Indian authorities speak confidently of a new era in the region of Jammu and Kashmir, for decades a hotbed of separatism, insurgency and tensions with neighbouring Pakistan. But with New Delhi stalling on promised elections, local frustration continues to fuel unrest.
Uptick in militant attacks in Jammu region continued, and govt announced regional elections after ten-year gap.
Worsening security situation in Jammu continued to raise concern. Security forces continued to suffer losses in Jammu region, raising alarm with govt. Police 12 Aug arrested nine people for allegedly facilitating movement of militants infiltrating from Pakistan in upper reaches of Doda, Udhampur and Kathua districts, Jammu region; security forces 14 Aug killed one militant in Doda where one soldier also died. Militants 19 Aug also ambushed and killed police officer in higher reaches of Udhampur district. Recent surge in militancy prompted home ministry 3 Aug to announce deployment of two counter-insurgency battalion of Assam Rifles with soldiers stationed in upper reaches of Jammu region. Meanwhile, in Kashmir, militants 10 Aug killed two soldiers and injured two civilians in gun battle in Anantnag district; security forces 24 Aug killed militant during security operation in north Kashmir’s Baramulla district, and 28-29 Aug killed three militants in two different operations in north Kashmir’s Kupwara district.
Election Commission announced regional elections. Officials 16 Aug announced voting for Kashmir 90-member legislative assembly would start in Sept. Polls are expected to take place in three phases from 18 Sept to 1 Oct, with results to be announced on 4 Oct. Upcoming election will be region’s first in ten years, and also first polls to be held after Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) restructuring in 2019 as Union Territory. With expanded powers since July, Lieutenant Governor 16 Aug reshuffled nearly 200 middle and upper-rung officers in civil administration and police department; regional parties immediately criticised move, seen as “biased intent” to influence poll outcomes in favour of ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Former J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah 16 Aug asked election commission to view such transfer orders from “prism of free and fair polls”.
Militants in Indian-administered Kashmir have increased the targeted killing of Hindus, who are a small minority in the region, spreading panic among them. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Praveen Donthi draws upon interviews with residents to explore the implications of this violence.
Crisis Group’s Watch List identifies ten countries or regions at risk of deadly conflict or escalation thereof in 2022. In these places, early action, driven or supported by the EU and its member states, could enhance prospects for peace and stability.
As the decades-old conflict continues in Kashmir, with incidents occurring every week, dangerous tensions make future violence possible. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to push for India and Pakistan to rebuild mutual respect and peaceful relations by resuming formal bilateral ties and re-engaging with Kashmiri political leaders.
One year ago, India rescinded constitutional provisions giving special status to Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed territory also claimed by Pakistan. Kashmiri militancy is growing, often with Pakistani encouragement. Allies should urge New Delhi to relax its clampdown and Islamabad to stop backing jihadist proxies.
Reciprocal airstrikes by India and Pakistan have been accompanied by shelling, troop reinforcements and small arms fire. In this Q&A calling for restraint between the nuclear-armed neighbours, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller notes that the airspace violations alone were the worst for 50 years.
A 14 February suicide attack by Pakistan-based militants was their bloodiest strike in Indian-administered Kashmir in over three decades. In this Q&A, our Asia Program Director Laurel Miller warns that even a limited Indian retaliatory strike could spark a sharp escalation in conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Their recent dialogue process provides the best chance yet for bilateral peace and regional stability, but Pakistan and India must still overcome serious mistrust among hardliners in their security elites.
Even if India and Pakistan appear willing to allow more interaction across the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the parts of Kashmir they administer, any Kashmir-based dialogue will fail if they do not put its inhabitants first.
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