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The killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran has brought the Middle East to its moment of greatest peril in years. All concerned must do their utmost to avoid regional war. The most important step, besides mutual restraint, is a Gaza ceasefire.

Since October 2023, Hizbollah and Israel have been trading fire across the Lebanon-Israel border. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU and its member states can stop the conflict from escalating and restore greater stability.

Desde octubre, Hezbolá ha caminado por una delgada línea entre atacar a Israel y evitar una guerra total. El grupo no quiere ser el culpable de un conflicto que podría devastar un Líbano en crisis.

Thus far, Hizbollah and Israel have avoided a disastrous escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border as the Gaza war rages. But trouble lies ahead. Western-led mediation remains the best way to restore security to the frontier.

Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.

In this video, David Wood discusses the presidential vacuum in Lebanon and how it's affecting the country's ability to deal with its other compounding crises.

With tensions rising along the Israeli-Lebanese border, the UN peacekeeping force stationed in the area has arguably never been more important. With the mandate up for renewal, the UN Security Council and troop-contributing countries should reassert their backing for the mission in the strongest terms.

In this video, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Lebanon, David Wood, warns that tensions between Hizbollah and Israel risk ending the relative calm of the past seventeen years.

The CrisisWatch Digest Lebanon offers a monthly one-page snapshot of conflict-related country trends in a clear, accessible format, using a map of the region to pinpoint developments.

The erosion of Lebanese political institutions, which has already disabled the presidency and the cabinet, now threatens hundreds of municipalities. Amid its crippling economic crisis, Lebanon can ill afford to lose one of the last vestiges of state functionality.