Rifts continued to deepen between President Bolsonaro and top court. Supreme Court 4 Aug opened investigation over President Bolsonaro’s unsupported claims that electronic voting system is riddled with fraud; Bolsonaro next day decried move as unconstitutional. Armed forces 10 Aug staged rare military parade with combat vehicles in streets of federal capital Brasília, reportedly in response to Bolsonaro’s order few days earlier; move seen by media commentators and opposition as show of force as Congress debated Bolsonaro’s proposal to revive use of paper ballots in next year’s general election; Lower House hours later voted down proposal. In WhatsApp message, Bolsonaro 14 Aug asked group of followers to take to the streets on 7 Sept to support “quite likely and necessary counter-coup” against judiciary. Bolsonaro 20 Aug asked Senate to impeach Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing cases which could affect govt; Congress 25 Aug rejected request.

Amid preparations for 2022 elections, tensions between armed forces and Congress resurfaced and President Bolsonaro claimed electronic voting allows fraud. Defence minister, retired Gen. Walter Braga Netto, 7 July released statement alongside army, navy and air force commanders condemning Senator Omar Aziz’s speech in which he denounced “rotten side of the military” involved in corruption, and saying he would not accept such attacks; Aziz chairs parliamentary commission investigating Bolsonaro’s handling of coronavirus pandemic. Air force commander Carlos Almeida Baptista 9 July reiterated condemnation of Aziz but denied any coup threat, saying “armed men do not make threats”. Bolsonaro 7 July said 2022 elections could be at risk if Congress does not pass electoral reforms ensuring all ballots are printed, claiming past use of electronic voting system had been marred by fraud; 10 July suggested Luís Roberto Barroso, Supreme Court judge and Supreme Electoral Court president, had personal interest in preventing electoral transparency. Newspaper Estado de São Paulo 22 July alleged Braga Netto had sent message to Arthur Lira, head of lower house of Congress, saying 2022 elections would only be held if electoral reform is approved; Braga Netto denied claim.

Tensions ran high over management of COVID-19 pandemic as country surpassed 500,000 deaths. President Bolsonaro 9 June said COVID-19 vaccines “are still in an experimental phase”, 17 June alleged infection produces stronger immunity than vaccination, and 24 June questioned efficacy of Brazil’s most common vaccine Coronavax. Thousands 19 June protested in all 26 states and capital Brasilia against Bolsonaro’s COVID-19 policies, as country same day reached half a million deaths. Health ministry’s employee Luís Ricardo Fernandes 25 June testified before Senate parliamentary commission investigating govt’s handling of COVID-19 pandemic, denounced irregularities in purchase of Indian vaccine Covaxin. Commission’s head Senator Omar Aziz late June reported mounting evidence that govt had committed “crimes against life”. Several opposition parties 30 June submitted “super impeachment request” against Bolsonaro to parliament’s lower house, accusing him of committing over 20 crimes in COVID-19 management; protests same day erupted in several cities including Rio de Janeiro, Brasilia, Recife and Sao Paulo. Opposition senator 28 June filed formal criminal complaint at Supreme Court against Bolsonaro for alleged irregularities in Covaxin deal. Superior Military Court’s President 17 June warned opposition’s attacks against president could result in “actions outside the Constitution”, paving way for military courts to try civilians.

