What Next For Al-Shabaab?
What Next For Al-Shabaab?
Getting Climate Security in Africa on the Agenda for COP27
Getting Climate Security in Africa on the Agenda for COP27
Op-Ed / Africa

What Next For Al-Shabaab?

Do the two U.S. raids in Africa this month signal a shift from drone attacks?

It’s not possible to tell at this point. The two raids underscore one limitation of drones: they cannot be used in urban settings where the possibility of killing civilians is very high. This would not only violate international humanitarian law, but would be counter-productive, since it would turn the population against the United States and its allies and possibly radicalize others into joining jihadi groups like Al-Shabaab.

The raids also suggest that the U.S. government recognizes that capturing a jihadi leader is much more valuable than killing one, even if there are risks to U.S. servicemen. The intelligence that can be gleaned from these men not only allows governments to learn about impending attacks, but also about their organization, financing and networks. Even if a captured militant does not divulge any information, the possibility that he might forces groups to alter plans and change communication protocols and locations. It also sows suspicion and discord that will hamper operations and could reveal the location of other commanders. This disruption is more significant than the elimination of one, or even a small group, of leaders, who can often be quickly replaced.

Raids and drone strikes, however, can only achieve limited tactical aims. As we have hopefully learned in Afghanistan and elsewhere, it’s much more useful to support the development of effective and inclusive governments that are better able to combat jihadi groups and address the grievances that drive young men, and some women, to join them.

Read the full Q&A on CNN.
 

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.