CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations ("standbys") to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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Democratic Republic of Congo
Replacing Tanzania, new South African mediator Nqakula visited President Nkurunziza and FNL rebel representatives in Bujumbura early May. Stalled government- FNL talks began in Dar es Salaam 29 May. But overall political situation in country deteriorated. Ruling CNDD-FDD party faced growing accusations of corruption and authoritarianism. Freedom of expression an issue as former MP/peace activist Terence Nahimana, who left FNL political wing in 1990, arrested for “compromising state security” after questioning government’s tactics delaying peace negotiations.
3,000 marched in Bangui against increasing violence in northwest and bad governance.
Despite rebel threats of violence, peaceful presidential elections held 3 May. President Déby reelected with 65% of vote; opposition boycotted, claiming poll rigged. Mid-month Chad accused Sudan of organising new alliance of Chadian rebels to oust Déby, called on international community to intervene. Security situation in east dire as armed raiders from Darfur, including Janjaweed militias, forced thousands to flee and threatened aid workers.
Twin processes of ex-rebel disarmament and voter identification underway in preparation for October elections. Disarmament pre-regroupment phase will see combatants return to barracks. Government offices began 1- week trial phase to identify estimated 3 million Ivorians without identity papers.
Tensions increased substantially in Kinshasa as a third of 33 presidential candidates called for new electoral commission head and talks to renegotiate 30 July election date. Government cracked down on opposition as forces loyal to President Kabila harassed other candidates, and restrictions placed on 3 radio stations for inflammatory broadcasts. 10,000 Kabila supporters marched in Kinshasa 31 May against opposition call for negotiations. 52 rebels, 6 government soldiers, 1 UN peacekeeper killed in clashes in Ituri, where joint DRC- MONUC operation continued to flush out illegal armed groups responsible for near-daily attacks. FDLR rebels attacked 2 villages and army base in North Kivu. In Katanga, Mai Mai warlord Gedeon Kyungu and 350 fighters surrendered to take part in DDR program.
Major donor EU announced suspension of direct funding to pressure government to practice good governance and accountability.
Alliance for Freedom and Democracy created 22 May in Netherlands, including diaspora members of 5 different groups united by opposition to government. Latest in series of unexplained explosions killed 4 in Addis Ababa 12 May and injured 42 in Jijiga 29 May. Government nominated interim city council to run Addis Ababa after April failure by CUD opposition to fill positions to run administration, prompting CUD parliament walkout. Treason and genocide trial for 111 opposition leaders continued.
UN extended UNMEE peacekeeping mandate for 4 months 31 May but nearly halved number of authorised troops, after Boundary Commission talks 18-19 May in London failed to break deadlock. Ethiopia dropped longstanding precondition of further negotiation before border demarcation can start, demanding instead Eritrea withdraw militias from Temporary Security Zone.
President Conté reshuffled cabinet, appointing loyal allies, and cancelled planned medical trip to Switzerland. Social unrest continued as government’s announcement of petrol price hike led unions to call for general strike early June.
Demonstration by armed men, many ex-combatants, in Ganta forced inhabitants to flee, after rumours ethnic Mandingo refugees would return to Nimba county and reclaim lands by force. UNMIL forces intervened to stem further unrest. Government reported improvement in fiscal management as part of crackdown on corruption. ECOWAS called for UN to lift sanctions on diamonds and timber.
Tuareg rebels occupied 2 military bases in north eastern town of Kidal 23 May, and reportedly stole military equipment before retreating. Government forces retook control but growing tensions in town prompted fears of more violence.
Affirmation of constitutional process as President Obasanjo announced would step down in 2007 after senate rejected constitutional amendment to allow controversial third term. Obasanjo later reshuffled senior security staff. Shell refused to pay $1.5 billion environmental damages to Ijaw community in Niger Delta, as ordered by court in February, pending appeal. Violence continued in region, with alleged militants killing U.S. oil worker and 6 police in separate incidents, as Ijaw rebel groups threatened joint attacks.
