CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Implementation of mid-June peace agreement fragile but progressing. Govt refused to recognise FNL as political party without name change, prompting 6 July FNL suspension of combatant assembly and disarmament. Govt 9 July accused FNL of delay and fresh recruitment. Parties 14 July agreed to resume implementation; some 3,000 FNL combatants assembled since 21 July, but few weapons handed in. UN 6 July released $1.3m (from Peacebuilding Fund) for 1-year national consultation on transitional justice mechanisms. 2 of 22 defectors from governing CNDD-FDD sacked June from parliament arrested for alleged security threats.
Spokesperson for FDPC, only major rebel group not signatory to 21 June comprehensive peace agreement, reportedly said group demanding tripartite meeting with APRD, govt. APRD 25 July claimed not consulted over amnesty bill (to be discussed by parliament 1 Aug), armed forces breaching ceasefire. MONUC mandate 12 July transferred to new Central African Community force MICOPAXI. UN Peacebuilding Commission visited Bangui 10-12 July.
Chad 25 July rejected Sudan’s 18 July offer to resume diplomatic ties, severed in May, unless Khartoum abandons links with Chadian rebels. N’Djamena 13 July alleged airspace violations by Sudan; 16 July released statement supporting ICC action against Sudanese President Bashir (see Sudan). UNSG Ban 10 July urged political dialogue between govt and rebel groups, amid reports N’Djamena favouring renewed offensives. Oxfam and Médècins sans Frontières 10 July suspended activities in Kerfi, eastern Chad, due to 8, 9 July attacks on personnel and facilities. In 2 July arrest of Ahmat Israel Bichara, radical Muslim spiritual leader threatening holy war, army killed some 70 followers; 50 others wounded, 4 soldiers killed.
President Sambi appointed new govt 11 July after peaceful June Anjouan election. Former rebel leader Bacar expelled 20 July from French Reunion, taken to Cotonou, Benin. 10 close Bacar allies escaped jail 19 July, fled to French Mayotte.
Govt 21 July halved ministers’ pay and re- introduced fuel subsidies after 6 July withdrawal, ending week- long protests in Abidjan. President Gbagbo 22 July threatened to dissolve “ineffective” consensus govt, 24 July said voter identification delays put 30 Nov elections at risk, prompting opposition outcry. Bouaké calm early month after ex-rebel FN soldiers rioted mid-June, with talks ending 2 July. But mixed FN- army gendarmes 26-27 July blocked Bouaké-Yamoussouko road in further non-payment protests. Arab donors 1 July agreed $463m loan for infrastructure development, reinsertion of ex-combatants. UNSC 29 July renewed mandate of UNOCI, French peacekeepers for further 6 months.
Main opposition Congolese Liberation Movement(MLC) suspended participation in parliament for 1 week to push govt to investigate 6 July death of local MLC politician, blaming elite military unit. Soldier before military tribunal for killing testified 18 July that death was ordered by Kinshasa governor – accusation denied, governor appeared before tribunal 28 July. Rebel attack on environment group vehicle in gorilla park in eastern Congo killed 2, amid reports of renewed North Kivu clashes between Nkunda’s CNDP and Mai-Mai rebels. International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecution filed appeal of trial chamber decisions to stay trial of and release Ituri militia leader Thomas Lubanga. Former VP Jean-Pierre Bemba appeared before ICC 4 July on charges of atrocities committed in CAR, after 3 July transfer from Belgian custody. Parliament unanimously passed amnesty law 12 July for acts of war and rebellion, but not for atrocity crimes, committed in east; awaiting senate approval.
4 opposition parties united 1 July to protest “diminishing political space”, as parliament passed repressive media law. Govt 12 July announced arrest of 8 “Eritrean-trained” OLF and ONLF rebels, suspected of planting April, May bombs in capital. Ogaden rebels claimed 33 soldiers killed in early July clashes, accused govt of blocking aid to region.
