CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

New govt took steps to revive talks with ELN and other armed and criminal groups; Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic relations. President Petro 7 Aug took office, becoming first left-leaning president in country’s recent history. During inauguration speech, Petro promised to complete implementation of 2016 peace agreement with Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC); also called on armed and criminal groups to lay down their weapons, referring to govt’s “Total Peace” plan aimed at reviving negotiations with National Liberation Army (ELN) and demobilising other armed groups. Following this appeal, Petro 11 Aug sent high-level delegation to Cuba, where ELN negotiating team has remained in exile since talks broke down in 2019. Govt’s negotiating commission 12 Aug said it would “recognise the legitimacy of the rebel negotiators” and reinstate protocols signed in 2016, including protections for negotiators and roles for guarantor states Norway and Cuba; commission added that ELN said it will take “necessary steps to restart talks”. Petro 19 Aug suspended arrest and extradition warrants of ELN negotiators; defence ministry 25 Aug announced govt will suspend aerial bombing of armed groups; Petro 27 Aug proposed multilateral ceasefire to armed groups throughout country; interior minister 30 Aug submitted bill to Congress laying out peace initiative to pave way for negotiations with armed groups. In ELN’s stronghold Arauca department (north east), group 12 Aug announced release of nine individuals held captive; 18 Aug released six military personnel. Criminal organisation Gulf Clan 7 Aug announced unilateral ceasefire, expressed “goodwill to take part in exploratory talks”. Govt 12 Aug announced new military and police leadership, sending around 50 generals into retirement; reaction from military, broadly sceptical of president, was muted. Meanwhile, in Cauca department (south west), unknown assailants 28 Aug killed three members of indigenous community in Caldono municipality; suspected FARC dissidents 31 Aug kidnapped at least five minors, killed another near Argelia town. After incoming administration and Venezuela late-July agreed to reestablish relations, Petro 28 Aug sent new ambassador, Armando Benedetti, to Caracas, reversing outgoing President Duque’s confrontational policy toward Venezuela; Venezuelan President Maduro same day sent former FM Félix Plasencia as Venezuela's representative in Bogotá.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

President-elect Petro strengthened governing coalition and agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations with Venezuela, while Gulf Clan and other criminal organisations signalled willingness for talks. President-elect Petro throughout month worked to build broad coalition of political parties and figures ahead of his inauguration on 7 August. Notably, Petro 13, 19 July won support of Liberal party and Partido de la U, respectively, reaching historic majority in both chambers of congress. Meanwhile, incoming govt 28 July agreed with Venezuela to reestablish diplomatic relations. In joint declaration, Alvaro Leyva, designated FM under Petro, and Venezuelan FM Carlos Faria said both govts will appoint ambassadors to their respective capitals and work to strengthen security along their shared border. Incoming govt and criminal groups hinted at willingness for future negotiations. Petro 5 July told W Radio media outlet that his govt would work to achieve ceasefire with National Liberation Army (ELN) in order to resume peace talks and encourage dialogue with other armed groups. Gulf Clan and some smaller criminal organisations 21 July published open letter stating their willingness to negotiate ceasefire. In apparent bid by ELN to consolidate territorial control ahead of possible talks with govt, clashes between ELN and rival armed organisations increased in group’s major strongholds. Notably, clashes 9-14 July broke out between ELN and remnants of dissident Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) Fronts 10 and 28 in Tame municipality, Arauca department (north east); security forces 21 July clashed with ELN in Teorama municipality, Norte de Santander department (north east), leaving one soldier dead. Violence persisted elsewhere. Notably, unknown assailants 31 July shot dead five in La Union municipality, Valle del Cauca department; unknown gunmen same day killed four Indigenous people in Barbacoas municipality, Chocó department (along Pacific coast). Meanwhile, local media 2 July reported that former FARC chief negotiator and leader of Segunda Marquetalia dissident faction, Iván Márquez, had been wounded or killed in Venezuela; statements from Segunda Marquetalia 10 July indicated that Márquez had survived attack and remained in Venezuela. Defence Minister Diego Molano 15 July said security forces killed Iván Mordisco, leader of FARC’s former 1st Front, which never joined peace process.