Constitutional Court suspended PM Prayuth Chan-ocha amid dispute over legal term limits, while govt and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) held talks prior to coordinated attacks in deep south. Over 50 law professors from 15 Thai universities 16 Aug penned open letter to Constitutional Court president arguing that PM Prayuth Chan-ocha’s term ought to end on 24 Aug on basis that Prayuth became PM in Aug 2014 following coup, thus fulfilling eight-year limit. Opposition MPs 17 Aug submitted petition to House Speaker seeking Constitutional Court ruling on term’s end date. Court 24 Aug accepted petition by opposition MPs and suspended Prayuth, giving him 15 days to respond; Prayuth urged people to “respect the decision of the court”. Hundreds of protesters 21-24 Aug rallied against Prayuth’s government in capital Bangkok. Fifth round of Joint Working Group – Peace Dialogue Panel 1-2 Aug took place in Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur between main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) and govt delegation; talks focused on proposals for Draft Terms of Reference for Public Consultation, Reduction of Bilateral Acts of Violence and Joint Working Group formed in Jan. Govt delegation proposed second reduction of violence initiative 15 Aug-30 Nov following on from 3 April-14 May Ramadan Peace Initiative, but BRN said there was insufficient time to conclude agreement. Meanwhile, violence continued in deep south. IED 2 Aug wounded two rangers on motorcycle patrol in Mai Kaen district, Pattani province. IED 15 Aug killed ranger and wounded nine others in Sungai Padi district, Narathiwat province; second IED explosion 300m from first hit responders, killing ranger and wounding seven police officers and one civilian. Militants night of 16-17 Aug staged coordinated bombing and arson attacks targeting 17 convenience stores and gas stations across Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat provinces, causing property damage and killing one in Pasemat subdistrict, Su-ngai Kolok district, Narathiwat. BRN 18 Aug issued Facebook statement claiming responsibility for attacks, expressing regret for loss of life and saying attacks were “intended to strike at the power of capitalism” that “is ruining the economies of communities”.

Govt pledged closer ties to both China and U.S. as PM Prayuth and ten ministers saw off fourth no-confidence vote, while insecurity persisted in deep south. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 5 July met Chinese FM Wang Yi in capital Bangkok, where pair agreed to “open up a more stable, prosperous and sustainable future for the two countries”. Prayuth 10 July met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in Bangkok; Blinken and FM Don Pramudwinai same day signed “Strategic Alliance and Partnership Communiqué” covering areas including trade and investment, climate change and regional cooperation. Domestically, parliament 19 July held fourth no-confidence vote since 2020 against Prayuth and ten cabinet ministers, with 45 hours of censure ending 23 July with Prayuth still in office. Canadian cybersecurity organisation Citizen Lab in collaboration with Thai NGO iLaw and internet watchdog Digital Reach 17 July reported that govt used Israeli-supplied Pegasus spyware to monitor at least 30 activists during Oct 2020-Nov 2021 protests for democracy and monarchy reform. Police 20 July denied govt use of spyware but Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn same day in parliament said authorities used spyware in limited number of cases related to national security without identifying spyware as Pegasus or specifying which govt agencies used it. Insecurity persisted in deep south. In Muang district, Pattani province, security forces 5 July killed suspected insurgent after exchange of gunfire. Unknown gunmen next day shot and wounded Muslim man in same area. Also on 6 July, IED targeting govt car wounded ranger in Bannang Sata, Yala province. Security forces same day killed suspected insurgent in shootout in Reusoh district, Narathiwat province. Govt representatives and main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional 14 July confirmed 1-2 Aug dates for next round of peace talks.

Pro-democracy demonstrators demanded PM Prayuth Chan-ocha’s resignation as opposition tabled no-confidence vote, while militant attacks resumed in deep south. Some 200 pro-democracy protesters in capital Bangkok 11 June marched from Democracy Monument to Victory Monument, demanding PM Prayuth Chan-ocha’s resignation. Following march, several dozen protesters pressed on to Din Daeng district toward Prayuth’s residence at 1st Infantry Regiment base; police confronted protesters who threw bottles, fireworks and set fire to police vehicle near Din Daeng intersection. Pro-democracy protesters 19 June held march on same route, calling for release of people jailed under lèse-majesté law and for law to be revoked; few dozen youths clashed with police at Din Daeng intersection, with no injuries reported but one person hospitalised following seizure, while police arrested two protesters aged 17 and 18. Meanwhile, opposition parties 15 June filed no-confidence vote against PM and ten cabinet ministers; censure debate expected mid-July; vote comes in wake of 22 May Bangkok governor election in which Chadchart Sittipunt — independent candidate and former member of Pheu Thai Party — won landslide victory; result widely interpreted as signal of declining electoral prospects for ruling Phalang Pracharat Party. In deep south, after Ramadan Peace Initiative expired mid-May, unknown attackers 1 June killed Malay-Muslim man in orchard in Bannang Sata district, Yala province; authorities did not draw direct link to insurgency. IED hidden in garbage truck 20 June exploded near police checkpoint in Panare district, Pattani province, wounding three police officers; assailant same night tossed hand grenade at sub-district security operations base in Raman district, Yala. Patani United Liberation Organization (PULO) leader Kasturi Makhota 20 June said PULO likely to join peace dialogue process between main separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional and govt.

