High representative warned of Bosnia’s possible break-up, while U.S. and Germany threatened sanctions in bid to forestall separatist moves. In report submitted to UN Security Council on 2 Nov, High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Christian Schmidt warned that Bosnia could face biggest “existential threat of the post-war period” and that “prospect of further division and conflict are very real”; Schmidt 6 Nov warned situation in Bosnia threatened unrest in region and that “there is a risk that the country will break apart”. UN Security Council 3 Nov unanimously renewed mandate of 600-strong EU-led peacekeeping force EUFOR to Bosnia and Herzegovina for one year. Hungarian PM Orban and FM Peter Szijjarto same day met Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik and Republika Srpska PM Radovan Viskovic to discuss “current situation in Bosnia”. Dodik 8 Nov met U.S. Deputy Assistant Sec State Gabriel Escobar, who said parties agreed “there will be no war”. German FM Heiko Maas 12 Nov threatened to suspend financial support for Bosnia and said Germany would consider “individual measures against those who question the territorial integrity” of country. Likewise, U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 16 Nov announced U.S. may impose sanctions for “moves to unilaterally withdraw from state-level institutions or otherwise destabilize” Dayton Peace Agreement; Dodik reacted saying: “We are sticking with our policy” and that Bosnian Serbs “no longer cared” about threats.

Republika Srpska leadership took steps to undermine federal institutions, sparking worst political crisis in 20 years and raising prospect of secession. In moves threatening collapse of 1995 Dayton Peace Accords, Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik 8 Oct said Bosnian Serb-run entity Republika Srpska would pull out of Bosnian armed forces, top judiciary body and tax administration; 12 Oct announced Bosnian judiciary, security and intelligence agencies would be banned from operating in Republika Srpska and “Serb only” institutions would replace them by end of Nov, announcing he was “openly working on the project of an independent Republika Srpska” but stopping short of calling for secession. Republika Srpska President Zeljka Cvijanovic signed law which came into force 13 Oct to reverse ban on genocide denial introduced by previous High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina Valentin Inzko in July. Dodik 14 Oct announced intention to unravel further Bosnian state institutions, including state court, prosecution, and constitutional court. Prosecutors subsequently launched investigation of Dodik for “undermining the constitutional order”. National Assembly of Republika Srpska 20 Oct adopted law creating independent medicine procurement agency, undermining federal Agency for Medical Equipment and Drugs; EU and U.S. same day expressed concerns over “divisive rhetoric” and called for respect of institutions. Bosnia’s Serb police 22 Oct held “anti-terrorist” drill in Mount Jahorina, outside capital Sarajevo and in Mrkonjic Grad in move seen by Bosnian Croat and Bosniak leadership as “a clear provocation”. EU and U.S. 29 Oct reaffirmed support for unified Bosnia and said they were working with Bosnian officials to solve political crisis.

International High Representative for Bosnia imposed ban on genocide denial, prompting Bosnian Serb representatives to announce boycott of state institutions. In one of his final acts in office, outgoing head of Bosnia’s Office of the High Representative (OHR), Austrian diplomat Valentin Inzko, 23 July imposed change in Bosnian criminal law, outlawing denial of 1995 Srebrenica genocide and imposing up to five years imprisonment for genocide denial and glorification of war criminals; OHR is mandated with implementation of 1995 Dayton peace agreement and empowered to enact laws and remove elected officials. Bosnian Serb leader and member of joint presidency Milorad Dodik same day rejected decree and reportedly threatened “dissolution” of Bosnia. Bosnian Serb political representatives from all political parties in Republika Srpska’s National Assembly 27 July began boycott of joint presidency, parliament and govt until withdrawal of decision. Republika Srpska parliament 30 July passed laws blocking approval of Inzko’s decision and permitting up to 15 years imprisonment for “violating the reputation of the Republika Srpska”. Previously, Russia in draft resolution co-sponsored by China called for UN Security Council to abolish OHR by July 2022; resolution 22 July failed to pass. Meanwhile, police 14 July arrested intelligence chief Osman Mehmedagic for alleged money laundering, abuse of office and document forgery; hundreds next day protested in front of State Prosecutor’s Office in capital Sarajevo in show of support for Mehmedagic.

International body implementing Dayton Peace Accord appointed new high representative. Steering Board of Peace Implementation Council, international body established to oversee implementation of 1995 Dayton Peace Accord, 27 May named German politician Christian Schmidt as high representative with term starting 1 August; Russia dissented from decision and its embassy same day said Schmidt would not be legitimate without UN Security Council approval; Republika Srpska also denied legitimacy of appointment.

