Under mounting street pressure and lack of agreement with regional body ECOWAS over transition’s duration, ruling junta dissolved main opposition coalition, replaced PM and revamped cabinet. Following several anti-junta protests since June, Justice Minister Charles Wright 2 Aug directed public prosecutor’s office to begin legal proceedings against coalition of political parties, trade unions and civil society groups, National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC), on charges of “defamation”, “dissemination of false information likely to endanger public peace and security”, and “complicity of murder”. Interim govt 6 Aug dissolved FNDC by decree, citing threat to “national unity, public peace and cohabitation”. Despite regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 15 Aug dispatching official to meet with FNDC in effort to appease tensions, some clashes 17 Aug erupted between law enforcement and youths on outskirts of capital Conakry, reportedly leaving two dead, a few dozen injured or arrested. ECOWAS-appointed mediator, Benin’s former President Boni Yayi, 21-27 Aug visited capital Conakry to rekindle negotiations with junta leaders on transition’s duration and facilitate political dialogue between junta, political parties and civil society; upon departure, Boni said parties will continue discussions “in order to agree on a timetable and content for the transition that is accepted by all”. At ECOWAS’ request, FNDC 26 Aug reportedly suspended protests scheduled in Conakry for 29 Aug and 4 Sept, but maintained nationwide demonstration planned on 5 Sept. Meanwhile, PM Mohamed Béavogui, who has been in Italy since mid-July, 12 Aug said he would return to Guinea once his medical condition improves. Amid rumours that his absence stems from disagreements with interim President Col Doumbouya over transition timeline, latter 20 Aug appointed acting PM Bernard Gomou to permanently fill PM position as Béavogui’s replacement. Doumbouya same day also reshuffled cabinet ahead of first anniversary of 5 Sept putsch that overthrew former President Condé.

Main opposition forces boycotted second round of national dialogue and held several anti-junta protests; and West Africa’s regional bloc set 1 August deadline for revised transition timetable. Govt 1 July launched second round of national dialogue initiated in June; prominent political party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and civil society coalition National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) did not attend, however, demanding terms of dialogue be reset. Meanwhile, authorities 5 July arrested three FNDC leaders, including prominent pro-democracy activist Foniké Mengué, for alleged “contempt of court” over comments criticising Prosecutor’s Office and military-appointed parliament. As videos showing leaders’ brutal arrest circulated on social media, protests 5-6 July erupted in capital Conakry; clashes between police and youth groups reportedly left at least 17 police officers injured. All three activists released 8 July after Dixinn court same day found them not guilty. FNDC, joined by deposed President Condé’s Rally of the Guinea People and other opposition forces, 28-29 July defied ban on protests and held anti-junta marches in Conakry; clashes with police reportedly left at least two dead and many injured on both sides, while police said 85 people were detained 28 July. FNDC 30 July said two senior officials, including Foniké Mengué, arrested previous night; also said it was calling off protests for one week following request by Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to give mediation a chance. Earlier in month, ECOWAS 3 July rejected 36-month transition proposed by interim authorities, required latter to submit revised transition timetable by 1 August or face economic sanctions. ECOWAS heads of state same day appointed Benin’s former President Boni Yayi as mediator for Guinea; Yayi 19 July arrived in Conakry for series of meetings with govt officials, including interim President Col Doumbouya. ECOWAS chair, Guinea-Bissau’s President Sissoco Embaló, 28 July said junta had accepted two-year transition, which Conakry refused to confirm.

Security forces brutally suppressed protest, leaving one dead, and junta initiated talks with political opposition and civil society; West Africa regional bloc postponed decision on sanctions until July. In capital Conakry, demonstration against fuel price increases held 1 June despite protest ban imposed in May; security forces cracked down on protesters, leaving one young man dead, 7 June announced arrest of five police officers in connection with killing. Civil society organisation National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) 23 June cancelled march against interim President Col Doumbouya’s three-year transition plan scheduled for same day, gave govt until 30 June to initiate dialogue, prompting PM Mohamed Béavogui to convene talks 27 June; FNDC and political coalition built around political party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) participated, but former presidential party Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) boycotted event to protest ongoing detention of party leaders. Meanwhile, gendarmes 7 June detained special forces officer who was key to Sept 2021 coup, Commander Aly Camara, on unknown charges for second time since coup. Amid concerns that deposed President Condé, who junta allowed in May to seek medical treatment in Türkiye, may try to evade judges investigating crimes committed under his presidency, Sec Gen of Presidency Col Amara Camara 8 June said “Condé will come back home”. Regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 4 June reiterated request for “acceptable transition timetable”, without giving more details, and urged govt to initiate dialogue with political and civil society stakeholders to “ease socio-political tensions”; FM Morissanda Kouyaté 24 June visited Côte d’Ivoire as part of regional tour to lobby against potential commercial sanctions that ECOWAS could approve during next meeting set for 3 July.

