Moscow pummelled Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles as attacks and subversive activities on Russian soil escalated; Zelenskyy secured further military assistance and stepped up diplomatic efforts toward non-Western leaders.

Russia intensified airstrikes but faced sharp escalation of attacks on its territory. Moscow scaled up airstrikes on Ukrainian cities, firing Iranian-made drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles simultaneously from different directions in increasingly complex attacks. Dense air defence prevented mass casualties, though falling debris caused several fatalities, injuries and damages to infrastructure, including to Kyiv-based Patriot air defence system. Head of military intelligence 29 May promised to respond; multiple drones, presumably Ukrainian, next day struck Russian capital amid rise in subversive activities and attacks on Russian soil, particularly affecting its border regions (see Russia). Meanwhile, Russian President Putin 20 May claimed victory in Bakhmut city after nearly eight-month battle; Ukraine 21 May insisted its forces retained small foothold inside city and were advancing along city’s flanks. Paramilitary Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin 22 May vowed to withdraw Wagner units from Bakhmut by 1 June, 23 May said 20,000 fighters killed in fighting. Meanwhile, top Ukrainian commander 29 May said counteroffensive due to start soon.

Zelenskyy secured more military aid, sought support of non-Western states. President Zelenskyy mid-May toured number of Western capitals, securing military assistance from Germany, France and UK. U.S. 19 May said it would allow other countries to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter jets, including U.S.-made F-16s, said U.S. air force would help train pilots; Russian FM 27 May warned fighter jets represented “unacceptable escalation”. Zelenskyy stepped up diplomatic activity toward non-Western leaders to win support for goal of expelling all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, 19 May attending Arab League Summit in Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah city, 20 May meeting with Indian PM Modi. Meanwhile, Turkish President Erdoğan 17 May announced 60-day Black Sea Grain deal extension.

In other important developments. Authorities 16 May arrested high court judge on suspicion of accepting bribes from exiled oligarch awaiting extradition. Govt 9 May introduced bill that would lower age by which men must have registered with conscription offices from 27 to 25, widening recruitment pool for army.

As expectations for long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive grew, fresh Russian shelling killed and injured dozens; Moscow may deploy long-range weapons in the coming weeks, causing more civilian suffering.

Russia shelled Ukrainian cities, further high-casuality attacks possible. Russian army and air force ramped up efforts to capture Bakhmut city alongside paramilitary Wagner Group fighters, gaining ground from Ukrainian forces. Wagner’s head Yevgeny Prigozhin 29 April threatened to withdraw his troops from city unless Moscow sends more ammunition. Meanwhile, expectations for Ukrainian counteroffensive grew, though leaked classified U.S. documents revealed scepticism among U.S. officials about offensive’s chances of success. Reports 22 April emerged that Ukraine was establishing forward positions on Russian-held left bank of Dnipro River near Kherson (south).Fresh Russian shelling across Ukrainian cities late April killed and injured dozens. Russia may use more long-range weapons in coming weeks to undermine Ukrainian morale.

President Zelenskyy requested air defence assistance. Ahead of 21 April Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Germany’s Ramstein Air Base, President Zelenskyy called for air defence assistance amid fears depleted air defence munitions could facilitate Russian sorties into Ukrainian-held territory and intensified use of bombers over Ukrainian cities; meeting yielded no major announcements. Netherlands and Denmark 20 April announced they would send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

More evidence of Wagner atrocities in Ukraine emerged. Russian human rights group Gulagu 12 April interviewed escaped Wagner mercenary Andrei Medvedev, who attributed brutal video purportedly showing beheading of Ukrainian prisoner of war to Wagner. Two former Russian convicts who fought with Wagner 17 April admitted to killing civilians near Bakhmut; Wagner’s head Evgeniy Prigozhin denied claims.

In other important developments. During China visit, Brazilian President Lula 14 April proposed peace model in which Russia returns all Ukrainian territory aside from Crimea, a non-starter for Kyiv; Lula criticised Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty, though his remarks suggesting both countries bore responsibility for conflict drew criticism from West. Chinese President Xi 26 April spoke to Zelenskyy for first time since invasion. Meanwhile, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Bulgaria 15-17 April introduced grain bans from Ukraine, saying cheaper Ukrainian agricultural imports had lowered prices for local farmers.

