CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Japan’s calls for resolute defence of disputed islands in East China Sea, China maintained heavy maritime presence in area. Japanese foreign ministry 16 Sept announced it lodged formal protest with China over 30 Aug appearance of seven Chinese coast guard vessels in contiguous zone of disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, with ships approaching five Japanese fishing vessels; Japanese Coast Guard called event “extremely serious”, saying it was largest number of ships in area since 2016; unconfirmed reports indicated Chinese coast guard ship rammed Japanese coast guard vessel. Separately, at least 91 Chinese coast guard vessels entered contiguous zone of disputed islands during month, while four entered territorial waters. Elsewhere, Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force 3 Sept observed Chinese naval flotilla in Miyako Strait, which Chinese commentators described as warning to Japan and Taiwan, and Japanese defence ministry 12 Sept reported Chinese submarine in contiguous zones of its southern islands. Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force 15 Sept launched largest military exercise since 1993, with 100,000 personnel simulating defence of south-western Japan. Japanese Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi 16 Sept said Japan has to demonstrate its resolute defence of Diaoyu/Senkaku islands with “greater number of Japanese coast guard vessels than that of China”. Joint statement from first in-person summit of “Quad” leaders (U.S., Australia, India and Japan) 24 Sept noted need to “meet challenges to the maritime rules-based order” in East China Sea. Former Japanese FM Fumio Kishida 29 Sept won party leadership election and is set to become next PM; Kishida same day declared intention to pursue “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
Tokyo linked for first time stability in Taiwan Strait to Japan’s security, while tensions with China over disputed islands in East China Sea continued. In notable shift in public tone, several Japanese officials openly expressed support for Taiwan and tied Japan’s security to stability in Taiwan Strait throughout month. After Japanese deputy defence minister late June called Taiwan “democratic country” during U.S. think-tank event, remarks which China 30 June called “erroneous”, Japanese Deputy PM Tarō Asō 6 July suggested Tokyo would join U.S. in defence of Taiwan in event of attack on Taiwan; China 6 July called comments “extremely wrong and dangerous”. In Defence White Paper, Japan 13 July linked stability in Taiwan Strait to Japan’s security for first time and emphasised concerns over China’s actions in East China Sea; China called paper gross interference in internal affairs. Meanwhile, U.S. and Japanese military forces 1 July conducted exercises on Japan’s Amami Ōshima island. Chinese navy 17-21 July conducted live-fire exercise in East China Sea, alongside exercises in Yellow Sea, Bohai Strait, and off coasts of China’s Fujian and Guangdong provinces. As of 28 July, 80 Chinese vessels entered into contiguous zone around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and ten Chinese vessels entered into territorial Japan’s waters during month.
Amid ongoing Japan-China tensions, Tokyo engaged in diplomatic tour to build common position on maritime threats in East and South China Seas. Regionally, Japanese Defence Minister jointly with Filipino Defence Minister 2 June expressed concerns over tensions in East and South China Seas and Chinese coast guard law. Japan and Australia 9 June also raised concerns over tensions in East and South China Seas and Chinese coast guard law as well as issue of peace and stability in Taiwan Strait; in response, Chinese officials same day said statement was malicious slander. Japan along with G7 leaders 13 June jointly confirmed concerns over tensions in East and South China Seas. At regional body ASEAN’s Defence Ministers Meeting Plus, Japan 16 June stressed importance of peace and stability across Taiwan Strait and called China’s coast guard law problematic in regard to international law. Meanwhile, Japanese Coast Guard 5 June reported that Chinese Coast Guard vessels sailed through contiguous areas around disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands for 112th day straight, setting new record, while 16 Chinese vessels entered territorial waters during month. Notably, two Chinese vessels entered and stayed in territorial waters for 42 hours between 20-21 June, longest duration so far this year. Four Chinese vessels 26 June entered territorial waters, reportedly tried to approach Japanese fishing boats before Japanese Coast Guard warned vessels away.
Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea. At foreign minister G7 meeting in UK, Japanese FM Motegi 4 May raised “grave concerns” over Chinese attempts to change status quo in East and South China Seas. Defence Minister Kishi 20 May said Japan must increase defence capabilities, citing China’s increased capabilities. Draft Japanese defence white paper 13 May referred to Chinese patrols in zone around Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands as “violation of international law” and stated that stability of Taiwan Strait was important to Japan’s security; in response, China 14 May lodged diplomatic complaint. Japanese govt identified 104 Chinese coast guard vessels in contiguous zone and ten in territorial sea of Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands during month; Japan 16 May reported three Chinese navy vessels sailing through Miyako Strait. Japanese, U.S. and French military forces 11-17 May attended first joint exercise on Japanese territory; Australia 15 May participated in expanded naval exercise in East China Sea.
Tensions continued between Japan and China over disputed island chain in East China Sea as U.S. reaffirmed its support for Tokyo. Following tensions in Feb over new Chinese Coast Guard Law,Chinese defence ministry 1 March defended its coast guard activities in area near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in East China Sea and urged Japan not to take “dangerous actions that may complicate” situation in area; Japanese Defence Minister Kishi Nobuo 2 March told media that such activities are unacceptable as islands are part of Japanese territory. Chinese defence ministry 2 March confirmed that Beijing and Tokyo have expanded their military hotlines. Two Chinese coast guard ships 29 March entered Japanese waters around Senkaku Islands, prompting Tokyo to lodge protest with Bejing. U.S. Sec Defence Lloyd Austin and Sec State Antony Blinken 15-17 March visited Japan and 16 March met with FM Toshimitsu Motegi and Defence Minister Kishi in Japanese capital Tokyo to discuss China’s “destabilising actions” in South and East China Seas; Blinken same day warned that U.S. “will push back if necessary, when China uses coercion or aggression to get its way"; Kishi and Austin also reached agreement to hold joint exercises between Japanese Self-Defence Forces and U.S. military in preparation for contingencies involving Senkaku Islands. In response, Chinese MFA called joint statement “malicious attack” and “gross interference in China’s internal affairs.” Tokyo and Indonesia 30 March signed deal to bolster security ties; Motegi said parties “exchanged views on the situation in the East and South China seas” and “shared serious concern about[…]unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force”. Municipal govt of Ishigaki in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture, which has jurisdiction over Senkaku Islands, 16 March confirmed it had applied to central govt for approval to install signposts on islands with newly chosen district name “Tonoshiro Senkaku”.
Tensions continued between Japan and China over contested island chain in East China Sea. Japan’s coast guard 13 Jan reported four Chinese ships temporarily entered Japanese territorial waters near disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi 14 Jan held online meeting with UK counterpart Ben Wallace to discuss regional issues; both leaders agreed to “strongly oppose” unilateral changes to status quo in East China Sea through force, and Kishi welcomed PM Johnson’s Nov announcement to deploy carrier strike group led by UK’s flagship HMS Queen Elizabeth to region in 2021. Incoming Japanese Ambassador to China Hideo Tarumi 20 Jan said Tokyo and Beijing should focus on fighting COVID-19 before holding high-level talks. Chinese govt 22 Jan passed Coast Guard Law allowing coast guard to use “all necessary means” to stop or prevent threats from foreign vessels to safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and maritime rights. New U.S. Sec Def Lloyd Austin 24 Jan had first telephone call with Kishi during which he reaffirmed that Article 5 of U.S.-Japan security treaty, which stipulates U.S. defence obligations to Japan, covers Senkaku/Diaoyuislands; China 28 Jan responded that islands are “China's inherent territory”.
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