Three-year timeline to elections sparked local outcry as rift widened between military authorities, on one hand, and political parties and civil society, on the other; ruling junta announced armed forces reforms. After interim President Col Doumbouya late April proposed to extend transition by 39 months, interim legislative body, National Transitional Council (CNT), 11 May approved slightly shorter 36-month timeline to elections. Revised timeline endorsed despite condemnation hours earlier by G58 umbrella group of opposition parties of Doumbouya’s “authoritarian governance” and alleged attempt to “confiscate power”. Meanwhile, National Front for the Defence of the Constitution (FNDC) civil society coalition immediately denounced CNT decision, threatened street protests. Ruling junta 13 May banned demonstrations; FNDC immediately said they “would not comply” with “illegal decision”, vowed to send complaint to UN Human Rights Office, which 30 May urged transitional authorities to revoke ban. Three-year transition to constitutional rule also prompted international reactions. UN Sec Gen Guterres 1 May urged junta to operate “swift transition”, while EU 4 May called for “truly inclusive dialogue” over roadmap to defuse tensions. Doumbouya 5 May appointed Lt Col Ismael Keita to lead military intelligence services with Lt Col Oumar Barou Yombouno as his deputy. Defence Minister Aboubacar Sidiki Camara 23 May unveiled military reforms with stated aim of improving working conditions of rank-and-file soldiers, combating clientelism and factionalism within armed forces. Public Prosecutor Charles Alphonse Wright 4 May announced investigations against former President Condé and 26 of his collaborators, including former PM Kassory Fofana, former Defence Minister Mohamed Diané and former National Assembly Speaker Amadou Damaro Camara, on charges of “murder, torture, kidnappings and rape” in relation to repression of anti-third term demonstrations in 2020.

Special court charged former President Condé-era officials with financial crimes, while interim military authorities proposed 39-month transition to civilian rule. Court for economic and financial crimes (set up by ruling junta in late 2021) placed former govt officials and members of former ruling party Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) in detention on several charges, including corruption, embezzlement of public funds and money laundering: PM Ibrahima Kassory Fofana and former Defence Minister Mohamed Diané jailed 6 April; two other former ministers, Albert Damantang Camara and Ibrahima Kourouma, held in custody 21 April; former National Assembly Speaker Amadou Damaro Camara and former Electoral Commission President Loucény Camara also sent to prison around 28 April. In response, RPG 14 April suspended participation in national dialogue. On interim President Doumbouya’s orders, former President Condé 8 April returned to Guinea after receiving medical treatment in United Arab Emirates since Jan; ruling military junta 22 April announced Condé freed from house arrest. Meanwhile, Territorial and Decentralisation Minister Mory Condé 15 April unveiled ten-step electoral roadmap without set deadlines. Country 25 April missed regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) deadline to present “acceptable timetable” for return to civilian rule. ECOWAS 27 April announced it would send mission to country to determine next steps. Doumbouya 30 April proposed 39-month transition to civilian rule; RPG and other opposition groups immediately denounced move.

Tensions over management and duration of post-coup transition persisted as civil society and political opposition threatened protests against ruling military junta. Prominent civil society coalition National Front for the Defence of the Constitution 1 March asserted authenticity of document circulated late-Feb on social media detailing President Doumbouya’s alleged plan for four-year transition; also called for protests to “oppose with determination any idea of a long transition”. Coalition of 58 political formations, including main opposition parties Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) and Union of Republican Forces (UFR), 9 March threatened protests over Doumbouya’s “unilateral” management style and urged regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to appoint special envoy to arbitrate political process; demanded transparency over composition of junta – whose members transitional charter bans from competing in forthcoming elections; and stressed “socio-political stakeholders in concert with the junta” (but not legislative body National Transitional Council as Doumbouya argues) should set transition’s duration. UFDG leader Cellou Dalein Diallo 5 March said authorities’ move in Feb to confiscate his and UFR leader Sidya Touré’s residences in capital Conakry as part of corruption cases reflected “desire to harm and humiliate political leaders”. Authorities 22 March launched National Conference bringing together some political parties, youth groups, women’s organisations, traditional leaders and civil society organisations to discuss “new institutional framework”; opposition coalition including Diallo and Touré’s parties however boycotted talks, citing lack of consultation on conference’s agenda. During summit in Ghana, ECOWAS 25 March said it will impose “immediate economic and financial sanctions” on Guinea should authorities fail to propose “acceptable transition timetable” by 25 April.

Tensions ran high between political class and military over transition’s trajectory. Legislative body National Transitional Council (CNT) 5 Feb met for inaugural session and 7 Feb held first plenary session in capital Conakry. Coalition of opposition parties Forum des Partis Politiques, which includes former PM Sidya Touré’s Union of Republican Forces, 10 Feb decried as “inappropriate” population’s hearing tour planned by CNT President Dansa Kourouma and peers. Amid rumours that transition’s President Doumbouya wants CNT to set age limit for presidential candidates, septuagenarian Touré 12 Feb urged Doumbouya to “abstain from excluding political leaders” from upcoming elections. New Prosecutor Alphonse Charles Wright 3 Feb referred embezzlement case against prominent politician Cellou Dalein Diallo to newly created Court for the Repression of Economic and Financial Crimes; Diallo 5 Feb painted move as “another manoeuvre to harm him”. Wright 13 Feb launched investigations into crimes committed under former President Condé between 2010 and 2020, including killings. Meanwhile, regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) 3 Feb voiced renewed concern over lack of electoral calendar to restore constitutional rule. Joint ECOWAS-UN delegation 27 Feb landed in Conakry to discuss electoral schedule with transitional authorities.