Poland and Slovakia pledged fighter jets as battle for Bakhmut wore on, new revelations about Nord Stream pipeline blasts emerged, and UN presented evidence of war crimes.

Russian advance into Bakhmut ground on, missile barrage killed scores. Russian forces and paramilitary Wagner Group fighters continued to slowly encroach on embattled town of Bakhmut; Ukraine still controls around one third of town, which President Zelenskyy 6 March vowed to keep defending. Russia 9 March carried out its biggest air raid in months, killing at least nine and disrupting power supplies. In occupied Melitopol city (Zaporizhzhia region), car bomb 14 March killed Russian-installed official amid ongoing partisan attacks; Ukrainian forces 29 March reportedly shelled city, damaging electricity supply. Defence Ministry 21 March said explosion in Russian-annexed Crimea destroyed Russian missiles, but did not claim responsibility; Russia claimed attack targeted civilians. Meanwhile, media outlet The New York Times 7 March revealed pro-Ukrainian nationals may have blown up Nord Stream pipelines in Sept 2022; German news site t-online 26 March presented evidence pointing to Russian culpability.

Kyiv secured more Western military support. News website Axios 15 March reported that Israel approved export of its drone jamming system to Ukraine; Poland and Slovakia 16, 17 March respectively became first NATO countries to pledge fighter jets; European Union 20 March approved €2bn plan to boost ammunition deliveries; Japan’s PM Kishida 21 March visited Kyiv and pledged $30mn in non-lethal military aid. 18 Leopard 2 tanks 29 March arrived in Ukraine from Germany.

Independent commission found evidence of war crimes. UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine 16 March presented evidence of Russian war crimes, and said that attacks on critical infrastructure and use of torture may amount to crimes against humanity; it documented two incidents by Ukrainian army that qualify as war crimes. International Criminal Court 17 March issued arrest warrant for Russian President Putin for “unlawful deportation” of children from occupied territories in Ukraine to Russia (see Russia).

Zelenskyy ordered priests and monks to clear pilgrimage site. Authorities 10 March ordered monks and priests of Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate to vacate Kyiv Cave Monastery by end of March, citing church’s ties to Moscow.

One year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, signs of new Russian offensive in embattled east began to emerge, Biden visited Kyiv, and Zelenskyy called on Western states to send fighter jets.

Stepped-up Russian activity along front line signalled new offensive. 24 Feb marked one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, amid indications of new Russian offensive to fully occupy eastern Donbas region, including increased Russian activity along front line, arrival of electronic warfare equipment, more reconnaissance activities and spike in losses of Russian soldiers. There were no major breakthroughs, however. In Donetsk region, Russian forces attempted to capture Vuhledar hilltop mining town, control of which would give them strategic advantage for operations to occupy remainder of Donetsk, but reportedly suffered major losses of troops and equipment in assault. Their troops made more progress around Bakhmut town, but suffered unsustainably high rate of attrition, while Ukrainian units retained control of main road out of town. With Russia’s land force so far unable to punch through Ukrainian defence lines, Western partners 14 Feb warned Russia could intensify airstrikes, making efforts to bolster Ukraine’s air defences a priority. Strikes on critical infrastructure continued, albeit at lower frequency.

Zelenskyy appealed for fighter jets, U.S. President Biden visited Kyiv. During 8 Feb visit to UK, President Zelenskyy urged British lawmakers to send fighter jets; UK PM Rishi Sunak responded that “nothing is off the table”. Zelenskyy’s plea came hours after UK announced it would train Ukrainian pilots to fly NATO-standard fighter jets, suggesting Western countries may be working on plan to send military aircraft. Zelenskyy 8-9 Feb also visited Paris and Brussels. Israeli FM Eli Cohen 16 Feb visited Ukraine, promising more support but refusing to condemn Russia. In strong show of support ahead of anniversary, President Biden 20 Feb made unannounced visit to Kyiv, promising more military aid and tighter sanctions on Russia before heading to Poland.

Defence minister announced new deputies. Following Jan corruption scandal that rattled defence ministry, Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov 14 Feb announced three new deputies as part of anti-graft efforts.

