China’s live-fire drills around Taiwan spilled over into Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), while Tokyo and Beijing held first high-level dialogue since Feb 2020. Five ballistic missiles – fired during Chinese live-fire drill in retaliation for U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan visit (see Taiwan Strait) – 4 Aug landed in Japan’s EEZ in first ever such incident; Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi described event as “grave matter”, while China said it did not recognise Japan’s EEZ. Despite incident, China and Japan 17 Aug held high level security talks in first such dialogue between two countries since Feb 2020; both countries agreed to continue communication. As of 28 Aug, 113 Chinese vessels had entered Japan’s contiguous zone during month, including 16 identified in Japan’s territorial waters. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force 3-9 Aug conducted military drill during U.S.-led RIMPAC joint exercise, which saw Izumo aircraft carrier and Takanami destroyer participate. PM Fumio Kishida 10 Aug appointed veteran Liberal Democratic Party legislator Yasukazu Hamada as new defence minister in Cabinet reshuffle; Hamada served as defence minister 2008-2009 under former PM Taro Aso.

China continued naval activity in and around Japan’s territorial waters, while Japanese PM Kishida voiced desire to revise strictly pacifist constitution. As of 31 July, 114 Chinese coast guard vessels had entered waters around contested Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and 12 entered Japan’s territorial sea. Notably, Chinese vessel 4 July entered contiguous zone around islands to chase Russian vessel from area in what Tokyo called apparent attempt to assert Chinese sovereignty over islands; Chinese vessel had entered contiguous zone of islands only three times before, in 2016, 2018 and last month. Japan, Australia and U.S. 4-6 July conducted trilateral training exercise in East China Sea; Japan and U.S. 8 July held bilateral exercises in same area, including aerial exercises. In its annual report, Japan’s defence ministry 23 July said China continues to unilaterally change status quo in East and South China Seas. Following 8 July assassination of former PM Shinzo Abe in Japan, ruling Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito party 10 July retained majority in upper house elections; Japanese PM Kishida next day said he would push forward efforts to revise constitution’s Article 9, which renounces war, in line with both parties’ and Abe’s wishes.

Japanese military monitored increased operations by Chinese and Russian vessels around Japanese territorial waters, while Tokyo condemned Beijing’s construction activities in East China Sea. Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force 3 June sighted Chinese naval group sailing south east in area some 75 miles north west of Japan’s Amami Oshima Island. China’s largest destroyer Type 055 Lhasa 15 June held first long-range sea drills in Japan Sea since being commissioned in March 2021. As of 26 June, 102 Chinese vessels had entered Japan’s contiguous zone, including 14 identified in Japan’s territorial sea. Seven Russian warships 13-17 June passed near Izu Islands, south of Japanese capital Tokyo, in first such Russian presence since Oct 2021. Japanese defence ministry 17 June said it is on alert over increasing Russian and Chinese military activity near its territory. Japan 20 June confirmed China’s completion of new platform — its 17th —linked to gas field development in East China Sea, after earlier in month protesting Beijing’s moves to build 18th structure; Japan and China suspended negotiations on joint gas development in area in 2010. China and Japan foreign ministries 23 June held talks related to East China Sea. At annual Shangri-La Dialogue international summit held in Singapore, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida 10 June delivered keynote address outlining “Kishida vision of Peace” where Japan would boost regional defence and security role and commit to “realism diplomacy”, said Japan was standing firm against “unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force” in East China Sea; Kishida also described Taiwan Strait stability as “of extreme importance” (see Taiwan).

