CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

In surprise move President Mubarak initiated constitutional change to allow for multi-candidate presidential elections. Activist Kifaya (“Enough”) group continued rare protests throughout month against possible Mubarak 5th term, calling for release of Ayman Nour, leader of Ghad (“Tomorrow”) party detained on charge of falsifying documents; detention criticised by U.S. Following Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire agreement, Egypt reopened official diplomatic relations with Israel after 4-year break. IAEA report said Egyptian nuclear reporting failures were “matter of concern”, but did not suggest weapons link.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Three dissidents announced plans to run against President Mubarak in October 2005 presidential referendum and launch public petition for constitutional change; Mubarak invited “100 rivals”. While activist Kifaya (“Enough”) group protested Mubarak’s renomination by ruling NDP, parliamentary opposition groups presented rival constitutional reform options. Ayman Nour, leader of recently legalised Ghad (“Tomorrow”) Party, stripped of parliamentary immunity and arrested 29 January on charges of forging party documents used in application for legal status. Egypt’s PM, Ahmed Nazif, said family would be “obstacle”, but not insuperable, to future candidacy of Gamal Mubarak. Foreign Minister Gheit said Egypt 100% within IAEA rules following inspection late December 2004; officials later admitted “errors” in reporting.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Relations with Israel continued to improve with possible restoration of full diplomatic ties. Egypt, Israel and U.S. signed trade pact 14 December sparking riots in Cairo. Israel released 170 Palestinian prisoners 19 December in goodwill gesture; this followed exchange of alleged Israeli spy for 6 Egyptians held in Israel. In rare defiance of ban, 500 protested against possible fifth 6-year term for President Mubarak after October 2005 presidential referendum. Man killed in Christian-Muslim clashes in southern Egypt.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Death of (Egyptian-born) Yasser Arafat brought full military funeral Cairo 12 November before transfer of body to Ramallah (see Israel/Occupied Territories). Three Egyptian policemen killed by Israeli forces in Rafah region along Gaza border 18 November; PM Sharon apologised for incident.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Bombing of Taba Hilton and tourist camps at Ras Shaitan on Sinai peninsula killed at least 34 people 7 October, including 12 Israelis. Israel suggested international terrorists to blame, with possible al-Qaeda link. Egyptian authorities suggested Palestinian and Egyptian terrorists carried out attacks to protest Israeli-Palestinian conflict; 5 suspects arrested 25 October. Egypt offered 750 elite border troops to guard Gaza Strip border with Israel following any Israeli withdrawal; accepted by Israel outside Israel-Egypt peace treaty framework. Egypt said Palestinian groups in Gaza would agree to 1-year ceasefire with Israel.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Annual congress of ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) saw continued rise of President Mubarak’s son, Gamal. Convention focused on economic reform, drawing opposition criticism for not prioritising constitutional reform and abrogation of “emergency laws” in place since 1981. NDP prepared to nominate 76 year-old President Mubarak for further six-year term beginning 2005.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Israel reopened Rafah border-crossing between Gaza and Egypt 6 August, easing relations. Cairo continued talks with Palestinian groups on Gaza strip security after potential Israeli withdrawal, claiming agreement on deal with Hamas and Islamic Jihad; also destroyed 2 tunnels allegedly used to smuggle weapons from Egypt to Gaza. Ruling NDP party-inspired bill to ease restrictions on political party registration to be debated at second annual NDP conference September; viewed as insufficient by opposition.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Atef Ebeid, PM since 1999, replaced 9 July by younger Ahmed Nazif - commentators said limited scope for reform, although new cabinet includes technocratic modernisers close to President Mubarak’s son, Gamal. Egypt extended possible offer of security training to Iraqi forces, leading to kidnapping of Egyptian diplomat Mamdouh Helmi Qutb in Baghdad 23 July; released 3 days later.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

Quartet representatives meeting Taba 24 June welcomed Egyptian pressure for Palestinian security reform in return for security role in Gaza. Health fears for President Mubarak, 76, as underwent back surgery in Germany.

Middle East & North Africa

Egypt

President Mubarak held talks with Palestinian PM on proposed Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, strongly criticising recent Israeli army incursions into Rafah near Egyptian border. Egyptian security chief suggested Egypt could play security role in evacuated Gaza. Domestically, 54 members of Muslim Brotherhood arrested 18 May on treason charges. Chances of early repeal of Egypt’s 1981 Emergency Law faded after state- backed National Council for Human Rights failed to give support.

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