Heavy fighting persisted in Donetsk as Russian forces captured Soledar, Western allies ramped up military support, and Zelenskyy dismissed senior officials in anti-corruption sweep. 

Fighting continued in eastern Donetsk region as Ukraine withdrew from Soledar. Ukrainian artillery 1 Jan attacked Russian military base in occupied Makiyivka city. Russian defence ministry 4 Jan admitted that 89 soldiers had been killed, highest number of deaths it has acknowledged since full-scale invasion; Russian military bloggers criticised Russian planning and logistics. Russian paramilitary Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin 11 Jan claimed his troops had fully captured Soledar town just north of embattled Bakhmut town. Claim appeared premature and fighting continued, but Kyiv 25 Jan admitted its troops had pulled out, marking Russia’s first major battlefield advance since July 2022; loss of Soledar further complicates Ukraine’s defence of Bakhmut. Heavy fighting continued elsewhere in Donetsk, with British intelligence 31 Jan warning of “concerted” Russian assault on Vuhledar coal-mining town. Meanwhile, Russia continued targeting critical infrastructure, notably killing 11 people on 26 Jan.

Ukraine secured major breakthroughs in Western military support. France 4 Jan announced plans to equip Ukraine with armoured AMX-10 RC combat vehicles. Germany next day said it would provide around 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles while U.S. said it would deliver 50 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. UK became first western nation to pledge supply of main battle tanks, 19 Jan announcing “Tallinn Pledge”, military aid package coordinated with Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Czech Republic. Germany 25 Jan announced it would send Leopard 2 tanks amid mounting international pressure; hours later, U.S. declared it would send 31 M1 Abrams tanks. Russia same day said decision takes conflict “to a new level of confrontation”.

Zelenskyy cracked down on corruption. President Zelenskyy 22 Jan dismissed senior official Vasyl Lozynskiy following his arrest on embezzlement charges. Days later, Zelenskyy 24 Jan dismissed over a dozen senior officials, saying state “will be cleaned up”. Meanwhile, presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych 17 Jan resigned after wrongly claiming Ukrainian air defence had shot down Russian missile that killed 45 civilians in Dnipro city on 14 Jan.

Fighting raged in east as parts of front line descended into trench warfare, Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure continued, and authorities investigated role of Russian-affiliated churches.

Hostilities intensified in east as Bakhmut became war’s new epicentre. Following Ukraine’s liberation of southern Kherson city in Nov, Russian troops redeployed further east where fierce fighting continued throughout month. Notably, clashes around Bakhmut town in Donetsk region descended into trench warfare, with hundreds of dead and injured reported daily. Kremlin-linked private military company Wagner Group assumed high-profile role in attempted conquest of city, which President Zelenskyy 20 Dec visited. Meanwhile, senior officials gave media interviews throughout Dec, warning of new Russian offensive in early 2023 with stepped-up support from Belarus.

Russian attacks on energy infrastructure persisted, Ukraine hit Russian airbases. Russia launched strikes on critical infrastructure throughout month, often using Iranian loitering munition, severely hindering energy supplies throughout Ukraine; power outages can now last over one day, leaving homes cold and water supplies compromised. Russian authorities 5 Dec also accused Ukraine of attacking air bases in Russia’s Saratov and Ryazan regions hundreds of miles from border (see Russia); Kyiv acknowledged attacks but did not publicly claim responsibility. Strikes reveal Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, which Russia’s air defence appeared unprepared for. Media outlet The Times 9 Dec reported that U.S. has tacitly endorsed Ukrainian air strikes not only in occupied Ukrainian territory but inside Russia as well, representing major shift in its risk assessment.

Authorities searched churches affiliated with Moscow Patriarchate. Ukrainian Secret Service (SBU) during month conducted searches at over a dozen churches and monasteries aligned with Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate across country; SBU says measures seek to prevent church from being used to extend Russian influence inside Ukraine. Zelenskyy 2 Dec signed decree giving govt two months to present parliament with draft law restricting activities of religious groups with links to Russia. Meanwhile, parliament 13 Dec approved law granting state authority to shut down media outlets without court hearing; law drew criticism from activists, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and journalists.