Tensions ran high between President Bolsonaro on one hand, and Congress, state governors and military on the other. Current Health Minister Marcelo Queiroga and three of his predecessors throughout month testified before Senate’s parliamentary commission investigating federal govt’s handling of COVID-19 pandemic, which has resulted in over 450,000 deaths in country since early 2020. Notably, former Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta 4 May said that under his tenure he had “systematically” urged Bolsonaro to change his stance on pandemic, while former Health Minister Nelson Teich next day said he had resigned from his ministerial position over Bolsonaro’s pressure to widely use malaria drug hydroxychloroquine as COVID-19 treatment. Bolsonaro 5 May reiterated call on governors not to implement social distancing measures, said he will issue decree to “secure right of freedom of movement”. Thousands of govt supporters gathered in federal capital Brasília 15 May and country’s second most populous city Rio de Janeiro 23 May. Former health minister under Bolsonaro and lead witness on Senate’s parliamentary commission, Gen Eduardo Pazuello, appeared at 23 May protest, breaking military rules against active duty officers’ political involvement and furthering tensions between president and Army High Command. Bolsonaro 27 May threatened once again military action against any state govts announcing new COVID-19 related lockdowns. Tens of thousands 29 May protested across country against govt’s COVID-19 response, denouncing “dictatorship” and demanding Bolsonaro’s impeachment; police threw tear gas and shot rubber bullets at protesters in north-eastern city of Recife. Meanwhile, police raid in Rio de Janeiro’s Jacarezinho neighbourhood 6 May left 28 dead including one police officer; Rio de Janeiro’s Prosecutor’s Office 11 May announced creation of task force to investigate incident, including accusations that police carried out arbitrary killings and tampered with crime scene.

Amid spiralling COVID-19 infection rates, series of Supreme Court rulings posed challenge to President Bolsonaro’s rule, notably his handling of pandemic. Supreme Court 14 April ordered Senate probe into govt’s “actions and omissions” in management of COVID-19 pandemic, including whether “genocide” was committed against indigenous communities in Amazon rainforest, who have been ravaged by P1 variant; 18-member commission, which opened probe 27 April, could recommend impeachment of Bolsonaro or even criminal proceedings against him. Supreme Court 8 April also ruled that mayors and governors may ban holding of in-person religious services as means to contain COVID-19; subsequently, Bolsonaro 23 April said army could intervene to “re-establish Article 5 of the Constitution” – which guarantees freedom of movement and religion – if lockdown measures he opposes led to chaos. Newly-appointed Justice Minister Anderson Torres 6 April replaced heads of federal police and federal highway patrol with Bolsonaro-backed candidates; move could help Bolsonaro secure more direct influence over law enforcement. In appeal ruling, Supreme Court 15 April upheld its March ruling annulling corruption convictions against former President Lula, permanently clearing way for Lula to stand for re-election in 2022.

Political tensions peaked as rifts deepened between President Bolsonaro and military, while COVID-19 pandemic spiralled out of control. Bolsonaro 29 March dismissed six cabinet members, including Defence Minister Fernando Azevedo e Silva and FM Ernesto Araújo; move followed growing rift between Bolsonaro and military on one hand, and lawmakers’ growing discontent over Araújo’s COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy, on the other. Commanders of Army, Navy and Air Force next day jointly resigned in protest. Meanwhile, spiralling COVID-19 infection rates – due partly to spread of COVID-19 P1 variant – overwhelmed hospitals across country; death toll 24 March reached milestone of 300,000 since outbreak of pandemic, and record 3,780 daily fatalities reported on 30 March. Bolsonaro 15 March appointed new health minister, fourth in a year, and 21 March labelled state governors and mayors “tyrants” for imposing lockdowns. Several Latin American countries strengthened travel restrictions to and from Brazil during month. Supreme Court 8 March annulled two corruption convictions against former President Lula on grounds that court did not have proper jurisdiction in case, clearing him to stand for re-election in 2022 general election; 23 March ruled that Judge Sergio Moro who presided over past proceedings was biased and acted in collusion with prosecutors.

