CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Calm prevailed in Karakalpakstan as President Mirziyoyev appointed new leader to head region following July’s deadly protests. Following deadly protests early July in autonomous Karakalpakstan region in response to govt’s proposed constitutional amendments, govt 1 Aug closed public consultation period on proposed amendments; commission said parliamentary committee will review feedback and amend accordingly before referendum on constitution is held. President Mirziyoyev 26 Aug appointed Amanbai Orynbaev to lead Karakalpakstan, accusing region’s previous leadership of “failure to find solutions to individual socio-economic problems”, which he said were “at root of the events of two months ago”; predecessor Murat Kamalov same day stepped down, citing health issues. Military participated in U.S.-sponsored military exercise, Regional Cooperation 22, 10-20 Aug in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe, alongside U.S., Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Pakistan (see Tajikistan).
Protests erupted in autonomous Karakalpakstan region in response to govt’s proposed constitutional amendments, turning deadly as police clashed with demonstrators. Protests 1 July erupted in Karakalpakstan’s regional capital Nukus following President Mirziyoev’s proposed constitutional amendments that would have, among other things, ended region’s right to seek independence. Thousands took to streets in apparently peaceful demonstrations; however, violence quickly escalated as police clashed with protesters, prompting govt to suspend internet and phone services and 3 July to impose state of emergency, which was terminated 21 July. Mirziyoev 2 July visited Nukus and announced decision to reverse proposed amendments, ending protests. As of 26 July, internet services had not been restored. Prosecutor general 4 July said at least 18 were killed, over 200 injured and 516 more detained from 1-2 July. Human rights group Open Dialogue Foundation 20 July said 300 people remained behind bars and dozens were still missing. EU 4 July called for “open and independent investigation” and for govt to “guarantee human rights”; U.S. and UN 5 July echoed these statements, with U.S. calling for “peaceful resolution”. Mirziyoev 6 July said commission appointed to investigate unrest will include independent activists and other members of public. Authorities 5 July reported shelling near border with Afghanistan. Five missiles landed in city of Termez in Surxondaryo region, damaging buildings; no group claimed responsibility for attack. During international conference on Afghanistan hosted by Uzbekistan later in month, President Mirziyoev 26 July called on Taliban to “take decisive measures to prevent and counteract terrorism” and to “break off ties with all international terrorist organisations”. Meanwhile, Kyrgyzstan 20-21 July hosted President Mirziyoyev along with leaders of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in Issyk-Kul Lake town of Cholpon-Ata to discuss economic and political cooperation in wake of Ukraine war, COVID-19 pandemic, social unrest and situation in Afghanistan. Summit marked first gathering of regional heads of state since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 Feb (see Ukraine) and ended with pledge to increase cooperation. Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, however, did not sign off on treaty committing countries to “friendship, good neighbourliness and cooperation”, citing domestic procedures.
President Mirziyoyev sought constitutional amendments that could allow him to seek third term. President Mirziyoyev 20 June proposed constitutional amendments that, among other things, could allow him to seek third term in office; current election laws stipulate two five-year term limits. Delegation from Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights 15 June released report that concluded presidential election held in Oct 2021 lacked competition and that significant procedural irregularities were observed. Kunz.uz media platform 1 June reported dramatic increase in price of bread, at times by up to 75%, in some stores in capital Tashkent and other regions since war in Ukraine (which has impacted global food supplies) began (see Ukraine).
Islamic State (ISIS) claimed first cross-border attack from Afghanistan, clashes at Kyrgyz border left two dead, and wheat shortages raised concerns over food security in coming months. Amid uptick in activity in Afghanistan since Taliban takeover last year (see Afghanistan), Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) 18 April said it fired ten rockets from Afghan town of Hairatan at military base located in Uzbek border town of Termez in first such assault of its kind; president’s spokesperson next day denied claims, claiming “situation is stable” and calling on citizens to disregard “provocations”. Kyrgyz Border Guard Service 5 April reported incident between Uzbek border guards and Kyrgyz nationals allegedly attempting to smuggle goods into Uzbek territory on horseback, which resulted in Uzbek guards fatally shooting two individuals. Kazakhstan, major global wheat supplier, 1 April imposed quotas on wheat exports from 15 April to 1 June due to supply disruptions following Russian invasion of Ukraine (see Ukraine); while quotas allow limited exports and Kazakhstan made public assurances it plans to continue regional supply, concerns mounted about potential impact on food security in coming months; Tashkent late March had announced plans to buy 100,000 tonnes of wheat from Kazakhstan between April and July to ensure domestic food security, with imports mainly from Kazakhstan making up about 35% of domestic wheat consumption. Meanwhile, govt 8 April delivered over 34 tonnes of humanitarian aid to Ukraine in further signal of support for country’s territorial integrity.
Authorities detained suspected members of proscribed group. Police in capital Tashkent 26 Jan announced detention of dozens of alleged members of Islamist group Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad that authorities banned in 2016. Media reports 19 Jan revealed Uzbek and Russian security officers detained individual from Uzbekistan in Russia for attempting to join militants in Syria.
Authorities engaged with Taliban and faced renewed scrutiny over country’s human rights situation. In sign of tentative engagement with Taliban, govt 17 Dec announced it had sent technicians to Afghanistan to help repair airport in Mazar-e Sharif city. Six U.S. senators 6 Dec urged U.S. Biden administration to press Tashkent to embark on reforms related to human rights, noting “Uzbekistan remains among the world’s most repressive countries”. Following inaugural meeting of Strategic Partnership Dialogue, U.S. 13 Dec welcomed govt's political reform efforts, including on human rights. NGO Human Rights Watch 9 Dec urged authorities to release Muslim blogger Fozilxoja Orifxojaev, who is facing eight-year prison sentence for “threatening public security over a social-media post”.
President Mirziyoev was sworn in for second term, while govt participated in 17th EU-Central Asia summit. Mirziyoev 6 Nov began his second presidential term after taking oath of office following last month’s election. EU foreign policy chief 22 Nov met FMs of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Tajik capital Dushanbe for 17th EU-Central Asia Ministerial meeting; parties same day issued joint communiqué that reaffirmed support for “strong, ambitious and forward-looking partnership”, noted “the importance of progressing on the rule of law, democracy, governance, gender equality and universal human rights”, and cited concerns over “regional repercussions of developments in Afghanistan”. Ahead of meeting, NGO Human Rights Watch 19 Nov said govt “harassed political opposition figures in the lead up to elections and targeted outspoken and critical bloggers”. State security service 23 Nov announced detention of suspected members of proscribed group Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad in Tashkent region.
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