UNSC terminated UNMEE peacekeeping mission 31 July, after Eritrea forced troop withdrawal Feb. Both countries played down fears of war as disputed border without international presence for first time in 8 years.
Govt 15 July postponed electoral census to 1 Aug ahead of late 2008 elections, citing financial constraints.
Opposition party PAIGC 26 July withdrew from national stability pact after PM Cabi failed to consult on dismissal of several officials. Electoral census held 3-26 July ahead of Nov elections; low turnout reported. In ongoing anti- drugs struggle, 3 Venezuelan crew and 2 airport staff including head of air-traffic control arrested 19 July after plane cocaine load seized; rumours of army involvement.
Finance Minister Amos Kimunya resigned 8 July after 2 July parliamentary no-confidence vote and attorney general- led inquiry into alleged fraud in sale of govt-owned Nairobi hotel. PM Odinga, Justice Minister Karua 16 July attacked govt record on graft, as 2 more ministers faced scrutiny. Commission investigating post-election violence began hearings 9 July: intelligence chief testimony revealed pre-election warning of violence eruption. 6-month mediation talks closed 31 July; team to monitor reform implementation, as parliamentary bills tabled to restart constitutional review process. Human Rights Watch echoed claims troops committed human rights abuses in operations against Sabaot Land Defence Force (SLDF) in Mount Elgon, as Médècins sans Frontières accused army of blocking activities in region.
Govt 9 July acknowledged deteriorating security, police criminality as violent crime reportedly peaked early July. Justice minister 4 July disclosed plans to combat security service inefficiency.
Algeria resumed mediation role, kick-starting talks between govt and Tuareg rebels: parties 21 July committed to ceasefire, release of hostages/prisoners and refugee return. Algerian delegation in Bamako 14-17 July discussed security cooperation including joint border patrols to combat Tuareg rebellion. Several kidnapped, weapons seized in rebel raid on Tessalit police base 19 July.
In further retaliatory attacks, Tuareg rebel group Niger Justice Movement (MNJ) reportedly 10 July shelled northern army garrison town Agadez after MNJ commander captured 27 June; no casualties reported. MNJ 3 July called on Algeria to mediate. Some 30,000 marched 10 July, Niamey, against ongoing power and food shortages. Rights groups 29 July demanded investigation into $5b China oil deal, alleging secrecy.
Niger Delta (ND) militant group MEND suspended 2-week ceasefire 12 July in protest at UK pledge to assist govt secure Delta. ND violence, targeting oil sites and Nigerian soldiers, continued with reports of community-led attacks; at least 10 killed 16-17 July in Rivers, Bayelsa States; 12 foreign oil workers briefly kidnapped 24 July, 8 others 26 July. MEND claimed responsibility for 2 major 28 July attacks on Shell pipelines, earlier threatened to destroy Bonny Island facilities. Army 22 July accused local politicians of backing militants, 30 July reported at least 4 killed in clashes between vying militant groups. Govt 16 July scrapped plans for Delta peace summit after local opposition and 10 July withdrawal of proposed chair Gambari. Militant group opposed to 14 Aug transfer of Bakassi peninsula to Cameroon attacked Cameroonian border guards 13 July: 10 reportedly killed in 22 July clashes. Court 31 July ordered transfer delay, govt appeal expected. Soldiers 4 July blocked major roads in Akure, Ondo State, over alleged UN pay cuts for peacekeepers in Liberia. Senate inquiry report accused 2 aviation ministers, arrested 1 July, and ex-Abuja minister el-Rufai of massive corruption under previous administration. Election of Cross River State governor annulled and David Mark’s senate presidency upheld, in continuing appeals of 2007’s flawed elections.
Parliament 17 July unanimously passed bill granting former presidents immunity for crimes committed but not prosecuted during time in office. Move perceived as response to French, Spanish judicial accusations against President Kagame for role during genocide. Callixte Mbarushimana, major genocide fugitive and FDLR official, arrested 7 July in Frankfurt airport. UNSC 18 July announced extension of ICTR mandate until end 2009; govt affirmed continued support despite frustrations with progress. 13-year UNSC arms embargo lifted 10 July. Gacaca courts’ jurisdiction extended 1 July to cover rape. Rwandan prosecutors 30 July accused 670 Burundians of participating in genocide; said would issue some international arrest warrants.