Truce in deep south between govt and Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) held as planned until late May, while Bangkok expanded defence partnership with Japan. In deep south, Ramadan Peace Initiative — agreement concluded 31 March between govt and main militant separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) for reciprocal reduction of violence 3 April-14 May — held steady, with no attacks attributed to BRN or major operations by security forces during month. After truce expired 14 May, militants 26 May attacked marine police station in Tak Bai border town, Narathiwat province, with IEDs and small arms, wounding one police officer and two defence volunteers; authorities claimed drug traffickers and smugglers responsible for attack. BRN 1 May posted Hari Raya video marking end of Ramadan, criticised increased violence from Thai security forces and suggested Peace Dialogue Process did not conform to international standards; statements came in stark contrast to conciliatory tone expressed at meeting of Peace Dialogue Process working group 31 March-1 April. In Pattani province, in rare mass youth event, several thousand young Malay Muslim men 4 May attended youth event organised by Civil Society Assembling for Peace (CAP) at Wasukri Beach, Saiburi district, to celebrate end of Ramadan and take public oath to defend Pattani Malay culture and identity and “eliminate all forms of oppression”, with at least one BRN flag on display; young Malay Muslim women’s associations 10 May held similar event in Narathiwat province, attended by several thousand. Event organisers 17 May met secretary of Thai dialogue panel Lt Gen Thira Deawa in Pattani province, explaining oath had been mistranslated and that organisers did not authorise BRN flag display; Lt Gen Thira affirmed no legal action would be taken but urged organisers to inform authorities in advance of future events. Meanwhile, activists opposed to draft non-profit organisation bill 23 May began protest near Government House in capital Bangkok; critics say bill threatens civil society and free speech; police 30 May prevented hundreds opposed to draft bill from marching on Government House. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha 2 May met Japanese PM Fumio Kishida, signing agreement on mutual transfer of defence equipment and coordination on regional issues.

Govt and main militant separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) advanced peace talks and agreed to Ramadan ceasefire, notwithstanding continued deadly violence in deep south. Govt and BRN 31 March-1 April met for dialogue, with BRN for first time sending member of military wing, Deng Awaeji – indicating BRN effort to demonstrate internal unity. Both sides endorsed General Principles of Peace Dialogue Process previously discussed in Jan working group meeting, committing each side to “political solutions in accordance with the will of the Patani community under the Unitary State of Thailand in accordance with the Constitution”, public consultation and reduction of violence; both parties also agreed to reducing violence from 3 April to 14 May in Ramadan Peace Initiative. Despite pledge holding steady, violence continued in deep south throughout month. Notably, unidentified gunmen 5 April shot dead Malay-Muslim man in Mae Kaen district, Pattani province. Unidentified gunmen 10 April shot and killed Muslim leader in Nong Chik district, Pattani. IED 15 April killed civilian in Saiburi district, with second bomb targeting responding explosive ordnance disposal officers, wounding three; Patani United Liberation Organisation (PULO) president Kasturi Mahkota 16 April claimed responsibility, saying group named PULO G5 carried out attack due to PULO’s exclusion from BRN dialogue with govt. Member of Thai dialogue delegation next day said attack would not derail Ramadan Peace Initiative and that govt was “ready and happy to talk to all groups”. Meanwhile in capital Bangkok, unknown assailants 10 April threw two “ping pong bombs” into First Infantry Regiment compound, location of PM’s residence, with no injuries reported; police next day arrested seven suspects, including rapper and political activist Thanayuth Na Ayutthaya (alias Eleven Fingers), Patima Fakthong, and pro-democracy protest leader Pornpoj Chaengkrachang (alias Phet Phra Uma), along with four minors.

