President Kagame failed to attend regional peace summit on eastern DR Congo crisis; despite heightened bilateral tensions, Kigali and Kinshasa revived agreement on refugee repatriation.

Regional peace summit proceeded without Kagame. President Kagame 6 May failed to attend 11th summit of Regional Oversight Mechanism of Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for DR Congo and Great Lakes region, with PM Edouard Ngirente representing Rwanda. Participants called for “restraint, de-escalation … and pursuit of dialogue” between Kigali and Kinshasa amid heightened bilateral tensions since resurgence in March 2022 of M23 movement in eastern DR Congo (see Burundi).

Kigali and Kinshasa made headway on voluntary repatriation of refugees. During meeting in Switzerland, Rwanda, DR Congo and UN Refugee Agency 15 May signed joint statement committing to resuming facilitation of sustainable return and reintegration pathways for Congolese refugees in Rwanda and Rwandan refugees in DR Congo, in line with 2010 Tripartite Agreement on voluntary repatriation. Parties to hold follow-up technical meeting in Kenya in June to define practicalities. 

Tensions with DR Congo continued to run high, while Kigali offered military support to help Benin counter jihadist threat.

Kigali and Kinshasa continued to trade blame for conflict in eastern DR Congo. President Kagame 15 April blamed M23 crisis on colonial era border delineation, stating that “a big part of Rwanda was left outside in eastern Congo and southwestern Uganda”; also defended M23 rebels stating “these people continue to be denied their rights in Congo” and “the Congo problem, the regional problem, or the Rwanda problem is not M23”. In response, Kinshasa denounced “new provocation”, saying Kagame was responsible for “all the problems” in the east over last 20 years and “must never forget that [DR Congo] will defend every inch of territory”. Earlier in month, Kagame and Kenyan President Ruto 4 April pledged “to find a lasting solution to the conflict” in eastern DR Congo during Ruto’s visit to Rwanda (see DR Congo).

In other important developments. Kagame re-elected 2 April as chairman of ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). Burundi’s ruling party delegation same day attended RPF’s 35th anniversary ceremony in capital Kigali, confirming improved relations between neighbours (see Burundi). During visit to Benin, Kagame 15 April met with Beninese President Talon; two leaders signed agreement for Rwandan military help in securing Benin’s borders (see Benin).

Govt forces killed Congolese soldier along shared border; Kinshasa urged Paris to pursue sanctions against Rwanda in pursuit of durable M23 ceasefire in eastern DR Congo.

Rwandan and Congolese troops exchanged fire along shared border. Kigali 3 March said military killed Congolese soldier after he allegedly crossed border into Rwanda’s Rubavu district and shot at Rwandan soldiers; also said several other Congolese soldiers fired at Rwandan army position.

Congolese president discussed sanctions on Rwanda with French counterpart. Congolese President Tshisekedi 4 March pressured visiting French President Macron to pursue sanctions against Rwanda for its military support to M23 rebels; Macron said “there may be sanctions” following ongoing peace negotiation efforts if Rwanda and other actors “do not respect their commitments”. France’s UN Ambassador Nicolas de Rivière 7 March also said “incursions by the regular Rwandan army in North Kivu” are “clearly established” and “unacceptable”.

Diplomatic tensions between Burundi and Rwanda continued to ease. High-level Burundian delegation 5 March met with President Kagame in capital Kigali; officials reportedly discussed situation in eastern DR Congo and extradition from Rwanda of several individuals suspected of involvement in 2015 coup attempt against then-Burundian President Nkurunziza. Governors of Rwanda’s Western and Southern provinces 17 March met with governor of Burundi’s Citiboke province in Rwanda’s Kamembe town to discuss reopening of Ruhwa and Bweyeye border crossings (see Burundi).

Kigali and Kinshasa continued to trade blame for eastern DR Congo violence amid alleged border post clash and deployment of hundreds of troops by Rwanda.

