CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Iran

Conservatives won clear parliamentary majority in 20 February elections, boycotted by reformers after hardline Guardian Council barred more than 2,500 candidates from running. Turnout was reported at 50% country-wide – down from 67% in 2000 – and 33% in Tehran. Statements from EU and U.S. expressed disappointment at flawed democratic process. Two major reformist newspapers shut by conservatives day before vote. IAEA released report detailing secret Iranian purchases of nuclear equipment from international suppliers linked to Pakistan’s Abdul Qadeer Khan, indicating Iran only partially disclosed nuclear activities in autumn 2003 report to IAEA. Western officials say Tehran still hiding full extent of program.

Middle East & North Africa

Iran

Guardian Council, supervisory body composed of hardline judges and clerics, vetoed candidacies of close to half those intending to run in February general election, including 80 current MPs. Disqualifications caused storm of protest and sit-in by MPs. Guardian Council later reinstated 1,160 of over 3,000 vetoed candidates, but reformists, led by President Khatami, said move insufficient. Crisis deepened following threat by reformists to boycott election if disqualifications upheld. Meanwhile, U.S. and European diplomats unhappy with Iranian progress in suspending enrichment of uranium – Iran reportedly still acquiring enrichment-related equipment. IAEA negotiating with Iran to ban such activities.

Middle East & North Africa

Iran

Earthquake devastated ancient city of Bam, killing at least 28,000 and perhaps many more. Early international response included U.S. government planes landing in Iran for first time in over 2 decades, carry relief. Tehran signed additional protocol of Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty allowing IAEA to conduct more intrusive inspections of nuclear sites. Evidence discovered in investigation of nuclear program points to Pakistan as source of advanced technology. Negotiations reportedly ongoing with U.S. over handover – or return to home countries – of detained al Qaeda suspects. U.S. meanwhile deciding whether to expel anti- Iranian Mujahideen-e Khalq Organization (MKO) from Iraq; Iraqi Governing Council decreed MKO must leave by end of December, though to where unclear. Controversial registration of candidates for February parliamentary elections ongoing; candidates must be vetted by conservative Guardians Council.

Middle East & North Africa

Iran

Revealed it had been carrying out secret nuclear research for 18 years, including production of low-enriched uranium and separation of plutonium, but claimed for civilian purposes. IAEA, which reviewed Tehran’s disclosures, said no evidence intention was to build bomb. U.S. unhappy with this but backed off on demand that Iran’s violations of Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) be referred to Security Council; instead, reached agreement with Britain, France, and Germany that future breaches be referred. IAEA resolution 26 November reflected compromise. Iran agreed to abide by NPT and Additional Protocol allowing snap inspections, and said had suspended enrichment. Nobel Prize winner Shirin Ebadi took up case of slain Canadian journalist Zahra Kazemi.

Middle East & North Africa

Iran

After negotiations with foreign ministers of UK, France, and Germany, Iran agreed 21 October to all major IAEA demands regarding nuclear program, including temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, meaning issue now unlikely to be referred to Security Council on passing of 31 October IAEA deadline. But no word on how long suspension of enrichment activities will last. U.S. cautioned that Iran’s actions must match words, and that it must sign Additional Protocol of Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty (NPT). Iranian human rights activist Shirin Ebadi won Nobel Peace Prize

Middle East & North Africa

Iran

Tension increasing over issue of Iranian nuclear program. IAEA set 31 October deadline for Tehran to enable UN to verify it is not building nuclear weapons. Matter may be referred to Security Council if Iran deemed non-compliant. Concern that standoff playing into hands of Iranian hardliners and could escalate, with risk of Iran pulling out of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Elsewhere, Iran-UK relations on rocks after several shooting incidents outside British embassy in Tehran and last month’s arrest by UK of former Iranian ambassador to Argentina.

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