Political situation remained volatile as second dialogue attempt between govt and opposition Civic Alliance ended 3 April without reaching agreements on issues including justice and electoral calendar. Talks broke down over justice mechanisms for victims of govt repression, govt’s opposition to return of international human rights monitoring bodies to oversee implementation of possible agreement, and opposition’s desire to hold early elections. Implementation of agreements reached 29 March on release of all political prisoners and strengthening of rights also stalled; govt recognised 230 of 700 prisoners on opposition list, failed to coordinate with International Committee of the Red Cross which is supposedly overseeing prisoners’ release, and continued repressive tactics including temporarily detaining 160 people 14-21 April. Civic Alliance 23 April met with representatives of church and Organization of American States (OAS), mediators of dialogue, to discuss govt’s failure to abide by agreements. Govt 24 April announced it would not hold early elections despite OAS and opposition pressure. International condemnation of govt continued; UN Human Rights Council 22 March approved resolution condemning human rights abuses and requesting UN High Commissioner to produce report on country. U.S. 5 April convened OAS Permanent Council to discuss situation and expressed threats of further action. Amid deteriorating economic situation, U.S. 17 April imposed sanctions on recently nationalised banking regulator Bancorp and President Ortega’s son.

Despite progress in dialogue between govt and opposition, political situation remained tense as govt continued repression and faced further international isolation. Following 27 Feb resumption of govt talks with opposition Civic Alliance, parties 5 March agreed on roadmap for technical and procedural issues in negotiations, and agreed to invite Episcopal Conference (CEN) to act as witness, but CEN 8 March refused. On invitation of govt 14 March, Organization of American States (OAS) appointed Luis Ángel Rosadilla as special representative to explore possibilities for OAS to act as guarantor, conditioning Rosadilla’s participation on release of political prisoners. Govt 20 March agreed to release all political prisoners over three-month period, with International Committee of the Red Cross overseeing release, to restart negotiation with opposition. Opposition representative 29 March reported govt agreed to restore protest and press freedoms and disarm paramilitary groups. However repression continued as human rights defenders reported govt continued detaining opponents. Opposition Blue and White National Unity (UNAB) 16 March held unauthorised protests in Managua; police violently repressed demonstrations, wounding eight people, arresting more than 100 including two Civic Alliance negotiators, and harassing journalists covering protests, though detainees were released same day; UNAB 30 March said police had suppressed protest in Managua, with ten demonstrators detained and several injured. Govt’s international isolation increased; European Parliament 14 March adopted resolution calling on EU to impose targeted sanctions against govt officials and suspend country’s Association Agreement with EU, which gives Nicaragua preferential trade access. U.S. envoy Todd Robinson 18 March stated U.S. had not ruled out any options, including military action; U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo 27 March aired possibility of further sanctions. Economic conditions continued to deteriorate.

Facing mounting international pressure and economic crisis govt resumed National Dialogue 27 Feb, following visits of delegations from U.S., EU, and Organization of American States (OAS), and an exploratory meeting with private sector representatives 16 Feb. But situation remained volatile as govt alternated between repression of opposition and NGOs and détente measures. Police raided local NGO 7 Feb, withholding its equipment and detaining two workers. Judge 19 Feb sentenced two peasant leaders to over 200 years in prison. Police 25 Feb harassed José Pallais, negotiator for opposition Civic Alliance, and his wife. Govt 27 Feb released into house arrest some 100 political prisoners; previously, Committee for Liberation of Political Prisoners 19 Feb reported govt was holding total of 777 political prisoners. Among other controversial bills, National Assembly late-Jan approved Law on Dialogue, Reconciliation, and Peace in Nicaragua, which Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 1 Feb said is incompatible with international standards on truth, justice and reparations. Govt’s international isolation increased; U.S. 30 Jan imposed sanctions on Albanisa oil company (joint venture with Venezuela’s state oil company) while EU diplomats aired possibility of EU sanctions 20 Feb if govt did not cease repression and release political prisoners. Organization of American States (OAS) Expert Group 19 Feb suggested victims could press for trial of President Ortega in another country. Economic conditions continued to deteriorate.

