Colombia and Venezuela restored diplomatic relations, Mexico dialogue remained on hold, and divisions within opposition over question of primaries to elect candidate for 2024 elections persisted. After govt and incoming Colombian administration late-July agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations, Colombian President Petro 28 Aug sent new ambassador, Armando Benedetti, to Caracas, reversing outgoing Colombian President Duque’s confrontational policy toward Venezuela; President Maduro same day sent former FM Félix Plasencia as Venezuela's representative in Bogotá. Meanwhile, opposition leader Juan Guaidó 12 Aug claimed there had been “informal meetings” between opposition leadership and Petro’s govt, but said he wished Petro had not so quickly recognised Maduro’s govt, which he accused of “harbouring terrorism”. Amid restoration of relations, govt 4 Aug announced it would seek extradition of leading opposition politician Julio Borges from Colombia, whom Caracas accuses of orchestrating Aug 2018 drone explosion near Maduro during military parade. Court same day sentenced Borges’ Primero Justicia party member, Juan Requesens, to eight years in prison for involvement in same drone attack; 16 others received up to 30 years. Govt’s chief negotiator Jorge Rodríguez 9 Aug said talks with opposition could not resume until Venezuelan cargo plane, held in Argentina since early-June at Washington’s request because of suspected links to Iranian Revolutionary Guard (which remains on U.S.’ terrorism blacklist), was returned; meanwhile, opposition’s Chief Negotiator Gerardo Blyde 15 Aug said there was “very high probability” that formal Mexico talks between govt and opposition would soon resume. Opposition alliance Unitary Platform remained divided over issue of primaries to select candidate for 2024 presidential election; hardliners, including Leopoldo López of Voluntad Popular, want primaries held in early 2023, while moderates prefer end of next year, and some accuse rivals of being more interested in settling issue of opposition leadership than participating in 2024 elections.

Govt agreed to reestablish diplomatic ties with Colombia following election of Gustavo Petro as president, Mexico talks remained on hold, and opposition parties began preparations for “open primaries” ahead of 2024 elections. Govt and incoming Colombian administration 28 July agreed to reestablish diplomatic relations. In joint declaration, FM Carlos Faria and Alvaro Leyva, Colombia’s designated foreign minister under incoming President Petro, said both govts will appoint ambassadors to their respective capitals and work to strengthen security along their shared border. Elsewhere on diplomatic front, top govt official 25 July insisted that if U.S. wanted access to Venezuelan oil and gas, it would have to “negotiate [directly] with the Government”. FM Faria 4 July met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, where they announced further cooperation to skirt U.S. sanctions and on investment projects. Mexico talks between govt and opposition remained suspended. Meanwhile, some opposition political parties geared up for “open primaries” announced in June by opposition alliance Unitary Platform to select candidate for 2024 presidential election. Notably, Primero Justicia party (Unitary Platform member) 9 July held internal elections for over 12,000 national, regional, municipal and parish representatives, while opposition figure Henri Falcón 18 July announced his newly created Movimiento party will participate in Unitary Platform’s primaries. Security forces 4-7 July arrested trade union activists and members of left-wing anti-Maduro party Bandera Roja, charging five of them under anti-terrorist and organised crime laws. Local human rights organisation Provea 13 July said arrests followed same pattern of harassment of civil society activists documented by UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in report published late June. After delegation led by U.S. President Biden’s chief hostage negotiator late June failed to secure release of two U.S. hostages, media outlet Associated Press 13 July gave details of three other unreported cases of U.S. citizens arrested in Venezuela this year who are still detained. All three – two of whom were detained after high-level U.S. delegation visited Caracas in March – were accused of illegally entering country from Colombia.

Talks about resumption of Mexico dialogue continued, govt supporters attacked opposition leader Juan Guaidó, and President Maduro embarked on international tour to strengthen foreign relations. While U.S. govt and Venezuelan opposition continued to insist during month that resumption of suspended Mexico talks between govt and opposition was imminent, series of violent attacks against opposition leader Juan Guaidó during country tour cast doubt. Chavista militants 4 June tried to prevent Guaidó from speaking in Maracaibo municipality by throwing chairs at organisers; 11 June forced Guaidó to flee meeting in Cojedes state. U.S. Sec of State Antony Blinken 12 June and European External Action Service 15 June condemned violence. In slight easing of sanctions, U.S. State Department reportedly sent letters to European oil companies Eni and Repsol early June allowing export of sanctioned Venezuelan oil to Europe for first time in two years, in apparent move to collect billions in unpaid debt owed by govt. U.S. Treasury Department 17 June removed Carlos Malpica Flores, former national treasurer and nephew of first lady, from U.S. sanctions list. Internationally, U.S. barred Venezuela, along with Nicaragua and Cuba, from 6-10 June Americas Summit in Los Angeles, defying pressure from Mexican President López Obrador, who subsequently boycotted event. U.S. President Biden 8 June held phone conversation with opposition leader Guaidó, reaffirmed support for interim leader and need for dialogue despite not inviting him to summit. U.S. delegation 27 June visited capital Caracas in attempt to secure release of detained Americans; effort failed and delegation left country on 30 June. In apparent bid to show he is not internationally isolated, Maduro 7 June embarked on trip to Turkey, Iran, Algeria, Kuwait and Qatar. In Iran, Maduro 11 June signed 20-year cooperation plan with govt. Venezuelan govt 4 June announced it would hold “counter-summit on 28-29 June” in San Cristobal city near Colombian border to reject Madrid NATO summit, which focused on Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Colombia’s President-elect Gustavo Petro 22 June spoke with Maduro about his commitment to reopen shared border, closed since 2015; Maduro reaffirmed willingness to “re-establish normalcy” at border.