Political tensions grew after memo promoting country’s partition circulated publicly. Leaked memo advocating partition of Bosnia and Herzegovina along ethnic lines 12 April surfaced in Slovenian press; memo allegedly originated from office of Slovenian PM Janez Janša and was reportedly sent to EU Council President Charles Michel in Feb; in response, Janša and Slovenian President Borut Pahor 12 April denied role in writing memo. EU delegation in Bosnia and Herzegovina 15 April said EU “unequivocally committed to the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity” of country. In response to leak, Bakir Izetbegović, leader of largest Bosniak political party, Party of Democratic Action, 20 April told media he was “not sure that there would be no war”. Leader of Republika Srpska entity Milorand Dodik same day announced initiative to formally discuss country’s future with Croat and Bosniak counterparts; proposal followed videos previous days from Dodik calling for “peaceful break-up” of country. International partners expressed opposition to leaked memo’s proposals. U.S. ambassador to country 28 April warned that “sanctions for destabilizing the[Dayton Peace Agreement]and for corruption are on the table” while German FM Heiko Mass 22 April said redrawing borders “is not only unrealistic, but it is dangerous to even initiate this discussion”.

Mostar held first elections in over decade. Mostar, city in south, 20 Dec held first elections in 12 years after EU, U.S. and UK-sponsored agreement in June broke deadlock between major Croat and Bosniak political parties, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA); central election commission revealed HDZ and SDA won largest vote shares of 35-member city council but fell short of outright majority.

Ruling parties lost ground in local elections as country marked 25 years since Dayton peace accord. Local elections 15 Nov took place amid low turnout, at around 50 per cent; three ruling parties – Bosnian Serb Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, Bosnjak Party of Democratic Action and Croat Democrat Union – lost some municipalities and key mayoral positions in largest cities while winning majority of municipalities across country. Gunman 9 Nov killed convicted war criminal Marko Radic in southern town of Mostar, suspect same day detained by police; Radic had been released from 21-year prison sentence in Dec 2018, following controversial sentence reduction by Croatian court of initial conviction by Bosnian state court in 2011 for crimes against humanity against Bosniaks in Mostar area. Tensions 25 Nov publicly surfaced between Valentin Inzko, high representative of international body overseeing Dayton peace accord, and Bosnian Serb chair of Bosnian presidency Milorad Dodik during UN roundtable event to mark 25th anniversary of peace accord; Inzko reportedly accused Dodik of abusing accord and denying past war crimes.

July saw progress towards organising local election in Mostar and meeting priorities for EU membership application. Following June signing of landmark deal on new statute to govern Mostar city, House of Representatives 7 July adopted amendments to Election Law agreement allowing local elections to proceed in Nov; EU delegation 8 July welcomed move. COVID-19 cases significantly increased in Republika Srpska and Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entities throughout July with over 300 new cases per day and total of 10,766 cases as of 29 July; 3,000 frontline medical workers 8 July went on strike in Sarajevo demanding pay supplement for overtime; govt 16 July decided to open borders unilaterally to EU citizens. Parliament 22 July agreed on rules of procedure for EU-Bosnia Stabilisation and Association Parliamentary Committee, ending five-year standstill and fulfilling one of 14 priorities for EU membership application.

Bosniak and Croat party leaders overcame longstanding political impasse to reach power-sharing agreement in Mostar, ending years of political paralysis in city. In line with 2010 Constitutional Court ruling and 2019 European Court of Human Rights ruling, Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) 17 June signed landmark deal on new statute to govern Mostar, ending decade-long dispute in southern city divided between Bosniaks and Croats and paving way for first local elections there since 2008, scheduled for Nov. Following detention of PM of Federation entity Fadil Novalic and two alleged accomplices in late May-early June as part of investigation into corruption charges over purchase of defective respirators from China in response to COVID-19 outbreak, opposition parliamentary deputies in Federation entity 1 June called for govt’s dismissal in no-confidence motion.

Central Election Commission (CIK) 23 May postponed local elections from 4 Oct to 15 Nov due to disagreement over 2020 budget; Mostar, southern town divided between Bosniaks and Croats that has not held vote since 2008, not included in decision as govt has yet to amend election law in line with 2010 Constitutional Court ruling and Oct 2019 European Court of Human Rights decision; Serbian member of presidency same day called CIK decision “illegitimate”. NGO Transparency International 21 May filed criminal complaint with prosecutor’s office against Milorad Dodik, Serb member of state trilateral presidency, after he told parliamentarians in Republika Srpska that he regularly listened into telephone conversations between opposition politicians; Dodik dismissed charge. Following transfer in April of $361mn in International Monetary Fund emergency assistance to support COVID-19 response, authorities reportedly unable to reach agreement on distribution of money between various levels of govt within Bosniak- and Croat-majority entity of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.