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Despite tense electoral atmosphere, all parties recognised presidential victory of Gustavo Petro, paving way for peaceful transfer of power 7 August; Truth Commission published long awaited report on decades-long conflict. In second round of presidential elections held 19 June, left-leaning candidate and former guerrilla Gustavo Petro won with 50.4 per cent of vote, defeating populist and businessman Rodolfo Hernández; victory marks first time leftist candidate has won presidential elections in recent history. Hernández and former president Iván Duque immediately recognised result, paving way for peaceful transfer of power on 7 August. U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken and UN Sec Gen António Guterres 20 June welcomed “strength” of Colombian democracy. National Liberation Army same day signalled willingness to advance talks with incoming govt. Petro 22 June announced he had spoken with Venezuelan govt “to open the borders and restore the full exercise of human rights at the border”. Amid fears of violence and concern about possible Petro victory, military 19 June deployed 320,000 troops to polling stations and other key infrastructure on election day, 20,000 more than in previous elections; Ombudsman’s office same day said elections proceeded “normally” notwithstanding “isolated incidents against security forces” in Caquetá (south) and Norte de Santander (north east) departments. Petro 14 June issued open letter to security forces in bid to win support among rank-and-file, notably suggesting improvements to social benefits and promotion opportunities; largest associations of retired military officers rejected proposals. Head of army Gen Eduardo Zapateiro 28 June announced resignation. Authorities 10 June confirmed death of Ricardo Abel Ayala Orrego, alias Cabuyo, head of 36th Front of dissidences of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in Antioquia department (north west), bringing number of dissident leaders killed in 2022 to five. Meanwhile, unknown assailants 27 June killed environmental leader and member of leftist coalition Pacto Histórico Juan David Ochoa in Granada municipality, Antioquia department (north west). Truth Commission 28 June published long-awaited report on conflict between authorities and FARC, said at least 450,664 people killed and 121,768 people disappeared between 1985-2018; recommended revised approach to drug policy, end to aerial fumigations that eradicate coca plants, and reforms to military.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Amid tense atmosphere, first round of presidential vote held; electoral violence could rise ahead of second round scheduled for 19 June. Colombians 29 May headed to polls amid tense electoral atmosphere. Leftist candidate Gustavo Petro won 40.32% of vote, falling short of 50% required to prevent second round; conservative candidate Rodolfo Hernández, who received 28.15%, will face Petro in run-off on 19 June. Attorney General’s Office same day processed 105 reports of possible electoral crimes and other disturbances. During election day, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents detonated three explosive devices in Caquetá (south) and Guaviare (south east) departments; same day killed polling jury in rural area of Vista Hermosa municipality, Meta department (centre). Also on election day, clashes erupted between FARC dissidents and National Liberation Army (ELN) in Normandía village, Arauca department (north). Earlier in month, criminal organisation Gulf Clan 5 May declared four-day armed strike in response to extradition 4 May of leader Dario Antonio Usuga, known as Otoniel, to U.S. Group ordered residents in areas under its influence to stay inside and “cease all social, economic, educational and cultural activities”. Strike affected at least 178 municipalities across 11 departments of northern Colombia; major city centres such as Sincelejo and Montería effectively shut down, illustrating group’s widespread and largely uncontested presence. Govt responded slowly, sending additional troops to affected regions three days after strike began. Ministry of defence reported five security forces killed 4-8 May, civil society said three civilians were killed. Chocó department (along Pacific coast), was among worst affected areas during and after strike; UN 17 May reported at least 14,600 people under forced confinement in southern Chocó in early May. Meanwhile, transitional justice mechanisms suffered setbacks. Military’s appointee to Truth Commission 2 May resigned, alleging that forthcoming final report will be biased; credible sources indicated he may have been pressured by sections of security forces to resign. Otoniel’s extradition marked significant loss for process, as it cut short his testimony before Special Jurisdiction for Peace Court (established under 2016 peace deal between govt and FARC to handle cases deriving from conflict).

