CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Breakaway South Ossetia reopened crossing points with Georgia proper after three years, tensions with U.S. ambassador persisted, and EU published review of govt’s progress on reforms needed for accession. De facto South Ossetia security council 18 Aug decided to resume functioning of key crossings points with Georgia proper from 20-30 of each month using special passes; crossing points had been largely closed for almost three years following tensions over Tbilisi’s decision in 2019 to install police outpost near South Ossetian village of Tsnelisi at line that separates entity from rest of Georgia. Georgian security service and EU monitoring mission 19, 22 Aug respectively praised opening of crossings, which remain vital for ethnic Georgians living in South Ossetia. New de facto President of South Ossetia Alan Gagloev continued new govt appointments; notably, 15 Aug named Akhsar Jioev de facto foreign minister; 23 Aug named former Russian military serviceman Marat Pavlov de facto defence minister. Tensions with U.S. persisted as Georgia’s ruling party and its political allies continued verbal exchanges with U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan over former’s accusations that Western countries wanted “to drag” Georgia into war with Russia; also accused Degnan and other U.S., EU diplomats of supporting opposition; notably, in statement published 11 Aug, four MPs allied with ruling party accused Degnan of backing “the radical agenda of the radical opposition”. EU 13 Aug released Association Agreement implementation report, reviewing Georgia’s implementation of reforms needed for EU accession. Report complimented country’s progress toward closer economic integration but criticised its poor handling of 2021 local elections and other issues that “threaten to undermine the country’s democratic foundations”. Ruling party 30 Aug accused opposition of trying “their best to sabotage” implementation of EU conditions for candidate status. Syrian FM Faisal Mekdad visited breakaway Abkhazia 24-25 Aug, met with de facto president Aslan Bzhania, saying Abkhazia “relies on Syria's support to expand contacts with Middle East countries that maintain friendly relations with Syria”; Mekdad promised to work to further develop relations with Abkhazia.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

EU accession roadmap sparked fierce political debate, while tensions rose between ruling Georgian Dream party and U.S., EU. Since EU member states conditioned Georgia’s candidate status on fulfilling “outstanding priorities” in June, country’s leadership, opposition and civil society failed to agree on path forward, particularly with regard to electoral reform and “de-oligarchisation”. Ruling Georgian Dream party 1 July presented plan, listing new commissions and existing ministries responsible for reforms, along with timeline; group of civil society organisations 3 July released its own plan. Many opposition politicians and president 11 July voiced concerns about leadership’s readiness to initiate genuine process that might satisfy EU demands. Several leading civil society organisations 12 July declared readiness to support ruling party, while president with support of remaining opposition 15 July signed decree initiating special parliamentary session for debates on fulfilling recommendations; ruling party 18 July promised to boycott session. Several opposition parties 25 July initiated working process on recommendations in parallel to discussions led by ruling party. Tensions with U.S. and EU rose during month. After several parliamentarians late June accused U.S. Ambassador Kelly Degnan of attempting to involve Georgia in war with Russia, Degnan 8 July dismissed claim as “conspiracy theories”. Head of ruling party Irakli Kobakhidze 9 July accused Degnan of “regrettable, offensive” remarks; U.S. State Dept 20 July condemned attacks on Degnan and embassy. In rare public statement, founder of ruling party and former PM Bidzina Ivanishvili 27 July echoed claims that “certain forces” were attempting to “drag Georgia” into war and also confirmed meeting with Degnan late March, which she previously denied; Degnan same day asserted there was “never any talk about Georgia’s involvement” in war. Pushing back on EU demands for “de-oligarchisation”, which ruling party sees as attempt to undermine Ivanishvili, PM Irakli Gharibashvili 18 July published letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen blaming European Parliament for “factual inaccuracies” about Ivanishvili. Adding to criticism, Kobakhidze 20 July said outgoing EU Ambassador Carl Harzell “played only a negative role in EU-Georgia relations”; EU 21 July said govt was “blaming others for own unfulfilled ambitions”.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

