CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

Filters

Africa

Kenya

Strains within coalition govt continued to worsen. Early month crisis talks collapsed 4 Apr, with PM Odinga’s team accusing President Kibaki of unwillingness to engage on policy and concerns over marginalisation of PM’s ODM party. Kibaki late Apr installed ally VP Kalonzo Musyoka as chair of parliamentary business committee, prompting outcry from ODM and call for fresh elections; Kibaki accused ODM of “fomenting a coup”. Parliamentary speaker 28 Apr named himself interim chair to ease stand-off. 2 ministers of Kibaki’s PNU party resigned over month, citing lack of consultation over reforms. Domestic tensions rose over Lake Victoria’s disputed Migingo Islands though diplomatic relations with Kampala largely calm; protesters in Kibera in Nairobi uprooted railway line to Uganda 15 Apr; MPs called on govt to declare Uganda a “hostile state”. 29 villages in Karatina, Central Province, executed by members of outlawed Mungiki sect 20 Apr, in revenge for killing of 15 members by vigilante group. Sect leader Maina Njenga arrested for ordering executions 28 Apr.

Africa

Kenya

2 prominent activists documenting police violence, Oscar Kamau King’ara and Paul Oulu, murdered 5 March, sparking protests amid widespread accusations of police responsibility. Followed information-sharing meeting between the 2 men and UN rapporteur Philip Alston ahead of Alston’s 25 Feb report on police violence; 15 activists have since fled or in hiding. U.S. FBI offered to support investigation. Hundreds rallied in Nairobi demanding resignation of police commissioner: 1 killed, 3 police later arrested over death. Events added to mounting tensions in coalition govt over response to Alston report, risk of ICC trials for post-election violence suspects, PNU dominance in govt. ODM faction 3 March called on PM Odinga to renegotiate power-sharing accord. Kofi Annan arrived 11 March in effort to restart inter- party talks, 31 March at Kenya conference in Geneva stressed growing frustration at pace of reforms.

Africa

Kenya

Parliament 13 Feb rejected constitutional amendment to create tribunal on 2007 post-election violence as MPs object over risk of unfair trials. Delay rules out possibility of its creation by 1 March, date Waki Commission report stipulated for suspects to be referred to ICC. Lead objector MP Gitobu Imanyara accused govt of blackmailing MPs in effort to force bill’s passage. PM Odinga announced deadline extended by 2 months, but mediator Kofi Annan 24 Feb stressed preparedness to pass suspects to ICC if tribunal not created within “reasonable” timeframe. UN special rapporteur Philip Alston following 10-day investigation mission 25 Feb presented report to govt detailing systematic arbitrary killings by police since 2007 and calling for firing of police chief and attorney general; govt rejected findings.

Africa

Kenya

Fast passage of bill to create tribunal for 2007 electoral violence – hastily introduced to parliament 20 Jan to ensure passage by deadline established in Waki Commission report – blocked 30 Jan by MP Imanyara, formally on procedural grounds. Waki report states that names of suspected perpetrators of Dec 2007 violence to be passed to ICC if tribunal deadline missed; PM Odinga, seeking to defuse alarm, 1 Feb said deadline flexible, govt committed to implementation. Govt 9 Jan declared national emergency over continued food shortages, called for $406m donor aid; critics stress need for barriers against corruption.

Africa

Kenya

President Kibaki and PM Odinga 17 Dec agreed to establish tribunal for post-election violence, meeting Waki Commission on Post-Election Violence deadline. Tribunal to be in place by 1 March; will have special status outside Kenyan courts’ jurisdiction. Agreement also includes police reforms. Parliament 16 Dec passed constitutional review act disbanding Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) in line with Waki report, 17 Dec formed constitutional review committee. Kibaki signed bill 24 Dec replacing ECK with new interim body. ECK announced intention to challenge ruling, staff protested loss of jobs. 31 Dec deadline for party registration under July Political Parties Act saw only 30 of some 168 parties in compliance; remaining face closure. Kibaki 2 Jan approved new media law despite U.S., international media concerns over potential to curb press freedom.