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Armed groups launched attacks on security forces, social leaders remained at risk, and supporters of left-wing presidential hopeful Gustavo Petro faced intimidation. Armed group violence targeting security forces continued. Notably, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents 8 April allegedly ambushed military vehicle in Ituango municipality, Antioquia department (north west), killing three soldiers; 13 April allegedly killed four soldiers during attack in Meta department (centre). National Liberation Army (ELN), along with FARC dissidents, 30 April allegedly launched attack on army in Norte de Santander department (north east), which left two civilians and two military injured. Members of criminal organisation Clan del Golfo 19 April reportedly bombed military vehicle in Frontino town, Antioquia, killing six soldiers. Army 29 April killed six suspected FARC dissidents in Puerto Rondon town, Arauca department (north). UN Human Rights Office 13 April urged govt to launch investigation into military operation in Putumayo department (south), which reportedly killed four civilians 28 March. According to civil society group Indepaz, six massacres (murder of three or more persons) took place across country 2-24 April, killing 22 in total; Indepaz 24 April said at least ten social leaders and six ex-FARC combatants killed during April. Earlier in month, International Red Cross 1 April designated six non-international armed conflicts in Colombia: three among armed groups and three between armed groups and state. Following reported irregularities during March legislative elections, National Registrar 12 April said more than one million votes not tallied in initial count, raising concerns about forthcoming presidential vote scheduled in May-June in case of disputed election. Election-related incidents targeted left-wing candidates. Namely, VP candidate Francia Marquez, front-runner of left-wing presidential candidate Gustavo Petro, 4 April declared far-right group Aguilas Negras threatened her three times during month; unknown group 15 April also attacked Bogotá office of Colombia Humana, one of parties supporting Petro. Meanwhile, International Court of Justice 21 April ruled Colombian activities in Nicaraguan marine zone violated Nicaraguan sovereignty and ordered Colombia to stop interfering in Nicaragua’s waters.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Presidential primary and legislative elections saw strong results for party of left-wing presidential candidate Gustavo Petro; rural violence, notably targeting activists, persisted. Legislative and presidential primary elections 13 March took place without major security incidents; National Liberation Army (ELN) largely upheld 10-15 March ceasefire it had announced 4 March. Polls elevated former Bogotá Mayor Gustavo Petro, presidential hopeful for left-leaning Historical Pact coalition with 4.5 mn votes in primary elections, as strong contender for May presidential polls; during primary, Federico Gutiérrez gained 2.1 mn votes, making him chosen candidate for right-wing Team for Colombia coalition, while 723,000 voters chose Sergio Fajardo as candidate for Center Hope coalition. In Senate, final tally, which was confirmed in late March, allocated Historical Pact 20 seats and Liberal and Conservative Parties 15 seats each. EU electoral mission 15 March reported evidence of vote-buying and candidate intimidation in run-up to polls, particularly in case of 16 newly created congressional seats for victims, where a number of traditional parties were accused by civil society observers of providing illegal financing to capture seats. Organization of American States 20 March called on electoral authorities to investigate alleged fraud. According to civil society group Indepaz, nine massacres (murder of three or more persons) took place across country 1-28 March, killing 36 in total; Indepaz 29 March said at least 15 social leaders killed during March, including indigenous leader José Miller Correa, who was found dead outside of Popayán town, Cauca department. Meanwhile, several other violent incidents reported during month. Notably, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents 26 March attacked police station in capital Bogotá using explosives, killing two children and injuring 39 persons. Army 28 March killed 11 members of FARC dissident faction Segunda Marquetalia during clash in Puerto Leguizamo municipality (Putumayo province); according to rights groups, four civilians were among those killed, including Quechua Governor Pablo Panduro.