CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Security forces continued targeting drug-trafficking organisations, authorities extradited former head of police, and setting-up of international anti-corruption body proceeded at slow pace. Authorities continued crackdown on criminal organisations. In Colón department (north east), police 15 May arrested Herlinda Bobadilla, leader of Montes Bobadilla trafficking clan, after U.S. authorities offered $15 mn reward for information leading to her and her sons’ arrest; in shootout, police killed Bobadilla’s son, Tito Montes Bobadilla, arrested three. In La Ceiba coastal town, police same day arrested Nicaraguan drug trafficker Omar Zamora Mayorga, who is wanted by U.S. Operations continued in Colón department to arrest those involved in assault and killing of three police officers in late April; police chief Gustavo Sánchez 4 May announced curfew’s extension for another 90 days. As of 2 May, police had eradicated 550,000 coca crops in 2022, surpassing 525,125 eradicated during 2021; forced eradication in country is aimed at curbing activities of criminal groups, who largely control coca production. Authorities 10 May extradited former head of National Police Juan Carlos Bonilla to U.S. on drug trafficking and weapons charges; Former President Juan Orlando Hernández same day pleaded not guilty to drug and weapons charges in federal court in U.S. Honduran court 19 May approved extradition to U.S. of MS-13 leader Tokiro Rodas Ramírez, alias “Perverso”. UN mission 9-13 May visited capital Tegucigalpa to assess possibility of creating International Commission Against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras; commission met with representatives from judiciary, legislature, executive and civil society, including country’s president, Xiomara Castro. President Castro 11 May said she would not attend Americas Summit planned 6-10 June unless all countries were invited.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Steps to tackle endemic corruption continued apace, former President Juan Orlando Hernández’s formally extradited to U.S., and transport workers launched one-day strike. Authorities 21 April extradited former President Hernández to U.S. on drug-trafficking and weapons charges after Constitutional Chamber of Supreme Court 6 April rejected defence appeal, and 15 magistrates of Supreme Court 12 April unanimously authorised extradition. Hernández 22 April appeared for first time before U.S. judge, who read charges against him. Judge 8 April also authorised U.S. extradition request of former National Police Head Juan Carlos “El Tigre” Bonilla, accused of overseeing Hernández’s drug-trafficking operations; Bonilla’s defence 11 April appealed decision, but Supreme Court 20 April confirmed extradition. National Defence Minister José Manuel Zelaya 3 April confirmed National Interinstitutional Security Force’s participation in arresting more than 12 Hondurans wanted in extradition by U.S. on drug-trafficking charges; Security Minister 6 April commented “surgical job” needed for fighting organised crime and corruption. UN 27 April said technical evaluation mission to assess possible establishment of International Anti-Corruption Commission due to arrive in Honduras 9 May. Meanwhile, transportation carriers 7 April launched nine-hour strike blocking main traffic avenues to protest rising fuel prices and demand state subsidies; President Castro immediately rejected demand to meet protestors because “stopping circulation is an illegal act punishable by law and represents a boycott of my government”. Castro and transport union 12 April signed agreement, including fixing tariffs and subsidies. Some transport representatives 19 April briefly blocked streets in capital Tegucigalpa, protesting against sanctions for increased prices. Administrators of national system of aqueducts and sewers 13 April warned Tegucigalpa faces humanitarian crisis due to water scarcity; UN World Food Programme 19 April sounded alarm about country’s worsening food security. Congress 20 April unanimously repealed tax-free Zones for Employment and Economic Development (ZEDEs), said they undermine national sovereignty. Laura Dogu 12 April became first U.S. ambassador to Honduras since 2017. President Castro 25 April announced state of emergency in Colón department (north) after three unknown men previous day reportedly killed three police officers.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Authorities took several steps to address endemic corruption, including approval of request to extradite former President Juan Orlando Hernández to U.S. National Congress 1 March approved repeal of 2013 “Law of Secrets”, which required classification of information on use of govt funds on grounds that, if disclosed, information could hinder country’s defence and national security. Congress 8 March appointed country’s first Anti-Corruption Committee; 16 March along with Anti-Corruption Committee agreed on institutional cooperation mechanism to increase transparency. Meanwhile, National Police 9 March arrested its former director, Juan Carlos “El Tigre”, who is wanted by U.S. court on drug-trafficking and weapons charges. Judge 16 March also approved U.S. request to extradite former President Hernández; defence next day said it would appeal decision; Supreme Court 28 March rejected demand, approved U.S. extradition request. Tribunal 17 March found former first lady, Rosa Elena Bonilla, guilty of fraud and embezzlement for second time, following trial repeat which had been requested in July 2020. Other moves however pointed to possible selective justice efforts as judiciary began implementing Feb amnesty law which paved way for dropping corruption charges against govt officials of Mel Zelaya administration. Meanwhile, President Xiomara Castro 1 March announced creation of penitentiary police and progressive public security demilitarisation; also said she would grant pardon to many inmates to reduce prisons’ overcrowding, although she has yet to specify who would benefit from relaxation measures. In unusual targeting of religious leaders, Rev José Enrique Vásquez was found dead 2 March in Morazán municipality (north), shot in head and chest; police 16-17 March detained three suspects for alleged role in killing. 