Ukrainian forces sustained counteroffensive in east and south, recapturing Kherson city; Russian airstrikes on energy infrastructure left millions without electricity.

Russian forces retreated from Kherson city amid Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces’ counteroffensive advanced further in southern Kherson region as they closed in on Kherson city and surrounding area on right bank of Dnipro River. Russian authorities 9 Nov announced retreat from Kherson city to more defensible positions along river’s left bank; Ukrainian troops 11 Nov took back control, marking strategic and symbolic victory as Kherson constituted only regional capital Russian troops occupied since Feb invasion. In east, Ukraine’s counteroffensive ground on slowly amid reports of heavy losses on both sides; fierce fighting notably reported around Kreminna and Rubizhne cities in Luhansk region, and around Bakhmut city in Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy 20 Nov accused Russian forces of launching “almost 400 artillery strikes in the east” in one day. In Zaporizhzhia region, Moscow and Kyiv 21 Nov traded blame for shelling at nuclear power plant.

Russian strikes on energy infrastructure aggravated humanitarian crisis. Zelenskyy 1 Nov announce that Russian air strikes had damaged around 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, as strikes on energy systems continued unabated throughout month. Notably, Russia 15 Nov fired over 90 missiles and drones into country; during raid, missile struck village in NATO member Poland, killing two and fuelling fears of escalation; however, Polish officials and NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg next day said Ukrainian missile had likely fallen in Poland accidentally while intercepting Russian missiles. Attacks during month left millions without electricity, water or heating as temperatures fell below zero, bringing country to brink of winter crisis and prompting Kyiv 21 Nov to advise civilians from Kherson and Mykolaiv regions to evacuate.

In other important developments. Following Russia’s withdrawal late Oct from UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Deal, Russia and Ukraine 17 Nov agreed to extend deal for 120 days. UN General Assembly 14 Nov adopted resolution calling for Russian war reparations to Ukraine; 94 countries voted for resolution, 14 voted against and 73 abstained.

Russia stepped up offensive by launching series of strikes on cities, including capital Kyiv, and civilian infrastructure, likely aimed at worsening living conditions as winter approaches.

Wave of Russian strikes targeted cities and civilian infrastructure. Russia throughout Oct launched strikes on Kyiv and other cities, often using Shahed-136 drones supplied by Iran, in move likely aimed at worsening living conditions across country as winter nears. Most notably, Russian forces 10 Oct launched around 80 missiles across country, about half of which were intercepted, killing 23 civilians and targeting power stations, electricity grid and symbolic targets in Kyiv such as pedestrian bridge. Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Rafael Mariano Grossi 12 Oct said shelling at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia power plant in Enerhodar city had caused plant to lose connection to grid several times and called for security protection zone. Both sides have traded blame for shelling.

Ukrainian counteroffensives in north east and south continued. In north east, Ukraine’s forces 1 Oct entered strategically important Lyman city in Donetsk region day after Moscow proclaimed annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. In south, as Ukrainian forces advanced along Dnipro river toward Kherson city in bid to close in on occupied city, Russian-installed head of Kherson region 19 Oct said Russian military would evacuate up to 60,000 civilians; forcibly deporting civilians from occupied territories into occupiers’ territory can constitute war crime under Geneva Convention. Meanwhile, Russia reportedly began sending reinforcements to defend Kherson city, 24 Oct accused Ukraine of plans to use “dirty bomb”. In Russian-annexed Crimea, explosion 8 Oct at symbolical Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea destroyed parts of road and railway tracks; Russia 8 Oct blamed Kyiv who neither confirmed nor denied involvement. Russia 29 Oct accused Ukraine of “massive” drone attack on port city of Sevastopol, same day announced exit from UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Deal.

In other important developments. At UN General Assembly, 143 countries 12 Oct voted to condemn Russia’s proclaimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions, five members voted against and 35 abstained. FM Dmytro Kuleba 3 Oct embarked on tour of Africa to advocate for Ukrainian perspective in conflict but returned to Ukraine after missile strikes 10 Oct.

Russian President Putin pledged to annex four partly occupied territories and ordered partial military mobilisation after successful Ukrainian counteroffensive; fighting likely to intensify in coming weeks.