Government published list of 171 genocide suspects said to be abroad. Despite cool relations with Uganda, President Kagame attended Museveni’s presidential inauguration. 800 of 20,000 Rwandans, who feared local gacaca courts, returned after Burundi refused asylum.
Transfer of former Liberian President Taylor to The Hague on hold as no country willing to house him if convicted. Justice George Gelaga King from Sierra Leone elected to succeed Justice Fernando as president of Special Court. Presidential candidates began to prepare for 2007 elections; police announced impartiality.
Heavy fighting between Islamic Courts militia and U.S.-backed Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism spread throughout Mogadishu, after collapse of temporary ceasefire that ended 7-14 May clashes; over 200 killed in month. Alliance accused Courts of links to al- Qaeda, while Courts accused U.S. of funnelling cash to warlords. PM Gedi gave 3 cabinet ministers (also Alliance members in Mogadishu) until early June to come to Baidoa or face dismissal, while cabinet supported inviting Ugandan and Sudanese peacekeepers to improve security. UN Security Council monitoring group reported weapons inflow from increasing number of states, including Djibouti, Eritrea, Italy and Saudi Arabia; all denied violating embargo.
Somaliland celebrated fifteenth anniversary of self-declared independence from Somalia 18 May. President Royale held talks with AU Commission Chairman Konare on request for AU admission; visited Ethiopia to discuss growing bilateral ties. Somali transitional parliament condemned Ethiopian trade liaison office in Hargeysa. In contentious move, government extended term of council elders (upper house) to 2010 with endorsement of constitutional court, bypassing legislature. 11 killed in fighting between rival subclans in Buhoodhle district.
Under intense international pressure, government and largest SLA rebel faction led by Minawi signed Darfur Peace Agreement 5 May in Abuja. Plan calls for creation of temporary regional authority with rebel participation, Janjaweed disarmament, incorporation of rebels into army and Sudanese government funds for reconstruction and compensation. But SLA faction headed by Abdel Wahid and smaller JEM rebel group refused to sign, despite AU urging to do so by 31 May or face possible sanctions. UN Security Council unanimously passed 16 May resolution under Chapter VII supporting peace plan and created team to assess transfer of AU mission to UN, despite Khartoum’s ongoing opposition to UN force. Violent demonstrations by refugees protesting agreement and calling for international protection: AU interpreter killed during UN humanitarian chief Egeland visit to Kalma camp, South Darfur. Rebels accused government of attacking villages in South Darfur, killing dozens. In southeastern state Jonglei, several killed in clashes between SPLA and armed civilians of Lou Nuer community over forced disarmament.
LRA announced ready for talks during meetings with southern Sudanese SPLM, presenting real possibility for breakthrough. But President Museveni at odds with International Criminal Court, after giving LRA leader Kony until August to end 20-year insurgency and saying would guarantee safety. Senior U.S. diplomat said new Bush administration priority to “get rid” of LRA by end 2006. Museveni and parliament officially took office mid-month after February election, as controversial treason trial for opposition leader and presidential runner-up Besigye continued.
Opposition continued to rally support as government maintained crackdown on protests. Decisive win by main faction of opposition MDC led by Tsvangirai in 21 May Harare by-election over ruling ZANU-PF and smaller MDC faction. Police banned rallies marking first anniversary of Operation Murambatsvina throughout country, arrested 100. Leaked draft of suspected UN initiative on Mugabe succession failed to have impact; government blocked UNSG Annan’s proposed July trip to Harare. Economic crisis deepened as inflation topped 1000%.
Month saw worst violence since 2001, while in Kabul new parliament asserted its authority. 350 insurgents, civilians and security personnel killed across southern provinces. Resurgent Taliban used large units, reportedly teaming up with drug traffickers and other anti-government elements, to attack coalition troops and Afghan security forces. U.S. military-truck accident in Kabul 29 May sparked mass anti-U.S. riots, killing 8. UK began deployment of 3,500 troops as part of NATO-led peacekeeping expansion in south and formally assumed command from U.S.-led troops in Helmand 1 May. 20 members of new cabinet, including ministers of defence, foreign affairs, interior and finance, sworn in 2 May after approved by parliament; 5 positions remain to be filled. Parliament rejected renomination of conservative head of Supreme Court, seen as major impediment to judicial reform.
