Amid growing economic hardship, President Sisi reshuffled cabinet and Central Bank governor resigned; govt forces engaged in days-long clashes with Islamic State-affiliated militants near Suez Canal in Sinai Peninsula. Govt 11 Aug approved plan to ration electricity in order to save more natural gas for export amid severe shortage of foreign currency. Sisi 13 Aug replaced 13 ministers, including tourism portfolio, citing need to improve his administration’s performance, and Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer 17 Aug resigned. Issue of political prisoners continued to impede preparations for Sisi-sponsored national dialogue. National dialogue board of trustee member, Amr Hashem Rabie, 3 Aug called for more prisoner releases to “create an atmosphere of trust between the regime and activists”; another board member, Negad El Borai, 10 Aug presented Dialogue Coordinator Diaa Rashwan with letter from 19 rights defenders warning that dialogue cannot succeed unless authorities first commit to upholding human rights. In response, Rashwan 12 Aug reiterated that over 700 prisoners have been released or given presidential pardon since Sisi called for national dialogue in April. Amid continued violence in North and Central Sinai, Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) moved toward Suez Canal. Govt forces and Sinai Tribal Union fighters on one hand, and SP operatives on the other, 11 Aug exchanged fire around Jilbana village (North Sinai), about 20km east of Suez Canal. In following days, clashes reportedly reached as close as 5km from canal and left several dead, with army forces blocking Al-Arish-Al-Qantara highway, while SP operatives planted mines around Jilbana to hinder govt forces’ advance. Situation in area unclear in late Aug. Meanwhile, NGO Human Rights Watch 30 Aug urged authorities to investigate videos circulating on social media platforms since July and apparently showing military and pro-govt militias committing extrajudicial executions of suspected SP militants in North Sinai.

Govt-sponsored national dialogue kicked off amid ongoing crackdown on dissent, and security situation remained precarious in Sinai Peninsula. During first meeting of general secretariat for national dialogue, participants 5 July agreed to open dialogue to all political and social forces, except for individuals linked to outlawed Muslim Brotherhood who have committed violent crimes, and to exclude possible constitutional amendments from discussions. Largest opposition coalition Civil Democratic Movement reportedly divided over participation in national dialogue, with one wing calling for boycott until authorities respond to some key demands, notably release of political prisoners. Civil Society continued to doubt commitment to reform, with Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies 19 July saying national dialogue “neither aims to genuinely start a process of reform nor address the human rights crisis”. In Sinai Peninsula, military and allied tribal militias continued to engage in firefights with Islamic State (ISIS) militants, who launched several explosive attacks. Army supported by tribal fighters 1 and 27 July detained two ISIS-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) local commanders in Bir al-Abd region; 6, 13 and 18 July killed at least nine SP operatives in Maghara and Rafah regions. Explosive device attacks around 2-4 July killed three tribal fighters west of Rafah town and seven soldiers in Maghara region. SP overnight 22-23 July reportedly launched ambush involving suicide attack on police convoy in Al-Masa’id region, north of Al-Arish town; several policemen reportedly wounded. Exchange of fire south of Bir al-Abd town late July made casualties on both sides. Meanwhile, U.S. President Biden 16 July visited Egypt for first meeting with President Sisi; final communique only briefly mentioned human rights. Arabic media outlets mid-July reported that Ethiopia had started third filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which could reignite tensions with Cairo and Sudan.