Parliament 29 July approved controversial law extending presidential term from 5 to 7 years effective from 2012. Ruling PDS party 27 July promised to block critical media, urged boycott. 1 killed 22 July in violent robbery reportedly by separatist rebels in Casamance region. Constitutional amendment passed allowing prosecution of past war crimes in step towards trial of exiled ex-Chadian President Habré.
Local elections held 5 July; UN envoy Schulenburg said “generally fair”. UN Peacebuilding Fund 17 July approved $17m for social reform projects. Army deployed in Tongo ahead of elections after series of inter-party attacks. 58 arrested 13 July over large cocaine load intercepted from Venezuela; tightened drug bill approved 21 July.
Divisions in Islamist opposition threatening already fragile June peace deal, as hardliner Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys 23 July claimed leadership of Asmara-based opposition Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) from moderate Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed; UN envoy Ould-Abdallah dismissed claim. Aweys rejected govt-ARS Djibouti deal for failing to set firm deadline for Ethiopian troop withdrawal, though ARS central committee 19 July endorsed agreement despite missed ceasefire deadline. Aweys said 28 July would not negotiate with Ahmed’s faction, promised to pacify country through Islamic law. Violence continued: Al-Shabaab attacked govt headquarters in Baidoa 7 July, killing 4 soldiers; some 19 killed in end-month Beledweyne clashes. PM Nur Hussein Hassan called for immediate UN troop deployment agreed in June deal, Ould-Abdallah urged ”decisive” UN action 23 July; AU extended AMISOM mandate by 6 months but 23 July said incapable of stabilising situation, Rwanda promised troops by year-end; 1 peacekeeper killed 1 Aug. Humanitarian operations threatened by apparent targeting of aid workers and lack of navy escorts for food shipments. Gunmen shot dead UNDP Somalia head in Mogadishu 5 July; 4 other Somali nationals working for local NGOs, WFP and 3 elders helping distribute food killed in month. Islamists denied targeting aid workers, blamed govt and Ethiopian forces; Aweys 23 July promised protection.
Mid-month standoff after Somaliland troops seized strategic coastal town Las Qoray in disputed Sanaag region; Puntland threatened retaliation, amid reports Somalia arming Puntland. Police 7 July reportedly killed 3 while dispersing protest against local administration decision in Somaliland capital Hargeisa.
International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo 14 July applied for arrest warrant for Sudanese President Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes – much-feared regime response so far restrained; progress on stalled Darfur peace process and CPA implementation possible as judges consider application. AU, Arab League, China warned of damage to peace process. Ruling NCP organised ICC protests. Bashir in rare Darfur visit 23 July, accompanied by U.S., UK officials, emphasised peace efforts – rebels reported subsequent army attacks. Plans for politically inclusive conference on Darfur reported 31 July. Retaliation fears prompted increased UN security, compounded by 17 July killing of UNAMID peacekeeper that followed 9 July attack killing 7 UNAMID. AU 21 July requested UNSC defer ICC prosecution; France, UK said too soon to consider. UNSC 31 July extended UNAMID 1 year, noted AU request; U.S. abstained from vote. Northern, southern armies withdrew end-July from disputed Abyei region following May clashes, allowing joint force deployment. Khartoum offer to resume diplomatic ties with Chad, cut after May rebel attack on capital, rejected: 8 JEM sentenced to death for involvement (see Chad). New election law signed 7 July: prospect of first free elections in 23 years in 2009; opposition and former rebels’ support tempered by concern over NCP advantage. Southern SPLM leader Salva Kiir 27 July announced would run for presidency. Sudan claimed Ethiopian soldiers killed 19 in 7 July attack on northern military camp; Ethiopia dismissed incident, blamed poorly demarcated border.
