CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Uganda

Continued attacks on civilians in northern Uganda by Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), including outskirts of Gulu town. LRA leaders reportedly in southern Sudan. Peace moves stalled: chief government mediator, Betty Bigombe, contacted LRA leader Joseph Kony 13 April, but President Museveni expressed preference for military victory. Understanding between ICC and northern Uganda community leaders improved through meetings in Uganda and The Hague. Debate over end to Uganda’s no-party system continued ahead of proposed June referendum on constitutional changes which would allow third term for Museveni.

Africa

Uganda

Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) increased attacks northern Uganda following expiry of government ceasefire and apparent failure of peace bid; Gulu and Kitgum districts particularly affected. LRA returned to tactics of abduction and mutilation: local officials said more than 70 civilians abducted and 80 defence officials killed. Army claimed had forced LRA leader Joseph Kony into Sudan. Northern Ugandan Acholi community leaders went to Hague in bid to convince ICC that issuing indictments would undermine possibility of LRA accepting amnesty deal; ICC moves further criticised by government mediator Betty Bigombe. But government minister Grace Akello reiterated position that LRA commanders should be tried by ICC. Parliament moved closer to accepting end to term limits for presidency and allowing president Museveni to stand again in March 2006 elections; police broke up Kampala opposition demonstration.

Africa

Uganda

Peace moves to end 18-year Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency edged forward: opportunity for resolution exists, but will require international engagement. Eighteen-day limited government ceasefire announced 4 February in areas between Gulu and Kitgum. Government subsequently said talks would continue beyond ceasefire expiry; LRA attack following expiry killed 10 civilians. LRA Brigadier Sam Kolo defected to army following dispute with deputy leader Vincent Otti, who will replace him as chief LRA negotiator. Ugandan President Museveni said defection showed success of army campaign; some MPs said Museveni undermining chief government negotiator Betty Bigombe. Referendum on amending constitution to allow return to multi- party politics scheduled for 30 June.

Africa

Uganda

Limited unilateral government ceasefire ended 31 December, marking return to twin military and negotiating strategy for ending Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency. Government envoy Betty Bigombe held new meetings with LRA commander Sam Kolo. Army said 28 LRA rebels killed in separate incidents in Palabek 20 January; government officials and LRA met same day Gulu, 20 km to south. Following end of Sudanese north-south civil war, John Garang, leader of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, gave LRA 72 hours to leave Sudan, further depriving LRA of refuge outside Uganda. Meanwhile, thousands of refugees from Congolese North Kivu and Ituri provinces entered Uganda, according to UNHCR. Domestically, President Museveni strengthened grip through cabinet reshuffle ahead of debate on possible third term from 2006. International Criminal Court expressed hope first Ugandan war crimes trials could begin within 6 months.

Africa

Uganda

Negotiations between government envoy Betty Bigombe and Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) suspended 1 January and limited government ceasefire ended. Interior Minister Ruganda and LRA Brigadier Sam Kolo both had expressed confidence in wider ceasefire agreement; rebels unable to sign due to internal disagreements. LRA rebels subsequently blamed for 1 January attack on army truck near Gulu. Violence continued through month outside ceasefire zone: 30 LRA rebels killed in separate clashes Goma Hills and Kitgum; LRA ambushes killed several in Pader district while church leaders claimed LRA killed 7 civilians southern Sudan 10 December. Moves to allow President Museveni to renege on 2001 promise to stand down 2006 continued with proposals for constitutional reform.

Africa

Uganda

Doubt over potential peace talks between Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and government. President Museveni, initially sceptical, accepted LRA overtures 14 November, announcing 1-week unilateral ceasefire in Acholi. Ceasefire expired without progress but further ceasefire offer open until 3 December. Ugandan army intelligence officer reported killed 19 November by LRA forces while army claimed 10 rebels killed southern Sudan 23 November, feeding scepticism over peace prospects. LRA leader Joseph Kony reportedly demanded 100-day ceasefire and insisted talks take place with LRA’s chosen interlocutors at Nasitu, southern Sudan, 15 December; Museveni insisted talks take place within Uganda in declared demilitarised zone. LRA deputy Otti reportedly said Ugandan chief of defence staff position must be reserved for LRA candidate. Meanwhile, Uganda expelled Rwandan diplomat on claims Rwanda helped train Ugandan People’s Redemption Army rebels; Rwanda expelled Ugandan diplomat in retaliation.

Africa

Uganda

Briefing UN Security Council 21 October, UN Under-Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs Jan Egeland called northern Uganda biggest neglected humanitarian emergency in world. Meanwhile, army claimed continuing success of military campaign; 15 Lord’s Resistance Army insurgents killed near Kitgum 16-17 October. Uganda Human Rights Commission criticised impunity for torture committed by army.

Africa

Uganda

President Museveni rejected Acholi Religious Leaders’ Peace Initiative to end 18-year conflict with Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels northern Uganda. Museveni continued to seek military victory; army claimed 30 LRA rebels killed in operations southern Sudan 18 September, further 21 killed northern Uganda 28 September. Presidency won Supreme Court reversal of earlier decision nullifying 2000 referendum which prolonged Uganda’s one-party rule. Museveni likely to seek constitutional referendum to allow him to stand in 2006 elections for third term.

Africa

Uganda

Combination of extended amnesty law and military pressure further weakened LRA, raising hopes for end to conflict, though President Museveni discounted possibility of political – rather than military – peace. LRA said leader Joseph Kony willing to talk to Museveni. Ugandan army claimed 10 LRA rebels killed 24 August. Further 14 killed in Parajok, southern Sudan, 26 August. LRA surrenders continued as 32 fighters, including 3 commanders, gave themselves up 15 August, taking total fighters surrendered over last 2 months above 500. Catholic church claimed war could end soon, but warned of difficulties of converting “military peace” to “social peace”. ICC investigators began work northern Uganda.

Africa

Uganda

Government claimed Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels increasingly weak as result of Operation Iron Fist II in southern Sudan: numerous defections and 14 July capture of Brigadier Kenneth Banya, key member of LRA high command. Ugandan army says nearly caught LRA leader Joseph Kony with raid on Sudanese town of Juba 29 July, killing 120. LRA active, killing 100 in southern Sudan raids near Moti. International Criminal Court began investigation into LRA war crimes in northern Uganda.

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