Golan Heights and South/West Syria
Golan Heights and South/West Syria
Flashpoint / Global

Golan Heights and South/West Syria

I. Why it Matters

Israel’s primary interest in Syria is to prevent a strategic Iranian military presence across Syria, including Iranian construction of military infrastructure and cultivation of local partner forces. Since late 2017 it has targeted Iranian assets in Syria at an increasing pace. These attacks have drawn retaliation, including by Iran, creating the risk that a spiral of escalation will lead to open war between Israel and Iran, which could spill over into Lebanon. In Syria’s south west specifically, Israel has sought to keep Iranian and Iranian-linked forces away from the Golan armistice line, and the risk of Israeli military strikes triggering a broader escalation stands out as the most consequential uncertainty in an attempt by the Assad regime to retake the area from rebel groups.

II. Recent Developments

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    IR-US TL Bagheri in Syria
    The chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, Mohammad Bagheri visits Syria, 21 October 2017 TASNIM
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III. Background

Iranian forces and Hizbollah have fought in Syria in support of the Assad regime since 2012. Israel viewed these developments by its regional adversaries with concern, particularly since Russia’s 2015 military intervention turned the war in the Syrian regime’s favour. The Israeli leadership is convinced that this will tilt the balance of power in the entire region in Iran’s favour, and could alter the character of the strategic threats it is facing for the worse.

To minimise the threat that Syria will serve as a conduit for Iran to upgrade the military capacities of Hizbollah, Israel has carried out more than 100 strikes on convoys and warehouses serving Hizbollah’s Syrian supply lines. Preventing the delivery of precision-guided missiles to the Shiite movement appears to have high priority. Hizbollah has generally played down the effectiveness of these attacks, and largely refrained from direct retaliation.

Since late 2017, Israel has also launched, at an increasing pace, strikes against suspected Iranian assets in Syria that appear to aim at disrupting the build-up of Iranian military infrastructure. The most significant Israeli operation occurred on 10 May, when it carried out “Operation House of Cards” against tens of purported Iranian facilities across Syria. The operation came in response to what Israel claimed was a barrage of missiles launched by Iranian forces at military installations in the Israeli-occupied Golan, and was later described in media reporting as retaliation by Syria for earlier Israeli strikes against Madinat Baath.

Threats emerging from Iran-supported militias near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights are a particular concern for Israel. A south-western ceasefire, negotiated and announced by the U.S., Russia and Jordan, went into effect in July 2017, the first step towards a broader de-escalation agreement. A month later, the three states agreed to establish the “Amman Monitoring Centre” in Jordan to jointly supervise the ceasefire. On 8 November, the three concluded a memorandum formalising the deal’s terms (though neither the original ceasefire agreement nor subsequent memorandum has been made public). The de-escalation silenced the Syrian war’s southern front, freezing the south west’s frontlines and establishing a buffer zone to be free of “foreign forces and foreign fighters”. Within the de-escalation zone, the buffer is supposed to extend five kilometres from the current line of contact between the Syrian regime and opposition forces and ten kilometres from the Jordanian border and armistice line demarcating the Israeli-occupied Golan; the parties to the de-escalation discussed expanding the five-kilometre buffer to 20 kilometres, but arrangements were never finalised. By mid-2018, the ceasefire agreement was in danger of collapse, as Syrian military forces massed on the edges of opposition-held areas in preparation for an offensive to retake them. Yet the regime’s ambition has been tempered by the risk of triggering an Israeli response and prospects for a negotiated resolution.

Map of the Area of Separation CRISISGROUP/Mike Shand

The view from the southern suburbs of Beirut is that Hizbollah is in Syria at the invitation of the legitimate Syrian government, and that the organisation defers to Syrian interests when calibrating its responses to Israeli attacks there. The movement is aware that an escalatory cycle in Syria may spill over to engulf Lebanon. Deflecting agency to the Syrian government allows it to defer retaliation for Israeli attacks on its assets that could initiate such a cycle, without such inaction causing a significant erosion of its own deterrence. To underline that this capacity still exists and should not be tested, Hizbollah has retaliated against direct Israeli attacks on its assets in Syria with operations in the Israeli-occupied Sheba farms area, which it considers Lebanese territory, thus keeping retaliation at a scope and in an area for which international mediation mechanisms work reliably. Beyond that, the movement warns Israel against the notion of “limited wars”, asserting that the consequences of offensive action cannot be reliably calculated, without however laying down explicit red lines beyond which it will act. By assuming such a posture of “strategic vagueness”, Hizbollah seeks to keep the Israeli leadership guessing about the margin for offensive action, and deter it from pushing to expand it.

