What Next For Al-Shabaab?
What Next For Al-Shabaab?
How can Climate Risk Management be Strengthened in Conflict Zones? (Online event, 20 October 2022)
How can Climate Risk Management be Strengthened in Conflict Zones? (Online event, 20 October 2022)
Op-Ed / Africa

What Next For Al-Shabaab?

Do the two U.S. raids in Africa this month signal a shift from drone attacks?

It’s not possible to tell at this point. The two raids underscore one limitation of drones: they cannot be used in urban settings where the possibility of killing civilians is very high. This would not only violate international humanitarian law, but would be counter-productive, since it would turn the population against the United States and its allies and possibly radicalize others into joining jihadi groups like Al-Shabaab.

The raids also suggest that the U.S. government recognizes that capturing a jihadi leader is much more valuable than killing one, even if there are risks to U.S. servicemen. The intelligence that can be gleaned from these men not only allows governments to learn about impending attacks, but also about their organization, financing and networks. Even if a captured militant does not divulge any information, the possibility that he might forces groups to alter plans and change communication protocols and locations. It also sows suspicion and discord that will hamper operations and could reveal the location of other commanders. This disruption is more significant than the elimination of one, or even a small group, of leaders, who can often be quickly replaced.

Raids and drone strikes, however, can only achieve limited tactical aims. As we have hopefully learned in Afghanistan and elsewhere, it’s much more useful to support the development of effective and inclusive governments that are better able to combat jihadi groups and address the grievances that drive young men, and some women, to join them.

Read the full Q&A on CNN.
 

How can Climate Risk Management be Strengthened in Conflict Zones? (Online event, 20 October 2022)

Climate change's destabilising impact is increasingly visible across the globe, with more frequent and severe weather events and temperature extremes contributing to insecurity and conflict. While climate change's relationship with conflict is complex, areas experiencing instability, poor governance, and poverty tend to be more vulnerable to both climate change and deadly violence; half of the most climate fragile countries also experience conflict. In order to effectively address this volatile mix, climate policy and financing must take account of conflict dynamics. This panel investigates how to do so in terms of both climate change's relationship to conflict and the challenges that climate insecurity poses to humanitarian relief.

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