President Bolsonaro strengthened his popularity and hold on power despite world’s second worst COVID-19 outbreak. Although COVID-19 pandemic reached milestones of 3mn reported infections and 100,000 deaths, most major cities continued to relax confinement measures as infection rate started to slow in most states, with only Goiás and Tocantins states reporting rising infection rate. Datafolha institute’s public opinion poll, which surveyed 2,065 people, 13 Aug showed Bolsonaro’s approval rating jump from 32% in June to 37%, with analysts attributing rise to emergency cash transfer program to people in need during pandemic. Piauí magazine 5 Aug reported that Bolsonaro had threatened to send troops to substitute Supreme Court judges in May after Judge Celso de Mello considered request to seize phones of Bolsonaro and his son Carlos as part of probe against group of presidential advisers suspected of fostering and spreading fake news; neither president nor Supreme Court commented on media report. Bolsonaro’s bid to build new political alliances with “Big Center” (Centrão) parties to strengthen govt support in Congress and avoid possible impeachment moved forward with 12 Aug appointment of center-right Progressive Party member, MP Ricardo Barros, as govt’s chief whip in Congress. In wake of increasing death toll from police operations to combat crime in poor communities of Rio de Janeiro, which led to 21-year high in police killings last year (1,814 dead) and further rises early this year, Supreme Court 18 Aug extended restrictions on police raids in Rio, allowing them only in case of extreme necessity and prohibiting use of helicopters in operations.

Country remained second worst-affected by COVID-19 globally, while tensions ran high between President Bolsonaro’s govt and military, on one hand, and Supreme Court, on the other. Supreme Court Judge Gilmar Mendes 11 July said Bolsonaro’s response to COVID-19 pandemic amounted to “genocide”, and military could be seen as complicit. In response, Defence Minister Fernando Azevedo 14 July sent formal complaint against Judge Mendes to Federal Prosecution Office, accusing him of violating National Security Law, remnant of military regime. Brazil, country second worst affected by coronavirus globally, with more than 2mn active cases and 85,000 deaths; states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná (south) reported highest growth in number of cases in July; Bolsonaro 7 July tested positive. São Paulo Police Internal Affairs Department and Rio de Janeiro Institute of Public Safety 14 July reported record number of police killings in both cities, with 741 people killed by police in Rio de Janeiro and 442 others in São Paulo between Jan and May.

Amid COVID-19 spread and controversy over govt’s management of pandemic, political polarisation deepened as Supreme Court continued moves toward investigations of close allies of President Bolsonaro, and president’s supporters took to street to protest against legal proceedings. Following rise of tensions between Bolsonaro and Supreme Court after latter in recent months launched multiple investigations against close allies of president, including two of his sons, president’s supporters 13-14 June protested in Brasília, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, launching fireworks on Supreme Court building in capital Brasília; then Education Minister Abraham Weintraub who attended demonstration in Brasilia, said Supreme Court judges should be arrested; Weintraub resigned 18 June and left for U.S. after Supreme Court announced investigations against him over accusations of libel and disinformation. Amid Bolsonaro’s supporters’ call for military to close Supreme Court, Secretary of Govt General Luiz Eduardo Ramos 12 June said military would not intervene. 70 retired army officers next day published letter accusing Supreme Court of making politically-motivated decisions. Following Supreme Court order, authorities 15 June arrested pro-Bolsonaro protest leader Sara Giromini over accusations of raising funds for anti-democratic actions that could threaten national security. Amid COVID-19 spread, power struggle continued between Bolsonaro on one hand, and mayors and governors on the other after Supreme Court in April allowed local authorities to impose isolation measures amid COVID-19 pandemic; São Paulo 19 June and Rio de Janeiro next day extended quarantine until early July. Small-scale demonstrations took place 28 June in several cities against Bolsonaro’s handling of COVID-19 crisis, which reached 1mn reported active cases and 50,000 deaths 19 June.

Victory of far-right former army officer Jair Bolsonaro in presidential election 28 Oct raised widespread concerns over his past statements in support of authoritarianism, repression, state violence and economic nationalism; and for political reverberations of his win across region. During campaign dominated by issues of rising violent crime and political corruption, Bolsonaro praised Brazil’s 1964-1985 dictatorship, said he would give police “carte blanche” to kill suspects in anti-crime drive, and threatened “clean up” of political rivals, saying leftist “outlaws will be banished from our homeland”; victory also raised concerns over respect for rights of LGBT people, women and indigenous groups.  Bolsonaro 29 Oct pledged to relax gun control and cut govt advertising funds for “lying” media outlets.