CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Growing schism of former KLA along regional lines. Former west Kosovo KLA commander and Alliance for the Future of Kosovo leader Ramush Haradinaj’s coalition deal with Ibrahim Rugova’s Democratic League of Kosovo angered central Kosovo KLA circles and Kosovo Democratic Party (PDK) members; locks PDK out of government. Parliament to vote on coalition deal early December. Mass Pristina protest 22 November attested to growing Kosovo Albanian anger toward ICTY and international community: former PDK deputy leader Fatmir Limaj and 2 other former KLA members on trial in Hague; possible Haradinaj indictment before year-end likely to provoke reaction from supporters. UNMIK ruled out blocking Haradinaj as PM. Serbian media forecast repeat of March riots. Head of UN Mission in Kosovo Soren Jessen-Petersen announced approval of 3 new ministries, giving marginally more power to province's government. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan decided against Eide report’s advice that steps preparatory to final status talks needed prior to summer 2005.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Peaceful, well-conducted 23 October parliamentary elections marred by Kosovo Serb boycott. Pro-boycott stance of Serbian government, Orthodox Church and Kosovo Serb hardliners resulted in less than 1% of Serbs voting – humiliating moderate Kosovo Serb politicians who took part, and sweeping aside Serbian president Tadic’s 5 October call to vote. President Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League of Kosova won 45% of vote; Hashim Thaci's Democratic Party 28%; Ramush Haradinaj's Alliance for the Future of Kosova 8%; Veton Surroi's new political party, ORA, 6%. Results suggest lengthy coalition talks needed to form new government. Britain's minister for Europe, Denis MacShane, enunciated international policy shift towards Kosovo as standards ‘and’ status, rather than standards ‘before’ status.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Contact Group and UN Secretary General Kofi Annan agreed new position on Kosovo following meeting 22 September; appeared to rule out return to Belgrade rule, authorising further transfer of competencies to Kosovo government - but so far not endorsing UN envoy Kai Eide’s recommendations to expedite preparations for final status process. NATO sent 2,000 extra troops to boost security for 23 October parliamentary elections. French General Yves de Kermabon assumed command of KFOR 1 September. Belgrade and Pristina representatives met 27-28 September in Vienna, for consultations on decentralisation. Belgrade provocatively appointed hard-line Milosevic loyalists to key posts in Kosovo's illegal parallel structures; yet to approve Serbian participation in Kosovo's elections.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

New head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Soren Jessen-Petersen, arrived 15 August. Declared priorities of preparing Kosovo for final status and more transfer of competencies to Kosovo government. Belgrade urged Kosovo Serbs to boycott 23 October parliamentary elections, unless its plan for territorial division of Kosovo accepted. Security Council session on Kosovo 5 August urged Serbs to take part. KFOR dismissed 23 August Serbian security service (BIA) claim that extremists preparing to attack Kosovo Serbs. Contact Group to deliberate on recommendations of UN envoy Kai Eide for institutional transformation and progress towards final status talks.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Parliament challenged UN by adopting changes to constitution 8 July; included right to call referendum on independence and to assume control of international relations and public security from UN. To become law amendments must be signed by Head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Senior figures from Serb and Albanian communities called for establishment of new ministry for refugees and human rights, surprising UN. Tensions reported inside President Rugova’s LDK party over election list and emergence of shadowy internal security structure: “Homeland Security”. New UN head of mission, Soren Jessen-Petersen, scheduled to take office 3 August. Drastic summer electricity and water cuts possibly worst in 5 years of UN governance.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

International community policies and Kosovo Albanian expectations remain on collision course. PM Bajram Rexhepi threatened unilateral declaration of independence or referendum call if no progress toward resolving Kosovo’s final status by September 2005, while former leader of Kosovo Liberation Army, Hashim Thaci, voiced dissatisfaction with status quo. Serb teenager killed 5 June in apparent attempt to rekindle March violence. EU envoy to Macedonia, Søren Jessen- Petersen, named by UN to replace resigned Head of UN Mission in Kosovo Harri Holkeri.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Harri Holkeri, resigned 25 May on grounds of ill health leaving power vacuum and growing uncertainty. Arrest of former KLA commander Sami Lushtaku for March riots provoked unrest then mass celebrations in Drenica region upon his release. Provisional Institutions of Self-Government (PISG) and trade unions demanded UNMIK resume privatisation process, suspended last year. Nature of Serbian autonomy within decentralised Kosovo continued to raise questions; PISG leaders dismissed Serbian plan for 5 autonomous Serb regions. PDK proposed Macedonia’s Ohrid Agreement as decentralisation model, but other Kosovo Albanian parties denounced proposal. World Bank report acknowledged Kosovo’s unresolved status preventing economic growth.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

NATO reviewing peacekeeping mission after 17-18 March violence. Blame ascribed variously to UNMIK, KFOR, Kosovo media, politicians and international policies. International prosecutor in Kosovo found no evidence Serbs responsible for deaths of 3 Albanian children who drowned in Ibar River, which led to wave of Albanian violence against Serbs 17 March. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan met 27 April with Kosovo President Rugova, who pressed for immediate independence. General boycott of all Kosovo institutions by Serb politicians continued, in part to protest ineffective response by the international community to March events. Jordanian UN police officer opened fire on convoy carrying international prison officers in Mitrovica 17 April. In ensuing gunfight Jordanian and 3 U.S. officers killed, 11 injured.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Worst inter-ethnic violence since 1999, 17-18 March. Across Kosovo Albanian mobs attacked Serb minority. UNMIK also targeted. Security forces overwhelmed and disorganised in face of 33 major riots in which 50,000 participated, some using firearms. Some 19 killed, 900 wounded. 800 houses and 30 churches and monasteries destroyed or damaged. Initial clashes in Mitrovica sparked by media reports that Serb youths caused 3 Albanian boys to drown. Near Pristina, mobs and security forces fought pitched battle at Caglavica village, where Serbs had blockaded highway south to Macedonia after 16 March shooting of young Serb. Riots seen as hysterical explosion of Albanians’ frustrations – unresolved future, mass unemployment, blocked privatisation, apparent delegitimisation of liberation struggle, and fear that Belgrade being allowed to regain upper hand over them. Security forces arrested 200, but UN and Contact Group resumption of previous policies together with deteriorating relations between Kosovo Albanians and international personnel seen as possibly risking further, more violent explosion.

Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

UNMIK prodded Kosovo’s provisional institutions (PISG) toward renewed dialogue with Belgrade and reactivated UNMIK-Belgrade high working group although Belgrade still lacked government after recent elections. UNMIK and PISG completed joint draft standards implement ation plan while Kosovo Serbs maintained boycott. UNMIK chief Holkeri’s warning of final status review delay beyond mid-2005 if standards not met drew threat from Prime Minister Rexhepi of unilateral action. Stalling of privatisation continued to strain UNMIK-PISG relations. Two Kosovo Serbs shot dead near Lipjan 19 February. Environment minister Ethem Ceku survived car bombing. Prizren Kosovo Protection Corps commander arrested 16 February for war crimes. Kosovo Protection Corps commander Agim Ceku detained in Budapest on Serbian Interpol warrant, then released 29 February.

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