CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Political crisis following 3 October presidential election in breakaway region of Abkhazia led Abkhaz Supreme Court to order repeat election within 2 months. Controversial decision came 29 October, just after Court had declared opposition candidate Sergei Bagapsh winner with 50.32% of vote, defeating government candidate Raul Khajimba. Court’s reversal allegedly came after pressure from Khajimba’s supporters. In South Ossetia, 2 Ossetian peacekeepers killed 12 October. Media reported deaths came after Georgian security forces conducted special operation in conflict zone to stop group sabotaging Georgian electric lines. Joint Control Commission co-chairs met Tbilisi 20 October; agreed talks between Georgian PM Zurab Zhvania and South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity to take place in Sochi no later than 10 November.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tensions remain high despite Georgian military’s August withdrawal from South Ossetian conflict zone; South Ossetia accused Tbilisi 17 September of massing troops on internal border in preparation for new attack. Meanwhile, in wake of Beslan killings, Russia said Chechen terrorists remain in Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge, raising fears of possible Russian military action. Presidential election in separatist Abkhazia region set for 3 October.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Fighting between Georgian and South Ossetian forces intensified, leaving around 20 Georgian troops and at least 5 Ossetians dead. Risk of escalation in violence remains, despite announced reduction of Georgian troops in conflict zone to 500 – maximum allowed under 1992 peace agreement establishing joint peacekeeping force. Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili lashed out at alleged Russian support to South Ossetia; called for international conference leading to demilitarisation of region and introduction of international peacekeeping force; expansion of OSCE mandate in separatist region; and joint Russian- Georgian border and customs checks at Roki tunnel, major route connecting Russia and South Ossetia. Tensions also worsened vis-à-vis separatist Abkhazia region, as Saakashvili ordered Georgian naval vessels to fire on ships travelling illegally in Georgian territorial waters along Abkhaz coast.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Risk of conflict remains high as Tbilisi continues to pressure breakaway region of South Ossetia in hopes of reuniting it with rest of country. Sides exchanged small arms and artillery fire 29-30 July. Georgia intercepted Russian military convoy in region and confiscated equipment 7 July. Several dozen Georgian troops captured by South Ossetia next day; all but 3 later released. Armed skirmishes and war of words continued throughout month. Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili threatened to renege on 12-year-old agreement that ended original conflict, and called for change in mandate of Russian peacekeepers, who he accused of bias toward South Ossetia. Georgia seeking to apply economic pressure on Ossetian leadership through control of Roki tunnel, major trade and smuggling route connecting Russia and South Ossetia.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tensions rose between Tbilisi and South Ossetia, as President Mikheil Saakashvili, following successful May resolution of crisis with Ajara region, began manoeuvring to bring second of Georgia’s 3 breakaway regions (other is Abkhazia) under central control. Georgian troops cut off major smuggling route, heavily damaging on South Ossetian economy, while Tbilisi offered Ossetian citizens pensions and aid. South Ossetia alleged Tbilisi massing troops on internal border; Tbilisi said Russia supporting and equipping South Ossetia. In Abkhazia, several senior officials, including acting foreign minister and head of security services, resigned following assassination of opposition leader Garri Ayba. President Saakashvili’s party won sweeping victory - with over 77% of vote - in 20 June parliamentary election in Ajara.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Crisis with Ajara resolved peacefully 6 May with resignation and departure for Moscow of Aslan Abashidze, region's authoritarian leader. After weeks of mounting tension between Abashidze and Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, crisis came to head 2 May as 3 bridges linking Ajara to rest of country blown up on Abashidze's orders; local support for Abashidze fell away; Russia played constructive role. Saakashvili set 20 June date for new elections in Ajara, vowed to preserve region's autonomy. Attention now shifting to Georgia's other breakaway republics, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Officials there concerned Saakashvili will move to bring both regions under Tbilisi's control. Latter quoted as saying unification would take 2 years for Abkhazia, significantly less for South Ossetia. Tensions briefly rose as Georgian troops deployed to village of Tkviavi, 10km from Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, but troops quickly withdrawn.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Civil conflict potentially imminent as standoff between President Mikheil Saakashvili and authoritarian leader of Ajara region Aslan Abashidze worsened. Saakashvili said Tbilisi not afraid to use force to "liberate" Ajarans from Abashidze's "criminal" rule, as Georgian military began exercises 30 April at Black Sea port of Poti, 30km from Ajara. Abashidze ordered mobilisation of forces in response to growing tensions, and Ajaran police used truncheons to suppress anti-Abashidze protest 30 April in Batumi. Central Election Commission (CEC) annulled 28 March parliamentary election results from 2 districts of Ajara after declaring them fraudulent and abandoning plans to repeat vote. Results leave Abashidze's Revival Party severely weakened, with only 6 seats in 150-seat parliament.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Standoff between Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili and leader of autonomous region of Ajara, Aslan Abashidze, ended 18 March after latter reportedly made key concessions, averting for moment feared civil conflict. After being denied entry to Ajara by armed supporters of Abashidze, Saakashvili had imposed economic blockade on region, demanding entry, release of opposition activists detained by Ajaran authorities, and promise that 28 March parliamentary elections would be conducted freely and fairly in Ajara. Deal ending standoff apparently mediated by Russia, which has military base in Ajara. International observers reported 28 March elections were most democratic in country’s history, though widespread irregularities reported in Ajara. Preliminary results indicated only 1 opposition party, New Rightists/Industrialists, reached controversial 7% threshold required to enter parliament. Tension between Saakashvili and Abashidze continues to pose risk of future violence.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Parliament approved constitutional amendments strengthening powers of presidency and creating post of prime minister. Amendments criticised as undemocratic and aimed solely at installing Zurab Zhvania, Minister of State, as PM. Parliament also approved new cabinet – one of Europe’s youngest. Government’s aggressive anti-corruption campaign continued. Son-in-law of former president Eduard Shevardnadze arrested aboard plane bound for Paris on suspicion of tax evasion. Reports of media intimidation and police abuses raising some concern. Council of Europe Secretary General Walter Schwimmer urged lowering of 7% threshold for political party representation in parliament under proportional voting system, as legislature could have only single party following 28 March elections. In Ajara, authoritarian leader Aslan Abashidze under growing pressure from opposition groups; claimed Tbilisi preparing armed invasion of breakaway region. Separatist republic of Abkhazia sent delegation to Tbilisi for talks on resolving dispute, but refused to participate in 17-18 February negotiations in Geneva.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Mikheil Saakashvili received over 96% of vote in 4 January presidential election, reported by international and local observers to have been significantly fairer than 2 November parliamentary vote: inaugurated 25 January amid festive atmosphere in Tbilisi. New parliamentary election set for 28 March. Following Saakashvili victory, Aslan Abashidze, authoritarian leader of Ajara region, reimposed state of emergency and arrested members of pro-Saakashvili youth organisation, Kmara. Indications Abashidze’s regime weakening vis à vis Tbilisi; following conciliatory gestures from both sides, tensions high in anticipation of move by Abashidze’s opponents, backed by Tbilisi, to oust him. U.S. said would help pay for closure of Russian military bases in Georgia, including one in Ajara, after Russia claimed withdrawal would take 11 years. Following meeting with UN special envoy Heidi Tagliavini, Abkhaz foreign minister said ready to resume peace talks with Tbilisi. Turkey seeking mediation role.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.