Govt shaken by series of defections of prominent allies, while repression of opposition and press continued, and clashes between security forces and armed groups re-emerged in south. Supreme Court judge 8 Jan resigned from court and ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) party, accusing President Ortega and his wife and VP Rosario Murillo of pushing country to civil war with repression of protests; National Assembly 17 Jan announced another Supreme Court judge had resigned and 15 Jan approved resignation of head of banking industry regulatory body, reportedly for health reasons. National Assembly 28 Jan received social security reform bill that resembles the one which triggered crisis in April 2018. Repression continued with flawed trials of opposition protesters and harassment of press. Permanent Commission on Human Rights announced it had received 40 complaints for unjust detentions or harassment 1-8 Jan. Nicaraguan Association Pro Human Rights 9 Jan raised to 561 and 4,578 the number of total dead and injured in relation to crisis since April 2018. Committee Pro Liberation of Political Prisoners said 767 people in prison for protesting against govt. Security situation worsened in south with clashes between security forces and armed civilians: in Río San Juan department, two civilians reported killed 12 Jan in clash between military and members of criminal organisations; illegal armed group “Los Atabales” claimed responsibility for 17 Jan attack killing four police. Regional and international pressure on govt to ease repression and engage with dialogue continued, including from Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, Mexico, and Catholic Church. Organization of American States (OAS) Permanent Council 11 Jan gathered to assess possibility of applying Democratic Charter, which could see Nicaragua expelled from OAS. U.S. 9 Jan announced it was seeking ways to block Nicaraguan trade access to U.S. market.

President Ortega’s govt displayed increasingly repressive tendencies during month in face of growing international condemnation of govt crackdown on social protests, attacking civil society and media, while political situation remained tense. Govt stripped legal registration of nine NGOs including Nicaraguan Human Rights Centre (CENIDH), and 19 Dec expelled two missions from Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), in moves condemned by international partners. Govt also increased repression on media and attacks on journalists including police 3 Dec seizing equipment from Radio Darío’s offices and on 13 Dec detaining four employees and confiscating computers and documents from newspaper and TV offices; police 15 Dec allegedly beat at least seven journalists demanding information about equipment seizures. In political sphere, opposition Blue and White National Unity (UNAB) late Nov called for resumption of national dialogue, echoed by Episcopal Conference and private sector groups; Ortega accused Church of siding with opposition. Court 17 Dec sentenced three campesino (peasant farmer) leaders and members of opposition to decades in jail for various charges including murder of four police, terrorism and organised crime; first such high-profile members of opposition Civic Alliance to be convicted and sentenced. Govt’s international standing continued to worsen; IACHR 6 Dec concluded “regime of terror” had been installed, while Organization of American States (OAS) 12 Dec expressed concern about ongoing repression and govt’s lack of willingness for dialogue. Luis Almagro 23 Dec backed IACHR experts’ report presented in Washington 21 Dec, alleging govt committed crimes against humanity in repression of protests; 27 Dec announced he would invoke Inter-American Democratic Charter, a process that could end in Nicaragua’s expulsion from OAS. With economic situation continuing to deteriorate, Jesuit Migrant Service 13 Dec reported some 80,000 Nicaraguans fled country since April.

