Briefing 105 / Asia 27 May 2010 3 minutes 缅甸大选 Share Facebook Twitter Email Linkedin Whatsapp Save Print Download PDF Also available in English Chinese, Simplified English 概述 缅甸不久将要举行二十年来的第一次大选。但其2010年公布的《政党注册法》设置了严格的限制条款,禁止任何在监狱服刑人员加入政党,这就意味着除非缅甸政府近期内释放被监禁的反对党人士,否则他们将没有资格参选。反对党领袖昂山素季目前正处于缓刑期间被软禁在家,因此她也可能被剥夺竞选资格。素季对《政党注册法》进行了谴责。她所领导的全国民主联盟决定不参加选举,因此失去了合法注册的资格。缅甸的新宪法及其排斥异己的选举程序引发了国际社会的许多批评。虽然此次大选值得批评,但它仍有可能带来政治变革,引入新一代领导人,因此此次选举可能是整整一个时代以来为缅甸的未来带来转机的最好机会。 在经历了疑云密布的立宪过程后,缅甸新宪法于2008年出台,将指导今年的大选程序,并于选举结束后全面生效。根据新宪法,联邦和省级立法部门中四分之一的席位将预留给军方,新政府中将有一个新的国防与安全委员会,三军统帅将同时掌控该委员会和其它重要的安全部门,并享有其它特殊权力。总体来说,新宪法将给予军方相当的自主权和政治力量,从而进一步巩固军方的势力。 目前看来,缅甸当局不会顾及外界的批评并照常推行选举。但观察人士不应该因为选举程序存在问题而低估它的重要性。选举的结果及宪法的实施将对缅甸的政治格局产生长期深远的影响,并将决定缅甸长期停滞不前的社会、经济和政治改革是否会重获生机。因此,了解大选可能引发的政治格局重组意义重大。 丹瑞大将和貌埃上在大选后将让位给新一代军事统领。虽然下台后的老将仍会有举足轻重的影响力,但大权将掌握在新人手中。在新的政治结构下,任何人都不太可能像丹瑞在近几年一样独揽大权。缅甸已经在军政府统治下度过了半个世纪,现在政府正朝着平民化和多元化的方向迈步,虽然步伐并不坚定,尽管过程存在缺陷,国际社会固然应该对这一尝试作出应有的批评,同时也应该避免完全否定其积极意义。 以上是危机组织2009年8月报告《缅甸:大选将至》的中心思想。这些论点在今天仍有意义。该简报将对3月颁布的缅甸选举法作出分析,提供其它最新局势发展信息,列出选举后新宪法体系生效的时间表,并说明各级立法机构的结构和初期职责。简报还将分析大选对民族冲突的影响,其结论是停战地区仍有可能重燃战火,值得国际社会关注,但总体来说开战可能性不大。本文还将简要分析缅甸政府最近大量抛售国有资产的动机和后果。这一行为的部分原因在于当权者对大选后继续获取经济利益的前景不甚确定。本文认为这一事态对缅甸政治经济的影响可能会超过选举的意义,军方可从中获取大量预算外资金,从而更有效地利用宪法提供的自主权和政治力量。 新的选举法和1990年选举法大体相同。老法案中部分法规保障了当年计票过程的基本公正,而新法案继承了这些条款。新老法案最大的区别在于新的《政党注册法》限制性极强。以上迹象表明,本届选举将会和1990年一样:竞选过程受到严格控制,缺乏自由,但大选日投票过程很可能在基本公正的环境中进行。对缅甸国内的相关各方及国际社会来说,这样的局势下机会与挑战并存。 雅加达/布鲁塞尔,2010年5月27日 Download pdf to continue reading the full report Overview Myanmar will shortly hold its first elections in twenty years. Given the restrictive provisions of the 2010 Political Parties Registration Law that bar anyone serving a prison term from membership in a political party, many imprisoned dissidents will be excluded from the process, unless they are released in the near future. Aung San Suu Kyi – whose suspended sentence and house arrest possibly exclude her also – has condemned the legislation, and her National League for Democracy (NLD) has decided not to participate and has, therefore, lost its status as a legally-registered party. There has rightly been much international criticism of the new constitution and of the fact that the elections will not be inclusive, but the political and generational shift that they will bring about may represent the best opportunity in a generation to influence the future direction of the country. The balloting will take place in the framework of the new constitution, adopted under highly questionable circumstances in 2008. That document, which will come into force following the elections, will entrench the military’s power. It gives the institution significant autonomy, as well as considerable political influence, by reserving a quarter of the seats in national and regional legislatures for it and creating a powerful new national defence and security council controlled by the commander-in-chief, who also receives control of key security ministries and other extraordinary powers. It seems very likely that the vote will go ahead without any moves by the regime to address concerns. At the same time, the problematic nature of the process should not lead observers to underestimate its significance. The elections and the constitution they will bring into force will define the political landscape for years to come and will influence what opportunities there are to push for long-overdue social, economic and political reforms in Myanmar. An understanding of the political dynamics they will create is, therefore, vital. It is clear that the top leaders, Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye, will step aside after the elections, making way for a younger generation of military officers. Although the old guard may continue to wield significant influence behind the scenes, the reins of power will be in new hands, and the new political structures make it unlikely that any single individual will be able to dominate decision-making in the way that Than Shwe has in recent years. Myanmar has been under military rule for half a century. The attempts by the regime to introduce a more civilian and plural character to governance, however tentative and flawed they may be, should be critiqued but not dismissed. These were the messages of Crisis Group’s August 2009 report, Myanmar: Towards the Elections, and they continue to be valid. This briefing updates recent developments, including an analysis of the electoral legislation issued in March. It provides a timeline for the implementation of the new constitutional structures after election day, including the formation and initial functioning of the new legislatures. It also examines the critical question of the impact on the ethnic conflict and concludes that renewed fighting in areas where ceasefires currently hold should be of concern but remains on balance unlikely. A brief assessment of the recent mass sell-off of public assets, which was driven in part by the uncertainty of post-election rent-seeking opportunities, suggests that this could have greater impact on the political economy than the elections themselves, by providing significant off-budget resources that will help the army take advantage of the considerable autonomy and political influence written into the constitution for it. The electoral legislation is in most respects almost identical to the laws governing the 1990 poll, including provisions that led to a broadly fair count. The most significant departures are highly restrictive provisions in the Political Parties Registration Law. This suggests strongly that, as in 1990, the elections will be characterised by a campaigning period that is highly controlled and far from free, but that the voting on election day may well be relatively fair. Such a scenario presents important challenges, as well as opportunities, to domestic stakeholders and to the international community. Jakarta/Brussels, 27 May 2010 Related Tags More for you Report / Asia 分裂中:缅甸若开邦之战 Also available in Also available in English, Bengali, Burmese and other languages Op-Ed / Asia Myanmar Is Fragmenting—but Not Falling Apart Originally published in Foreign Affairs