Prospects for revival of Mexico talks between govt and opposition continued to stall, and Unitary Platform took steps to unify opposition ahead of 2024 elections. To encourage resumption of suspended Mexico talks between govt and opposition, U.S. officials 17 May indicated Washington would authorise U.S. oil company Chevron Corp to negotiate directly with Maduro govt and reportedly offered to lift sanctions against relative of First Lady Cilia Flores; leaders of both sides’ negotiating teams, govt’s representative Jorge Rodríguez and Unitary Platform’s Gerardo Blyde, same day met to discuss possible return to negotiations. However, Rodríguez 19 May insisted that businessman and Maduro’s close collaborator Alex Saab, who is awaiting trial on money-laundering charges in U.S., should participate in talks. U.S. president’s top Latin America adviser Juan González 19 May said further easing of sanctions, which would allow foreign oil companies to resume production and sell on U.S. market, depended on progress toward free and fair elections in Venezuela; González added that Maduro govt would not be able to profit from oil sales and that such measures would be reversed if it reneged on commitments. News of potential sanctions relief prompted hostile response from some of Venezuelan opposition’s allies in U.S. Congress, including Senate foreign relations chair Bob Menendez; U.S. Treasury Department 27 May renewed Chevron’s licence under same restricted conditions, seemingly quashing hopes of talks resumption. Meanwhile, opposition group Unitary Platform, under pressure from Washington, took steps toward greater unity during meeting in Panama. In statement published 16 May, it announced decision to appoint former National Assembly president Omar Barboza as coordinator, introduce new decision-making process and hold primaries, possibly in early 2023, to choose presidential candidate for 2024 elections; also called for “deep consultation process with the whole country” to determine procedure for primaries. Issues such as participation in primaries of Venezuelans abroad and whether govt-dominated electoral authority should be in charge of organising primary vote still needed to be resolved by end of month. Maduro, who has consolidated political control over country and Chavista movement, 16 May reshuffled cabinet. Notably, former ambassador to Moscow Carlos Faría replaced Foreign Minister Félix Plasencia.

President Maduro met with civil society platform, Mexico talks with opposition remained on hold, and two governments renewed diplomatic engagement with authorities. President Maduro 5 April received leading members of Foro Cívico civil society platform and – separately – leaders of moderate opposition Alianza Democrática; decision to meet harshly criticised by some as lending legitimacy to Maduro, questioned by some of Foro’s own members. Foro Cívico leaders insisted they did not have time to seek approval from associated organisations and therefore attended as “citizens”. Letter addressed to U.S. administration published 14 April, which called for more flexible approach to sanctions and contained some signatories linked to Foro Cívico, provoked further hostility. Meanwhile, Mexico talks still on hold by end of the month. Despite apparent disagreements within ruling party over appointment of new slimmed-down Supreme Court, ruling party-controlled National Assembly 26 April proceeded with nominations, named 20 overwhelmingly pro-govt magistrates to country’s Supreme Court (TSJ), dashing hopes on part of some in opposition for a more balanced court; TSJ judges 27 April appointed U.S.-sanctioned Gladys Gutiérrez as Court’s new president. Non-governmental organisation Foro Penal 29 April denounced detention of 240 political prisoners. International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan 1 April agreed to set up office in capital Caracas to resume in-country investigation into alleged crimes against humanity in Venezuela since Feb 2014; 20 April announced he would seek court’s authorisation to continue investigation, despite govt’s request for deferral. Meanwhile, strategy adopted by U.S. and allies to diplomatically isolate Maduro’s govt appeared to be losing momentum. Notably, Argentina’s President Alberto Fernández 18 April announced plans to restore full diplomatic relations, while Portugal’s next head of mission in Caracas will seek accreditation as ambassador, according to diplomatic sources, breaking with EU members’ policy of keeping relations at level of chargés d’affaires.

