CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

President Mirziyoyev won second presidential term, while senior Uzbek officials engaged with Taliban govt in Afghanistan. Central Election Commission chairman 25 Oct declared Mirziyoyev winner of election with 80.1% of vote; Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)-led monitoring mission same day said election was “not truly competitive”. Ahead of election on 24 Oct, NGO Human Rights Watch 13 Oct cited restrictions on media freedom and opposition candidates that “compromise the fairness and integrity of the first presidential elections since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev came to power in 2016”. Earlier, U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman 4 Oct met with Mirziyoyev in capital Tashkent to discuss bilateral relations; Sherman “underscored the importance of the United States’ strategic partnership with Uzbekistan”. Turkmenistan President Berdymukhammedov 5 Oct met Mirziyoyev in Tashkent where pair “stressed during the talks that peace and stability in Afghanistan are the key to sustainable development in the entire Central Asian region”. FM Abdulaziz Kamilov 7 Oct visited Afghan capital Kabul to meet acting Deputy Head of Taliban govt Mulla Abdul Kabir and acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi; Kamilov said he “received from our Afghan brothers strong and clear assurances that Afghanistan will never impose any threat or danger on Uzbekistan".

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

President Mirzyoyev confirmed candidacy for Oct presidential election. Ahead of election on 24 Oct, Mirzyoyev 9 Sept accepted nomination by ruling Liberal Democratic Party to seek second five-year term in office. Govt mid-month reportedly began implementing deal reached with U.S. to transfer Afghan pilots and their families, who had fled Afghanistan in Aug, to U.S. military bases in Middle East; foreign ministry 13 Sept confirmed deportation of all Afghan nationals who had flown to Uzbekistan last month.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Amid concerns over regional security, country faced influx of Afghan military aircraft and forces following Taliban’s takeover of major Afghan cities. Presidents of five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan – 6 Aug met in Turkmenbashi city, Turkmenistan, to discuss range of issues, including regional cooperation and “earliest possible settlement of the situation in neighboring Afghanistan”. Presidential envoy to Afghanistan Ismatulla Irgashev 11 Aug met senior Taliban leadership in Qatar alongside senior Russian and Turkmen officials to discuss bilateral relations, border issues, economic projects, as well as security situation. Following Taliban’s seizure of major Afghan cities including capital Kabul (see Afghanistan), reports mid-month surfaced that dozens of Afghan military aircraft and hundreds of soldiers crossed borders into Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; notably, Uzbek defence ministry 16 Aug said air defence downed Afghan aircraft that had crossed into Uzbek airspace, later said collision with Uzbek fighter jet caused crash. Delegation to Tajik-Uzbek border demarcation commission 24-29 Aug held talks with Tajik counterparts. Meanwhile, ruling Liberal Democratic Party 7 Aug announced it will nominate President Mirziyoev as candidate for presidential election scheduled for 24 Oct.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Govt considered U.S. request to accept Afghan refugees following high-level meeting that reaffirmed shared interests. FM Abdulaziz Kamilov 1 July met U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken in U.S. capital Washington, after which Blinken said: “We have strong shared interests when it comes to security in the region, particularly with regard to Afghanistan”. Senior official 22 July said there existed no legal basis to agree to U.S. request to accept Afghan refugees who had cooperated with U.S., saying matter “cannot be decided immediately”.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Authorities made series of arrests of suspected extremists, and concerns rose over border security with Afghanistan. Authorities 15 June apprehended group allegedly planning terrorist attacks in Syria. Police next day detained 20 people in Mirzaobod and Yangier districts of eastern Sirdaryo region suspected of distributing “extremist materials” on social media, reportedly confiscating weapons and literature. Authorities 17 June detained six suspected members of proscribed Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir in Urgut district in south-eastern region of Samarkand. Meanwhile, authorities confirmed that 53 Afghan troops and allied militia fighters 23 June crossed border into Uzbekistan to flee stepped-up Taliban offensive (see Afghanistan); also said that after questioning, Afghan pro-govt forces were allowed back into their country. Authorities mid-June announced military drills along border. UN Special Envoy on Afghanistan Deborah Lyons 22 June warned about potential security repercussions of worsening Afghan conflict on “many other countries, near and far".

