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The Philippines’ Dilemma: How to Manage Tensions in the South China Sea
The Philippines’ Dilemma: How to Manage Tensions in the South China Sea
Table of Contents
  1. Principal Findings
  2. Executive Summary
  3. Introduction
  4. Reefs and Ruptures
    1. The Philippine Claim over Time
    2. The 2016 Arbitration Award
  5. Enter Duterte
    1. The Pivot to China
    2. A Quiet Sea?
    3. Geopolitics Come Back to the Fore
  6. Manila’s Approach to Foreign Policy under Duterte: Pillars and Tensions
    1. The President
    2. The Diplomats
    3. The Military
    4. Other Security Actors
    5. Political and Economic Elites
    6. Public Opinion
  7. Substantive Issues
    1. Territorial Disputes
      1. Scarborough Shoal
      2. The Spratlys
    2. Declining Fish Stocks
    3. Oil and Gas
  8. Beyond the Status Quo: Options for a Maritime State
    1. Dealing with Dilemmas
    2. Risk Management Mechanisms
    3. Using Minilaterals to Fill Governance Gaps
    4. Calibrate the Code of Conduct
    5. Keeping China in the Loop
  9. Conclusion
  10. Appendix A: Map of the South China Sea
  11. Appendix B: Map of the Spratly Islands
  12. Appendix C: Philippine Presidents and the South China Sea (since 1998)
  13. Appendix D: Recommendations
A Philippine coast guard ship (R) sails past a Chinese coastguard ship during an joint search and rescue exercise between Philippine and US coastguards near Scarborough shoal, in the South China Sea on 14 May 2019. Ted Aljibe / AFP
Report 316 / Asia

The Philippines’ Dilemma: How to Manage Tensions in the South China Sea

The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.