Preparations for national dialogue moved forward, and fighting between security forces and Islamic State militants continued in Sinai Peninsula. Authorities 8 June appointed journalist and head of State Information Service Diaa Rashwan as general coordinator of President Sisi-sponsored national dialogue. Move sparked controversy among opposition forces, with coalition of seven political parties Civil Democratic Movement 10 June denouncing “unilateral” appointment, saying it does not augur well for fair and effective dialogue process. Rashwan later in month held consultations with political, economic and social actors with a view to launching formal dialogue in July. As part of appeasement efforts ahead of dialogue, authorities 13 June released group of 15 political prisoners, adding to 59 political detainees set free since late April. Imprisonment of opponents however continued: courts 5 June sentenced 17 people to jail, including some to life imprisonment for allegedly belonging to outlawed organisation Muslim Brotherhood (MB); 28 June sentenced ten people to death and over 50 others to life imprisonment for supporting or carrying out MB-led attacks against security forces between 2013 and 2015; NGO Amnesty International same day decried “grossly unfair mass trial” and urged authorities to quash death sentences. In response to recent spike in jihadist attacks in Sinai Peninsula, security forces 5 June launched operation against Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) west of Rafah town and in Sheikh Zuweid region. Encounters between militants and security forces in Rafah area reportedly killed large number of SP operatives 9-10 June; three soldiers 13 June; one army colonel and two tribal militia fighters around 18 June; and seven SP operatives 19-20 June. Airstrikes in same area 12 June killed six SP operatives. Russian trade minister 16 June announced Moscow and Cairo agreed to switch to local currencies for future business transactions, thus bypassing obstacles created by recent sanctions on Russia.

Jihadist activity peaked in Sinai Peninsula as Islamic State-affiliated militants launched deadliest attack on military since 2020; economic situation remained dire. Jihadist attacks took high toll on security forces in North Sinai. Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) 7 May killed between 11 and 17 soldiers in complex attack on army post in Qantara town, west of Bir al-Abd town, marking army’s heaviest loss in single assault in two years; ISIS next day claimed responsibility. SP operatives 11 May attacked army checkpoint at entrance to Rafah town; military said seven assailants and five soldiers killed, including one officer, while SP claimed 12 soldiers dead. SP throughout month also targeted tribal militiamen affiliated with military: six Sinai Tribal Union fighters killed or wounded 1 May in ambush south of Rafah; one tribal fighter killed and several wounded 9 May in IED attack near Rafah; several killed or wounded 13 May as IEDs destroyed two militia vehicles east of Balaa village in Rafah area. Govt forces and tribal militiamen around 25 May reportedly killed several SP militants and arrested others south of Sheikh Zuweid town. Meanwhile, emergency court 29 May sentenced 2012 presidential candidate, Abdel Moneim Aboul Foutouh, to 15 years in prison for “spreading false information” and “undermining state security”; also sentenced over 20 other Islamist opponents to prison. NGO Amnesty International same day denounced “grossly unfair and politically-motivated trial”, said defendants subjected to “torture and ill-treatment” in detention. After state statistics agency 10 May announced annual urban inflation jumped to 13.1% in April, Central Bank 19 May raised interest rates citing quickest soaring of prices in three years. As part of U.S. efforts to regain centrality in Egypt’s foreign policy, particularly in context of Russia’s war in Ukraine, head of U.S. Central Command, Gen Michael “Erik” Kurilla, and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan 9 and 11 May, respectively, met with President Sisi in capital Cairo.

Fighting intensified in Sinai Peninsula, and repression of opposition activists showed no sign of abating. High levels of violence reported in Sinai since late March between Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) militants on one hand, and govt forces and allied tribal militias on the other; SP also continued to abduct civilians. Sniper fire 1 April killed one soldier in Al-Buhaira area near Bir al-Abd town. SP operatives 2-3 April killed at least two people suspected of collaborating with army in Bir al-Abd area; 8 April abducted two agricultural workers from field in Jalbana area, west of al-Arish town, and three residents of Malsaq town, Bir al-Abd region. Army and allied tribal forces 4 April killed one suspected SP militant and arrested another south of Sheikh Zuweid town; tribal militia 11 April claimed militiamen in cooperation with army had in recent days cleared certain areas around Rafah city and Sheikh Zuweid town of SP militants, killing five SP operatives in Rafah area. Five ISIS operatives reportedly killed 24 April south of Rafah in counter-terrorism operations. Exchanges of fire between suspected militants and Sinai Tribal Union fighters in Al-Muqata’a area near Sheikh Zuweid 22-25 April left at least seven killed. Gunfire 25 April targeted army patrol in same area, killing two soldiers. Meanwhile, after authorities 9 April announced death of economist and opposition party official Ayman Hadhoud, who disappeared in Feb, NGO Egyptian Organization for Human Rights 11 April called for investigation into his death. Italian court same day suspended trial of four Egyptian security officers accused of detaining and killing Italian researcher Giulio Regeni in 2016, citing Cairo’s refusal to cooperate and locate officers. In apparent reaffirmation of Turkey’s commitment to normalising relations with Egypt, senior Turkish official early April reportedly said Ankara would soon appoint ambassador to Egypt for first time in nine years.