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Agreement between factions of ruling party Libre ended split within assembly, but Luis Redondo’s leadership in Congress continued to be questioned; U.S. requested extradition of former President Juan Orlando Hernández. Following Jan dispute over election of National Congress head, Libre Party 7 Feb signed agreement with dissident deputies supporting Libre legislator Jorge Cálix, recognising instead Luis Redondo from Honduras’ Saviour Party (PSH) as National Congress head; agreed that 18 lawmakers who they said in late Jan would be expelled from party would be reinstated. Redondo next day presided first plenary with all 128 members; while deputies, mainly from opposition National Party, insisted vote for National Congress Head should be repeated, Libre and PSH rejected demand. U.S. 14 Feb requested former President Hernández be extradited on drug-trafficking and related weapon charges; 7 Feb said Hernández’s U.S. visa had been revoked and that he had been included in Engel List of corrupt Central American actors since 1 July 2021. Hernández 15 Feb said he would surrender voluntarily; authorities however same day arrested him and Hernández next day appeared before judge who confirmed temporary detention; judge following case 21 Feb admitted defence’s request to turn detention into house arrest; Supreme Court 24 Feb however rejected house arrest’s request. Trujillo local court 9 Feb found six Guapinol (east) environmental activists arrested in 2019 guilty of aggravated damages on a private mining company and illegal detention of their security chief; NGO Amnesty International and UN special rapporteur on human rights defenders same day strongly condemned ruling; Supreme Court 10 Feb overruled decision and ordered activists’ release. Congress 2 Feb passed amnesty law for state employees of Mel Zelaya’s administration who faced politically motivated judicial prosecution; Zelaya is President Castro’s husband and was deposed in coup d’état in 2009; critics noted amnesty also covered those accused of embezzlement. Castro 17 Feb asked UN to set up International Commission against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras to help national authorities prosecute corrupt practices.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