Govt sought unity among coalition parties amid continued speculation over early election before year’s end, while IED attacks persisted in deep south. PM Prayuth Chan-ocha, deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan and Interior Minister Anupong Paochinda 8 March summoned major coalition party leaders for meeting, stressing need for unity and pledging to finish term. Prawit 14 March hosted leaders of smaller coalition parties, reportedly saying there would be no cabinet reshuffle but election could be called after country hosts regional economic forum APEC summit in Nov. In response to questions from reporters on possible early election, Prayuth 15 March said: “It’s up to me”. Govt’s muted response to Ukraine crisis prompted Swedish Ambassador Jon Åström Gröndahl in 1 March tweet to urge govt to drop neutral language and condemn Russian aggression. Thai delegation to UN next day voted in favour of UN General Assembly resolution demanding end to Russian invasion. Student groups and foreigners in capital Bangkok staged regular protests in front of Russian embassy through mid-March. In deep south, roadside IED 10 March exploded alongside armoured patrol vehicle near school in Bannang Sata town, Yala province, wounding four rangers and two volunteers. In Pattani province, IED 16 March wounded four rangers in Mayo district. Gunmen 20 March shot and killed Muslim man at tea shop in Yarang district. IED 26 March wounded four rangers in Si Sakhon district, Narathiwat. Some 35 cloth banners with messages of “Free Patani” and “Patani is not Siam” 13 March appeared attached to helium balloons in three southernmost provinces (Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat) and four districts in Songkhla province, coinciding with 62nd anniversary of founding of Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), main militant separatist group. Plenary session of dialogue between Thai govt and BRN scheduled for 31 Mar-2 Apr in Kuala Lumpur.

Court released several political activists under strict conditions, while insecurity persisted in deep south amid spate of IED attacks and deadly encounters between military and security forces. Similar to last month, Feb saw no anti-govt protests. Thai Criminal Court 9 Feb agreed to temporarily release political activists Jatupat “Pai Dao Din” Boonpathararaksa and Panupong “Mike Rayong” Jadnok held on multiple charges, including lèse-majesté. Activist Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak, also charged with lèse-majesté, received bail on 24 Feb to continue his university studies; their release is conditional on abstaining from political activities, observing curfew, and wearing ankle monitors. Seksakol Atthawong, vice minister attached to PM’s Office, 17 Feb led group of royalists to submit petition allegedly carrying 1.2mn signatures to interior ministry to expel Amnesty International from country, accusing NGO of interfering with internal affairs and threatening national security. Minister of Digital Economy and Society Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn next day said his ministry is considering introducing single internet gateway, ostensibly to protect Thais from online crime; move could give authorities tighter grip on access to information inside country. In deep south, insecurity persisted with several IED attacks. In Songhkla province, security forces 3 Feb killed three militants attempting to break through perimeter around Koran learning centre at Khok Khet mosque, Ban-na sub-district, Chana district; IED same day detonated near railway bridge 5km from mosque, wounding villager; another IED 4 Feb exploded in same area, wounding two police officers. In Bangnang Sata district, Yala province, unidentified gunmen 10 Feb wounded Muslim man; IED same day exploded at Bang La dam power plant, wounding Muslim security guard. IED 18 Feb targeted two police vehicles in Raman district, with officers suffering no serious wounds. IED at railway crossing 23 Feb wounded two police officers in Muang district, Yala. In Pattani province, unidentified gunmen on motorcycles 18 Feb shot dead assistant village headman in Talor Kraithong subdistrict, Mai Kaen district; gunmen 21 Feb shot and killed former assistant village chief in Nong Chik district, Pattani.

Political parties continued to prepare for looming election, while talks recommenced between govt and separatist group Barisan Revolusi Nasional after almost two-year hiatus. Ruling Palan Pracharat Party faced several challenges in Jan. Two MPs 17 Jan resigned and former MPs Uttama Savanayana and Sontirat Sontijirawong 19 Jan formed new Sang Anakot Thai party, with splintering indicating weakening of PM Prayut Chan-o-cha’s parliamentary majority. Ruling party 20 Jan also expelled Sec Gen Thammanat Prompao and 20 other MPs. Meanwhile, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra 4 Jan vowed to return to Thailand during 2022, potentially signalling optimistic outlook for main opposition Pheu Thai Party in general election likely going ahead this year. Month saw no anti-govt rallies in one of quietest months since commencement of pro-democracy protests in early 2020, likely due to jailing of protest leaders, end-of-year break and coronavirus concerns. Judges 13 Jan extended bail of student protest leaders Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul and Benja Apa on condition they refrain from participating in protests; other leaders remain in jail. In deep south, insurgents conducted several attacks during Jan. More than ten insurgents 3 Jan attacked Ranger Base 4513 in Ra-ngae district, Narathiwat province, killing one ranger and injuring two. In Narathiwat province, unidentified attackers night of 28 Jan set off 13 small explosives in Yala town, injuring one. Ranger truck 7 Jan struck IED in Nong Chik district, Pattani province, injuring five. Malaysian authorities 13 Jan repatriated three suspected Thai Malay insurgents connected to Runda Kumpulan Kecil group previously arrested in Malaysia after fleeing across border in first such extradition in approximately 25 years. In first dialogue since March 2020, Thai govt and Barisan Revolusi Nasional separatist group 11-12 Jan held preliminary talks over conflict in deep south in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, facilitated by Malaysia’s former federal police chief and observed by delegates from UK and Norway; talks agreed upon three-point framework for future negotiations centred on violence reduction, public participation and political solutions, set to be facilitated by working groups.

