Amid ongoing opposition-led protests, U.S. imposed sanctions targeting Russian “influence operations”; tensions ran high with Russia amid airspace violation and gas supply worries.

Opposition-led protests prompted U.S. sanctions targeting Kremlin. Protests that began in Sept denouncing high inflation and fuel prices and demanding resignation of President Maia Sandu and pro-EU govt continued throughout month in capital Chisinau. Notably, estimated 7,000 protesters 23 Oct marched through capital and created new tent camp, removed 10 Oct by police. Members of opposition Shor Party, who maintain links to Russia, have been main organisers behind demonstrations, hinting at Kremlin’s role in protests to destabilise country. Amid growing concerns, U.S. 26 Oct imposed sanctions on over 20 individuals and entities to counter Russia’s “persistent malign influence campaigns and systemic corruption in Moldova”.

Authorities accused Moscow of violating country’s airspace. Deputy PM Nicu Popescu 10 Oct announced that three missiles launched on Ukraine from Russian ships in Black Sea crossed Moldova’s airspace; Russia offered no official explanation for incident. Meanwhile, govt 7 Oct extended state of emergency imposed in Feb following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by 60 days.

Concerns grew over Russian gas supplies. Amid soaring gas prices in wake of Ukraine war, Russian gas supplier Gazprom – which Moldova relies almost entirely on for gas – 4 Oct threatened to cut gas supplies if country failed to comply with its payment obligations by 20 Oct; one lawmaker said move was “another element of soft blackmailing Moldova for its European course”. Govt 20 Oct said Gazprom refused to tell Chisinau how much gas it would provide in Nov, citing supply issues due to Ukraine, further straining relations.

As thousands of protesters called for president’s resignation, speculation mounted over possible Russian involvement.

Opposition-led protests against escalatory prices amid Ukraine war spread. Thousands of protesters 9, 18 and 25 Sept took to streets denouncing high inflation and soaring fuel prices in wake of Ukraine war; also demanded resignation of President Maia Sandu and her govt, which has promised to secure EU membership and crackdown on corruption since 2020 electoral victory, and early parliamentary elections. Populist opposition party Sor organised demonstrations; party is led by MP, businessman and fugitive Ilan Shor, sentenced in 2017 for money laundering and large-scale banking fraud. MPs from Sor Party 9 Sept met Chairman of Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs Leonid Slutsky in Moscow. Slutsky 24 Sept called Ilan Shor and Sor Party Russia’s “reliable partners”, prompting many to speculate about Kremlin’s possible role in protests to help destabilise country.

Amid fears of Ukraine war spillover, President Sandu sought to advance EU membership bid, while Western states signalled greater support for govt. Following meeting with President Sandu in capital Chisinau, European Council President Charles Michel 4 May pledged increased military support to country, vowed to “help Moldova strengthen its resilience and cope with the consequences of the spillover from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine”. Referring to incidents when de facto interior ministry of breakaway territory Transnistria 5 April reported attack on de facto security ministry allegedly involving grenade-launchers, Sandu said “we see no imminent risk right now” despite recent “provocations” in April in breakaway Transnistria; EU Parliament 5 May adopted resolution urging govt to be granted candidate status for admission to bloc; Sandu 18 May addressed EU Parliament, urging member states to support country’s membership bid. UN Sec Gen Antonio Guterres 9 May visited Chisinau, said country is Ukraine’s “most fragile neighbour”. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines 10 May said Russia intends to establish land bridge from Crimean Peninsula to Transnistria. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss 21 May called for Moldova to be “equipped to NATO standard”. Meanwhile, Moldovan authorities 24 May reportedly detained head of pro-Russian opposition party and former president Igor Dodon on corruption charges. De facto authorities in Transnistria 13 May reported that unidentified assailants targeted with Molotov cocktails oil depot and conscription office in de facto regional capital Tiraspol.