The view from Moscow is that while saying it wishes to see all foreign forces leave Syria, Russia nevertheless has defended Syria’s right, as a sovereign state, to invite foreign forces into its territory. At the same time, it acknowledges Israeli security concerns regarding the presence and possible entrenchment of Iranian and Iran-affiliated forces in Syria. Russia has thus far turned a blind eye to Israeli airstrikes against targets Israel sees as part of an Iranian buildup, despite its effective control over most of Syria’s airspace by means of its own air force deployment and the advanced air defence systems it operates. Reportedly, Moscow has instead attempted to moderate Israeli actions through direct communications with the Israeli government, and has also relayed Israeli messages to the Iranian leadership to help contain exchanges of fire, such as occurred on 9-10 May 2018. On the other hand, Russian warnings against the destabilizing effects of Israeli attacks have become more outspoken as the latter acquired a higher profile, took direct aim at Iranian assets, and appeared to occur in tacit cooperation with the U.S., in particular in early April 2018. The announcement that Moscow may deliver the S-300 air defence system to the Syrian regime may be read as an attempt to deter Israel from pushing too far. Moscow is aware that its aim to stabilize the Syrian regime and the considerable investments it has made to this end will be compromised if Syria were to turn into a battleground between Israel and Iran.

The views from Washington and Tel Aviv are essentially the same concerning the Iranian presence in Syria, which both consider nefarious. Washington asserts that “our steadfast ally has asserted the sovereign right of self-defence” in response to Iranian provocations, and shares intelligence on Iranian activity in Syria with Israel. At the same time, until recently Israel expressed frustration at what it considered Washington’s indifference towards the strategic implications it sees in the Iranian entrenchment. Contradictory messages from different levels of the U.S. administration further muddle the picture regarding its long-term strategy in Syria. For its part, Israel has vowed to prevent Iran from turning Syria into a launching pad for attacks against its territory, and to act pre-emptively or in retaliation directly against Iran in the event of such attacks, and appears determined to roll back the advances that Tehran has already made. Overall, Israeli officials assess that Iran’s upper hand in Syria will nourish the self-confidence of Assad, Hizbollah, Hamas and other armed groups when confronting Israel from Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank or Gaza, and facilitate Iranian retaliatory strikes against its territory, thus negating the strategic advantage of Israel’s long-range aerial capacities.

The view from Tehran is that its alliance with Syria is among the oldest and most sustainable in the region. Preserving Syria’s geostrategic orientation as part of its axis of resistance is an objective universally shared among Iranian leaders. It serves as a centrepiece of its strategy of “forward defence” against suspected U.S. designs for regime change in Tehran, and against a return to the containment strategies applied by changing U.S. administrations in the past. Famously, a confidant of supreme leader Khamenei opined that “if we lose Syria, we won’t be able to hold Tehran.” Iranian threat perceptions were reconfirmed by the regional strategy announced by U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo in May 2018, and are further nourished by Israel stepping up its strikes against suspected Iranian assets in Syria before and after Trump’s scrapping of the JCPOA. Iran has at times denied that it was exposed to attacks, and at others threatened retaliation. Observers believe that at some point, Iran will feel compelled to retaliate to maintain its deterrence vis-à-vis Israel, and that retaliation may have been deferred until after fate of the 2015 nuclear agreement is determined, so as not to provide further pretext. The exchange of fire on May 10 may have set a pattern for a future logic of retaliation in the Golan to deter Israeli action across Syria, which would increase the danger of escalation significantly.

 

Lebanese Hezbollah supporters carry the coffin of militant Jihad Mughniyeh during his funeral in a southern Beirut suburb,19 January 2015 AFP PHOTO /JOSEPH EID

IV. Analysis

A Perilous Contestation: The strategic confrontation between Iran and Israel in Syria matches two adversaries with highly asymmetrical mutual deterrence. On the one hand, Israel has the capacity to conduct long-range airstrikes against in Syrian or Iranian territory. On the other hand, Iran’s ally Hizbollah has built up a large arsenal of missiles, up to 150,000 by Israeli estimates, that can reach most of Israel’s territory and which may be able to overwhelm its defence system by sheer force of numbers and due to the short launching distance. It is unclear whether Iran’s own arsenal of ballistic missiles constitute a serious challenge to Israel’s advanced missile defence systems.

Neither side appears to be interested in an all-out confrontation at present, even as the scale and scope of the Israeli strikes against Iran and Iran-backed forces has increased. This suggests an intermediate phase of mutual probing by means of tit-for-tat strikes, though the danger of an inadvertent escalation continues to rise.