China conducted series of maritime and aerial military drills and dispatched scores of vessels into Japan’s contiguous zone, while Tokyo stepped up overseas engagement. Chinese Liaoning aircraft carrier group comprising eight vessels 2 May sailed near main Okinawa island and transited Miyako Straits towards Philippine Sea, holding three-week-long naval drill and conducting some 300 plane and helicopter sorties; in response, Japan immediately dispatched aircraft carrier Izumo to monitor movements. Chinese navy 3 May released details of “realistic combat exercise” in East China Sea; navy also held sea and air drills 5-8 May to south east and south west of Taiwan (see Taiwan) and naval drills in Yellow Sea 15 May with largest destroyer Type 055 Lhasa. As of 19 May, 102 Chinese vessels had entered Japan’s contiguous zone, including eight identified in Japan’s territorial sea. China 13 May voiced discontent over EU-Japan joint statement mentioning dispute over Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Japan’s foreign ministry 20 May lodged protest against China’s unilateral gas field development in East China Sea. Japan 24 May scrambled jets as Russian and Chinese aircraft conducted joint area patrol near its airspace, coinciding with meeting same day of “Quad” countries, U.S., India and Australia in Japanese capital Tokyo; Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi called Russia-China action “provocative”. USS Ronald Reagan 17 May conducted joint exercises off Japanese coast with Japan’s maritime self-defence force. Meanwhile, Japan boosted international engagement during month with high-level overseas trips, highlighting Indo-Pacific regional stability and Ukraine crisis; notably, PM Fumio Kishida 29 April-6 May travelled to Europe and Southeast Asia 5 May, warning that “Ukraine may be East Asia tomorrow”; China next day accused Tokyo of “hyping up the so-called China threat”.

Japan reported uptick in Chinese aircraft incursions last year and proposed expanding defence budget to meet threats from China and North Korea. Japan Defence Ministry 15 April said it scrambled fighter jets on over 1,000 separate occasions in 2021 in response to aircraft approaching its airspace, up from 725 previous year; 722 scrambles were in response to Chinese aircraft, with majority over disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. As of 27 April, 84 Chinese vessels entered waters surrounding Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands during month; notably, four Chinese govt ships 12 April entered territorial waters, in sixth such incursion this year. Japan and U.S. 12-13 April conducted bilateral exercises in Sea of Japan. Russia 14 April launched cruise missiles from submarines in Sea of Japan as part of unilateral exercise involving fifteen vessels and aircraft. In first such report since Nov 2021, Japan 27 April announced Chinese navy ship sailed through its territorial waters. Meanwhile, Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi 5 April said he would request raised defence budget for next year to manage Chinese and North Korean challenges. In sign of Japan recalibrating its traditional pacifist stance, ruling Liberal Democratic Party 15 April proposed country acquire enemy base strike capability.

U.S. and Japan held military exercise, Chinese maritime incursions continued around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, and Russian military activity increased around disputed Kuril Islands. Japanese and U.S. troops 13-25 March held amphibious exercise practicing for enemy invasion of remote Japanese island. As of 28 March, 91 Chinese vessels had entered waters surrounding disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands during month; notably, four Chinese coast guard vessels 16 March passed through territorial sea of islands. Russia 10 March conducted military exercises on two Kuril Islands, controlled by Russia and claimed by Japan; six Russian vessels 14 March reportedly transited Soya Strait. One Russian vessel 14 March transited Tsugaru Strait and four Russian tank-landing ships 15-16 March reportedly transited strait toward Sea of Japan; Japanese Defence Ministry 17 March said vessels were possibly carrying equipment to Ukraine. In response to sanctions imposed by Japan for its invasion of Ukraine, Russia 21 March announced its withdrawal from dialogue to establish joint economic activities in Southern Kurils as well as peace treaty talks. Meanwhile, Chinese FM Wang Yi 7 March advised Japan to avoid “serious disruption” in bilateral relations, pointing to “major sensitive issues such as history and Taiwan”, and urged countries to be “partners, not threats”. After former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe late Feb urged Japanese govt to discuss possibility of nuclear sharing with U.S. (hosting U.S. nuclear weapons), citing potential threats from “neighbour that has no qualms about using armed force”, PM Fumio Kishida 7 March called idea “unacceptable”; senior lawmakers in ruling Democratic Party, however, continued discussions on idea, including shared decision-making in event of crisis.

Japan held joint military exercise with U.S. and participated in security talks with U.S., Australia and India. Japan and U.S. 3-7 Feb held joint exercise sea area from Luzon Strait to Mikyako Strait and East China Sea; Chinese state media 10 Feb said army conducted exercises in South China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea in response. U.S., Australian, Indian and Japanese FMs in 11 Feb Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (“Quad”) meeting issued joint statement reiterating importance of adhering to international law to “meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order, including in the South and East China Seas”. Japan’s Ishigaki City mayor 1 Feb said city employees and Tokai University 31 Jan conducted survey of disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands for conservation efforts and fishing, and indicated potential petitioning of central govt for permission to install sign on disputed islands to indicate Japanese authority; city council opposition said survey would damage relations with China. As of 23 Feb, 60 Chinese coast guard vessels had entered waters surrounding Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands during month.