Unknown assailants launched armed attack on de facto ministry in breakaway Transnistria, as concerns rose incident could signal spillover from Ukraine war. De facto interior ministry of breakaway territory Transnistria – located along Ukrainian border and controlled by Russian-speaking separatists since 1992 – 25 April reported attack on de facto security ministry allegedly involving grenade-launchers; no casualties reported. Moldova’s foreign ministry same day said aim of incident “is to create pretexts for straining the security situation in the Transnistrian region”. Ukrainian intelligence directorate 26 April said incident “is one of a number of acts of provocation organised by [Russian intelligence services] to incite panic and anti-Ukrainian sentiment” and “justify the war on the territory of Ukraine in order to involve the [Transnistrian] region in combat”. De facto head of region Vadim Krasnoselsky 26 April said “traces of these attacks lead to Ukraine”. Russian major general 22 April reportedly said Russian control of southern Ukraine could provide access to Transnistria, where estimated 1,500 Russian troops are stationed.

Amid ongoing political tensions, President Maia Sandu called for parliamentary elections in July; meanwhile, news reports revealed Russian military activity in Transnistria. Following 31 March vote by deputies of Socialist Party led by ex-President Dodon and Pentru Moldova platform to impose state of emergency until 30 May, Constitutional Court 28 April stated decision violated the law, clearing way for snap elections. In response, Dodon same day criticised court decision and called for “political response to usurpers who want to set up external control”. Maia Sandu 28 April dissolved parliament and scheduled early elections for 11 July; since her Nov 2020 victory as president over her main political rival Dodon, Sandu had been unable to nominate PM supporting her. Polls 21 April showed “The Action and Solidarity” party (which backs current president) ahead of Dodon-led Socialists. Meanwhile, amid growing tensions between Kyiv and Moscow (see Ukraine), Russian soldiers carried out up to seven military drills in country’s breakaway region of Transnistria in April. Ukrainian judge Mykola Chaus, wanted for bribery in Ukraine, 3 April was abducted in capital Chisinau, causing tensions in country’s relations with Kyiv.

Constitutional Court 7 May cancelled parliament’s approval of Russian loan totalling €200mn over ten years, ruling credit agreement unconstitutional. European Parliament 15 May approved proposal for emergency assistance to ten countries to overcome economic consequences of COVID-19 pandemic; Moldova will receive €100mn.

Coalition govt led by pro-Western PM Sandu collapsed 12 Nov after losing no-confidence vote prompted by disagreement on how to appoint prosecutor general. Parliament 14 Nov approved new govt led by former finance minister Ion Chicu, nominated by pro-Russian President Dodon, to have transitional role until elections.

Following creation of coalition govt in June, European Commission 15 July said it would unlock €14.5mn in financial aid citing “progress on issues which are linked to the disbursement of money”, and proceeded to disburse funds 23 July. During 24 July visit to Brussels, new PM Maia Sandu signed three financial assistance agreements worth total of €40.25mn with EU enlargement commissioner Johannes Hahn, who lauded new anti-corruption efforts; EU had cut aid to govt in Nov amid concerns of democratic backsliding. Authorities 26 July issued national arrest warrant for oligarch Ilan Shor, who allegedly organised theft of €0.9bn from banking sector in 2014.

New coalition govt formed, unblocking three months of deadlock since no party or coalition won absolute majority in Feb legislative elections. Pro-European integration Party of Action and Solidarity (ACUM) and pro-Russian Socialist Party 8 June formed coalition, enabling it to form govt during extraordinary parliamentary session and nominated ACUM leader Maia Sandu to prime minister. Former ruling Democratic Party same day appealed against move to constitutional court, which declared new govt invalid, arguing that deadline to form govt had passed 7 June, 90 days after certification of elections. Court 9 June temporarily suspended President Igor Dodon, Socialist Party leader, reportedly to allow then interim PM Filip to dissolve parliament and issue decree calling for snap election; Dodon and ACUM leader Maia Sandu, however ignored verdict. PM Filip resigned 14 June; VP of his Democratic Party, Vladimir Cebotari, said decision was made to “avoid an escalation that could lead to violence”. Constitutional court next day overturned its earlier decision and recognised new govt led by PM Sandu; all six judges of constitutional court resigned 26 June.

Preliminary results of 24 Feb parliamentary elections saw pro-Russia Socialist Party win 35 out of 101 seats, ruling Democrats 30 seats and pro-European ACUM 26 seats, with turnout reported at 49%. Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors 25 Feb declared elections “competitive” but “tainted by allegations of pressure on public employees, strong indications of vote buying and the misuse of state resources”. Media reported dozens of buses from pro-Russia breakaway region Transnistria – where vote was not held – brought over 30,000 voters, allegedly paid to cast ballots.