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Attacks against security forces continued across country, notably along Pacific coast and Venezuelan border; some senior and retired military officials faced accusations of links with armed groups. Police and soldiers faced attacks throughout month, notably in Norte de Santander and Cauca departments, wounding dozens. In Meta department (south), motorcycle bomb 9 Feb exploded in front of Infantry Battalion N.21 “Batalla Pantano de Vargas” in Granada municipality, killing two; security forces killed 15 Clan del Golfo members during raid in Ituango municipality. In Pacific Coast, UN 2 Feb reported 18,000 forcibly confined in Nariño’s El Charco municipality; said another 20,000 later displaced and confined in Nariño’s Triángulo Telembí, fluvial area contested between competing factions of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissidents and local criminal groups. Armed men 15 Feb attacked convoy of Mayra Goana, candidate for Congress’ designated seats for victims, in Catatumbo region (east). Army 24 Feb launched military operation in Arauca department (north) killing at least 23 FARC dissidents. Violence along Venezuela-Colombia border ran high; Venezuelan security forces targeted Colombian criminal groups and FARC dissidents, 14 Feb and 20 Feb said Colombian criminal groups had planted explosives prompting them to deactivate landmines along border. Some senior military officials accused of links with armed groups. Notably, magazine Cambio 11 Feb reported General Jorge Hernando Herrera allied with criminal group Los Pocillos in combating FARC dissident front Carlos Patiño; Blu Radio 15 Feb revealed attorney general’s case against retired General Leonardo Alfonso Barrero who allegedly worked with La Cordillera, local franchise of Clan del Golfo post-paramilitary group in Northern Nariño (south). National Strike Committee and United Workers’ Union 9 Feb called for 3 March peaceful protests against govt; National Liberation Army 23-26 Feb conducted 72-hour “armed” strike against President Duque’s govt, which saw series of incidents notably in eastern Santander province where road explosion between Socorro and San Gil municipalities left eight people injured. According to civil society group Indepaz, six massacres (murder of three or more persons) took place across country 2-11 Feb, killing 18 in total; Indepaz 23 Feb said at least 12 social leaders killed during Feb.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Violence rose across country, with numerous attacks on security forces and increased insecurity at border with Venezuela. Leftist guerrilla National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident group of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) accused of launching attacks 27 Jan on security forces in Cesar, Norte de Santander, Cauca, Valle del Cauca and Antioquia departments, leaving one military dead and dozens injured; armed men same day burnt two UN vehicles in Guaviare department (south east). In east, confrontations between ELN and dissident FARC’s 10th Front early Jan erupted in violation of previous non-aggression agreement. Violence rose over control of illegal economies, causing up to 50 deaths; Attorney General’s office 5 Jan reported recovering 27 corpses presumably linked to 10th Front in Fortul, Saravena and Arauquita municipalities in Arauca department and in Cubará municipality, Boyacá department. Clashes 10-14 Jan in Venezuela’s Apure region and Colombia’s Vichada department led President Duque 4 Jan to deploy two military brigades to Arauca, prompting mutual accusations from ELN and 10th Front of collaboration with military; Venezuela 16 Jan announced deployment of military at border with Colombia. Violence however persisted; car bomb attributed to 10th Front 19 Jan killed one and wounded five in Saravena city (Arauca). UN 18 Jan reported over 1,500 displaced by violence during month; UN Envoy to Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu 21 Jan asked UN Security Council to strengthen state presence at border with Venezuela. Meanwhile, violent attacks persisted elsewhere. Along Pacific coast in Valle del Cauca, ELN 7 Jan injured 13 members of police’s anti-riot unit in Cali city; FARC dissidents 24 Jan killed leader of National Indigenous Guard in Buenos Aires municipality; clashes between criminal organisation Clan del Golfo and ELN 28 Jan prompted mass displacement in Bajo Calima village. According to civil society group Indepaz 13 massacres (murder of three or more persons) took place across country 3-28 Jan, killing 39 in total; Indepaz 31 Jan said at least 14 social leaders killed during Jan. In lead-up to presidential elections set for May 2022, former Congresswoman and guerrilla hostage Ingrid Betancourt 18 Jan announced candidacy; presidential campaigns 29 Jan officially started.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