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

President Mirziyoyev pardoned prisoners affiliated to proscribed groups. Marking end of holy month of Ramadan, President Mirziyoyev 12 May released, pardoned or commuted sentences of over 100 inmates, including 52 people convicted for taking part in activities of banned groups. Ahead of Oct presidential election, opposition politician mid-May said justice ministry rejected his application to register Truth and Development Social Democrat Party, citing insufficient signatures.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Authorities implemented last month’s border agreement with Kyrgyzstan while seeking to improve economic ties with adjoining provinces in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Following last month’s deal with Kyrgyzstan to resolve longstanding border disputes, authorities 1 April held opening ceremony for road from Rishtan district of Fergana region to Sokh exclave inside Kyrgyzstan. Governor of eastern Ferghana province 23 April hosted governors of Tajikistan’s Sughd province and Kyrgyzstan’s Batken province for forum aimed at boosting economic and cultural ties between three adjoining regions that are located in Ferghana Valley. After new Criminal Code 31 March went into effect, which among other provisions introduced prison sentences for insulting president online, rights group Committee to Protect Journalists 28 April urged govt to repeal laws ahead of Oct presidential election.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Govt and Kyrgyzstan struck deal to resolve longstanding border disputes. Following state visit to Uzbekistan’s capital Tashkent, Kyrgyzstan’s President Japarov and President Mirziyoyev 12 March agreed to complete demarcation of sections of border within three months and improve access between Uzbekistan and its exclave of Sokh inside Kyrgyzstan; Japarov’s press secretary 13 March said “the Uzbek side expressed its readiness not to claim the Unkur-Too area” in Kyrgyzstan’s Osh region. Kyrgyz and Uzbek PMs 25 March approved deal that includes land swaps and opening multiple checkpoints to improve access in and out of Sokh exclave; head of Kyrgyz security services next day said “issues around the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border have been resolved 100 percent” and “there is not a single patch of disputed territory left”. Meanwhile, Ferghana regional court 18 March found 22 defendants guilty of involvement in mass unrest in Kyrgyzstan’s Sokh exclave in May 2020, which left scores injured; defendants sentenced to between two and five years’ imprisonment.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Govt brought forward 2021 presidential election while arrest of blogger prompted international criticism. President Mirziyoev 8 Feb signed into law bill, proposed by parliament in Jan, that rescheduled presidential, parliamentary and local elections, formerly held every five years on first Sunday of last ten days in December, to first Sunday of last ten days in October; move implies next polls now scheduled on 24 Oct 2021. NGO Human Rights Watch 12 Feb condemned 30 Jan arrest of video blogger Otabek Sattoriy, calling extortion case against him “dubious”, said Sattoriy’s coverage of sensitive issues put him in “local authorities’ crosshairs”; UK ambassador 5 Feb said if no credible evidence presented, Sattoriy’s case is “concerning” and “undermines media freedom”, while UN resident coordinator in Uzbekistan 10 Feb said in a tweet UN “welcomes the call for fair & impartial application of the law in respect to this case”.

Europe & Central Asia

Uzbekistan

Trial on deadly security incident at dam last year proceeded; video surfaced showing small-scale protest in Fergana region. Tashkent City Court 5 Jan resumed closed-door trial of May 2020 incident at Sardoba dam, which left six people dead and forced 70,000 people to flee their homes in eastern region of Sirdaryo; trial, which started 21 Dec, involved 17 defendants, including officials of state railway company and construction company, accused of negligence, abuse of office, violation of safety regulations and other offenses. NGO Human Rights Watch 7 Jan said authorities are “severely hindering the work of independent nongovernmental organizations” due to “excessive and burdensome registration requirements”, and called on govt to amend its legislation and allow independent groups to register. Video 13 Jan surfaced apparently showing dozens of people blocking road to protest power cuts in Altyaryk district in far-eastern Fergana region; protesters reportedly dispersed after state officials arrived and promised to resolve energy supply issues. 

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