Peace process continued to falter as deal still without LRA leader Joseph Kony signature. Kony 16 July made fresh demands on conditions for talks, following call for security and supplies; govt granted LRA negotiator James Obita amnesty 31 July. President Museveni reiterated 23 July no further negotiations, as defence chief threatened military action. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir called for continued negotiations, as South Sudanese lawmakers 7 July recommended ICC defer warrants against LRA. Reports emerged that UPDF implicated in June, July attacks in Southern Sudan, some previously blamed on LRA; Uganda rejected claims. State media 20 July reported Museveni to run for fourth term in 2011; tensions rising within ruling NRM. Rebel Allied Democratic Forces requested peace talks 29 July to end 12-year insurgency in west; govt agreed.
In historic face-to-face meeting, rivals President Mugabe and MDC opposition leader Tsvangirai 21 July agreed to negotiate on way out of violent, 4-month election crisis. Parties, including MDC faction led by Mutambara, agreed to 2-week talks on formation of power- sharing govt – substantial challenges remain, including leadership and duration of govt, role of security services. Talks began 24 July in Pretoria, halted 29 July with reported deadlock, due to resume 3 Aug. Talks brought lift to much- criticised mediator South African President Mbeki, leading expanded team including AU and UN as demanded by MDC. State violence declined from June peak, but MDC say new MPs routinely harassed, over 1,500 supporters still detained, some 120 MDC killed since Apr. Reports of reprisal attacks near Bulawayo on ruling ZANU-PF cadres by Zimbabweans returning from May violence in South Africa. EU 22 July extended sanctions targets: now 168 individuals and, for first time, companies linked to Mugabe govt; U.S. expanded sanctions 25 July. G8 leaders 8 July vowed to tighten sanctions, but UNSC resolution 11 July blocked by Russia, China vetoes. Economic crisis deepened as inflation over 2m% amid acute shortages and reports of large-scale ZANU-PF capital flight.
Brazen 7 July car bomb attack outside Indian embassy killed over 40 including 2 senior diplomats; deadliest attack in capital since 2001. Kabul accused Pakistan intelligence agency, ISI, of involvement; suspended meetings with Islamabad 15 July until “bilateral trust” restored. Anger at civilian casualties caused by international forces continued, including over 6 July Nangarhar wedding party bombing that killed some 40, reportedly many women and children. 9 U.S. troops killed in 13 July attack on Kunar province outpost as U.S. deaths in Afghanistan outpaced those in Iraq. Thousands of Hazaras protested in Kabul, Bamiyan over recent clashes with nomad Kuchis in Wardak province amid ongoing pastoral land disputes. President Karzai fired attorney general after latter announced would stand in presidential elections due 2009. Senior Taliban commander Abdul Rasaq reported killed, Taliban Helmand commander Mullah Rahim detained in Pakistan.
Matiur Rahman Nizami, Jamaat-e-Islami leader, freed on bail 15 July following May arrest on corruption charges.
Further talks between govt and Dalai Lama envoys 1-2 July, latter expressed disappointment at lack of progress; more talks agreed for Oct. Security forces claimed 10 July success foiling purported “terrorist” plots against Olympics; 5 Uighur Muslim suspects killed in related crackdown, 82 detained in Xinjiang. China and Russia FMs signed agreement 21 July settling 40-year border dispute.
String of some 15 explosions in Gujarat city Ahmedabad 26 July killed at least 45, injured over 160. “Indian Mujahideen” claimed role, as in May Jaipur blasts. Bombs came day after 7 small explosions in Bangalore killed 1, injured 6. Police said discovered 10 unexploded bombs in Surat, Gujarat, 29 July. 24 police killed in Malkangiri, Orissa blast 16 July, blamed on Maoist rebels.
