Greece and Turkey relaunched “exploratory talks” on their differences in Aegean Sea after almost five-year hiatus amid low-level military tensions. Following conciliatory messages earlier in month, Turkish and Greek officials 25 Jan met in Turkey’s capital Istanbul for first time since 2016 to launch 61st round of so-called “exploratory talks” on issues in Aegean; no details were revealed on content of talks but sides agreed to continue them in next round in Greece’s capital Athens in coming months. Prior to talks, differences surfaced over their scope: Greek PM Mitsotakis 13 Jan said Greece hoped talks would continue where they left off in 2016, focused exclusively on maritime delimitation issues, while Turkish FM Çavuşoğlu 15 Jan said “there is no point in having these talks” if Athens does not want to discuss other issues, such as sovereignty over disputed islands. International powers welcomed dialogue: U.S. and UK 12 Jan expressed support and Germany 16 Jan called talks “important step” and “good news for the entire region”;German FM Heiko Maas 18 Jan visited Ankara and reiterated support. Despite Athens and Ankara 18 Jan holding military-to-military talks at NATO, some military tensions in Aegean continued throughout month. Notably, Greece 12 and 13 Jan held military exercises near islands of Limnos, Samothrace and Psara, prompting Turkey to call for islands to be demilitarised; Greece 14 Jan also held aeronautical exercise in disputed airspace south of Kastellorizo island. Ankara 16 Jan said Greek exercises both violated demilitarised status of islands and impinged on area in which Turkish navy conducted firing drills.

Tensions between Greece and Turkey cooled, raising prospect of resumption of exploratory talks. Tensions between Greece and Turkey tempered after Ankara late Nov withdrew its seismic survey vessel Oruç Reis from disputed waters, raising prospect that bilateral exploratory talks could resume. Following 10 Dec two-day summit, EU Council refrained from anticipated sanctions on Turkey and instead reaffirmed support for Greece and Republic of Cyprus, condemned Turkey’s “provocative” behaviour in East Med and stated positive agenda remained if Turkey “showed readiness… to resolve differences through dialogue and in accordance with international law”. In phone call with EU Council President Charles Michel on 15 Dec, Turkish President Erdoğan said steps by EU constituted “a new window of opportunity”, stressing Turkey’s intent “to turn a new page with the EU”. Meanwhile, military activities continued. Greece 13-15 Dec held military drills near the easternmost Aegean islands of Samothrace, Limnos, Chios, Samos, Tilos and Halki; Turkey 13 Dec responded with three advisory announcements for demilitarisation of these islands. Turkey 13 and 19 Dec issued advisories disputing Greece’s jurisdiction over airspace south of Kastellorizo, where Greek air force 15 and 21 Dec conducted aeronautical exercises. FMs of Cyprus, Greece and Jordan 8 Dec met in Jordan’s capital Amman to lay groundwork for establishment of permanent secretariat to facilitate regional cooperation. United Arab Emirates (UAE) participated for first time alongside France in joint Greek, Egyptian and Cypriot training exercises held 30 Nov-6 Dec off Egyptian coast. Egypt 17 Dec announced that UAE had joined the East Med Gas Forum as observer.

Tensions between Greece and Turkey continued amid ongoing Turkish exploration activity. Exchange of conciliatory diplomatic statements between Greek PM Mitsotakis and Turkish President Erdoğan following deadly 30 Oct earthquake off Samos island proved short-lived as Ankara 31 Oct and 11 Nov issued new advisories extending exploration activities of seismic survey vessel Oruç Reis in contested waters. Greek MFA 11 Nov condemned activities, saying they violated “international law of the sea and [are] undermining peace and stability in the region”; Turkish MFA same day responded that Greek statements were “based on Greece’s maximalist maritime boundary claims”. Greece and Republic of Cyprus continued to demand harsh EU sanctions against Turkish actions in eastern Mediterranean ahead of European Council summit scheduled for 10-11 Dec; EU Parliament 26 Nov passed non-binding resolution requesting EU leaders to “take actions and impose tough sanctions” on Ankara; Turkish MFA next day called parliament “disconnected from reality”. Turkey 30 Nov pulled back Oruç Reis after it completed exploration mission in disputed maritime zones south of Kastellorizo off the Turkish coast. Meanwhile, military exercises on both sides continued throughout month. During 11-12 Nov visit to Greece’s capital Athens, Egyptian President Sisi declared Egypt “will stand by Greece and in favour of its rights”. Defence ministers of Greece, Israel and Republic of Cyprus 12 Nov agreed to deepen military and security ties, specifically regarding joint training programs, intelligence sharing and cybersecurity. Greece and United Arab Emirates 23 Nov signed security agreement which includes mutual defence clause, obligating each country to help other if its territorial integrity is threatened. Egypt, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus announced plans to conduct joint military drills in eastern Mediterranean early Dec.

Tensions remained high between Greece and Turkey. Tensions in Eastern Mediterranean continued. NATO 1 Oct established deconfliction mechanism that includes hotline between Greece and Turkey for use in event of crisis. Greek and Turkish FMs 8 Oct met in Bratislava, Slovakia, and agreed on date to relaunch exploratory talks, but subsequent developments overshadowed positive step: Turkey continued with gas explorations in Greek and Republic of Cyprus-claimed waters while both Greece and Turkey continued to carry out small-scale military exercises, including in contested waters in the Aegean, throughout month. Ankara 9 Oct issued advisory for exploration activities east of Cyprus until 9 Nov. Tensions rose significantly after Ankara 11 Oct issued advisory for exploration activities of Oruç Reis drillship in Greek-claimed waters south of Kastellorizo. Greek FM 13 Oct slammed decision and said talks are not possible while drillship remains within “Greek continental shelf”; Turkish defence minister next day said Oruç Reis “is not a threat to anybody”. Turkish decision prompted German FM Heiko Maas to cancel trip to Turkey and 15 Oct condemn move alongside French counterpart, while U.S. State Dept 13 Oct said it “deplores” decision. In response, Turkish MFA 11 Oct published report accusing Greece of escalating tensions. NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 23 Oct announced that Greece and Turkey decided to cancel military exercises planned for following week. Following 30 Oct earthquake in Izmir, Turkey, that killed at least a dozen and injured hundreds, Greek PM Mitsotakis same day telephoned Turkish President Erdoğan to offer condolences; Erdoğan same day thanked Mitsotakis, saying “that two neighbors show solidarity in difficult times is more valuable than many things in life”.