Dispute over Election Commission continued. Supreme Court rejected draft voter list published by Commission while Bureau of Statistics stated list contains extra 11 million voters, leading to opposition Awami League (AL) demonstrations against “election engineering”. Separate AL protests demanded end to water and power shortages. Journalists in Kushtia reportedly attacked by cadres of ruling BNP. 2 leaders of banned Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen group, and 10 accomplices sentenced to death for November 2005 murder of 2 judges.
Power-sharing agreement reached after Laisenia Qarase, PM and leader of mainly ethnic Fijian SDL party, won narrow victory over Labour party, mainly representing ethnic Indian population. Labour, after internal disagreements, agreed to 9 portfolios offered by Qarase but party leader Chaudhry opted to stay out of government.
Maoist violence and religious clashes continued. Maoists attacked refugee camp in Chhattisgarh killing 4 surrendered rebels 13 May. 12 killed by suspected Maoist landmine in Maharashtra state 16 May. Hindu-Muslim clashes in Uttar Pradesh state killed 2 after local BJP leader shot dead 28 May, while 7 killed in western Gujarat state after authorities tried to demolish Muslim shrine in Vadodara 1 May. “Positive” talks between New Delhi and northeastern National Socialist Council of Nagaland (IM) rebels 18 May; next round within month. Talks with National Democratic Front of Bodoland rebels 27 May led to 6-month ceasefire extension.
Violence continued in Indian-controlled Kashmir in apparent reaction to positive talks between Indian PM Singh and main moderate faction of APHC that set up unprecedented framework for future talks. Violence increased before 24-25 May roundtable in Srinagar with grenade attacks and suicide bomber killing 15. Militants attacked Congress party rally in Srinagar while warning given to APHC of “dire consequences” for participation in roundtable prompting APHC withdrawal 22 May. Police reportedly found bodies of 4 Muslims in Baramulla district, allegedly killed for being police informers. Separate India/Pakistan talks on Siachen glacier and Sir Creek border disputes ended without breakthrough.
State of emergency declared in Yogyakarta after 5.9 magnitude earthquake 27 May killed 6,000 and displaced 650,000. Draft law on Aceh governance still being debated in parliament with human rights provision, extent of Islamic law application and other issues unresolved. Thousands protested delays, calling for quick approval to allow provincial elections - now not likely before 15 September. EU-led Aceh Monitoring Mission’s mandate extended until mid-September to oversee polls. Dissension within GAM reportedly growing over election participation. Relations with Australia thawed after Papua asylum issue tension; FMs Wirayuda and Downer met 15 May and announced Indonesia’s ambassador, recalled in March, would return to Canberra. Tensions remained in Papua: trials of suspects in Abepura riots began 17 May. In Central Sulawesi, police arrested several men led by JI member on suspicion of October 2005 beheading of 3 Christian schoolgirls; later aired taped confession. Further trials in connection with 2005 Bali bombs began 9 May.
Nuclear negotiations remained on hold and North-South engagement suffered setback. Pyongyang stopped testing railway reconnection leading Seoul to reconsider cooperation projects. Previously South President Roh Moo-hyun had stated desire to meet Kim Jong-il with offer of increased economic aid. UN resumed limited food aid ending 6-month dispute with government over monitoring of distribution. North’s FM Paek Nam-sun visited Beijing 30 May..
Police clashed with opposition MDP demonstrators calling on President Gayoom to remove 29 unelected members of law-making chambers. Over 100 reportedly arrested, prompting EU call for more accommodating approach to opposition. MDP chair Nasheed trial on terrorism and sedition charges resumed 28 May.
Military junta continued campaign in Karen state “to clear up terrorist resistance”; over 10,000 ethnic Karens reported displaced. Unexpected visit by UN envoy Gambari and rare meeting with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi raised hopes for her release; UN suggested forthcoming aid and UNSG Annan made direct appeal, but junta ordered 1-year extension of Suu Kyi’s house arrest.