Amid concerns over slow transition and junta’s interference in judicial sphere, military set up legislative council in charge of defining timetable for elections. Junta late Dec-early Jan dismissed and replaced Justice Minister Fatoumata Yarie Soumah after she criticised junta’s intrusion into judiciary and disagreed with Presidency’s Sec Gen Col Amara Camara over her department’s inner workings. Over 120 opposition parties 3 Jan formed new coalition Collectif des Partis Politiques around main opposition party Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea with view to proposing electoral schedule. Following consultations between govt and political party leaders 11 Jan, junta 22 Jan set up 81-member National Transitional Council (CNT) to serve as legislative body; CNT includes number of civil society representatives, 15 political party representatives and nine security forces representatives, with prominent civil society activist and election expert Dansa Kourouma appointed CNT president. Interim President Doumbouya 24 Jan dismissed nine senior public officials, accusing them of embezzlement of public funds and forgery, including Head of National Anti-Corruption Agency Sékou Mohamed Sylla. Meanwhile, West Africa’s regional bloc ECOWAS 9 Jan maintained sanction regime against junta, including travel ban and asset freeze, regretted transition’s “slow progress” and “absence of electoral calendar”. Junta next day refused to enforce new ECOWAS sanctions on Malian junta citing “pan-Africanist vision”. Following late Dec request, deposed President Condé 17 Jan flew to United Arab Emirates for medical reasons.

Transitional govt continued to display firmness toward defunct regime and pursue appeasement policy toward opposition; ECOWAS reiterated request for elections in March. As part of declared anti-corruption effort, ruling junta National Rally and Development Committee (CNRD) 2 Dec created Court for Repression of Economic and Financial Crimes. Justice Minister Fatoumata Yarie Soumah 4 Dec said body does not seek to “settle scores” with deposed President Condé’s govt officials, but mismanagement that tainted Condé’s rule makes them potential targets. Interim President Doumbouya 7 Dec dismissed Central Bank President Louncény Nabé, who had served under Condé for almost a decade. Security forces 11 Dec used tear gas and arrested dozens of Condé’s followers protesting in capital Conakry to call for his release; same day prevented another pro-Condé protest in Kindia prefecture (north east). Meanwhile, former President Sékouba Konaté 18 Dec and former President Moussa Dadis Camara 22 Dec came back from ten-year exile, after CNRD late Nov authorised their return as part of appeasement policy. PM Mohamed Mohamed Béavogui 25 Dec presented interim govt’s program to Doumbouya without specifying transition timetable, while civil society coalition 29 Dec proposed 24-month transition period. Govt 31 Dec authorised Condé to leave country for one month for medical reasons. West Africa regional bloc ECOWAS 12-13 Dec regretted lack of clear electoral roadmap and reiterated demand that Guinea hold elections by March. AU Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat 5 Dec visited Guinea and promised to “accompany the transition” in soft statement contrasting with ECOWAS’s firmness.

Interim President Doumbouya continued to assert control over security forces, while unclear duration of transition fuelled tensions. Newly appointed PM Mohamed Béavogui 5 Nov unveiled cabinet of 27 ministers after weeks-long consultations with ruling military junta National Rally and Development Committee (CNRD): new govt includes two retired generals from Doumbouya’s inner circle as defence and security ministers, and three politicians who took up positions without approval from their respective parties. Leading figure of junta, Col Amara Camara, appointed same day presidency’s sec gen. Doumbouya continued to consolidate his control over security forces, notably retiring 1,000 soldiers 1 Nov and 537 police officers 9 Nov, including controversial head of National Police Ansoumane Baffoe Camara. Doumbouya 4 Nov also promoted younger officers close to junta to strategic positions and 12 Nov appointed 22 new army commanders to strategic regional battalions. Tensions increased between junta on one hand, and political class and foreign partners on the other amid rumours that Doumbouya contemplates three-year transition. Notably, former PM Lansana Kouyaté 8 Nov called on CNRD to “start working” and organise elections by late 2022. West Africa’s regional bloc ECOWAS 7 Nov upheld sanctions on junta members, including travel bans and asset freezes, and country’s suspension from all ECOWAS governing bodies “until constitutional order is restored”; also reiterated call for deposed President Condé’s “unconditional release”. ECOWAS same day appointed former head of UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel Mohamed Ibn Chambas as special envoy to Guinea. In response, Doumbouya 14 Nov said it was up to legislative body National Transitional Council to determine transition’s duration and Condé’s fate was in the hands of justice; also rejected external mediation, but welcomed international electoral assistance. Doumbouya 29 Nov announced Condé’s transfer to his wife’s home in Conakry suburbs, yet did not specify whether deposed president under house arrest or subject to other restrictions.