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CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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U.S./Russia

Diplomatic row between Moscow and Washington over Russian military build-up in Ukraine and European security more broadly escalated. As U.S. and Russia continued negotiations during month, notably in swiss city Geneva 10 Jan, Moscow continued to demand legally binding guarantees from U.S. and NATO against Ukraine’s accession to NATO and that alliance pull back forces from Eastern Europe. Tensions persisted amid growing Russian military build-up near Ukraine (see Ukraine). U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman 18 Jan warned “Russia could launch military attack at any time”; Russian armed forces 18 Jan arrived in Belarus ahead of joint military exercises in country due to run until 20 Feb. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 19 Jan said Russia could attack Ukraine “on very short notice” and warned again of tough sanctions; Moscow 19 Jan claimed it had no intention “to attack, strike or invade Ukraine”, while Head of Russian delegation to Vienna talks on military security and arms control Konstantin Gavrilov warned that “West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to ensure Russia’s security”. As Russian FM Sergey Lavrov and Blinken 21 Jan met in Geneva, Russia 21 Jan requested foreign NATO troops withdraw from Romania and Bulgaria. U.S. 24 Jan announced 8,500 soldiers in state of alert ready to be deployed on European soil and Biden same day said he would “personally sanction Russian President Putin” if Russia invades Ukraine; Kremlin next day said sanctions would not be “painful”. U.S. 26 Jan formally rejected Russia’s demand to bar Ukraine from NATO and pushed for diplomatic solution “to maintain and defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine”.

U.S./Russia

Amid continued tensions over Ukraine, U.S. and Russia prepared to begin security talks in January. Russian President Putin 1 Dec proposed negotiations on legally binding guarantees that NATO will not expand eastward. Putin 7 Dec accused NATO in phone call with U.S. President Biden of “making dangerous attempts to gain a foothold on Ukrainian territory and build up its military capabilities” near Russia’s borders; Biden next day proposed NATO-Russia meeting. Head of Russian delegation to Vienna negotiations on military security and arms control Konstantin Gavrilov 21 Dec reiterated Moscow’s determination not to allow NATO infrastructure in Ukraine and Georgia, though plans for such infrastructure not under way at time of writing. NATO Sec Gen Jens Stoltenberg 21 Dec declared openness for “meaningful dialogue”; Russian FM Sergei Lavrov same day indicated U.S.-Russia talks will take place in Jan 2022; EU and U.S. next day agreed “that any discussion about European security will happen in coordination and with participation” of EU. U.S. Assistant Sec State Karen Donfried 23 Dec expected talks to “take place in January”. Biden and Putin 30 Dec held phone call to discuss European security.

U.S./Russia

Washington and Moscow voiced concerns about hypersonic missiles; senior officials held first strategic stability dialogue meeting. Russian defence ministry 19 July reported successful launch of Zirkon hypersonic missile; U.S. Department of Defence same day called weapon “potentially destabilising” and warned that it is “compatible with nuclear weapons”. Russian embassy in Washington D.C. next day warned U.S. against deploying the as yet non-existent American hypersonic missiles in Europe, which it said would be “extremely destabilising”. U.S. Deputy Sec State Wendy Sherman and Russian deputy defence minister 28 July met in Geneva, Switzerland, for start of U.S.-Russia bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue, established following June summit between Presidents Biden and Putin; Putin’s spokesman same day said it was “very positive sign” that talks were taking place.

U.S./Russia

U.S. and Russian presidents held face-to-face summit in Geneva, agreeing to continue arms control dialogue and return ambassadors. U.S. President Biden and Russia’s President Putin 16 June met in Swiss city Geneva for first face-to-face meeting since Biden took office to discuss diverse issues, including arms control, cybersecurity, Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan and Arctic; Biden described meeting as “good and positive” while Putin said sides “will begin consultations on the entire complex of interactions on the diplomatic track”. Sole document signed by both parties during summit related to strategic stability; sides committed to “principle that there can be no winners in a nuclear war”, with bilateral dialogue on arms control set to commence in due course. Leaders also agreed to return ambassadors to their respective posts. Separately, Moscow 18 June announced it would withdraw from Open Skies Treaty – multilateral accord permitting signatories to undertake non-military reconnaissance flights over other countries – on 18 Dec, stating that U.S. formal withdrawal from treaty in Nov 2020 “grossly violated the balance of interests, rights and obligations” of signatories.

U.S./Russia

Moscow recalled its ambassador to U.S. following remarks by President Biden. U.S. President Biden 16 March said he believed Russian President Putin is “a killer” and Putin would “pay a price” for interfering in U.S. elections; Moscow next day recalled its ambassador for emergency consultations and to assess U.S.-Russian relations. In following days, Russian officials, members of ruling United Russia party, governors and members of parliament condemned Biden’s remarks.

U.S./Russia

Arms control negotiations remained deadlocked while U.S. accused Russia of major cyberattack on its govt agencies. President Putin 17 Dec emphasised commitment to “continue dialogue with the U.S.” on nuclear arms control treaty New START, which is set to elapse 5 Feb 2021, and blamed Washington for starting new arms race; U.S. same day reiterated demand to extend treaty and blamed Russian MFA for “rejecting” all meetings. U.S. officials 13 Dec reported major data breach of several U.S. govt agencies and departments, including commerce, state and treasury, as well as U.S. non-govt organisations and firms; U.S. Sec State Mike Pompeo 18 Dec directly blamed Russia for attack. U.S. State Department next day announced decision to permanently close two remaining consulates in Russia, leaving Moscow embassy as sole diplomatic representation; U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan 23 Dec blamed Moscow for closures, citing Russia’s decision to impose visa restrictions on U.S. diplomatic personnel.

U.S./Russia

U.S. President Trump 21 May confirmed U.S. will exit Open Skies arms control treaty, citing Russia’s alleged violations of agreement; Russian Deputy FM Alexander Grushko same day said withdrawal would “not only deal a blow to the foundation of European security […] but to the key security interests of the allies of the U.S.”.

U.S./Russia

Russian President Putin 3 July signed bill suspending Russia’s participation in 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) between U.S. and Russia. U.S. 1 Feb said it was suspending its obligations under INF starting 2 Feb and gave Russia six months to return to “real and verifiable” compliance before its ultimate withdrawal from INF, due 2 Aug.

U.S./Russia

U.S. suspension of 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and Russian rhetoric regarding possible deployments of new weapons marked further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations and raised concerns about future of arms control. U.S. 1 Feb said it was suspending its obligations under INF starting 2 Feb, giving Russia six months to return to “real and verifiable” compliance before U.S. ultimate withdrawal from INF. Washington earlier announced plans of withdrawal in Oct 2018, arguing Russia has been developing 9M729 missile system in violation of INF, and amid years of mutual accusations of non-compliance. President Putin 2 Feb announced Moscow would follow suit and in his 20 Feb state of the nation address promised deployment of new and powerful missiles targeting U.S. and European countries, although only in response to any U.S. deployments of intermediate-range missiles on European continent; NATO accused Russia of “unacceptable” threat and called on Russia for full compliance.

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