New government and Maoists met for first peace talks since 2003. Sides agreed to ceasefire and code of conduct which commits both to multi-party system, elections for constituent assembly and end to provocations. Talks due early June. Previously government dropped terrorism charges against Maoists and released hundreds from prison. Parliament voted unanimously to restrict royal powers 18 May, putting Nepal Army under control of parliament, calling for royal family to pay taxes, parliament to name heir to throne and country to be secular state - but did not abolish monarchy. 18 members of PM Girija Prasad Koirala’s cabinet named after intense internal debate. Government scrapped curbs on press freedom and NGOs, and set up panel to investigate excesses of royal government. 9 top security officials suspended, but not head of army. Major OHCHR report released 25 May, detailing torture, illegal detention and suspected mass murder carried out by former Royal Nepal Army in 2003.
Tensions continued to rise in Balochistan following 8 April government ban of Balochistan Liberation Army. Attacks on gas infrastructure and security forces continued: at least 10 killed in pipeline explosion in Sui; and 8 police in separate attacks. Renewed clashes in and around Miranshah, North Waziristan killed 10 militants and police while 3 pro- government tribal leaders killed in separate incidents. In South Waziristan, 2 officials shot dead by militants 12 May. Former PMs Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif signed “Charter of Democracy” in first attempt to forge common platform against military government.
Despite initial optimism, informal MILF-Manila talks stalled over territorial delimitation and jurisdiction of ancestral homeland on Mindanao. MILF also stated serious opposition to renewed government interest in foreign mining investment. Muslim envoys visiting Mindanao to revive lapsed 1996 peace deal between Manila and MNLF called for better implementation by Manila of autonomy provisions, release of leader and MILF-MNLF cooperation. Communist rebels threatened more attacks on mining facilities in northern Luzon.
Situation improved after opposition leader Sogavare won secret parliamentary ballot 4 May, following April mass riots which forced resignation of Snyder Rini. Australia to scale down troop presence from 400 to 140.
Security continued to deteriorate. Sri Lankan Monitoring Mission admitted “low-intensity war” and ruled government and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) violated truce and security forces involved in extrajudicial retaliatory killings of Tamil civilians. Widespread violence included 11 May clash between navies killing 17 sailors and 50 LTTE. Rebels accused military of killing commander in Batticaloa. Attacks also targeted humanitarian workers: employee of Norwegian Refugee Council killed. Rebels and government agreed to talks in Norway to discuss security of peace monitors but LTTE insist not part of peace negotiations. Donor “Co-chairs” (Japan, U.S., EU, Norway) condemned both sides for deterioration. EU placed LTTE on terrorist list despite earlier rebel warning move would provoke “hardline individualist path”.
President Chen Shui-bian ceded control of cabinet to PM after scandal involving family member; remains in charge of foreign and defence policy, and ties with China. Taiwan unveiled first formal national security policy 20 May, pledging to increase defence spending by 20% and urging China to cooperate in establishing military buffer zone. Policy asserts China set on long-term military expansion to control Taiwan. According to annual Pentagon report China increased number of ground troops in straits area by 25,000.
Political uncertainty in Bangkok and violence in south continued. Constitutional Court annulled 2 April election and called for new ballot. Election date set for 15 October, allowing MPs 90 days to change parties before contesting seats. No defections expected from ruling TRT party. Caretaker PM Thaksin returned to office 23 May after 6-week break; still head of TRT but might not contest election. People’s Alliance for Democracy, anti-Thaksin group, to transform into political party. New Muslim party established by southern academics welcomed by locals as possible channel to address southern conflict but unlikely to make impact at national level. Several hostage-taking incidents in Narathiwat, including 2 female teachers 19 May; national outcry led to temporary closure of more than 200 schools in “red zone”.
Security collapsed as 600 renegade soldiers, dismissed in April after strike over perceived discrimination against western recruits and led by Maj. Alfredo Reinado, clashed with security forces. 30 killed since late April, including 10 disarmed police under UN protection, leading to deployment of over 2,000 mostly Australian troops 25-29 May at request of government. Arson attacks and looting throughout capital as urban gang members contributed to chaos, along with protests calling for resignation of PM Alkatiri. President Gusmao imposed emergency powers of full presidential control 30 May; defence and interior ministers resigned 1 June.