New ceasefire violations by both sides along Line of Control included reported 12-hour gunfire exchange 28 July, marking month of deterioration in Indo-Pakistani relations. Tensions sparked by deadly, well-organised bombings targeting Indian interests: 7 July blast at Kabul embassy (see Afghanistan), bombings in Bangalore and Ahmedabad 25, 26 July (see India). 21 July composite dialogue talks remained on track, but India said process “under stress”. Violence in India- controlled Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) increased with numerous attacks, including 19 July bus attack that killed at least 9 Indian soldiers. J&K regional govt fell 7 July after resignation of chief minister in wake of June Hindu shrine dispute.
Commission on Truth and Friendship, convened by Indonesia and Timor-Leste (T-L) to examine human rights violations in T-L in 1999, submitted final report to President Yudhoyono, T-L President Ramos-Horta 15 July. Report held Indonesian military, police and civilian govt “institutionally responsible” for abuses carried out by Timorese militias set up and armed by Indonesian military. Yudhoyono expressed regret for country’s actions, but legal action unlikely. Campaigning began for Apr 2009 parliamentary elections.
Six-party talks resumed 10-12 July, after 9-month delay, following Pyongyang’s 26 June nuclear declaration: DPRK pledged to disable main reactor at Yongbyon by Oct. U.S. Sec State Rice held bilateral talks with FM Pak Ui-chun in highest level encounter yet between U.S. and DPRK; talks focused on methodology for verifying declaration. ROK President Lee called for renewed talks on denuclearisation, humanitarian cooperation in 11 July address to National Assembly, but same-day shooting of South Korean tourist at Mt. Keumgang, and DPRK’s refusal to investigate, seriously strained relations.
4-day state of emergency imposed after 1 July riots in which 5 killed, some 700 arrested, followed disputed 29 June elections. Opposition parties demanded recounts in some districts, though independent observers said polls largely well conducted. Riots saw destruction of governing MPRP headquarters. All 25 Democratic Party MPs walked out of 23 July swearing-in ceremony.
Tripartite Core Group presented report at ASEAN FMs summit 20-21 July: estimated post-cyclone recovery costs at $1b. UN OCHA head 22 July said relief operations progressing but aid needed in remote areas. ASEAN FMs said Aung San Suu Kyi’s continued detention “deep disappointment”. 15 July bus bombing outside Yangon reportedly killed 1. U.S. hardened sanctions 29 July, targeting military control over precious stones.
Constituent Assembly elected as president Ram Baran Yadav, Nepali Congress candidate from the Tarai, in 21 July run-off. Maoists initially refused to form unity govt, but 25 July said would relent if 3 conditions met: minimum 2 years in power, dissolution of opposition alliance, support for “minimum program”. Yadav 29 July asked Maoists to form govt quickly. UN mission (UNMIN) extended 6 months 23 July.
Peace agreement with Sunni militant sect in Lashkar-i-Islami in Bara, Khyber agency reached 9 July after 12-day military operation: govt said would end curfew imposed 28 June, release captured militants. Baitullah Mehsud 17 July threatened attacks on Awami National Party-led NWFP govt and ANP leaders if operations against militants continued. Scattered attacks elsewhere: 6 July Islamabad bombing killed 18; 7 July explosions in Karachi wounded some 40. Violence erupted in Balochistan following security operations there. In 28-30 June Washington visit, PM Gilani sought support, promised to tackle militancy.
Talks between Manila and MILF reached agreement on crucial “ancestral domain” issue, which could lead to expansion of autonomous Muslim region in Mindanao. But full details not released and significant hurdles remain. Key issue in talks was timing of referendum in south on joining new autonomous entity: now due 1 year after signing of formal “framework agreement” (scheduled 5-6 Aug in Kuala Lumpur). President Arroyo called on legislature to delay 11 Aug elections due in existing ARMM autonomous region after MILF argued vote would prejudice future expanded entity.
Sri Lankan Army captured LTTE coastal base at Vidattaltivu 15 July, believed to be major logistics centre and port of entry for arms smuggled from India. Humanitarian situation in LTTE-controlled north worsened; tens of thousands newly displaced without adequate shelter, supplies. Army chief cited saying insurgency could last “forever”, despite earlier predictions of conventional defeat. Tigers offered limited ceasefire during SAARC summit 26 Jul-4 Aug, but govt dismissed. TMVP leader Karuna released from British jail and returned to Sri Lanka to recommence political work.
