karakalpakstan region, which broke out in response to govt’s proposed constitutional amendment that would have ended region’s right to seek independence.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Legal proceedings over Karakalpakstan unrest continued, and U.S. sought to deepen engagement in region.

More trials following Karakalpakstan unrest took place. After authorities late Jan charged 22 Karakalpak activists with instigating deadly violence in autonomous Karakalpakstan region in July 2022, authorities 6 Feb announced that one had died while in custody; in following days, exiled activists raised concerns about prison conditions and demanded an investigation. Bukhara city regional court 6 Feb opened trial for 39 more activists for similar charges of inciting unrest in Karakalpakstan. General Prosecutor’s Office 9 Feb announced arrest of three police officers amid investigation into police misconduct during protests.

U.S. pledged deeper engagement in region. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 28 Feb held talks with FMs from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, amid U.S. efforts to deepen engagement in region; Blinken announced $25mn of new funding to support economic growth.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

President finalised border delimitation agreement with Kyrgyz counterpart; prosecutors handed down lengthy prison term for Karakalpak activist.

Uzbek and Kyrgyz leaders completed border delimitation process. During two-day trip to Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, President Mirziyoev and Kyrgyz counterpart Sadyr Japarov 27 Jan signed over 20 documents aimed at strengthening bilateral relations. Most notably, leaders finalised border delimitation agreement, which Japarov hailed as “truly historic event”.

Court sentenced Karakalpak activists to between three and 16 years in prison. During trial of 22 people charged with instigating deadly violence in autonomous Karakalpakstan region in July 2022, prosecutors 11 Jan called for 20 defendants to receive sentences of between five and 18 years. Bukhara city regional court 31 Jan sentenced lawyer and journalist Dauletmurat Tajimuratov to 16 years in prison. Court sentenced 15 others to prison terms of between three and eight and a half years, released five and handed one a suspended prison sentence.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Authorities stressed that Russian proposal for “gas union” with Kazakhstan contains no “political conditions”.

Following Russian proposal late Nov to form “gas union” with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, aimed at facilitating shipments between three countries, speculation grew around Moscow’s political objectives amid its ongoing war in Ukraine. Energy Minister Jorabek Mirzamahmudov 7 Dec sought to ease fears, saying any agreement to import gas is “a commercial, sales contract. We will never agree to political conditions in exchange for gas”. Russia’s govt 9 Dec emphasised that “there are no political conditions here” and that Russia’s only consideration in proposing union is “the commercial interests of the three countries”.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Authorities signed agreements with Kyrgyzstan on border delimitation; trial against Karakalpak activists began.

Uzbek and Kyrgyz authorities signed border delimitation deal. FM Vladimir Norov and Kyrgyz counterpart Jeenbek Kulubaev 2 Nov signed agreements on border delimitation in Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, including deal on joint management of Kempir-Abad water reservoir, vital water source that lies between Andijan region and Kyrgyzstan’s Osh region, and flashpoint for domestic Kyrgyz opposition (see Kyrgyzstan). Kyrgyz lawmakers 17 Nov ratified deal giving Uzbekistan ownership of reservoir in return for 19,000 hectares of land elsewhere along border; Uzbek Senate following day approved agreement. Both countries’ presidents must give final approval before deal is authorised.

Karakalpak activists arrested during July protests went on trial. Bukhara provincial court 28 Nov began hearings in trial of 22 people charged with inciting deadly July protests in autonomous Karakalpakstan region against proposed constitutional amendments. Meanwhile, ombudsman’s office 1 Nov announced release of 35 activists arrested during July protests; 516 people were arrested at time, of which 107 have been released.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Authorities neared deal with Kyrgyzstan on definitive border delimitation.

Following breakthrough deal in March 2021 with Kyrgyzstan to resolve longstanding border disputes, both sides drew closer to agreement on definitive delimitation of shared border. However, frustration mounted in Kyrgyzstan among border communities over govt’s decision to hand ownership of Kempir-Abad reservoir, vital water source that lies between Andijan region and Kyrgyzstan’s Osh region, to Uzbekistan in return for land (see Kyrgyzstan).

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Amid Russia’s annexation of occupied territories in Ukraine, govt released statement on respecting “sovereignty” and “territorial integrity; Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit held.

Authorities pledged respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity amid Russia’s annexation plans. In response to developments in Ukraine, notably Russia’s annexation of four occupied territories (see Ukraine), foreign ministry 30 Sept reiterated position that “Uzbekistan is invariably committed in the implementation of its foreign policy to national interests, fundamental principles, including openness, equality, respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, non-interference in the internal affairs of other states” and called for “resolving the current situation through political and diplomatic means in accordance with the norms of international law”.

Govt hosted Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. Uzbekistan 15-16 Sept hosted leaders from 13 countries for SCO summit in Samarkand city with “agenda to strengthen security, trade and innovative cooperation”. Attendees included SCO members China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia and Tajikistan; presidents of Belarus, Iran and Mongolia attended as observers, while those from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Türkiye attended as invited partners. Türkiye’s participation in summit as only NATO member, along with President Erdoğan’s expressed interest 15 Sept in joining SCO, further strained ties between Ankara and western partners.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Calm prevailed in Karakalpakstan as President Mirziyoyev appointed new leader to head region following July’s deadly protests. Following deadly protests early July in autonomous Karakalpakstan region in response to govt’s proposed constitutional amendments, govt 1 Aug closed public consultation period on proposed amendments; commission said parliamentary committee will review feedback and amend accordingly before referendum on constitution is held. President Mirziyoyev 26 Aug appointed Amanbai Orynbaev to lead Karakalpakstan, accusing region’s previous leadership of “failure to find solutions to individual socio-economic problems”, which he said were “at root of the events of two months ago”; predecessor Murat Kamalov same day stepped down, citing health issues. Military participated in U.S.-sponsored military exercise, Regional Cooperation 22, 10-20 Aug in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe, alongside U.S., Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Pakistan (see Tajikistan).

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.