The first Israeli aerial strike of the war, which began in 2011, came in January 2013. Pre-January 2017 data: https://militaryedge.org/analysis-articles/tracker-israeli-strikes-syria. Data from 2017/2018 tracked by Crisis Group

Iran’s Bigger Picture: Reports in late May 2018 suggested an emerging understanding between Israel and Russia by which Israel would acquiesce to the Syrian government’s return to the south west in exchange for a Russian commitment to distance Iran and Hizbollah from the Golan armistice line and call for the exit of all foreign forces from Syria. Israel would also retain the freedom to strike Iranian-linked targets across Syrian territory without Russian interference. Tehran, along with Damascus and Moscow, appears to understand Israel’s red lines: Iranian officials have said Iran has no role in operations in the south and support Russian efforts to restore Syrian military control of Syria’s southern border.

Yet while Iran may look like the loser in the reported international agreement on the south, it may also be protecting its long-term presence in the rest of Syria. Even as Iranian officials reject participation in a future southern offensive, they equally reject the idea of a total Iranian withdrawal from Syria and have emphasised that their presence in Syria is at the government’s invitation, and therefore legal. Nor does acquiescence to a regime request that Iran stay out of the south preclude a future movement by Iran and/or Iran-backed groups into the area.

Limited Response to Douma. On the evening of 7 April 2018, the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Douma was subjected to an apparent chemical weapons attack. Retaliatory military strikes by the U.S. and its Western allies grew increasingly likely after Russia and the P3 - the U.S., the United Kingdom, and France - failed to agree on a mechanism at the Security Council, and were launched against targets in Damascus and Homs in the early hours of 14 April (Syrian time). President Trump declared that "the purpose of our action... is to establish a strong deterrent against the production, spread and use of chemical weapons", while the secretary of defence, Jim Mattis, described the operation as "a one-time shot". By keeping the strikes limited in duration and narrow in purpose, the U.S. and its allies likely wanted to avoid an unintended escalation; Russian officials confirmed that their air defences in Syria were not engaged during the operation. However, President Trump left open the possibility of future action, stating that "the combined American, British and French response to these atrocities will integrate all instruments of our national power: military, economic and diplomatic. We are prepared to sustain this response until the Syrian regime stops its use of prohibited chemical agents". 

Pentagon briefing slide on U.S./France/UK strikes in Syria, 14 April 2018 U.S. Dept of Defense Twitter

V. Scenarios and Recommendations

Escalation Scenarios: The theatre for an Iranian response against Israel is the area adjacent to the occupied Golan in Syria’s south west. Rather than use fixed bases that offer easy targets for Israeli retaliatory or pre-emptive strikes, Iran may use proxies who resort to short- and medium-range missile batteries geared to attack Israeli military positions in the occupied Golan in response to Israeli strikes against it elsewhere in Syria. Local rebels claim to have broken up Hizbollah cells, including a rocket-launching cell in the town of Jasem. Strikes that intentionally or inadvertently affect Israeli settlements in the Golan and claim civilian casualties would create pressure on the Israeli leadership for a strong military response. In such a case, Israel may feel compelled to direct strikes directly against Iran, or Hizbollah’s most advanced missile capacities, to re-establish its deterrence. This is liable to trigger another war between Israel and the Shiite movement, causing casualties and destruction on both sides, though disproportionately more in Lebanon.

Lowering the Heat: Israel and Iran’s low-grade tit-for-tat conflict looks set to continue, inside Syria and across the region, but a fight for Syria’s south west does not need to be the spark that ignites an open war. The basis for a mostly non-violent, negotiated resolution exists, whereby the three de-escalation guarantors (and, indirectly, Israel and the Syrian regime) reach an agreement on the conditional return of the Syrian state to the area unaccompanied by Iran-backed militias. Rather than allow the situation to drift, the U.S. and its allies need to seize the moment and use whatever time is left to work out such an arrangement.

Moscow’s Role? Russia has been acting as an ad hoc mediator, yet it is not clear whether it would be able to stem an accelerated chain of escalation involving Israel, Iran and Hizbollah. Russia should be encouraged to institutionalize its role though a protocol that requires, perhaps informally, both sides to seek its mediation ahead of retaliatory moves. Since strikes at Israeli civilians carry the highest risk of escalation, an arrangement that explicitly seeks to pre-empt civilian casualties on both sides appears especially urgent, in addition to its intrinsic value. The 1996 “April Understanding” that established ground rules for the Israel-Hizbollah conflict in occupied southern Lebanon, in particular the parts referring to the protection of civilians, may provide an attractive model. Russia should also dissuade its ally in Damascus from launching a military offensive in the south pending the outcome of multi-sided negotiations.

PM of Israel Twitter

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