Protests continued in face of ongoing govt repression, arbitrary arrests and secretive trials against opposition activists, eroding support for President Ortega’s govt and stoking tensions with international community. Various organisations gave estimates of political prisoner numbers between 400 and 600; govt 5 Nov recognised only 273 prisoners. Former official of ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) party 19 Nov admitted in media interview that govt’s response to outbreak of protests was to repress them via any available means. Nicaraguan Human Rights Centre (Cenidh) and others reported trials being held without public scrutiny and using dubious testimony. Anti-govt coalition attempted to improve coordination; activists 30 Oct created Blue and White National Unity alliance, while Nicaraguan exiles in Costa Rica created UNE-CR union aimed at increasing international pressure on govt to restore human rights and democracy. However, opposition remained divided over whether to participate in March 2019 regional elections. Tensions between govt and international community continued: President Ortega 9 Nov accused European and U.S. NGOs of training “coup” plotters and being accomplices of failed coup attempt; and cancelled his participation in Ibero-American Summit in Guatemala mid-Nov; U.S. Senate 27 Nov passed Nicaragua Human Rights and Anticorruption Act, now to be discussed in House; Trump same day signed executive order imposing sanctions on VP Murillo and national security adviser Néstor Moncada Lau. Thousands continued to emigrate; Inter-American Commission of Human Rights 1 Nov reported 52,000 Nicaraguans had entered Costa Rica Jan-Sept, though not all fleeing violence. Economic conditions continued to worsen; reported exports down and GDP anticipated to contract further in 2019.

Tensions remained high amid continuing protests against President Ortega’s govt and continued arbitrary and secretive trials against opposition activists. Violence against protesters reportedly resulted in several deaths during month; Amnesty International 18 Oct released report alleging govt used “military-grade weapons” in crackdown against protesters. After govt 29 Sept passed new law aimed at making protests illegal, police detained 30 protesters in Telica, Estelí and Managua (west); a dozen arrested 6-7 Oct and another 38 on 14 Oct. Supreme Court 8 Oct forbade journalists access to public hearings. Supreme Court 12 Oct admitted appeal against unconstitutionality of July’s anti-terrorism law, however detainees continue to be accused of terrorism. Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) 3 Oct warned of possible new phase of govt repression targeting independent journalists; at least 38 incidents involving violence against journalists reported since April. Anti-govt coalition Blue and White National Unity (UNAB) launched 4 Oct, composed of civil society, business, student and political movements; 7 Oct held national strike and met with Organization of American States (OAS) Sec Gen Luis Almagro 18 Oct, handing him their proposals to strengthen democracy and justice in Nicaragua. Govt’s international isolation continued; EU 2 Oct called on govt to cease use of force and free imprisoned peaceful protesters, in call reiterated by FMs from South American inter-governmental trade bloc MERCOSUR 15 Oct. After govt rejected OAS working group visit 17 Oct, working group 19 Oct presented second report at extraordinary session of OAS Permanent Council, during which Almagro aired idea of activating Article 20 of OAS Inter-American Democratic Charter which requires Permanent Council take decisions it deems appropriate for “restoration of democracy” in a member state. Govt 26 Oct did not respond to meeting request by IACHR President Margarette May Macaulay. Govt 1 Oct acknowledged crisis has caused $1.18bn damage to economy, with 350,000 jobs believed lost; International Monetary Fund and World Bank predict around 4% reduction in GDP in 2018.

Although violence declined overall, situation remained unstable as govt crackdown on peaceful protests continued. Opposition Civic Alliance for Justice and Democracy (ACJD) in 1 Sept open letter called on govt to resume dialogue, echoed by Catholic Church; President Ortega claimed dialogue process could not restart under current conditions. ACJD 7 Sept held national strike. Peaceful protests demanding release of political prisoners continued under heavy police presence; govt continued repressive policies with reports of arbitrary detentions, “kidnapping” and unfair trials of opposition supporters. Human rights organisations estimate 309 people remain imprisoned for political activities as of 18 Sept, 136 facing terrorism charges and awaiting trial in Managua. Two protesters died from wounds after months in hospital 18 Sept. Groups of armed civilians shot participants in anti-govt marches in Managua on 2, 16, and 23 Sept, killing one and injuring four, bringing number killed since April to 325 according to Inter-American Commission on Human Rights figures. Media groups reported security forces harassing Nicaraguan and international press. International pressure on govt continued: EU suspended cooperation project with national police, U.S. 5 Sept raised Nicaraguan crisis at UN Security Council, where most members reiterated call for resumption of dialogue; echoed in letter signed by 36 countries 12 Sept. Ortega 10 Sept declared he would be willing to discuss issue directly with U.S. President Tump, who rejected offer 18 Sept. Organization of American States (OAS) Permanent Council 12 Sept issued resolution calling for resumption of dialogue and agreement on electoral timetable; govt 17 Sept demanded OAS Sec Gen Almagro’s resignation. Central American Integration System (SICA) 18 Sept declared it was working with govt to restore dialogue. Economic impact of crisis continued; financial system reported to have lost $974.8mn since April, Nicaraguan Foundation for Economic and Social Development 18 Sept estimated 143,000 Nicaraguans had fallen into poverty since April and GDP would contract by 2-4%.