President-elect Castro faced her first political test as split within her party triggered dispute over election of National Congress head; deadly violence against activists and mass migration continued. Tensions ran high during election of president of National Congress. In rejection of pre-election agreement signed in Oct 2021 between Libre Party and Honduras’ Saviour Party (PSH), some 20 Libre deputies, with support of National and Liberal parties, 21 Jan refused to appoint Luis Redondo from PSH as temporary head of Congress and instead appointed dissident Libre legislator Jorge Cálix, prompting brawl in Congress; Castro 21 Jan called it “treason”, and Libre same day expelled 18 lawmakers (some deputies later rejected expulsion, deeming it not in line with party statute). Libre followers same day occupied Congress entrance to protest. Two parallel Congress sessions held 23 Jan, one confirming Cálix, the other appointing Redondo. Castro 25 Jan offered Cálix to join her cabinet as coordinator, Cálix had yet to respond by end of the month. Amid tensions, Castro sworn in 27 Jan by judge, instead of head of Congress; Spain’s King Felipe VI and U.S. VP Kamala Harris, along with others, attended ceremony. Outgoing President Hernandez sworn in 27 Jan as member of Guatemala-based Central American Parliament, giving him immunity from prosecution during four-year tenure. Violence against social activists continued. Notably, unknown attackers 9 Jan killed Lenca community indigenous environmentalist and social leader Pablo Hernández in Lempira department, west of capital Tegucigalpa, triggering U.S. and EU condemnation; 10 Jan killed transgender activist Thalía Rodríguez in Tegucigalpa. Meanwhile, Guatemalan authorities 15 Jan dismantled caravan of 800 people composed mostly of Hondurans and Nicaraguans who had same day left Honduras’ San Pedro Sula city.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Following months of heightened political tensions, country headed toward peaceful transfer of power as President Hernández recognised victory of outsider presidential candidate Xiomara Castro. Outgoing President Hernández 1 Dec congratulated left-wing Liberty and Refoundation (LIBRE) party candidate Xiomara Castro on winning 28 Nov presidential election and called for “pacific and democratic transition of power”; Castro, first successful presidential candidate outside two traditional parties, due to become first female president in country’s history after taking office 27 Jan. U.S. VP Kamala Harris 10 Dec congratulated Castro on “historic victory”, expressed willingness “to increase economic opportunities, combat corruption, and deepen the partnership between the U.S. and Honduras”. National Electoral Council (NEC) 20 Dec released final presidential results, declaring Castro winner with 51.12% of votes, 14 points ahead of ruling National Party candidate Nasry Asfura at 36.93%; said turnout reached 68.58%. Meanwhile, controversy emerged over legislative elections also held 28 Nov. Candidates from various parties, particularly from Castro’s running mate Honduras’ Saviour Party, early Dec filed multiple complaints alleging fraud favouring candidates from both National Party and Liberal Party. NEC 7 Dec announced recount of almost 5,000 ballot boxes for legislative and municipal elections following at least 281 appeals; 28 Dec announced final results, with LIBRE winning 50 seats, National Party 44, Liberal Party 22, and Honduras’ Saviour Party ten. U.S. 2 Dec said Honduras, among other countries, was not invited to virtual summit for democracy to be held 9-10 Dec, citing “very disturbing activities” undermining democracy. Violence against politicians, political activists or civil society leaders persisted after 28 Nov votes. Notably, unidentified assailants 5 Dec shot and killed local leader of LIBRE party in Santa Cruz municipality, Lempira department. Armed individuals 8 Dec shot dead justice official in La Unión municipality, Olancho department, and next day killed lawyer in Danlí municipality, El Paraíso department.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Despite deadly violence against local politicians in lead-up to polls, win of opposition presidential candidate Xiomara Castro accepted peacefully by month’s end. Following 28 Nov general elections, electoral authorities 30 Nov presented preliminary results, giving opposition candidate Castro 20-point lead in presidential race with 53% of votes against 34% for ruling National Party candidate Nasry Asfura. Voter turnout high at 68%. Liberal Party candidate Yani Rosenthal, as well as private sector leaders, 29 Nov recognised Castro’s victory, and National Party next day acknowledged defeat. Legislative elections result however still unclear by month’s end. First part of Nov saw worrying deadly attacks dominate electoral campaign. In Francisco Morazán department (centre), unidentified assailants overnight 5-6 Nov shot and killed local politician and member of ruling National Party of Honduras (PNH) Renán Godoy Martín in Talanga municipality, and 13 Nov killed San Juan de Flores’ mayor and opposition Liberal Party of Honduras (PLH) official Francisco Gaitán Agüero. In neighbouring La Paz department, unidentified assailants 11 Nov killed Óscar Moya, local PLH official and municipal councillor in Santiago de Puringla. In Santa Bárbara department (north), gunmen 13 Nov killed local opposition Liberty and Re-Foundation (LIBRE) official Elvir Casaña in San Luis city. Internationally, authorities 4 Nov detained opposition presidential candidate Santos Rodríguez Orellana in capital Tegucigalpa on money-laundering charges. International partners reiterated calls for peaceful elections. Head of EU Electoral Observation Mission, Željana Zovko, 1 Nov urged politicians to end campaign of “fear and polarisation”, while UN Office in Honduras 9 Nov called on all candidates “to desist from any action that violates human rights”. UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 23 Nov expressed “deep concern” over political violence, said her office had recorded 63 cases including 29 killings since Sept 2020.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