Tensions continued to run high between Kigali and Kinshasa. Rwandan military 15 Feb said its troops briefly exchanged fire with a dozen Congolese soldiers who entered neutral zone in western district of Rusizi and opened fire at Rwandan border post, condemned “act of provocation”. Congolese authorities immediately denied entering neutral zone, said clashes took place between its military and “bandits” near border with Rwanda in Bukavu city, South Kivu province. Congolese army 16 Feb accused Rwandan army of deploying 350 troops to North Kivu to reinforce M23 positions on “western axis”. President Kagame continued to deny Rwanda’s support for M23, and 22 Feb argued that Kinshasa had “crossed the red line” by collaborating with Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) militia. Kigali 27 Feb announced reinforcing security along border with DR Congo (DRC), claiming that Kinshasa is “bellicose” and is massing military hardware and foreign mercenaries along Rwandan border.

Regional and international efforts to resolve crisis continued. Kagame and Congolese President Tshisekedi 4 Feb met in Burundi for East African Community Summit, held first bilateral meeting since UN General Assembly in Sept 2022, but failed to break new ground on M23 issue. European Union 14 Feb blamed Rwanda and DR Congo for ignoring regional peace initiatives, urging “Rwanda to cease its support to the M23” and “DRC to cease all cooperation” with armed groups, “in particular the FDLR”.

Tensions with DR Congo (DRC) ratcheted up as Rwandan military shot at Congolese fighter jet.

U.S. 4 Jan urged “Rwanda to cease all support to M23 and withdraw its troops from eastern DRC”. In apparent response, President Kagame 9 Jan told senators country would no longer accept refugees from DRC, claiming Rwanda had been “insulted and abused” despite hosting Congolese refugees for 20 years; govt next day however backtracked on position, saying “Rwanda has no intention to expel or ban refugees”. Kigali and Kinshasa throughout month accused other side of breaking ceasefire agreement in eastern DRC. Speaking at World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Congolese President Tshisekedi 17 Jan said “problem of insecurity in the Great Lakes region is called Rwanda”. President Kagame 27 Jan denied Rwandan support for M23, but claimed Rwanda had legitimate right to intervene in DR Congo to fight rebel group Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda. Congolese army next day again accused Rwanda of invading DRC and also of planning massacres of Congolese Tutsis in order to justify incursions. Qatar-mediated talks between Kagame and Tshisekedi to follow up on 2022 Luanda agreement postponed 23 Jan after Tshisekedi reportedly pulled out. Meanwhile, Rwandan defence forces 24 Jan fired missile at Congolese fighter jet for allegedly violating Rwandan airspace, urging Kinshasa to “stop this aggression”. Congolese govt same day denied jet violated Rwandan airspace and called incident “act of war”. Rwandan troops 28 Jan reportedly clashed with DRC police on Ibindja Island of Lake Kivu (South Kivu province), with one Congolese policeman injured.

Kigali remained under international pressure to stop supporting M23 advances in eastern DR Congo.

Kigali and Kinshasa continued to trade accusations over eastern DR Congo crisis. During state of nation address, DR Congo (DRC) President Tshisekedi 10 Dec said country was victim of “unequivocal aggression by Rwanda”, denounced neighbouring country’s “expansionist tendencies”. In response, President Kagame 14 Dec said he “cannot be responsible for... Congolese of Rwandan descent in Congo who are being denied their rights as citizens”. After UN mission in DRC 7 Dec said M23 rebels late Nov allegedly killed 131 civilians in North Kivu province (see DR Congo), Rwandan govt 21 Dec accused Kinshasa of “fabricating” massacre. Kigali 28 Dec said Kinshasa violated its airspace by flying fighter jet over its territory.