Africa

Kenya

Cabinet 27 Nov approved Waki report on post- election violence, paving way for creation of local tribunal to prosecute those responsible. Waki report earlier rejected by both ODM and PNU MPs, but internal party divisions continued and Nov opinion polls showed strong popular support for full Waki implementation. EU threatened sanctions if Waki recommendations not implemented; ICC said ready to act on sealed list of names if Kenya failed to do so. Cabinet also adopted recommendations of Sept Kriegler report for reform of Electoral Commission of Kenya. ECK head Samuel Kivuitu 11 Nov obtained court order preventing disbanding of body, but overruled 28 Nov by parliament. Following reportedly brutal govt crackdown on Oct interclan fighting in northeastern Mandera region, govt announced arrest of over 150 Somali and Ethiopian militiamen and promised to investigate allegations of army rape and torture. Military presence increased in Mandera region in response to early-Nov abduction of 2 Italian nuns by suspected Somali Al-Shabaab insurgents; thousands fled in fear of fighting. UN mid-month warned of possible humanitarian crisis in Somali refugee camps in Dadaab in north east, as increasing numbers arrive from Somalia; refugee population now over 220,000.

Africa

Kenya

Commission of inquiry into post-election violence, established as part of Feb 2008 power-sharing deal, 15 Oct reported to President Kibaki: found politicians on all sides stirred up violence, recommended creation of special tribunal to try those behind violence – charges may include crimes against humanity. Commission produced secret list of alleged high-level perpetrators, to be passed to tribunal or if no tribunal, International Criminal Court. List given to former UNSG Kofi Annan who strongly backed tribunal. Report said state security agencies failed to prepare for violence, police force in need of overhaul. Kibaki 20 Oct voiced support for amnesty in face of divisions within coalition govt parties on whether to implement tribunal, worries among some top ODM and PNU figures. Leaked draft of Kenya National Commission on Human Rights report into post-election violence named 219 individuals allegedly involved, including top officials. Parliament 23 Oct passed bill for truth, justice and reconciliation commission (TJRC). New inter-clan fighting mid-Oct killed up to 20 in Mandera in north east; at least 200 reportedly injured in brutal govt response. UN report 5 Oct said Kenya imported heavy weaponry without reporting to UN as stipulated in international agreements.

Africa

Kenya

After 6-month investigation, commission led by South African retired judge Johann Kriegler investigating post- election violence 17 Sept presented report concluding Dec 2007 election deeply flawed; called for changes to electoral system to avoid future unrest, including reformed Electoral Commission, greater transparency. During Kenya visit, Kofi Annan 22 Sept called on govt to implement recommendations. Some 19 killed, hundreds displaced in 12-18 Sept clashes between herders over water in drought-stricken northern districts of Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu. Govt tightened security along Somali border following early month incursions by Somali raiders. South Sudan apologised 9 Sept for Aug attacks by armed raiders in northern Kenya.

Africa

Kenya

Justice Minister Karua 22 Aug announced new committee to oversee confession, surrender of illegally acquired wealth as part of proposed amnesty law. Former anti- corruption czar John Githongo, returning 19 Aug after 3 years self-exile, supported amnesty for economic crimes following full confessions. Attorney General Wako in address to commission of inquiry into post-election violence said should be no amnesty for perpetrators, as PM Odinga again called for release of 300 suspects. Controversy emerging over Kenya Human Rights Commission report on violence, with early version naming planners and perpetrators including senior officials, later version reportedly exonerating many. Leaked memo proposing high salaries to PM, vice-president’s wives provoked outrage.

Africa

Kenya

Finance Minister Amos Kimunya resigned 8 July after 2 July parliamentary no-confidence vote and attorney general- led inquiry into alleged fraud in sale of govt-owned Nairobi hotel. PM Odinga, Justice Minister Karua 16 July attacked govt record on graft, as 2 more ministers faced scrutiny. Commission investigating post-election violence began hearings 9 July: intelligence chief testimony revealed pre-election warning of violence eruption. 6-month mediation talks closed 31 July; team to monitor reform implementation, as parliamentary bills tabled to restart constitutional review process. Human Rights Watch echoed claims troops committed human rights abuses in operations against Sabaot Land Defence Force (SLDF) in Mount Elgon, as Médècins sans Frontières accused army of blocking activities in region.

Subscribe to Crisis Group’s Email Updates

Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.