Protestors 15 Aug marched in capital Managua demanding release of hundreds of people arrested in crackdown on anti-govt protests since April; over 400 people reported to have been killed during suppression of protests, which govt continued to label as “coup” attempts. Organization of American States 2 Aug approved creation of working group on Nicaragua; govt 15 Aug labelled working group as “interventionist”, said it was “not welcome”. UN Human Rights Commission (HRC) 29 Aug issued report condemning govt for widespread human rights violations. Govt rejected report, accusing UN of being an “instrument of a policy of death, terror, lie and infamy”, and on 31 Aug expelled HRC team. Former VP and erstwhile Ortega ally Sergio Ramírez 18 Aug criticised govt response to protests and said levels of violence are worse than during Sandinista Revolution. Nicaraguan Association for Human Rights 6 Aug announced temporary closure of its Managua office following death threats and harassment by armed men. Thousands demonstrated across country in support of doctors 24 Aug after Medical Association 22 Aug denounced govt’s sacking of 240 of its members in apparent retaliation for supporting protests. Thousands continue to flee unrest with neighbouring Costa Rica confirming 23,000 Nicaraguans applied for asylum since June; thousands of Costa Ricans 25 Aug marched in support of Nicaraguan migrants in capital San José after anti-immigrant protests in city turned violent 18 Aug. Parliament 14 Aug approved 9.2% reduction of national budget due to economic impact of anti-govt unrest and govt repression, steepest cut in past decade.

Protests against President Ortega’s govt continued into fourth month, with paramilitary and police forces attempting to subdue protest strongholds and restore govt control; reported death toll since April now exceeds 350 with pro-govt forces also targeting mediating clergy. Clashes between protesters and troops in towns of Diriamba (west), Jinotepe (west) and Matagalpa (north) left 38 reported dead 8 July, deadliest day since protests began in April. Protesters held nationwide strikes 13 July; police siege of church near main National Autonomous University of Nicaragua (UNAN) in capital Managua where protesters took refuge ended 14 July after assault by police and paramilitary which left two dead; paramilitary groups subsequently occupied UNAN. Pro-Ortega groups 15 July killed ten protesters in anti-govt stronghold Masaya (west); retook Monimbó neighbourhood 17 July in clashes that left four dead. Police and paramilitaries 23 July attacked protesters’ barricades in Jinotega (north), killing three. NGO Nicaraguan Pro-Human Rights Association claimed 750 protesters abducted by paramilitary forces 22-23 July. In Diriamba, pro-govt armed militia 9 July entered church and attacked bishops who had been mediating dialogue between govt and protesters; Bishop’s Conference suspended working groups set up to mediate. Clerics reported paramilitary groups attacked or looted at least ten churches during month. Ortega 19 July used anniversary of Sandinista revolution to attack Catholic Church as allies of coup plotters. Rival pro- and anti-govt demonstrations in Managua 28 July took place with no reported violence. Govt faced increasing international isolation and criticism: U.S. 5 July announced sanctions against three Ortega allies; UN Sec-Gen Guterres 16 July said govt allies used “unacceptable” force; UN human rights office 17 July stated violence “overwhelmingly perpetrated” by govt and govt-allied groups, demanded access to prisons. Ortega 23 July refused calls for early elections and blamed U.S. and private sector “interventionism” for violence.