Japan deepened defence ties with Australia and U.S., while encounters between Chinese and Japanese vessels in disputed waters reportedly doubled in 2021 compared to previous year. Japan and Australia 6 Jan signed reciprocal access agreement to facilitate enhanced cooperation between two militaries, marking first time Tokyo signed such security agreement with govt other than U.S.. Japan and U.S. next day held “two-plus-two” talks between defence and foreign ministers, announcing plan to conduct joint research on defence technologies including hypersonic missiles and space capabilities, and increase joint use of military facilities in Japan including south-western islands close to both Taiwan and disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. As of 30 Jan, 105 Chinese coast guard vessels had entered waters surrounding Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands during month. Japanese media 8 Jan reported Chinese coast guard vessels approached Japanese fishing vessels around disputed islands 29 times during 2021, doubling 2020 number. In 17 Jan speech, Japanese PM Fumio Kishida noted 50th anniversary of normalisation between Japan and China occurring in 2022, saying Japan would “aim to build a constructive and stable relationship” with China.

Former PM Abe issued controversial remarks on Taiwan, sparking Chinese diplomatic protest, while dozens of Chinese vessels entered waters around disputed islands. Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi 27 Dec said he agreed with Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe on opening up a hotline between two countries’ officials amid tensions over disputed islets in the East China Sea. Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe 1 Dec said invasion of Taiwan is major threat to Japan’s territory and Taiwan-Japan relations are comparable to U.S.-Japan alliance; China’s Assistant FM Hua Chunying same day called emergency meeting with Japanese ambassador to protest Abe’s “extremely wrong remarks”; Japanese ambassador said Tokyo will not accept Beijing’s “unilateral assertion”. Joint press release following EU-U.S. high-level dialogue on China 2 Dec “expressed strong concern over China’s problematic and unilateral actions in the South and East China Seas”. Japanese govt 17 Dec revealed plans for creating senior diplomatic post focused on maritime issues in East China Sea, namely Taiwan and Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Japan Ground Self-Defense Force alongside U.S. 4-17 Dec held largest bilateral training exercise of year in Japan, Resolute Dragon 2021. Japanese PM Kishida 6 Dec said Japan would “examine all the options, including the capability to attack enemy bases … and fundamentally strengthen our defence posture with a sense of speed”. As of 19 Dec, 58 Chinese coast guard vessels had entered into waters surrounding disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands during month. Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning 31 Dec concluded 20-day exercise in East China Sea and western Pacific, reportedly shadowed by Japanese aircraft carrier Izumo during drills.

Japan deepened ties with Germany and reaffirmed alliance with U.S., while China held live-fire drills. German navy frigate Bayern 4 Nov conducted joint exercises with Japanese navy, next day docked in Japanese capital Tokyo for first time in 20 years; Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi said Japan and Germany will increase cooperation in South China Sea. Japan’s newly appointed FM Yoshimasa Hayashi 12 Nov spoke with U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken, who reaffirmed alliance between U.S. and Japan as “the cornerstone of peace, security, and prosperity in the region, and globally”. China 3 Nov held live-fire drills in East China Sea, in likely response to late Oct U.S.-Japan joint exercises in South China Sea. As of 28 Nov, 80 Chinese coast guard vessels had entered waters surrounding disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku island chain, marked decrease from previous months. Japan’s and China’s foreign ministries 10 Nov held meeting on East China Sea; Japanese officials expressed concerns over China’s increasing military activities while Chinese officials called on Japan to avoid actions that could complicate security situation; both sides agreed to continue work on military hotline. Japan, U.S., Australia, Canada and Germany 21-30 Nov held joint naval exercise off southern Japanese coast. Reports mid-month indicated Japan was undertaking restructuring of its defence forces to increase integration between ground and maritime forces, likely in response to possible future Chinese military campaign against Taiwan as well as reflecting need to defend Tokyo’s Ryukyu island chain.