European leaders recognised country’s European “perspective” and conditioned candidacy status on reforms amid largest pro-EU rallies in decades. Following 3 March EU membership bid in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, EU member states 23 June recognised Georgia’s “European perspective”, conditioned candidate status on fulfilling “outstanding priorities” regarding political polarisation, judicial system, human rights and anti-corruption as per European Commission’s recommendation announced 17 June; PM Gharibashvili same day confirmed readiness “to implement all priorities”. Decision came as disappointment to many in capital Tbilisi, although not surprise; ahead of vote, European Parliament 9 June adopted critical resolution on Georgia, citing concerns about media and political environment. Gharibashvili 11 June said resolution was “full of lies” and “insulting”. Several Georgian NGOs 12 June criticised Gharibashvili in joint statement, saying he was downplaying importance of candidate status, which could feed into “Eurosceptic attitudes” and which echoed “Russian narratives”. President Zourabichvili 16 June tried mobilising public, all political parties and EU ambassadors to pro-Europe rally in Tbilisi; turnout was poor. Yet more than 100,000 people 20 June rallied in Tbilisi in support of candidacy status decision in Belgian capital Brussels, chanting: “I am Georgian, and therefore I am European”; demonstration was one of largest in country’s 31 years of independence.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Political tensions over war in Ukraine remained elevated, notably in breakaway South Ossetia, where de facto govt scheduled and then postponed referendum on accession to Russia. Political situation throughout month remained tense as opposition continued to accuse leadership of not showing sufficient support to Ukraine, including by aligning more with Western allies on key positions related to Russia’s invasion. Tbilisi city court 16 May sentenced head of opposition TV channel Nika Gvaramia to three-and-a-half years imprisonment for abuse of power; Gvaramia rejected all charges as politically motivated. Local NGOs same day said bail or other softer punishment could replace prison term, while international human rights groups Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch same day voiced concerns about ruling. In breakaway republic South Ossetia, following his defeat in second round of presidential elections 8 May, de facto President Anatoly Bibilov 14 May signed decree to hold referendum on joining Russia on 17 July. Election winner Alan Gagloev, who was inaugurated 24 May, reportedly learned about referendum from media reports; Gagloev can postpone vote for three months, but not recall decree. Gagloev 30 May issued decree that postpones referendum until consultations with Moscow are finalised; some senior Russian officials and important politicians during month publicly opposed referendum due to risks of destabilising Russia’s relations with Georgia. Situation along lines of separation with South Ossetia and breakaway Abkhazia remained calm; no reports during month of detentions or fence construction along lines of separation. Co-chairs of the Geneva International Discussions, UN Representative Cihan Sultanoğlu, Special Representative of Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Chairperson-in-Office Viorel Moșanu, and EU Special Representative Toivo Klaar 30 May began trip to region; visit follows cancelled March talks and accusations from Russian diplomats late April that West was blocking Geneva discussions.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Breakaway South Ossetia’s de facto leader, who has called for accession to Russia, competed in first round of presidential elections. Following late March announcement by de facto leader of breakaway South Ossetia Anatoly Bibilov of intention to join Russia after April de facto presidential elections, Georgian leaders raised concern over possible Russian annexation of breakaway South Ossetia. At first round of de facto presidential election in breakaway territory, opposition leader Alan Gagloyev 10 April came in first with 38%; Bibilov came in second with 34.95%. Run-off vote was supposed to be held on 28 April but de facto central electoral commission rescheduled it for 8 May. Gagloyev 18 April met Kremlin official in Russia’s capital Moscow ahead of run-off election. Meanwhile, Abkhaz authorities and leaders maintained insistence on independence of de facto state in contrast to South Ossetia’s de facto leadership; however, Abkhaz de facto opposition Patriotic Movement and some Russian politicians during month maintained that Abkhaz accession to Russian Federation remained possible. After de facto parliamentary elections in breakaway Abkhazia in March, de facto parliament 11 April elected Lasha Ashuba as speaker. State Security Service 18 April declared release of Georgian citizen Vladimer Kaniashvili, formerly detained in breakaway South Ossetia in Dec 2021. Meanwhile, family of imprisoned former President Mikheil Saakashvili late month demanded authorities permit Saakashvili to obtain urgent medical treatment in foreign country; family warned of protests if request not met by 2 May. Over dozen NGOs 28 April called for govt to ensure Saakashvili receives adequate medical treatment.