Parliament set up committee to investigate Chief Prosecutor Sollaku on allegations of organised crime ties.
Speaker of Parliament Baghdasarian resigned, pulling his Orinats Yerkir Party out of ruling coalition. Baghdasarian’s earlier remarks in favour of NATO accession and critical of Russia for impeding process, rebuked by President Kocharian, were seen as reason for rift.
Azeri and Armenian FMs met with OSCE Minsk Group in Strasbourg 18 May, but failed to agree on proposed 4-6 June date for 2 presidents to meet in Bucharest. Minsk Group chairmen held talks with President Kocharian in Yerevan 25 May.
Repeat of November 2005 parliamentary elections held 13 May in 10 constituencies with 36.5% turnout. Ruling New Azerbaijan Party gained 5 seats, remaining 5 went to independents and “soft” opposition. OSCE/ODIHR observers noted some improvement but ongoing need for electoral reform. Bahaddin Haziyev, editor of opposition paper, severely beaten by unidentified assailants 19 May. Third round of ENP Action Plan talks with EU postponed.
Spanish PM Zapatero said on visit to region he would announce start of direct talks between government and ETA in June.
EU froze assets of President Lukashenko and 35 officials, supplementing April travel ban, while U.S. also imposed travel ban. Friction between government and opposition continued. May Day demonstrators protested against April imprisonment of opposition leader Milinkevich who was released after 15-day sentence. Authorities temporarily detained opposition leader Lyabedzka prior to another rally 10 May. Businessman Levaneuski released after 2-year jail term for alleging government corruption.
Republika Srpska PM Dodik urged Bosnian Serbs be given right to self-determination referendum following 21 May Montenegrin independence vote; NGOs collected over 50,000 signatures in support. High Rep. Schwarz-Schilling sharply denounced Dodik and ruled out referendum. Second round of Stablisation and Association Agreement (SAA) technical negotiations with EU held 12 May, but EU warned implementation of failed constitutional amendments and police reform main conditions of progress towards SAA. Leaders of 6 main parties issued statement reiterating commitment to constitutional changes, despite April failure to pass reforms. General elections set for 1 October.
Russian President Putin intervened to defuse mounting power struggle between Chechen President Alkhanov and PM Kadyrov by holding 5 May Moscow meeting. Kadryov’s involvement in rights violations under scrutiny after Council of Europe anti-torture watchdog prevented from visiting Kadyrov’s home village, suspected site of prisoner abuse, and rights group alleged secret prison network used to detain and torture civilians. 9 soldiers reported killed in insurgent ambushes 17, 23 May.
Parliamentary elections held 21 May. Poll, in which President Papadopoulos’ Diko Party improved standing with 18% vote and its coalition partner AKEL Party gained most votes with 31%, seen as endorsing ruling coalition and its anti- Annan Plan position. Pro-reunification opposition Disy Party followed AKEL with 30%.
Following April import ban on Georgian wine and brandy, Russia banned mineral water, one of Georgia’s biggest exports. First convoy of Russian military equipment moved from Akhalkalaki base to Armenia 18 May. Georgian- Abkhaz Coordinating Council met in Tbilisi 15 May, first time since 2001; sides exchanged peace initiatives. UNSG’s Group of Friends for Georgia visited Tbilisi and Sukhumi 22-23 May. International Consortium of Black Sea Railways set up to address restoration of Abkhaz section of Russian-Georgian railway. Joint Control Commission meeting on South Ossetia held 11-12 May; sides agreed to 14 June donor conference. Georgia criticised arrival of 500 Russian troops in South Ossetia without visas as illegal; Russia said standard rotation.
“For a Just Kazakhstan” opposition alliance activist Zhumabaev sentenced to 5 years prison on charges of causing civil disorder 15 May. Alliance also alleged leader Zhaqiyanov prevented by authorities from travelling to Astana to meet visiting U.S. Vice President Cheney.