Nigeria is confronted by multiple security challenges, notably the resilient Boko Haram Islamist insurgency in the north east, long-running discontent and militancy in the Niger Delta, increasing violence between herders and farming communities spreading from the central belt southward, and separatist Biafra agitation in the Igbo south east. Violence, particularly by the Boko Haram insurgency, has displaced more than two million people, created a massive humanitarian crisis, and prompted the rise of civilian vigilante self-defence groups that pose new policy dilemmas and possible security risks. Crisis Group seeks to help the Nigerian government by shedding new light on the country’s security challenges, de-escalating risks and tension, and encouraging regional and gender-specific approaches toward ending the violence durably.
Vigilante groups have been successful in providing local security. But subcontracting security functions to vigilante groups for counter-insurgency purposes is a dangerous option for fragile African states. African leaders should set clear objectives and mandates when enlisting vigilantes and invest in disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programs.
Boko Haram (BH) continued attacks in north east and Fulani herders sacked villages in Adamawa state in revenge for Nov killings, while mounting herder-farmer tensions could lead to rise in violence in Jan following introduction of grazing ban in Taraba state planned for 1 Jan. Military 16 Dec said it had stepped up attacks on BH around Lake Chad early Dec, killing many and capturing 220. Twin suicide bombings at market in Biu, Borno state 2 Dec killed at least fifteen. Soldiers repelled BH attack on Mainok village on Maiduguri-Damaturu road in Borno state 13 Dec. Insurgents attacked military-escorted Word Food Programme convoy 16 Dec killing at least four people; army reported six insurgents killed. Insurgents attacked outskirts of Maiduguri, Borno state 25 Dec killing four civilians, repelled by troops. Police 7 Dec reported indications that BH plotting to bomb federal capital Abuja and six states (Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa and Yobe). Clashes reported between main BH factions loyal to Shekau and Barnawi respectively between Mafa and Dikwa towns, Borno state from 8 Dec; Shekau faction reportedly lost ground. After massacre of Fulani community members, mainly children, in Adamawa state late Nov, Fulani ransacked five ethnic Bachama villages in Demsa Local Govt Area, Adamawa state 4 Dec, burning down two; over 100 people reportedly killed, some allegedly by air force trying to disperse fighters. Presidency began consultations with relevant groups to end violence: VP Osinbajo 11 Dec met Fulani leaders, amid fears violence could escalate with planned 1 Jan introduction of grazing ban in Taraba state. Illegal miners resisted police attempts to dislodge them from mining site in Mayo Sine area, Taraba state 14 Dec, several reportedly killed. Intercommunal clash, reportedly reprisal for attack in Sept, in Ogobia, Benue state, left at least four dead. In Kaduna state, gunmen attacked Nindem village 22 Dec, killed four people; attacked nearby Ungwan Mailafiya village 24 Dec, killed six.
Propelled by desertification, insecurity and the loss of grazing land to expanding settlements, the southward migration of Nigeria’s herders is causing violent competition over land with local farmers. To prevent the crisis from escalating, the government should strengthen security for herders and farmers, implement conflict resolution mechanisms and establish grazing reserves.
Five million people are hit by the humanitarian fallout of the Boko Haram insurgency. Beyond ending the war, this briefing, the last of four examining famine threats in Nigeria, Yemen, South Sudan and Somalia, urges donors to fund their UN aid pledges in full and the Nigerian government to step up relief for its citizens.
Regional armies in the Lake Chad basin deploy vigilantes to sharpen campaigns against Boko Haram insurgents. But using these militias creates risks as combatants turn to communal violence and organised crime. Over the long term they must be disbanded or regulated.
Women have suffered violence and abuse by Boko Haram, but they are not only victims: some joined the jihadists voluntarily, others fight the insurgency, or work in relief and reconciliation. Women’s experiences should inform policies to tackle the insurgency, and facilitate their contribution to peace.
Nigeria’s military is in distress. President Muhammadu Buhari’s over-due reforms aren’t yet enough to turn an under-resourced, over-stretched and corrupt army back into a professional force. A complete overhaul is needed, including accountability for human rights abuses, if Nigerians are not to be left at the mercy of Boko Haram and other armed groups.
In the last five years we've had a huge increase in the number of incidents [in Nigeria], the number of casualties and the bitterness that goes with it. In many areas it's like a no man's land.
The decision to start the trials [in Nigeria of more than 1,600 people suspected of ties with Boko Haram] is a response to persistent complaints by local and international human rights groups over thousands of [detained] persons.
[The borderlands between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso are] becoming a new permanent hotbed of violence. This shows the level of organisation of these [insurgent] groups and also their confidence.
[The Nigerian government] needs to reverse the bad governance, economic desperation and social hopelessness that push so many youths to radical ideologues.
[The youth in Nigeria's Maiduguri] formed vigilante groups so they could isolate and eliminate Boko Haram members and also demonstrate they were not complicit in the group's attacks and atrocities.
The biggest challenge [for President Buhari] would be to calm nerves and curb divisions, to rally Nigerians around a common vision for the country and bring some urgency towards pursuing that vision.
Crisis Group’s second update to our Watch List 2017 includes entries on Nigeria, Qatar, Thailand and Venezuela. These early-warning publications identify conflict situations in which prompt action by the European Union and its member states would generate stronger prospects for peace.
While Nigeria confronts the humanitarian fallout of the ongoing Boko Haram insurgency and simmering separatism in the South East, crucial reforms have been stalled. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – Second Update early warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to encourage the government to prioritise engagement with regional leaders and other stakeholders.
Many Igbo feel politically and economically marginalised, and the government’s hardline stance is not helping.
Originally published in African Arguments
Despite suffering significant blows in Syria and Iraq, jihadist movements across the Middle East, North Africa and Lake Chad regions continue to pose significant challenges. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2017 – First Update early-warning report for European policy makers, Crisis Group urges the European Union and its member states to prioritise conflict prevention at the heart of their counter-terrorism policy and continue investment in vulnerable states.
For the first time in three decades, four countries, driven by war, verge on famine. Over coming weeks, Crisis Group will publish special briefings on Yemen, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria. Each conflict requires tailored response; all need increased aid and efforts to end the violence.