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Georgians mobilised in support of Ukraine, as govt’s cautious stance on war provoked public anger and strained relations with President Zourabichvili. Since outbreak of war in Ukraine in late Feb, almost all segments of society vocalised support for and solidarity with Ukraine, including by collecting humanitarian aid, donating blood, raising funds for Ukrainian troops and providing essential services to refugees. Dozens of former military figures, including former defence minister, reportedly joined Ukrainian troops in defending country. Authorities 7 March reported arrival in country of over 30,000 Russians amid exodus following unprecedented Western sanctions; however, less than half stayed in country possibly due to discrimination and pressure from citizens and businesses. All banks introduced restrictions on transactions with Russia despite govt’s late Feb refusal to join Western sanctions. Govt’s refusal to criticise Russia for Ukraine’s invasion continued to fuel public anger. Statements from ruling Georgian Dream party, including that govt would not join Western sanctions, revived speculation about party’s pro-Russian stance; anti-govt protests, some numbering tens of thousands in front of parliament in capital Tbilisi, which started in late Feb continued throughout March. Govt’s stance also fuelled tensions between ruling party and President Zourabichvili. During 4 March address to parliament, Zourabichvili confirmed recent trips to Europe to meet French and EU presidents, noted it was first time ever she was so bluntly rebuffed by senior leadership in request for support; in response, leaders of Georgian Dream threatened to launch investigation on grounds that president is obliged to act in coordination with govt. FM David Zalkaliani 28 March announced start of European Commission’s consideration of Georgia’s EU membership bid. Meanwhile, International Criminal Court 10 March released arrest warrants for three high-level former de facto South Ossetian officials for crimes during 2008 war. De facto Abkhazia entity 12, 26 March held election for de facto parliament.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Georgians demonstrated in support of Ukraine following Russian invasion, while breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia expressed hope for recognition by Belarus. Parliament 1 Feb adopted resolution in support of Ukraine amid Russia’s military build-up around country (see Ukraine); resolution did not label Russia “aggressor” as demanded by opposition MPs. Following Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb, thousands of Georgians protested in solidarity with Ukraine. Protests increased after 25 Feb remarks of Georgian PM Irakli Gharibashvili about non-alliance with Western sanctions against Russia. Abkhazia 25 Feb announced its recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Ukraine’s breakaway regions. After Tbilisi City Court in Jan convicted founders of political party Lelo for fraud, parliament 15 Feb terminated mandates of three opposition parliamentarians, leaving Lelo party without leader at legislature. Belarusian President Lukashenko 6 Feb indicated possibility of recognising independence of breakaway states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia “as soon as I see [the need]”. Abkhazia’s de facto foreign ministry 8 Feb declared interest “in establishing official contacts with the Republic of Belarus”, while South Ossetia’s de facto leader Anatoly Bibilov 12 Feb argued “in moral terms, Belarus can recognize us”. Georgia’s foreign ministry 8 Feb insisted that “Belarus is committed to the fundamental principles of international law” and that such recognition “is not on the agenda”. De facto ruling party One Ossetia in breakaway South Ossetia 8 Feb nominated incumbent Anatoly Bibilov as candidate for April’s de facto presidential elections; Bibilov 26 Feb dismissed Defence Minister Ibragim Gassiyev for supporting opposition candidates in upcoming elections.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Relative calm returned to domestic politics amid criticism over controversial law. After former President Mikhail Saakashvili and his supporters agreed to cease hunger strike in Dec, political tensions eased off; hearings of Saakashvili’s corruption case continued during month. Leadership of main opposition party United National Movement (UNM) 10 Jan changed key positions, vacating party chair. Irakli Kobakhidze of ruling party Georgian Dream 17 Jan said ruling party consolidated as ever. UNM 31 Jan ended its boycott of parliament, seeking commission to investigate treatment of Saakashvili and warning of “fierce Spring protests”. President Zourabichvili 13 Jan signed off controversial law amendment that abolished State Inspector’s Office, govt body that had launched investigation into alleged violations of penitentiary office related to imprisonment of Saakashvili; move prompted criticism from UN country team and numerous Georgian NGOs as well as U.S., which 3 Jan said amendment “undermined government accountability” and “damaged Georgia’s aspirations for NATO and European Union membership”. Amid U.S.