Small-scale anti-govt protests continued in capital Bangkok, while insecurity persisted in deep south, which saw series of bomb attacks. In capital Bangkok, police 6 Dec arrested some 36 protesters camped in front of Government House, protesting govt’s planned industrial estate development in Songkhla province’s Chana district. Small, silent vigils, dubbed “Stand Against Imprisonment”, continued to be staged outside courts in Bangkok two or three times per week, to demand bail for anti-govt protest leaders. Small group of activists 7 Dec gathered in Bangkok to call for repeal of lèse-majesté law. Anti-govt protest group Taluh Fah next day organised “car mob” to call for release of jailed pro-democracy protest leaders and show solidarity with anti-industrial estate protesters. Larger-scale protest 12 Dec saw demonstrators gather in capital to demand abolition of lèse-majesté law; at main protest site Ratchaprasong Intersection, police scuffled with crowd; although anti-govt protests have decreased significantly in scale and frequency since their 2020 peak, rally demonstrated both intent and capacity to continue. In deep south, in Narathiwat province, Islamic insurgent group Runda Kumpulan Kecil (RKK) 6 Dec exchanged fire with soldiers of 49th Ranger Regiment in forest near Srisakorn district, killing civilian and RKK leader. Vehicle carrying six officers of Budo Mountain National Park Protection Unit same day drove over roadside bomb in Marue Botok subdistrict; no serious injuries reported. Bomb 11 Dec exploded in Rueso district close to two monks and two rangers. Bomb 14 Dec exploded on road in Su-ngai Padi district, damaging six-vehicle convoy carrying rangers, with no casualties reported. In Songkhla province, security forces 8 Dec clashed with RKK militants in Tae Pha district, with no known casualties. In Pattani province, bomb on train tracks 13 Dec damaged train in Khok Pho district, injuring one passenger and two railway staff. At least 1,000 refugees 17 Dec reportedly crossed into Thailand following fighting in Myanmar’s Kayin State; Thai authorities 19 Dec sent over 600 refugees back across border (see Myanmar). Meanwhile, all political parties continued to prepare for 2022 election despite PM Prayut Chan-o-cha denying possibility of early election several times throughout month.

Despite Constitutional Court setting new precedent for prosecuting anti-monarchy protesters, large anti-govt rally held in capital Bangkok; violence continued in deep south. In unprecedented hearing, Constitutional Court 10 Nov ruled that prominent pro-democracy protest leaders Panupong “Mike” Jadnok, Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul, and lawyer Anon Nampa had through their speeches “aimed to overthrow the constitutional monarchy” with calls for monarchical reform deemed tantamount to treason; local rights groups expressed fear of precedent to target advocates for reform, including opposition legislators. Redem group (formerly Free Youth) 14 Nov held large rally at Pathumwan Intersection in Bangkok calling for curbs to power of monarchy and reform of lèse-majesté law; protesters marched to German embassy, due to king’s frequent visits to country. Riot police attempted to block route and fired rounds into protesters marching past Police General Hospital, injuring three; police denied allegations of using live rounds. Meanwhile, ruling Palang Pracharat Party 3 Nov suspended three MPs, including Chief Whip Wirach Ratanasate, for alleged corruption; decision comes amid internal party shifts and preparations for possible early election. Parliament 16 Nov rejected proposed rewrite of 2017 constitution brought forward by civil society group “Re-solution” that included provision to abolish appointed Senate. In deep south, IED 1 Nov exploded on Ban Taneva Puyo route of Raman district, Yala province, injuring three police officers. In Pattani province, unknown assailants 9 Nov threw explosive at sub-district protection officers' outpost in Sakho Bon, Mayo district, with no injuries reported. In Narathiwat province, police 16 Nov detained suspect in Rue So district in connection with incident of passing motorcyclist shooting at police vehicle; suspect was found with four rifles, with domestic news agencies reporting connections to known insurgents.