FARC dissident faction suffered new setback in neighbouring Venezuela, and violence continued notably along Pacific coast. Two senior commanders of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident faction Segunda Marquetalia, Henry Castellanos (alias Romaña) and Hernán Darío Velásquez (alias El Paisa), killed 5 Dec in Venezuela’s Apure state; local media including Colombian news outlet Caracol in following days said rival FARC dissident 10th Front suspected of carrying out attacks, though details remain unclear; killings strike symbolic blow to Segunda Marquetalia, which last May lost senior commander Jesús Santrich. In Norte de Santander department near Venezuelan border, bomb blasts 14 Dec killed two police officers at airport in Cúcuta city; one suspected suicide bomber also killed. Defence Minister Diego Molano immediately condemned “terrorist” act, said it bore hallmark of FARC dissident groups and National Liberation Army (ELN), though neither claimed responsibility. Also in Norte de Santander, suspected members of 33rd FARC Dissident Front early Dec clashed with other armed groups and 5 Dec reportedly threw grenade at voting station for election of municipal youth council in Tibú municipality, injuring three soldiers and two civilians. Meanwhile, fighting continued along Pacific coast. In Cauca department, FARC dissident faction Carlos Patiño Front 6 Dec announced armed strike in parts of Argelia municipality in attempt to cement territorial control, amid competition with Segunda Marquetalia and ELN for control of drug trafficking routes; 14 Dec lifted strike, but demanded change in military command in area. Indigenous communities from across Cauca 10 Dec marched to Cali, main city of Pacific coast, to protest rising levels of violence and lack of state response. Army 29 Dec said it had found corpses of seven men in rural area of Putumayo department (south), blamed FARC dissidents. Justice Minister Wilson Ruiz 2 Dec announced possible resumption of aerial fumigation of coca crops in Feb 2022; move follows National Environmental Licensing Agency’s approval of govt’s environmental impact plan for spraying, one of several pending conditions set in 2017 by Constitutional Court to restart aerial fumigation. Country’s Registrar 22 Dec released official list of candidates for presidential and congressional elections scheduled to begin 13 March.

Latin America & Caribbean

Colombia

Violence continued along Pacific Coast, fuelling mass displacement and forced confinement. Fighting between rival local armed groups 6-7 Nov forced 173 families to flee port city of Buenaventura, Valle del Cauca department; UN 11 Nov reported others remained confined within their neighbourhoods. In Nariño department, fighting between Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident factions 11 Nov displaced at least 110 people from Los Limones neighbourhood in Olaya Herrera municipality, while clashes between FARC dissidents and National Liberation Army (ELN) that week reportedly displaced 85 families from Indigenous reserves in Ricaurte municipality. Also in Nariño, thousands of coca growers late Oct-early Nov demonstrated for several days in a row to protest coca crop eradication programmes around Iscuandé municipality. Meanwhile, clashes between Gulf Clan, one of country’s main criminal organisations, and state forces reported in Antioquia and Chocó departments: suspected Gulf Clan members 7 Nov ambushed military unit near Ituango municipality, Antioquia, killing four soldiers, and 10 Nov reportedly killed two police officers in Bahia Solano municipality, Chocó. Armed clashes between state forces and FARC dissidents, notably Second Marquetalia and Carlos Patiño Front, also reported late Oct-early Nov around Argelia municipality in Cauca department. Special Jurisdiction for Peace (established under 2016 peace deal between govt and FARC to handle cases deriving from conflict) 5 Nov added indictment of “enslavement” in charges against former FARC commanders in case investigating practice of kidnapping; FARC leadership, which has accepted all other charges in case, including crimes against humanity, 7 Nov rejected enslavement charge. On fifth anniversary of peace agreement, U.S. State Dept 23 Nov announced intent to revoke designation of FARC as terrorist group, while UN Sec-Gen Antonio Guterres 23-24 Nov visited Colombia, warned that “guaranteeing social leaders’ and ex-combatants’ security is vital to consolidate peace”. President Duque 25 Nov said Bogotá had received formal request from U.S. to extradite Dairo Antonio Úsuga, alias Otoniel, leader of country’s largest criminal organisation who was detained in Oct.

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