Ukrainian forces made significant battlefield gains in south and north east. Ukrainian forces conducted two parallel counteroffensives against Russian forces. First counteroffensive, announced late Aug, moved slowly through Kherson region (south); second counteroffensive, aided by increased intelligence-sharing with U.S., began 6 Sept and moved quickly through Kharkiv region (north east), taking Russian forces by surprise. Kherson offensive reportedly aimed to divert Russian forces south, weakening defensive lines in north east and enabling Ukrainian army to strike forcefully. Ukrainian forces 6-14 Sept regained 8,500 sq km of Kharkiv, including strategically important Kupiansk and Izium cities. Elsewhere in east, Russian-backed authorities 30 Sept said Ukrainian forces had “partially surrounded” Russian troops in Lyman city, Donetsk region. Kherson offensive in south stalled, although Ukrainian forces 16 Sept partly destroyed administrative building in Kherson city with western-delivered HIMARS rocket.

Moscow launched retaliatory strikes, announced partial mobilisation and proclaimed annexation of new territory. Responding to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russian missiles 11 Sept struck Kharkiv city, interrupting electricity and water supply; 14 Sept struck hydroelectric dam in Dnipropetrovsk region’s Kriviy Rih city; 30 Sept struck humanitarian convoy in Zaporizhzhia city (south east), killing at least 30. In further escalation, Putin 21 Sept announced partial military mobilisation and brandished nuclear threats (see Russia), while de facto proxy officials in four partly occupied territories – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – 20 Sept announced referenda to join Russia would be held 23-27 Sept; authorities 27 Sept declared victories in polls. In ceremony held at Kremlin, Putin 30 Sept proclaimed annexation of all four territories, biggest annexation in Europe since World War II, saying “we will defend our land with all our strength and all our means”. President Zelenskyy same day said Ukraine had formally requested “accelerated accession” to join NATO.

In other important developments. Following discovery of mass grave near recently liberated Izium, authorities 23 Sept said that of 436 bodies discovered, 30 bore traces of torture. U.S. 8, 15 Sept announced military aid packages worth $675mn and $600mn respectively.

Russian campaign in Donbas remained largely static, Ukrainian army announced counteroffensive in south as it stepped up attacks in Russian-occupied areas, and fears mounted over shelling at Zaporizhzhia power plant. Russian forces made few advances in Donbas region during month. In Dnipropetrovsk region (east), Russian forces 24 Aug struck train station in Chaplyne town, killing 25; in Kharkiv city (east), Russian shelling 17, 18 Aug left 17 dead. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces 29 Aug announced offensive around southern city of Kherson. In weeks prior, strikes in Russian-occupied areas increased as Ukrainian forces attempted to weaken Russian rear. In Russian-annexed Crimea, explosions 9 Aug rocked Saki airbase near Novofedorivka village over 200km from nearest Ukrainian positions. U.S. media outlet The New York Times 11 Aug quoted senior Ukrainian official hinting attack had been executed with help of partisans. Second explosions 16 Aug occurred, notably at railway hub in Dzhankoi town and Hvardeiskoe airbase near regional capital Simferopol. In Kherson region, several assassinations of Russian-appointed officials occurred during month; unidentified assailants 6 Aug shot dead deputy head of administration in Nova Kakhovka city; 28 Aug killed deputy head of regional administration. Ukrainian forces repeatedly struck remaining bridges across Dnipro river near Kherson city and Nova Kakhovka city. In south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region, repeated shelling occurred throughout month at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar city following reports that Russian troops were using plant as military base; Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for attacks. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 6, 19 Aug expressed concern for safety of workers and facility, requested inspection on which IAEA team embarked 29 Aug. President Zelenskyy 26 Aug said Russian shelling day before temporarily cut power plant’s electricity supply, raising fears of nuclear disaster; Russian official 26 Aug blamed Ukrainian forces. In Luhansk region, Ukrainian forces 14 Aug reportedly destroyed headquarters of Kremlin-linked private military company Wagner Group in Popasna city. In Donetsk city, Russian-backed authorities 23 Aug said shelling struck apartment building, killing three. UN Humanitarian Agency 8 Aug said at least 17.7mn people in need of assistance since February. 27 ships carrying 670,000 tonnes of agricultural products left ports 1-20 Aug.