Following Russia’s late-Feb invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials and President Maduro’s govt held first bilateral talks in years; Mexico dialogue between authorities and opposition remained on hold. In unexpected move and for first time since 2016, senior U.S. officials 5 March travelled to capital Caracas to meet President Maduro’s govt as trip reportedly focused on assessing Maduro’s willingness to resume negotiations and release U.S. prisoners in exchange for sanctions’ relief. Following visit, Venezuelan authorities 8 March released two U.S citizens, including one of six oil executives arrested in 2017. While some U.S. officials insisted visit was primarily about prisoners’ release, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki 7 March said issue of “energy security” and need to find alternative energy sources ahead of U.S. 8 March ban on imports of Russian oil was raised. U.S. officials 10 March said any sanction relief would depend on release of more jailed U.S citizens and setting firm date for resuming negotiations with opposition. Meanwhile, authorities signalled continued ties to key ally Russia during month: notably, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Maduro 1 March held call during which they discussed increasing strategic partnership between two countries; VP Delcy Rodriguez and Russian FM Sergei Lavrov 10 March also met in Turkey to review countries’ strategic alliance and discuss “complex” international situation. While dialogue with opposition remained on hold, govt 15 March said it was launching « inclusive » national dialogue and seeking meetings with political and business groups and unions so they could join negotiations alongside opposition politicians. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó throughout month continued to push for Mexico talks to resume, while Maduro’s top negotiator, National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, 18 March said talks “had fulfilled their objectives”. Rodríguez 18 March accused Guaidó and other members of Voluntad Popular party of links to an alleged drug trafficker, said govt would no longer talk to Guaidó. UN fact-finding mission on Venezuela 18 March submitted its latest report to UN Human Rights Council, concluding govt’s effort to investigate and prosecute perpetrators of crimes remained insufficient.

Dialogue initiative between authorities and opposition in Mexico City remained stalled, while low-level violence persisted at Colombian border. Supporters of opposition leader Juan Guaidó 12 Feb held peaceful gathering to reject authoritarian rule, turned up in small numbers with mostly members of Guaidó’s Voluntad Popular party and representatives from minor parties. Mexico talks between opposition and authorities remained stalled; International Contact Group (with among others Chile, Ecuador, EU, France, Germany and Spain) 4 Feb urged all parties to resume dialogue. U.S., EU and 19 other countries 16 Feb seconded dialogue request, highlighting willingness to review sanctions policies. U.S. court 16 Feb revealed Maduro’s close collaborator Colombian businessman Alex Saab was cooperating source for U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration from 2018 and provided agents with information about bribes he paid to Venezuelan officials; Maduro has frequently demanded Saab’s release, saying he is Venezuelan diplomat whose presence is needed for Mexico talks. After govt late Jan began process of slimming down Supreme Court from 32 to 20 members, 2 Feb installed parliamentary committee to appoint new justices; following discussion with some opposition and civil society members, govt accepted five of their nominations and extended nomination period until 21 Feb. Low-intensity conflict continued in Apure state at Colombian border: Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino 11 Feb said military operations killed at least nine illegal armed groups members; shoot-out between National Liberation Army and dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia known as 10th Front 7 Feb killed one civilian in El Amparo. Antipersonnel mines placed by warring guerrilla groups in rural areas first week of Feb killed eight civilians, also in Apure. EU election observer mission 22 Feb presented final report on 21 Nov elections in Belgian capital Brussels, having failed to get permission to present it in Caracas; said election conditions had improved, proposed 23 recommendations for changes. After Russian deputy PM Yuri Borisov 16 Feb visited capital Caracas, Maduro expressed full support for Russian invasion of Ukraine, promised “powerful military cooperation” between two countries. Venezuela 24 Feb reopened border with Brazil which had been closed for two years due to COVID-19 crisis.

Opposition gained Barinas state, ruling socialist stronghold, in elections rerun, govt quashed attempt to trigger recall referendum against President Maduro, and violence surged at Colombian border. In Barinas (south west), opposition candidate Sergio Garrido 9 Jan secured victory with 55% of vote in rerun of gubernatorial elections, adding to three governorships previously gained by opposition in Nov elections against 19 for ruling party; result reflects govt’s loss of support in rural heartland, holds symbolic significance as state had been run by late President Hugo Chávez’s family since 1998. Opposition alliance 4 Jan extended “interim presidency” of former President of National Assembly and opposition leader Juan Guaidó but drastically cut accompanying bureaucratic structure. National Electoral Council (CNE) 17 Jan approved three petitions to trigger presidential recall referendum (as per constitutional provisions allowing such poll, subject to support of 20% of electorate, when president’s mandate reaches mid-term). Council 22 Jan however imposed impracticable conditions on signature collection, requesting all 4.2mn signatures be collected in one day on 26 Jan; in response, opposition figures Nicmer Evans and César Perez Vivas same day requested Supreme Tribunal to review CNE’s decision, said they would use all legal means to get referendum. CNE 27 Jan said Maduro recall could not move ahead as opponents had only gathered over 42,000 signatures. Juan Guaidó 23 Jan called for Venezuelans to organise peaceful marches on 12 Feb to demand free and fair presidential elections. Fighting between National Liberation Army guerrilla group and dissident faction of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia known as 10th Front flared on Colombian border (see Colombia). Authorities 16 Jan announced fresh military operation in Venezuela’s Apure state to “strengthen the territorial defence system” and fight Colombian armed groups. International Criminal Court 19 Jan granted authorities three-month extension to inform court about investigation into alleged crimes against humanity committed in country notably during crackdown on anti-govt protests in April-July 2017.