-Russia negotiations on European security architecture, FM David Zalkaliani 6 Jan spoke to U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman, insisting on Georgia’s freedom to “pursue an independent foreign and security policy”; FM 17-18 Jan visited NATO headquarters in Belgian capital Brussels to reiterate Georgian aspiration to join NATO. Meanwhile, head of the EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia and special representative of OSCE chairperson-in-office for South Caucasus 20 Jan jointly facilitated 104th meeting of Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism, format bringing together Georgian and Russian officials along with de facto authorities and foreign mediators; participants “focused on ongoing detention cases”, also discussed impact of “protracted closure of crossing points” while co-facilitators “noted with concern the increased number of detentions in recent weeks”. Following Dec violence around opposition rally in breakaway Abkhazia, de facto Prosecutor’s Office 8 Jan detained at least four individuals; opposition People’s and Patriotic Union of Abkhazia, group uniting several key opposition groups that led Dec protests and opposition lawmakers, 8 Jan condemned detentions, which it said are politically motivated.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Tensions between govt and opposition remained high, while breakaway Abkhazia’s political leadership faced new scandal and violent protest. Detained former President Mikheil Saakashvili 2 Dec attended second hearing on corruption case, which he rejected. Prosecutor 10 Dec began investigation into former Deputy Interior Minister Giorgi Lordkipanidze for allegedly helping Saakashvili’s illegal border crossing. Large-scale protest 21 Dec gathered in capital Tbilisi, and opposition party United National Movement chairman called for “mass hunger strike” until Saakhashvili’s release. Authorities 30 Dec moved Saakashvili from Gori military hospital to prison in Rustavi town. Opposition members 15 Dec held closed-door talks with ruling Georgian Dream party on constitutional amendments as part of EU-brokered April deal; President Zourabichvili 16 Dec hosted members of Georgian Dream and opposition, and called for political reconciliation. Following Oct scandal in breakaway Abkhazia, where former de facto Interior Minister Dmitry Dbar and police clashed with MPs and veterans over independence celebration, de facto President Aslan Bzhania 3 Dec reappointed Dmitry Dbar to head of de facto state security service. House searches of two alleged hosts of Facebook pages “insulting” officials 2-3 Dec resulted in street brawl, with de facto Deputy Tourism Minister Dato Kajaia reportedly firing gunshots several times, injuring one. De facto authorities 3 Dec detained Kajaia and two alleged social media hosts, and dismissed officials, including Kajaia and de facto interior minister. Bzhania 6 Dec appointed former Russian official Valter Butba as new de facto interior minister. After de facto president 20 Dec warned protesters reportedly rallying against pandemic response and energy crisis, demonstrators 21 Dec violently clashed with security forces. De facto president met twice with representatives of opposition 21 Dec to discuss demands; Prosecutor’s Office 23 Dec opened criminal investigation into protesters. Breakaway South Ossetia 1 Dec ratified agreement with Russia on dual citizenship; 16 Western states, including UK, U.S. and Canada, 3 Dec labelled agreement “step toward de facto annexation”. South Ossetia 1, 9 12, 23 and 27 Dec detained ten Georgian citizens for illegally crossing de facto border, and 3, 19 and 24 Dec released six.

Europe & Central Asia

Georgia

Imprisonment of former President Mikheil Saakashvili continued to fuel political tensions and protests, prompting international concern. Amid growing concerns over Saakashvili’s health, on hunger strike since early Oct, United National Movement (UNM) party 6 Nov organised protests demanding Saakashvili’s release in capital Tbilisi; at least 3,000 people reportedly gathered, authorities arrested dozens. Authorities 8 Nov transferred Saakashvili to prison clinic, which he next day claimed was enforced with physical violence; Saakashvili demanded transfer to civilian hospital. Tbilisi City Court 10 Nov began trial against Saakashvili; former president’s lawyer same day refused participation citing court ban on Saakashvili’s attendance, after which court adjourned trial until 29 Nov. Demonstrators 23 Nov gathered in Tbilisi to express solidarity with Saakashvili. Protesters 29 Nov rallied outside Tbilisi City Court; police used pepper spray to clear crowds and arrested 15 people. Situation prompted international concern. European Court of Human Rights 16 Nov ruled in interim decision that Saakashvili must end hunger strike and ordered authorities to provide “appropriate medical care”; U.S. and EU ambassadors to Georgia 19 Nov called for authorities to take steps to protect Saakashvili’s health. Saakashvili 19 Nov announced end to hunger strike if govt transferred him to civilian hospital; govt 20 Nov agreed to proposed transfer to special hospital. Ten opposition MPs early to mid-Nov started solidarity hunger strike, which 20 Nov ended with former president’s transfer to hospital. Meanwhile, de facto Abkhaz authorities 17 Nov appointed former Kremlin adviser Inal Ardzinba new de facto FM.

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