Authorities took steps to mitigate impact of soaring wheat price; uptick in jihadist violence recorded in Sinai Peninsula. Amid disruption of wheat imports due to Russian invasion of Ukraine, govt from 11 March banned exports of key staple items for three months, 21 March imposed price cap on unsubsidised bread and throughout month announced new incentives for domestic wheat producers to increase supply. Authorities 21 March devalued currency by around 15%. International Monetary Fund 23 March said Cairo had asked for support to help weather impact of war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, G7 ambassadors to Cairo 1 March jointly called on President Sisi to vote in favour of UN resolution condemning Russian invasion; authorities 2 March complied with request. In signal that Cairo is not ready to cut ties with Moscow, Sisi and Russian President Putin 9 March held phone call to discuss bilateral cooperation. In Sinai Peninsula, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) stepped up attacks on military and pro-govt tribal militiamen. SP militants 7 March allegedly attacked army base in Al-Arish area, killing unspecified number of soldiers. SP 10 March pledged allegiance to new ISIS leader Abu al-Hassan al-Hashemi al-Qurashi. Heavy exchanges of fire reported 11-14 March between soldiers and tribal militia fighters on one hand, and suspected SP militants on the other, in Shibana and al-Barth areas south of Rafah town; up to 14 soldiers and several militiamen reportedly killed. Alleged SP militants 21 March attacked and killed four militiamen south of Rafah. SP also launched several explosive device attacks throughout month: four militiamen killed 1 and 21 March in three separate locations, several soldiers killed or wounded 11 March south west of Bir al-Abd town.

Violence persisted in Sinai Peninsula, and country’s human rights record came under international spotlight. In Sinai Peninsula, low-intensity fighting between Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) and security forces and allied militiamen continued. Pro-govt Sinai Tribal Union (STU) 4 Feb said it had killed ISIS commander in central Sinai, Abu Rawaha al-Ansari; 13 Feb said it had lost eight militiamen in clashes with SP militants in Sinai Peninsula. Explosive devices 6, 9 Feb wounded at least four civilians in Rafah area (North Sinai); 19-20 Feb killed three civilians including one child in Sheikh Zuweid area (North Sinai). Suspected SP militants 9 Feb killed one soldier in same area; 15 Feb abducted two civilians in Al-Gafgafa region (central Sinai). Meanwhile, 175 EU lawmakers 3 Feb called on UN Human Rights Council to establish monitoring and reporting mechanism to bring Egypt’s “devastating” human rights situation under global scrutiny during body’s 49th regular session 28 Feb-1 April. Ahead of 17 Feb AU-EU Summit in Belgian capital Brussels, NGO Human Rights Watch 14 Feb called on Europe not to “roll out the red carpet” for President Sisi in light of “human rights crisis unfolding under his rule”. After Addis Ababa 20 Feb announced it had begun producing electricity from Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, FM Sameh Shoukry same day accused Ethiopia of violating 2015 Declaration of Principles (see Nile Waters).

Repression of rights defenders and political activists continued while violence persisted in North Sinai. Authorities took symbolic measures in apparent bid to appease Western partners but repression continued. Authorities 8 Jan released Coptic human rights activist Ramy Kamel and Egyptian-Palestinian activist Ramy Shaath while forcing latter to abandon his Egyptian nationality; next day released 15 women who had been in pre-trial detention for two years on charges of “spreading false news” and “promoting terrorism”. Meanwhile, security forces 12 Jan arrested opposition activist Hossam Mahmoud Sallam after his Khartoum-Istanbul flight landed at Luxor airport; Istanbul-based NGO We Record next day denounced “kidnapping”. One of last remaining independent rights groups, Arabic Network for Human Rights Information, 10 Jan said it was forced to suspend its operations due to repressive laws. Group of U.S. foreign affairs experts Working Group on Egypt 22 Jan called on U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken to deny $130mn in annual security assistance (withheld from Egypt in Sept 2021) unless Cairo fully meets series of human rights conditions by 30 Jan deadline; U.S. Senator Chris Murphy 28 Jan said U.S. President Biden had decided to reprogram funds, applauded “important message”. Meanwhile, U.S. State Dept 25 Jan announced $2.5bn in arms sale to Egypt. In Sinai Peninsula, army around 9 Jan killed two suspected Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) militants in Bir al-Abd area. Military governor for North Sinai 15 Jan announced residents of villages south of Sheikh Zuweid town had returned home. Suspected ISIS militants around 19 Jan reportedly killed or wounded 13 soldiers in ambush in Joura area, south of Sheikh Zuweid. Suspected ISIS militants 25 Jan allegedly kidnapped six people in Bir al-Abd town, and explosive device hours later killed up to five soldiers in same area.