Regular direct cross-strait charter flights began 4 July. U.S. Pacific Command head Adm Keating 17 July said U.S. arms sales to Taiwan frozen as part of “administration policy” amid warming cross-strait ties. 5 former ministers who served under former president Chen Shui-bian indicted on corruption charges 15 July for misuse of expense accounts, in ongoing corruption scandal surrounding Chen.
Tensions with Cambodia rose after Preah Vihear temple, subject of historic border dispute, granted UNESCO World Heritage status; troops in border standoff since Cambodia briefly detained 3 Thai protesters 15 July. Bilateral talks 21 July failed to resolve, but resumed 28 July following Cambodian elections. Thai govt opponents used row to force resignation of FM Patama 10 July. Deputy leader of governing PPP Yongyuth disqualified from parliament over vote-rigging charge, could mean party dissolution. Ongoing violence in south increased, despite 17 July “ceasefire” announcement by man claiming to represent insurgent umbrella group thought defunct since 1987.
President Ramos-Horta and PM Gusmão indicated satisfaction at Indonesia President Yudhoyono’s regret for human rights violations surrounding Timor’s 1999 referendum (see Indonesia). Ramos-Horta said would not seek further judicial proceedings. Ramos-Horta proposing new amnesty legislation for perpetrators of 2006 violence. Police in Dili 7 July used tear gas to disperse student protest.
Some 5,000 in anti-govt rally in Yerevan; opposition announced month of daily protests. Small signs of Armenian- Turkish rapprochement as President Sarkisian 6 July met Turkish President Gul in Astana, Kazakhstan; invited Gul to watch football match in Yerevan Sept.
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs visited Baku, Yerevan 27-28 July to discuss Nov 2007 Madrid proposals. Armenia, Azerbaijan presidents to discuss proposals 1 Aug in Moscow. Armenian serviceman reportedly killed 19 July in attempt to cross border in Tovuz region.
Ahead of Oct presidential elections, opposition candidate Eldar Namazov filed complaint against Central Election Commission for failure to start campaign. Russian President Medvedev visited 3 July to discuss energy deal. Opposition journalist Khalil allowed to leave for France 24 July.
Wave of ETA arrests: police 24 July detained 9 alleged members including leader Arkaitz Goikoetxea near Bilbao; further 8 arrested 22 July in Bilbao. Blasts targeted holiday resorts: 4 bombs 20 July in Laredo, Noja, ETA claimed responsibility; further explosion 29 July in Torremolinos; bomb 20 July in Getxo; no casualties.
Some 50 injured in 4 July explosion at Minsk concert marking independence day, further unexploded bomb later found. President Lukashenka dismissed 2 leading security officials; police briefly detained 4 opposition activists.
Arrest of former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic 21 July (see Serbia) mostly greeted with celebrations; pro-Karadzic and Mladic posters appeared in some Republika Srpska towns, removed by authorities. ICTY appeals chamber 3 July overturned 2006 war crimes conviction of Bosnian Muslim Naser Oric. Dutch court 10 July ruled it had no jurisdiction to hear civil suit against UN by survivors of 1995 Srebrenica massacre, affirming UN immunity. 7 Bosnian Serbs convicted, 4 acquitted of genocide in Sarajevo court 29 July for role in Srebrenica, first such trial in Bosnia. Office of High Representative 7 July called for Federation talks over cash crisis.
Continued clashes between security forces, militants saw 5 police, 1 militant killed; rebels fatally shot prosecutor 18 July in Grozny. Roadside bomb near Belgatoi village killed police commander. President Kadyrov 20 July called on Russia to withdraw army from properties occupied “without legal basis”. Mass grave of 300 alleged victims of 1999 Russian attack unearthed 2 July.