In possible game-changing move ahead of 28 Nov general elections, top opposition parties formed alliance. Opposition parties Liberty and Refoundation (Libre) and Salvador de Honduras 13 Oct formed alliance and rallied behind Libre’s Xiomara Castro as presidential candidate, with view to offering her stronger platform against ruling party candidate Nasry Asfura. CID-Gallup poll 8 Oct had previously indicated Asfura leading race with 21% voting intention, followed by Castro and Salvador de Honduras’ candidate Salvador Nasralla with 18% each. Congress 7 Oct approved reforms to Penal Code and anti-money-laundering law, which among other changes, identify civil society organisations investigating corruption as “Politically Exposed People” – those who are more vulnerable to being involved in bribery and corruption by virtue of their position – and expand definition of crime of usurpation, which could lead to criminalisation of protests. Critics, including head of public ministry’s anti-corruption prosecution office, same day argued changes part of effort to protect members of Congress from corruption investigations. Public ministry 18 Oct detained ruling National Party of Honduras mayor of Talanga town, Roosevelt Eduardo Aviléz López, and some of his family members, on money-laundering charges.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Political tensions ran high ahead of general elections scheduled for Nov, and deportation of Honduran migrants from Mexico and U.S. continued. Violence against politicians continued. Unidentified gunman 6 Sept shot and injured mayoral candidate for opposition Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) in San Luis municipality, Santa Bárbara department. Unidentified gunmen 21 Sept reportedly kidnapped and later killed ruling National Party of Honduras official and former municipal councillor of San Luis municipality, Comayagua department. CID-Gallup opinion poll which surveyed 1,288 people 10 Sept found ruling-party presidential candidate, Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry Asfura, holds narrow lead with 21% voting intentions, followed by LIBRE candidate Xiomara Castro, and other prominent opposition candidate Salvador Nasralla, both at 18%; absent procedural law that lays out clear mechanisms to settle electoral disputes and defines legal jurisdictions, tight race could trigger post-electoral crisis. Meanwhile, upward trend in deportations of Honduran nationals from Mexico and U.S. continued. Consular and Migration Observatory of Honduras 7 Sept said 36,833 Hondurans had been deported back to their country between 1 Jan and 31 Aug – compared to 28,182 during same period last year.

Latin America & Caribbean

Honduras

Authorities expanded tax-free zones despite opposition and launched major anti-gang operation. Congress 13 Aug approved law that allows tax-free Zones for Employment and Economic Development (ZEDEs) to sign agreements with municipalities, 126 of whom have rejected move so far. Combined police and military force 13 Aug launched operation against criminal gangs in at least 12 cities; public ministry same day claimed operation was successful, resulting in 138 people detained, 35 guns and $160,000 seized. Authorities 27 Aug arrested Jerry Hynds, mayor of Caribbean island Roatán, and three other men on drug trafficking charges. Over 75 NGOs 18 Aug called on Supreme Court to order release of eight environmental activists who have been detained for two years; request comes after Public Ministry in June requested extension of their provisional detention, which was granted 26 Aug for another six months. National Electoral Council 4 Aug approved budget of HNL1,000mn ($42mn) for Nov general elections, next day announced approval of digital results transmission system aimed at considerably speeding up counting of votes.

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