Political stalemate persisted as opposition remained in disarray and electoral dispute continued over recent polls in Barinas state. Following Nov win of ruling PSUV party in regional and local elections, protests 2 Dec erupted in Santa Rosalía municipality, Portuguesa state (south west) in response to disputed local election results; opposition supporters decried election fraud and demanded new elections after National Electoral Council (CNE) declared victory for ruling party candidate. Govt 3 Dec reportedly denied visa extension for EU observers, requiring them to leave on 5 Dec instead of 13 Dec as planned. In Barinas (south west), voters 4 Dec denounced Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate election results and retroactively disqualify opposition candidate Freddy Superlano from participating in new elections scheduled for 9 Jan; ruling party 5 Dec named former FM Jorge Arreaza candidate. CNE 22 Dec named six civil organisations as national observers for monitoring electoral transparency. Senior member and foreign affairs chief of opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s interim govt Julio Borges 5 Dec resigned and called for dismantling of interim govt; repeated previous calls for overseas assets currently held in opposition’s name to be transferred to trust, said current management “a scandal” and that they were being used for “personal ends”. Meanwhile, Guaidó-led opposition leadership continued to resist calls for greater transparency, insisted “interim govt” must remain until free and fair presidential elections. U.S. Envoy Roger Carstens 8-11 Dec visited country to meet President Maduro and discuss welfare of detained U.S. nationals, including six jailed oil executives with no apparent breakthrough; Maduro continued to demand release of close collaborator Colombian businessman Alex Saab, recently extradited to U.S. on money-laundering charges. After govt launched legal action against Bank of England to regain $1bn in gold reserves, UK Supreme Court 20 Dec said UK “unequivocally recognised opposition leader Juan Guaidó as president” rather than Maduro and referred case back to commercial court. Head of govt-led National Assembly 22 Dec called for session to discuss modifications to justice system, including reducing number of Supreme Court judges. Opposition-led National Assembly 27 Dec renewed its term and Guaidó’s mandate as “interim president” for one more year.

Ruling party secured sweeping victory in regional and local elections amid low turnout and international concerns over irregularities, and International Criminal Court opened formal investigation into crimes against humanity in Venezuela. In 21 Nov regional and local elections, ruling United Socialist Party won at least 19 out of 23 governor seats. In Barinas state, Supreme Court’s electoral branch 29 Nov retroactively disqualified opposition candidate Freddy Superlano, who was slightly leading in vote count, and ordered fresh election in Jan, sparking outcry. Results brought into sharp relief weakness and lack of unity of opposition, which participated in elections for first time since 2017; turnout of 41.8% also highlighted widespread voter disaffection. Violent incidents reported on election day in San Francisco town (Zulia state): notably, ruling party supporters known as colectivos reportedly killed man and injured two other people outside voting centre. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 22 Nov said elections “grossly skewed”, while Isabel Santos, EU observation mission’s chief observer, next day flagged irregularities including “arbitrary bans on candidates” and uneven playing field despite “better conditions” than in previous elections; in response, President Maduro 28 Nov called EU observers “enemies” and “spies”. After withdrawing from Mexico talks with opposition in Oct, Maduro 21 Nov said negotiations would not resume until Washington answered for “kidnapping” of govt envoy Alex Saab, who was extradited to U.S. by Cape Verde in Oct on money-laundering charges. After three-day visit to Venezuela, International Criminal Court (ICC)’s Prosecutor Karim Khan 3 Nov announced formal investigation into crimes against humanity committed in country since April 2017, including allegations of extrajudicial killings and torture by security forces during crackdown on anti-govt protests in April-July 2017; move marks first time Latin American country faces formal ICC scrutiny for possible crimes against humanity. Maduro immediately said his govt disagreed with decision but would collaborate with ICC; Maduro and Khan same day signed memorandum of understanding stipulating govt would “adopt all necessary measures” to ensure justice was done, and ICC would provide “support and active engagement”.