International concerns over Rwandan support for M23 rose further. In call with Kagame, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 4 Dec reportedly said “Rwanda’s support for M23” must stop. In response, Rwanda’s FM Vincent Biruta next day accused U.S. of “exacerbating” crisis in eastern DRC. Blinken mid-Dec again called on Rwanda to “use its influence” on M23 rebels to de-escalate crisis. UN experts’ report dated 16 Dec found “substantial evidence” of Rwandan forces crossing into eastern Congo since Jan 2022, either to reinforce M23 rebels or to conduct military operations. Kigali denied accusations. French embassy in Kinshasa 19 Dec condemned Rwanda’s support for M23, while European Union 31 Dec called on Rwanda to stop supporting insurgents.

Authorities joined call for M23 rebels to halt fighting in eastern DR Congo (DRC) as regional efforts intensified to de-escalate tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa.

Regional leaders called for immediate ceasefire in eastern DRC. Congolese President Tshisekedi 3 Nov again denounced Kigali’s “expansionist impulses” in supporting M23 rebels. East African Community (EAC) 18 Nov said EAC peace process facilitator for DRC, former Kenyan President Kenyatta, and President Kagame had agreed on need for M23 to cease fire and withdraw from captured territories in DRC’s North Kivu province. During mini-summit on peace and security in eastern DRC held in Angola's capital Luanda, regional leaders including Congolese President Tshisekedi and Rwandan FM Vincent Biruta 23 Nov called for cessation of hostilities in eastern DRC starting 25 Nov; M23 in following days rejected call (see DR Congo).

Border incidents highlighted heightened tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa. As DRC forces continued to combat M23 rebels in eastern provinces, Congolese SU-25 fighter jet 7 Nov entered Rwandan airspace, landing briefly at Rubavu airport, Western province; Rwanda took no military action but accused Kinshasa of “provocation”. Rwandan troops 19 Nov killed Congolese soldier who had crossed border into Rwanda’s Rubavu district.

UN experts found “solid evidence” of Rwandan military intervention in DR Congo. In confidential report leaked to the media on 4 Aug, UN experts said there was “solid evidence” that Rwandan troops have conducted military operations in eastern DR Congo in support of M23 rebels since Nov 2021. Kigali immediately denied accusations, while Kinshasa 5 Aug demanded Kigali take “responsibility for the instability” in eastern DR Congo. During visit to region, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 11 Aug met with President Kagame in capital Kigali and discussed “credible reports” indicating that Rwanda continues to support M23 rebels; Blinken same day said Kagame and Congolese President Tshisekedi had agreed to hold direct talks over fighting in eastern DR Congo.

Govt signed de-escalation agreement with DR Congo after two countries traded accusations of supporting rebels in Great Lakes region. President Kagame 6 July met with Congolese counterpart, President Tshisekedi, in Angola’s capital Luanda to discuss tensions amid M23 rebels’ offensive in DR Congo’s North Kivu province; both leaders agreed on de-escalation process, including “immediate cessation of hostilities” and “immediate and unconditional withdrawal” of M23 rebels from eastern DRC. Rebels next day rejected move, claiming that only they can sign ceasefire agreement, and clashed with Congolese military in North Kivu’s Rutshuru territory. Congolese and Rwandan officials 20-22 July met again in Angola, called for quick deployment of East African Community regional force (agreed upon in June) in eastern DRC to combat M23 rebels; Kigali agreed to be excluded from regional force at Kinshasa’s request. Renewed clashes late July broke out between M23 and Congolese forces in Rutshuru (see Democratic Republic of Congo).

Kigali and Kinshasa continued to trade accusations of supporting rebels in Great Lakes region amid M23 armed group offensive in eastern DR Congo. Congolese President Tshisekedi 5 June said there was “no doubt” that Rwanda supported M23 rebellion active in eastern DR Congo, insisted he was still seeking peaceful relations with neighbour. Rwandan and Congolese govts 10 June accused each other of firing rockets across shared border; no casualty reported on Rwandan side. Kigali next day said Kinshasa had released and handed over two Rwandan soldiers captured in May. Rwandan forces 17 June killed one Congolese soldier who had crossed border and allegedly fired at Rwandan security forces. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 1 June called for diplomatic solution to rising Rwanda-DRC tensions (see DR Congo).