Amid repression of critics, rights groups continued to warn about recent series of laws restricting civil liberties; violence remained low in North Sinai. After President Sisi 29 Nov ratified new law giving authorities special powers to curb COVID-19 pandemic, prominent human rights defender Sherif Azer and other civil society activists in following days accused authorities of seeking alternative to state of emergency, which Sisi lifted in Oct, to maintain extraordinary powers. Several prosecutions appeared to be fast-tracked as military courts established under state of emergency continued to oversee previously referred trials. Notably, military court 20 Dec sentenced prominent civil society activist Alaa Abdel Fattah to five years in prison, and human rights lawyer Mohamed el-Baqer and blogger Mohamed “Oxygen” Ibrahim to four years imprisonment, all on charges of “spreading false news”; convictions not subject to appeal before higher court. Low-intensity guerrilla warfare continued in Sinai Peninsula. Notably, mine allegedly planted by Islamic State-affiliated Sinai Province (SP) 4 Dec killed or wounded five soldiers in Maliz area, central Sinai; suspected militants 14 Dec attacked village and killed soldier near Sheikh Zuweid town (North Sinai). Meanwhile, Sinai Tribal Union operating alongside govt forces around 1 Dec reportedly killed two militants engaged in planting dozens of explosive devices in Manjam area (central Sinai); 3 Dec killed another two near Sheikh Zuweid in operation that reportedly thwarted suicide bombing against army and police forces; late Dec launched large-scale offensive against SP in Al-Arjaa area south of Rafah town, killing two militants. Military around 5 Dec reportedly killed senior jihadist leader Mahmoud Akram al-Laham, also known as Abu Duaa, at undisclosed location in Sinai. Meanwhile, FM Sameh Shoukry 12 Dec met with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) representatives in Saudi Arabia to discuss Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam; GCC officials reportedly expressed support for Egypt’s water security concerns though final statement did not mention issue.

Rights groups accused President Sisi of replacing recently lifted state of emergency with new civil rights restrictions. After Sisi late Oct lifted nationwide state of emergency, parliament 31 Oct approved amendments to counter-terrorism law, Penal Code and public infrastructure law, de facto expanding executive and military powers. NGO Human Rights Watch 5 Nov said amendments “incorporated many emergency-law-like provisions in other laws” and demonstrated govt’s “lack of genuine commitment to ending undue restrictions on basic human rights”. Among few security incidents reported in Sinai Peninsula, Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated Sinai Province combatants around 4 Nov killed two soldiers in ambush west of Al-Arish town; 15 Nov reportedly launched rocket attack on army armoured vehicle in southern Sinai, killing two soldiers; also allegedly planted mine, which around 21 Nov killed three members of pro-govt tribal militia south of Rafah town. Egypt and Israel 7 Nov agreed to strengthen Egyptian military presence near Rafah border crossing with Gaza Strip; move amounts to amendment of 1979 peace treaty excluding Egyptian military deployment in that area. U.S. daily newspaper The Wall Street Journal 3 Nov revealed Sudan coup leader Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held secret meeting with Sisi day before 25 Oct Sudanese coup. U.S. and Egyptian officials 8-9 Nov held strategic dialogue in Washington DC, discussed human rights, water and regional security. French govt 22 Nov called for investigation after investigative website Disclose alleged Egypt misused French intelligence – intended to track jihadist militants – to kill civilians.